Profit of £4.58 to a £1 stake
Success rate 57% (12/21)
A decent entry to the tipping world, even if I say so myself. Fingers crossed we can kick on in 2008!
Monday, December 31, 2007
Friday, December 21, 2007
Racing
Just the horses today and a nil return yesterday!
1.20 Uttoxeter French Leave 25/1 each way (LOST +4.36 - showed well but couldn't go with the pace in last half mile. May come on for the run)
Victor Dartnall has won this race twice in the last four years and has a 43% strike rate at Uttoxeter. Breeding suggests a decent hurdler is not out the question, so worth a small each way.
2.15 Ascot Hobbs Hill 4/9 (WON +4.58 - straightforward win after main rivals pulled out but at 2/11 noone ever gets rich!)
Hobbs Hill looks too good fr these and AP has won this race 3 times in the last 6 years. If Ascot escapes the frost, then expect that to become 4 from 7.
1.20 Uttoxeter French Leave 25/1 each way (LOST +4.36 - showed well but couldn't go with the pace in last half mile. May come on for the run)
Victor Dartnall has won this race twice in the last four years and has a 43% strike rate at Uttoxeter. Breeding suggests a decent hurdler is not out the question, so worth a small each way.
2.15 Ascot Hobbs Hill 4/9 (WON +4.58 - straightforward win after main rivals pulled out but at 2/11 noone ever gets rich!)
Hobbs Hill looks too good fr these and AP has won this race 3 times in the last 6 years. If Ascot escapes the frost, then expect that to become 4 from 7.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Darts
Just the darts today, but its quality not quantity that counts! As discussed on here and in the comments board, there are few muppets in this competition and there are upsets to be had. But you still could have had 10/1+ on Kirk Shepherd beating Terry Jenkins yesterday. After my comment yesterday though we did see four straight 3-0s, so it does happen!
1.30 Jenkins +2.5 sets to beat Navratil 8/15 (LOST +5.09 - Won the match 3-2)
Navratil won his preliminary round match 5-0 yesterday but a 3-dart average of just 75 shouldn't trouble Jenks.
2.30 Hamilton, Barneveld & Klaasen Treble 4/3 (LOST +4.09 - Klaasen lost 3-2)
Hamilton should have no problems with Kwadjik and Barney is the shortest price a darts player has ever been priced up, so all we are doing is enhancing the odds on Klaasen to beat Van der Voort. When they were in the BDO, Klaasen would have been favourite without doubt but he has taken a long time to find his feet in the PDC. However, he win his first PDC Pro Tour event in Killarney last month and seems to be getting back towards his potential. Van der Voort is solid, but if Klaasen shows his Klaas (sorry!) he should be just too good. If you don't want to mess about with the treble, try 3-2 Klaasen...
1.30 Jenkins +2.5 sets to beat Navratil 8/15 (LOST +5.09 - Won the match 3-2)
Navratil won his preliminary round match 5-0 yesterday but a 3-dart average of just 75 shouldn't trouble Jenks.
2.30 Hamilton, Barneveld & Klaasen Treble 4/3 (LOST +4.09 - Klaasen lost 3-2)
Hamilton should have no problems with Kwadjik and Barney is the shortest price a darts player has ever been priced up, so all we are doing is enhancing the odds on Klaasen to beat Van der Voort. When they were in the BDO, Klaasen would have been favourite without doubt but he has taken a long time to find his feet in the PDC. However, he win his first PDC Pro Tour event in Killarney last month and seems to be getting back towards his potential. Van der Voort is solid, but if Klaasen shows his Klaas (sorry!) he should be just too good. If you don't want to mess about with the treble, try 3-2 Klaasen...
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Horse Racing and Darts
Sounds like a perfect day for armchair sports fans doesn't it? The cricket is slowly meandering towards a draw, so here's hoping KP doesn't suffer another of those awful decisions from Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles. As mentioned previously the big names do worry about the first hurdle in the darts given its so short and they aren't in their stride. So far there have been seven 3-2 results, one 3-1 and no whitewashes.
12.00 Newbury Trachonitis e/w 10/1 (LOST +3.76 - never really got into the race)
This is not one for a big punt but Fitzy has won this race 5 out of the last 6 runnings and is riding a hurdle debutant who was a decent middle distance horse on the flat in Ireland, winning over 1m5f in yielding ground. With half these runners being able to be ruled out straight away, this seems an intriguing each way punt.
1.30 Caven +1.5 sets to beat Newton 5/6 (WON 3-0 +4.59)
With the above stat on results so far, and Newton another inconsistent performer, Caven has mixed it with the top boys on a few occasions so back him to take Wes to the wire.
8.00 Shepherd +2.5 sets to beat Jenkins 6/4 (WON 3-2 - +6.09)
Yes The Bull is top class, but Shepherd is a former Youth Champion and has beaten some of the middle seeds before. 6/4 for him to win a minimimum of one set therefore seems worth taking.
12.00 Newbury Trachonitis e/w 10/1 (LOST +3.76 - never really got into the race)
This is not one for a big punt but Fitzy has won this race 5 out of the last 6 runnings and is riding a hurdle debutant who was a decent middle distance horse on the flat in Ireland, winning over 1m5f in yielding ground. With half these runners being able to be ruled out straight away, this seems an intriguing each way punt.
1.30 Caven +1.5 sets to beat Newton 5/6 (WON 3-0 +4.59)
With the above stat on results so far, and Newton another inconsistent performer, Caven has mixed it with the top boys on a few occasions so back him to take Wes to the wire.
8.00 Shepherd +2.5 sets to beat Jenkins 6/4 (WON 3-2 - +6.09)
Yes The Bull is top class, but Shepherd is a former Youth Champion and has beaten some of the middle seeds before. 6/4 for him to win a minimimum of one set therefore seems worth taking.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Football and Darts
The weather forecast seems to be in our favour for the draw in the cricket, so fingers crossed. A fairly sparse day today but that happens at this time of year.
8.00 Manley & Taylor Double 19/30 (WON +5.76 - both made hard work of it though!)
Manley always takes this tournament very seriously and has a great record. I expect him to ease through here against Greebe. Much has been made of Taylor's tough start, but he is in his best form for over 18 months and I expect him to do a no-nonsense job, against a man who promised much but is yet to deliver since switching from the BDO.
8.00 Blackburn beat Arsenal 9/5 (LOST +4.76 - 2-2 draw)
Arsenal will have their reserves out, but Blackburn put out a full strength side last round and are expected to do so again. Arsenal don't like coming up against Blackburn especially at Ewood Park so 9/5 seems too good to miss.
8.00 Manley & Taylor Double 19/30 (WON +5.76 - both made hard work of it though!)
Manley always takes this tournament very seriously and has a great record. I expect him to ease through here against Greebe. Much has been made of Taylor's tough start, but he is in his best form for over 18 months and I expect him to do a no-nonsense job, against a man who promised much but is yet to deliver since switching from the BDO.
8.00 Blackburn beat Arsenal 9/5 (LOST +4.76 - 2-2 draw)
Arsenal will have their reserves out, but Blackburn put out a full strength side last round and are expected to do so again. Arsenal don't like coming up against Blackburn especially at Ewood Park so 9/5 seems too good to miss.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Horse Racing, Darts and Cricket
Hope you all had a good weekend with a few extra quid in your pockets after Friday's bonanza day. Later start today with a couple of horses, then through the night, with one of my favourite events on the sporting calendar kicking off at Alexandra Palace tonight - the World Darts Championships. Then get some kip before England attempt to square the series in Galle if the ground is actually ready!
3.15 Wolverhampton Rigat 7/4 (LOST +7.13 - didn't go with the pace once it stepped up)
Showed some potential as a 3yo but failed to see it through. However in the last couple of runs he has taken to the all-weather surface with a second and a first over this trip at thi track.
3.35 Plumpton Killyglen 5/1 (e/w) (MEETING ABANDONED)
Richard McGrath is 3 from 9 at Ayr this year and 1 from 1 in NHF races. The penalty may be tough for Killyglen to overcome but he stayed on well having made all when winning over this course and distance on his only run so far, so this partnership are worth another go, especially e/w
9 Carver beat Mardle 9/4 (LOST 3-2 +6.13 - Had his chances but blew it in the final set. Mardle looked as ropey as expected though)
Wayne Mardle can play from the sublime to the ridiculous. Unfortunately for him his form has been more of the latter this season, and with this first round over the short distance always seeing a few seeds go out, 9/4 looks too big for a guy who put up decent performances in the Desert Classic
4.30am Sri Lanka v England Draw 5/4 (WON - despite England's best efforts to mess it up!)
Sri Lanka showed last time out that they are perfectly happy batting and batting and batting and winning the series 1-0. England don't have the bowlers to stop them doing that on these wickets. With the weather also not looking great in Galle, this has draw written all over it and is why most bookies are 4/6 or 8/11. So Totesport's standout price of 5/4 looks too good to miss out on!
4.30am Pietersen England Top Bat 4/1 (LOST +5.13 - typically KP gets a snorter while the rest throw their wickets away)
In his eight test series so far in his career, only once has KP failed to score a hundred, and even then (India 05/06) his lowest high score was 87. And it hasn't been for lack of touch this series. Two awful umpiring decisions, one from Malinga that never bounced and the rain forcing an early close last time leaving him not out on 45 looking good, have caused his lack of runs. So expect him to make damn sure he registers one this time.
3.15 Wolverhampton Rigat 7/4 (LOST +7.13 - didn't go with the pace once it stepped up)
Showed some potential as a 3yo but failed to see it through. However in the last couple of runs he has taken to the all-weather surface with a second and a first over this trip at thi track.
3.35 Plumpton Killyglen 5/1 (e/w) (MEETING ABANDONED)
Richard McGrath is 3 from 9 at Ayr this year and 1 from 1 in NHF races. The penalty may be tough for Killyglen to overcome but he stayed on well having made all when winning over this course and distance on his only run so far, so this partnership are worth another go, especially e/w
9 Carver beat Mardle 9/4 (LOST 3-2 +6.13 - Had his chances but blew it in the final set. Mardle looked as ropey as expected though)
Wayne Mardle can play from the sublime to the ridiculous. Unfortunately for him his form has been more of the latter this season, and with this first round over the short distance always seeing a few seeds go out, 9/4 looks too big for a guy who put up decent performances in the Desert Classic
4.30am Sri Lanka v England Draw 5/4 (WON - despite England's best efforts to mess it up!)
Sri Lanka showed last time out that they are perfectly happy batting and batting and batting and winning the series 1-0. England don't have the bowlers to stop them doing that on these wickets. With the weather also not looking great in Galle, this has draw written all over it and is why most bookies are 4/6 or 8/11. So Totesport's standout price of 5/4 looks too good to miss out on!
4.30am Pietersen England Top Bat 4/1 (LOST +5.13 - typically KP gets a snorter while the rest throw their wickets away)
In his eight test series so far in his career, only once has KP failed to score a hundred, and even then (India 05/06) his lowest high score was 87. And it hasn't been for lack of touch this series. Two awful umpiring decisions, one from Malinga that never bounced and the rain forcing an early close last time leaving him not out on 45 looking good, have caused his lack of runs. So expect him to make damn sure he registers one this time.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Golf, Snooker and Football
Yesterday didn't start to well, but you need patience in this game, and Pod and Tiger saw that we are still nicely in credit, and I'll be backing them again today. One small request ladies and gents - I'd love you to leave some comments, questions, theories, etc, as I've no way of tracking how many of you read this. Look forward to your thoughts!
10.00 Andrew McLardy 3-ball 5/4 (WON by 1 shot +3.63)
Despite his name, this guy is not Scottish but South African. Yesterday he used that home advantage to shoot level par, in 5th position, 4 clear of one partner and 10 clear of the other. Odds against seems quite generous.
10.30 Tim Clark 3-ball 6/4 (DEAD HEAT +3.88)
Phillip Archer shot 9 over yesterday so this is a match bet between the two Saffies, Clark and Charl Schwartzel. Schwartzel was quick out the blocks yesterday with a flurry of early birdies helping him to 1 under and second spot. Clark however played the better back nine for 3 over which was respectable in the conditions. You could be ultra conservative and back them both at 6/4, but I'd suggest your winner will be Tim Clark.
10.40 Otto 3-ball 13/8 (WON by 2 shots +5.51)
Hennie Otto is another upcoming South African, and yesterday he beat Darren Fichardt and Pelle Edberg by 2 shots, which correctly reflects the current ability difference in my opinion. Expect a repeat result today.
1.30 Maguire beat Murphy 10/11 (WON 9-5 +6.42)
I tipped both these guys to win their quarter-finals on Wednesday but the relative results and ease of progression confirms my belief that Maguire could yet win this tournament (although Ronnie is looking red hot), and so 10/11 seems very generous.
6.00 Couples beat Wetterich 11/8 (WON by 1 shot +7.80)
Par at the last would have been enough for Freddie to win this yesterday. As it was he double bogeyed, just as Tiger was to do, Brett only bogeyed and he lost by a shot. And because of that we get a better price today!
6.40 Harrington beat Singh 10/11 (WON by 1 shot +8.71)
A one shot victory yesterday, and I'd go for more of the same today
6.50 Tiger beat Stenson 4/9 (WON by 10 shots! +9.13)
Tiger was 5 under coming to last then double bogeyed. Yes Tiger double bogeyed! Stenson had 7 birdies and 4 bogeys, and that inconsistency will see Tiger move ahead of him to the top of the leaderboard tonight
7.45 Morecambe bt Wycombe 3/1 (LOST 2-0 +8.13 - I guess thats why they were 3/1!)
I have to say I don't understand the pricing of this game. Morecambe in 8th visit 9th placed Wycombe suggests and even game with Wycombe slight favourites due to home advantage. But Wycombe have won 1 in 8 - that being 1-0 at home to bottom three Lincoln - and got hammered 6-0 by Stockport (who are 14th) last weekend. Morecambe have won their last three, and have a win, two draws and two losses away at the sides above them currently. So why 3/1? Who cares, get on!
10.00 Andrew McLardy 3-ball 5/4 (WON by 1 shot +3.63)
Despite his name, this guy is not Scottish but South African. Yesterday he used that home advantage to shoot level par, in 5th position, 4 clear of one partner and 10 clear of the other. Odds against seems quite generous.
10.30 Tim Clark 3-ball 6/4 (DEAD HEAT +3.88)
Phillip Archer shot 9 over yesterday so this is a match bet between the two Saffies, Clark and Charl Schwartzel. Schwartzel was quick out the blocks yesterday with a flurry of early birdies helping him to 1 under and second spot. Clark however played the better back nine for 3 over which was respectable in the conditions. You could be ultra conservative and back them both at 6/4, but I'd suggest your winner will be Tim Clark.
10.40 Otto 3-ball 13/8 (WON by 2 shots +5.51)
Hennie Otto is another upcoming South African, and yesterday he beat Darren Fichardt and Pelle Edberg by 2 shots, which correctly reflects the current ability difference in my opinion. Expect a repeat result today.
1.30 Maguire beat Murphy 10/11 (WON 9-5 +6.42)
I tipped both these guys to win their quarter-finals on Wednesday but the relative results and ease of progression confirms my belief that Maguire could yet win this tournament (although Ronnie is looking red hot), and so 10/11 seems very generous.
6.00 Couples beat Wetterich 11/8 (WON by 1 shot +7.80)
Par at the last would have been enough for Freddie to win this yesterday. As it was he double bogeyed, just as Tiger was to do, Brett only bogeyed and he lost by a shot. And because of that we get a better price today!
6.40 Harrington beat Singh 10/11 (WON by 1 shot +8.71)
A one shot victory yesterday, and I'd go for more of the same today
6.50 Tiger beat Stenson 4/9 (WON by 10 shots! +9.13)
Tiger was 5 under coming to last then double bogeyed. Yes Tiger double bogeyed! Stenson had 7 birdies and 4 bogeys, and that inconsistency will see Tiger move ahead of him to the top of the leaderboard tonight
7.45 Morecambe bt Wycombe 3/1 (LOST 2-0 +8.13 - I guess thats why they were 3/1!)
I have to say I don't understand the pricing of this game. Morecambe in 8th visit 9th placed Wycombe suggests and even game with Wycombe slight favourites due to home advantage. But Wycombe have won 1 in 8 - that being 1-0 at home to bottom three Lincoln - and got hammered 6-0 by Stockport (who are 14th) last weekend. Morecambe have won their last three, and have a win, two draws and two losses away at the sides above them currently. So why 3/1? Who cares, get on!
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Golf and Snooker
Well Day One went well didn't it? Here's hoping it continues and I can put a little extra in your pocket for Christmas! Today's focus is golf, with tournaments in South Africa and the US, and another snooker bet.
10.10 Cabrera win 3-ball 6/4 (LOST +2.68 Didn't cope with the wind in a round where noone broke 70!)
Cabrera is a regular early season performer and the bookies give more credit to Retief Goosen because the tournament is in South Africa than he deserves. John Bickerton is no better than steady so Cabrera is a good price.
1.30 Marco Fu bt Mark Selby 6/5 (LOST 9-7 +1.68 - Looked solid in first session then Selby got away, and couldn't quite reel him in)
Selby has been solid so far, but Fu has been flying and I can't see that changing here.
5.50 Couples bt Wetterich 11/8 (LOST by 1 shot +0.68 - second chance at this tomorrow)
Freddy has won round this course several times before and seems to have overcome his back problems for now. Dont miss out!
6.00 Harrington bt Singh 6/5 (WON by 1 shot +1.88)
Pod is truly up there now, while Vijay is slipping the other way.
6.30 Woods bt Stricker 1/2 (WON by 3 shots +2.38 - despite a double bogey at the last!)
Its Tiger's tournament, he wouldn't get beat would he?
10.10 Cabrera win 3-ball 6/4 (LOST +2.68 Didn't cope with the wind in a round where noone broke 70!)
Cabrera is a regular early season performer and the bookies give more credit to Retief Goosen because the tournament is in South Africa than he deserves. John Bickerton is no better than steady so Cabrera is a good price.
1.30 Marco Fu bt Mark Selby 6/5 (LOST 9-7 +1.68 - Looked solid in first session then Selby got away, and couldn't quite reel him in)
Selby has been solid so far, but Fu has been flying and I can't see that changing here.
5.50 Couples bt Wetterich 11/8 (LOST by 1 shot +0.68 - second chance at this tomorrow)
Freddy has won round this course several times before and seems to have overcome his back problems for now. Dont miss out!
6.00 Harrington bt Singh 6/5 (WON by 1 shot +1.88)
Pod is truly up there now, while Vijay is slipping the other way.
6.30 Woods bt Stricker 1/2 (WON by 3 shots +2.38 - despite a double bogey at the last!)
Its Tiger's tournament, he wouldn't get beat would he?
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Racing, Snooker and Football
For a while I've been punting myself and passing on a few tips to mates. They've always seemed impressed, so I thought it was time to go global and see what people think. So here's Day 1 - I bet its a stinker now! Prices are best available at time of posting, and I'll be keeping a running return to a £1 stake
1.10 Leicester - Earlsfield Raider 7/4 (WON +1.75)
He's the best horse in the race and he won over course and distance 10 days ago
1.40 Leicester - Castlecrossings 5/2 (2nd +0.75 - Well done if you got brave and took the reverse forecast with Overbranch!)
Looks like a match between the selection and Overbranch, but the former's form on heavy and the fact his jockey has ridden him before as opposed to Overbranch's means he has to be the favoured horse.
3.10 Ellway Prospect 7/2 (3rd -0.25 - Strange run to be filed under 'not straightforward')
Both AP and Oliver Sherwood have cracking records at Leicester, so teaming up here they have to be backed
2.00 Maguire to beat Williams 8/15 (WON 9-5 +0.28)
Mark Williams came back from 3-5 to win 9-5 last night but Stephen Maguire will be a different prospect, and he's my tip for the tournament.
2.00 Murphy bt Junhui 5/4 (WON 9-7 +1.53)
Junhui made heavy weather early on of Nigel Bond but went from 5-5 to 9-5. Murphy however has cruised through in sublime form and is too good a price to be missed.
7.45 Lyon Draw No Bet v Rangers 8/13 (WON 3-0 +2.15)
Rangers started well, but did they exceed expectations? Lyon are a class act and have slowly warmed up in Europe. Rangers only need a point, but I think thats the best they can hope for.
7.45 Sporting bt Kiev 8/13 (WON 3-0 +2.77)
This was a tough group but Kiev have conceded 16 goals in 5 games, 12 in last 3 and lost at home to Sporting. Seems obvious
7.45 Seville bt Slavia Prague 10/11 (WON 3-0 +3.68)
After a lacklustre opening game at Arsenal, Seville have found their form of last season and won all four games. They will want to win to finish top of the group, and I expect them to.
1.10 Leicester - Earlsfield Raider 7/4 (WON +1.75)
He's the best horse in the race and he won over course and distance 10 days ago
1.40 Leicester - Castlecrossings 5/2 (2nd +0.75 - Well done if you got brave and took the reverse forecast with Overbranch!)
Looks like a match between the selection and Overbranch, but the former's form on heavy and the fact his jockey has ridden him before as opposed to Overbranch's means he has to be the favoured horse.
3.10 Ellway Prospect 7/2 (3rd -0.25 - Strange run to be filed under 'not straightforward')
Both AP and Oliver Sherwood have cracking records at Leicester, so teaming up here they have to be backed
2.00 Maguire to beat Williams 8/15 (WON 9-5 +0.28)
Mark Williams came back from 3-5 to win 9-5 last night but Stephen Maguire will be a different prospect, and he's my tip for the tournament.
2.00 Murphy bt Junhui 5/4 (WON 9-7 +1.53)
Junhui made heavy weather early on of Nigel Bond but went from 5-5 to 9-5. Murphy however has cruised through in sublime form and is too good a price to be missed.
7.45 Lyon Draw No Bet v Rangers 8/13 (WON 3-0 +2.15)
Rangers started well, but did they exceed expectations? Lyon are a class act and have slowly warmed up in Europe. Rangers only need a point, but I think thats the best they can hope for.
7.45 Sporting bt Kiev 8/13 (WON 3-0 +2.77)
This was a tough group but Kiev have conceded 16 goals in 5 games, 12 in last 3 and lost at home to Sporting. Seems obvious
7.45 Seville bt Slavia Prague 10/11 (WON 3-0 +3.68)
After a lacklustre opening game at Arsenal, Seville have found their form of last season and won all four games. They will want to win to finish top of the group, and I expect them to.
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