A mouth-watering warm-up for the long weekend today. Next week I am away on business to there will be no updates until 1st June. However, make sure you have a flutter on Greece for the Eurovision Song Contest tomorrow night!
11.00 England 10/11 (WON +1.91 - What can I say that hasn't been said!?!?)
England are still the better side, despite Oram's heroics. In both innings, England were a dropped catch away from running through the Kiwis and with less rain in Manchester they should have the time to finish the job off this time. I considered tipping England to win the series 2-0 at 7/4 but I'll take Totesport's 10/11 for now and maybe double up on the 3rd test.
12.25 McGinley to win 3-ball 11/8 (WON +3.29 - A blistering 66 saw our man win this 3-ball by 5 shots. Then blew up on Saturday!)
Graham McDowell and David Howell both shot respectable -2 scores yesterday all be it in very different ways (Howell parred 14 holes, McDowell just 9), but neither could live with red hot McGinley. 7 birdies and no bogeys sent him to the top of the leaderboard. The Irishman is on a decent run of form with 3 top 20 finishes in his last three tournaments, and a good round again today could put him well placed to shoot up the Ryder Cup rankings.
2.30 Punjab to beat Deccan 3/5 (WON +3.89 - a cracking game with Deccan setting a good target of 176, but Sangakarra set Punjab up nicely to win with 3 balls to spare)
A win today will see Punjab become the second team to confirm a semi-final place after our favourites Rajasthan. And they couldn't hope for a better team to play than bottom of the table Deccan with only two wins in their campaign. Punjab showed they had the kahunas for a tight game winning by one run last time out, and while it shouldn't be as close this time, they will see it through.
7.3o Leeds bt Bradford 7/12 (WON 30-14 +4.47 - As expected Bradford really came at Leeds but the class told in the final quarter)
Its a West Yorkshire derby tonight in the Super League and while the Bulls and their fans will be right up for denting Leeds run, Leeds just have too much quality all over the park. It could be close, and Leeds do have a very sound defensive platform, so I'm not confident to pick the handicap or winning margin. So we'll just go for a safe winning bet.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Racing
So that was that. Did anyone not affiliated to either side fail to enjoy Ronaldo, Terry and Anelka missing? I didn't think United deserved it, and while a shootout was my preferred outcome - my version included AK-47s and Kalashnikovs.
4.10 Haydock Major Magpie 5/2 (LOST +2.00 - held up as usual, but the slow pace didn't allow him to come through as planned)
This horse has only run 10 times in the last two years, but he has had two wins and six places from that schedule, and looked as good as ever here last month when third in a more competitive race over the same distance, where he was just a length back from the winner.
5.10 Goodwood Rydal Mount 15/2 (LOST +1.00 - Stumbled out the stalls and getting back to the rest may have taken too much out of her as she struggled in the final furlong)
Another average handicap but these are proving fruitful of late. Rydal Mount, a Cape Cross mare, will prefer 7f to her recent runs at 6f and while there is a doubt about Good ground versus softer, she seems too good an each way bet to pass up.
4.10 Haydock Major Magpie 5/2 (LOST +2.00 - held up as usual, but the slow pace didn't allow him to come through as planned)
This horse has only run 10 times in the last two years, but he has had two wins and six places from that schedule, and looked as good as ever here last month when third in a more competitive race over the same distance, where he was just a length back from the winner.
5.10 Goodwood Rydal Mount 15/2 (LOST +1.00 - Stumbled out the stalls and getting back to the rest may have taken too much out of her as she struggled in the final furlong)
Another average handicap but these are proving fruitful of late. Rydal Mount, a Cape Cross mare, will prefer 7f to her recent runs at 6f and while there is a doubt about Good ground versus softer, she seems too good an each way bet to pass up.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Rugby League and Racing
Well maybe summer is still here. But what's the betting its raining in Manchester come 11am tomorrow morning? Anyway one of my favourite sporting encounters is on at 11am today - The State of Origin. This series is probably the most hotly contested match-ups in world rugby league and always provides cracking action.
11.00 Draw-Queensland HT/FT 22/1 (LOST -1.00 - NSW came out flying and although the Maroons hit back on half-time it was too much of a start they gave the Blues. Will hopefully get us a better price for game 2 at Lang Park though)
Generally evenly matched, its clubmates going at it hammer and tongs against each other and playing for the jersey. Queensland have the greater quality, but I'm not convinced Mal Maninga has got the backs selection quite right, playing a few boys out of their regular club positions. This may mean that they might take time to gel in the game situation, and it might take the full 80 minutes for the Maroons to stamp their authority on the game, particularly down in Melbourne. The final margin of victory in the last four opening ties has been 7, 1, 4, and 1 point going backwards, so you can see how tight the games are. And 2 of the last 5 competitive games (game 3 last year was a dead rubber) being all-square at half-time, 22/1 for the draw/Qld HT/FT is worth a small punt of anyone's money.
8.55 Sedgefield Nelliedonethat 4/1 (WON +3.00 - An excellent run and finished nicely coming to the fore 2 out and never looking likely to be passed, wining by 6 lengths)
A poor handicap, and while this horse is only 1 from 16 he has been placed in better contests and shaped well for new owner over 3m, where he was one paced on the run in. Good to firm would have had questions before that run, but coming back 2f in trip today, if he reproduces that form I expect him to go very close.
11.00 Draw-Queensland HT/FT 22/1 (LOST -1.00 - NSW came out flying and although the Maroons hit back on half-time it was too much of a start they gave the Blues. Will hopefully get us a better price for game 2 at Lang Park though)
Generally evenly matched, its clubmates going at it hammer and tongs against each other and playing for the jersey. Queensland have the greater quality, but I'm not convinced Mal Maninga has got the backs selection quite right, playing a few boys out of their regular club positions. This may mean that they might take time to gel in the game situation, and it might take the full 80 minutes for the Maroons to stamp their authority on the game, particularly down in Melbourne. The final margin of victory in the last four opening ties has been 7, 1, 4, and 1 point going backwards, so you can see how tight the games are. And 2 of the last 5 competitive games (game 3 last year was a dead rubber) being all-square at half-time, 22/1 for the draw/Qld HT/FT is worth a small punt of anyone's money.
8.55 Sedgefield Nelliedonethat 4/1 (WON +3.00 - An excellent run and finished nicely coming to the fore 2 out and never looking likely to be passed, wining by 6 lengths)
A poor handicap, and while this horse is only 1 from 16 he has been placed in better contests and shaped well for new owner over 3m, where he was one paced on the run in. Good to firm would have had questions before that run, but coming back 2f in trip today, if he reproduces that form I expect him to go very close.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Cricket
On the road today, so the spiel will be short, and its just the IPL.
3.20 Rajasthan to beat Kolkata 8/11 (WON +0.00 - A good strangle by Warne kept Kolkata's total to 147 but it looked like a close game at 70/4 off 10, until uncapped Yusuf Pathan, Irfan's younger brother smashed 48 off 18 balls (44 through the legside!) and the game was won with 3 overs to spare. Rajasthan have now qualified for the semi-finals)
As we've followed Shane Warne's charges from the start, their table topping status seems entirely justified. Warne has shown this format is not just about individual performances, but the whole team pulling together - including the local players. They have won both high scoring and low scoring encounters, batting first and second, and I expect them to rack up win number 9 today.
3.20 Rajasthan to beat Kolkata 8/11 (WON +0.00 - A good strangle by Warne kept Kolkata's total to 147 but it looked like a close game at 70/4 off 10, until uncapped Yusuf Pathan, Irfan's younger brother smashed 48 off 18 balls (44 through the legside!) and the game was won with 3 overs to spare. Rajasthan have now qualified for the semi-finals)
As we've followed Shane Warne's charges from the start, their table topping status seems entirely justified. Warne has shown this format is not just about individual performances, but the whole team pulling together - including the local players. They have won both high scoring and low scoring encounters, batting first and second, and I expect them to rack up win number 9 today.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Rugby League & Football
So only 50 overs were bowled at Lords but it was enough for England's price to be chopped in half as the Burnley Burglar exploited very favourable conditions to ensure his central contract renewal for next year. Need to knock these two over early and they won't get 250, but Oram and Vettori are capable of seeing them to 300 otherwise.
7.30 Warrington +6 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST 38-14 +0.73 - Wigan were on song, dirven by Trent Barrett and maybe the good times are returning for the Warriors...)
Much has been said and written about Wigan putting a century past Whitehaven in the Challenge Cup last weekend, but that's not Super League, and there is a reason they are closing off promotion and relegation. If you come back to the Super League, Wigan have lost their last three, including a 57-16 spanking by St Helens, and you have to go back 9 games to find a victory for the Warriors by more than 6 points. Granted Warrington had a poor run before edging Huddersfield 36-34 a fortnight ago, but they were only beaten by 8 points by the Saints and defeated Wigan 32-20 at home back in March. Both sides have 14 points but the Wolves points difference is 3.5pts per game better than Wigan. So a 6 point start tonight has to be taken advantage of, especially when some bookies are only offering +2 at similar prices.
7.45 Southend +0.25 Asian handicap v Doncaster 16/13 (LOST 5-1! -.27 - Well it all went wrong, and lets leave it at that, and get behind Donny for the final!)
Only three of the nine playoff matches so far have been won by the home side, and two of those are where the home side had an advantage from the first leg. This carries on the trend from last season, and suggests to me that the pressure and expectation of a home crowd becomes too much for many sides and they fail to perform as they have for the previous 46 games that have got them into this lottery. Tonight's game is another very much in the balance after a 0-0 draw at Roots Hall, but the late sending off of Doncaster centre forward who has scored 7 in 18 games for Rovers may leave short of firepower - neither James Hayter or Lewis Guy have scored in their last 10 appearances. A draw wouldn't surprise me, but Southend won 10 games on the road in the regular season, third to Swansea and Dirty Leeds, so a victory for the Shrimpers shouldn't be discounted. So to get the best of both worlds, lay Donny on Betfair, or play the Asian handicap.
7.30 Warrington +6 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST 38-14 +0.73 - Wigan were on song, dirven by Trent Barrett and maybe the good times are returning for the Warriors...)
Much has been said and written about Wigan putting a century past Whitehaven in the Challenge Cup last weekend, but that's not Super League, and there is a reason they are closing off promotion and relegation. If you come back to the Super League, Wigan have lost their last three, including a 57-16 spanking by St Helens, and you have to go back 9 games to find a victory for the Warriors by more than 6 points. Granted Warrington had a poor run before edging Huddersfield 36-34 a fortnight ago, but they were only beaten by 8 points by the Saints and defeated Wigan 32-20 at home back in March. Both sides have 14 points but the Wolves points difference is 3.5pts per game better than Wigan. So a 6 point start tonight has to be taken advantage of, especially when some bookies are only offering +2 at similar prices.
7.45 Southend +0.25 Asian handicap v Doncaster 16/13 (LOST 5-1! -.27 - Well it all went wrong, and lets leave it at that, and get behind Donny for the final!)
Only three of the nine playoff matches so far have been won by the home side, and two of those are where the home side had an advantage from the first leg. This carries on the trend from last season, and suggests to me that the pressure and expectation of a home crowd becomes too much for many sides and they fail to perform as they have for the previous 46 games that have got them into this lottery. Tonight's game is another very much in the balance after a 0-0 draw at Roots Hall, but the late sending off of Doncaster centre forward who has scored 7 in 18 games for Rovers may leave short of firepower - neither James Hayter or Lewis Guy have scored in their last 10 appearances. A draw wouldn't surprise me, but Southend won 10 games on the road in the regular season, third to Swansea and Dirty Leeds, so a victory for the Shrimpers shouldn't be discounted. So to get the best of both worlds, lay Donny on Betfair, or play the Asian handicap.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Cricket & Racing
Well the first Test is upon us and its time to pull out the mac's and the umbrellas! They really have got their money's worth out of the new drainage system at the home of cricket since they installed it! Commiserations to my Rangers friends out there. Beaten by the better side in the end, but no shame in getting as far as they did, and there's still every chance of a domestic treble.
11 England to beat New Zealand 6/5 (LOST +1.73) The rain stayed longer than forecast in the end and so the gloom meant no result was possible)
England should beat New Zealand. Whether it should be said publicly by the coach or not is another thing, but England should be expected to beat New Zealand, and dominate them as they did in the last two Tests down under a few months ago. And with the added benefit of home turf, and only a handful of New Zealander's having played in England before, it looks even more in England's favour. The big driver keeping England at odds against though is the weather. But does it need to be fine for all five days for a result. These two sides have only gone the distance once in recent times, and with the added time that can be made up these days, even three days of good weather can mean almost four days worth of cricket can be played. And the new drainage at Lords is so good that when it stops raining, play can recommence very soon thereafter. And how often are weather forecasters right anyway? Take odds against now...
7.45 Carlisle beat Leeds 2/1 (LOST 2-0 +0.73 - losing a tenner didnt hurt that much for me last night, but seeing those jammy gits get through with another last minute goal did. Here's hoping karma comes around at Wembley)
With 95 minutes on the clock this tie was as good as over, but in the final 40 seconds, dirty Leeds somehow breathed life back into their season and go into tonight's second leg with a chance. But it is still a slim one - and one that the bookies seem to have over-inflated because they are Leeds. Carlisle. Leeds have a decent the second best away record in that division, but is 50/50 against top half sides, won 5, drawn 1, lost 5. However, Carlisle have the best home record, winning 17 and losing just 3 of their 23 home games this season. They ended Leeds 15 game unbeaten run at the start of the season with a 3-1 victory, lost 3-2 at Elland Road in the run-in, and then won 2-1 on Monday night. So thats 7 goals in 3 games against Leeds on top of the home record. So you have to fancy them to score tonight and it may be another close game, but I think Carlisle are too big a price against those stats.
11 England to beat New Zealand 6/5 (LOST +1.73) The rain stayed longer than forecast in the end and so the gloom meant no result was possible)
England should beat New Zealand. Whether it should be said publicly by the coach or not is another thing, but England should be expected to beat New Zealand, and dominate them as they did in the last two Tests down under a few months ago. And with the added benefit of home turf, and only a handful of New Zealander's having played in England before, it looks even more in England's favour. The big driver keeping England at odds against though is the weather. But does it need to be fine for all five days for a result. These two sides have only gone the distance once in recent times, and with the added time that can be made up these days, even three days of good weather can mean almost four days worth of cricket can be played. And the new drainage at Lords is so good that when it stops raining, play can recommence very soon thereafter. And how often are weather forecasters right anyway? Take odds against now...
7.45 Carlisle beat Leeds 2/1 (LOST 2-0 +0.73 - losing a tenner didnt hurt that much for me last night, but seeing those jammy gits get through with another last minute goal did. Here's hoping karma comes around at Wembley)
With 95 minutes on the clock this tie was as good as over, but in the final 40 seconds, dirty Leeds somehow breathed life back into their season and go into tonight's second leg with a chance. But it is still a slim one - and one that the bookies seem to have over-inflated because they are Leeds. Carlisle. Leeds have a decent the second best away record in that division, but is 50/50 against top half sides, won 5, drawn 1, lost 5. However, Carlisle have the best home record, winning 17 and losing just 3 of their 23 home games this season. They ended Leeds 15 game unbeaten run at the start of the season with a 3-1 victory, lost 3-2 at Elland Road in the run-in, and then won 2-1 on Monday night. So thats 7 goals in 3 games against Leeds on top of the home record. So you have to fancy them to score tonight and it may be another close game, but I think Carlisle are too big a price against those stats.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Racing
A quiet day today ahead of the 1st Test match of the summer at Lords tomorrow. I was quite impressed with Great Leighs yesterday. Good set up, decent viewing, but they do need to sort out the public transport. Its half an hour to Chelmsford from Liverpool Street and then there is no bus service that goes within a couple of miles of the course so its a 25 minute taxi only. There is supposed to be a shuttle service on racedays, but that will be a 30 minute journey at least. I'll stick with summer evenings at Sandown thanks.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Cricket & Racing
Another step closer to justice. The FA showed backbone in not giving Leeds their 15 points back, and now Carlisle pleased all decent football fans with an excellent 2-1 victory at the once great Elland Road. Fingers crossed for the right result on Thursday. If you believe in names and omens, surely today's pick of the day is Mick Is Back in the 3.10 of Brighton, just days after Seagulls favourite Mickey Adams returned to manage the local football club for a second time. I'll be making my first visit to Great Leighs tonight, so will report back tomorrow.
3.30 Kolkata beat Delhi 5/4 (WON+3.60 - 133 didn't look enough, but three overs from Shoaib Akhtar and it was more than enough. He removed the top 4 of the Daredevils with just 28 on the board, and the game finished with a remarkable spell of 5 balls, three wickets for 6 runs from Shukla)
A real mid-table clash this with both sides won half of their 8 games and Kolkata ahead on net run-rate by just 0.045 runs per over. But recent form is the separator for me today. Skipper Ganguly (91) and David Hussey (54) helped post 204 which was 23 too many for Deccan. Their bowlers also performed well against Bangalore, defending 129 in a shortened 16 over game - again led by Ganguly, who conceded just 7 in his three overs. Delhi meanwhile lost by 3 wickets to Rajasthan - no great shame in that but 159 was never enough. But that is three defeats in a row and losing, like winning becomes a habit. So odds against seems too good an offer.
5.50 Great Leighs Forever Changes e/w 11/2 (LOST +2.60 - was being ridden as they turned into the straight and never made an impression. I juct got this all wrong!)
Struggled at big prices in maidens last year, but has performed better in his two handicaps after 6 months off. Touched off by a nose last time out, and the step back in trip may see her nick this one.
6.20 Great Leighs Tenancy e/w 5/1 (2nd +2.73 - went from the front and looked like he might lead start to finish with half a furlong to go, but just couldnt quite hold off the eventual winner)
Didn't run well off this mark 8 weeks ago, but looked a stronger animal a fortnight ago when landing a pair of second places - both by 2l, but also 3l clear of 3rd both times. Doesn't seem to be an obvious improver tonight, so worth another chance with 4 places counting.
3.30 Kolkata beat Delhi 5/4 (WON+3.60 - 133 didn't look enough, but three overs from Shoaib Akhtar and it was more than enough. He removed the top 4 of the Daredevils with just 28 on the board, and the game finished with a remarkable spell of 5 balls, three wickets for 6 runs from Shukla)
A real mid-table clash this with both sides won half of their 8 games and Kolkata ahead on net run-rate by just 0.045 runs per over. But recent form is the separator for me today. Skipper Ganguly (91) and David Hussey (54) helped post 204 which was 23 too many for Deccan. Their bowlers also performed well against Bangalore, defending 129 in a shortened 16 over game - again led by Ganguly, who conceded just 7 in his three overs. Delhi meanwhile lost by 3 wickets to Rajasthan - no great shame in that but 159 was never enough. But that is three defeats in a row and losing, like winning becomes a habit. So odds against seems too good an offer.
5.50 Great Leighs Forever Changes e/w 11/2 (LOST +2.60 - was being ridden as they turned into the straight and never made an impression. I juct got this all wrong!)
Struggled at big prices in maidens last year, but has performed better in his two handicaps after 6 months off. Touched off by a nose last time out, and the step back in trip may see her nick this one.
6.20 Great Leighs Tenancy e/w 5/1 (2nd +2.73 - went from the front and looked like he might lead start to finish with half a furlong to go, but just couldnt quite hold off the eventual winner)
Didn't run well off this mark 8 weeks ago, but looked a stronger animal a fortnight ago when landing a pair of second places - both by 2l, but also 3l clear of 3rd both times. Doesn't seem to be an obvious improver tonight, so worth another chance with 4 places counting.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Racing
Not a bad weekend was it? Thrills and spills in the relegation battle, unfortunately the top of the table was more predictable, and the playoffs threw up some interesting second legs. Meanwhile Sergio worked out how his putter worked at Sawgrass, we saw a reasonably competitive F1 race, and Leeds and Harlequins served up a cracker in the Challenge Cup. How do we follow that? How about a gentle cruise down the river to Windsor...
5.55 Windsor Every Second 2/1 (2nd +2.35 - good pace and although bumped by the winner in the run-in, didn't quite have enough to get there)
This two year old showed well on his racecourse debuy last month, when 3l second, but 4l clear of the rest. Should have a very good chance if running a similar race today. His trainer has 2 wins and 3 places from his last 14 runners. The owner, John Fretwell, president of Welbeck Cricket Club, has a good eye for horses and his two year olds are yet to come out out of the places this season.
5.55 Windsor Every Second 2/1 (2nd +2.35 - good pace and although bumped by the winner in the run-in, didn't quite have enough to get there)
This two year old showed well on his racecourse debuy last month, when 3l second, but 4l clear of the rest. Should have a very good chance if running a similar race today. His trainer has 2 wins and 3 places from his last 14 runners. The owner, John Fretwell, president of Welbeck Cricket Club, has a good eye for horses and his two year olds are yet to come out out of the places this season.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Racing
Welcome to Friday. Aren't these short weeks great? The Chester May festival finishes up today and then the weekend football starts with playoff first legs tonight, and the apparently boring Premier League still waiting to find out who wins the league and which other two sides get relegated on the last day of the season. Enjoy the sunshine today then nip in and watch some evening racing in between cooking the sausages on the barbie. Then finish up watching Sergio try to defend his lead at Sawgrass.
5.45 Aintree Your Amount 7/4 (WON +4.35 - Travelled very nice and took the lead on two from home. Stumbled at the last but saw it home nicely)
Alan King's gelding has been progressing nicely through the winter, seemingly preferring faster ground and looked at home over 2m4f at Ayr last time out - the latter fact can be applied to only Latanier of the rest of the field. Robert Thornton rode him to his maiden victory, so his return to the pilot's seat today is another good pointer.
7.10 Hamilton Princess Lomi 11/4 (2nd +3.35 - Could never quite get to the eventual winner, but will win again)
This fillie has put in two consistent performances over 10f so far this season, each time finishing like she would get a slightly longer trip. An extra 2 furlongs tonight and I expect to see the ever reliable Tom Eaves win this up the Hamilton hill.
5.45 Aintree Your Amount 7/4 (WON +4.35 - Travelled very nice and took the lead on two from home. Stumbled at the last but saw it home nicely)
Alan King's gelding has been progressing nicely through the winter, seemingly preferring faster ground and looked at home over 2m4f at Ayr last time out - the latter fact can be applied to only Latanier of the rest of the field. Robert Thornton rode him to his maiden victory, so his return to the pilot's seat today is another good pointer.
7.10 Hamilton Princess Lomi 11/4 (2nd +3.35 - Could never quite get to the eventual winner, but will win again)
This fillie has put in two consistent performances over 10f so far this season, each time finishing like she would get a slightly longer trip. An extra 2 furlongs tonight and I expect to see the ever reliable Tom Eaves win this up the Hamilton hill.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Racing
One of my favourite race meetings looks fabulous today - Chester's May meeting. A gorgeous course which provides a true test, but also not too big fields with a chance for us punters. Meanwhile Rangers ground out another 1-0 and Rijkaard's days are surely numbered at the Nou Camp now after a 4-1 defeat to Madrid.
4.35 Chester Fathsta e/w 8/1 (2nd +2.60 - the draw did force him to go right round the outside but he did finish like a train, will definitely win a race soon, and my go to 6f too)
This horse improved by nearly a stone on the all-weather through the winter, before coming on again on his two races on the turf, finishing second last time out. Some concerns over the draw, but his strong finish may overcome that disadvantage, and should feature in the places
4.35 Chester Fathsta e/w 8/1 (2nd +2.60 - the draw did force him to go right round the outside but he did finish like a train, will definitely win a race soon, and my go to 6f too)
This horse improved by nearly a stone on the all-weather through the winter, before coming on again on his two races on the turf, finishing second last time out. Some concerns over the draw, but his strong finish may overcome that disadvantage, and should feature in the places
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Racing
A very nice start to the month with four in a row building up a nice war chest. So we can all play nicely and make no comments about Jamie Murray's mum. But it seems mum's are the key now, as Stuart Broad has come out and said his mum was the key to his career success. That sounds a bit harsh on his old man, who presumably passed on some talent, having won the Ashes down under in 1987! But onto today's bets, while the golfers warm up ready for the '5th Major'.
2.20 Fakenham Rapscallion-Dyneburg Forecast SP (1st-3rd +3.10 - turning into the straight we had every chance, but Aleemdar went on with Rapscallion rather than Dyneburg, and we were left with the frustration of 1st and 3rd. Aleemdar though is under investigation for 'irregular betting patterns')
On the BHB ratings this looks a 2-horse race between these two, who are 8lbs and 10lbs better off to their nearest rival Mr Wiseguy. Rapscallion has only been out of the first three on two occasions from seven runs this winter - once when falling and probably would have won the other when carried out at the last. The booking of AP confirms to me that today he should make up for that misfortune. Dyneburg didn't enjoy his chasing winter, pulling up 3 times out of five, but his return to hurdles in a claimer last time, stamped his hurdle mark as still fair, and with the advantage he has here on those weights, I expect Paddy Brennan to follow AP home.
7.45 Arbroath v Stranraer Draw 5/2 (LOST +2.10 - A fine 2-0 victory for Arbroath ruined not only this bet, but my planned second leg bet as I would have backed them to go through. They should do now, but will be no price)
The playoff finals in Scotland are two legged affairs and tonight's is the first leg of the Division Three playoff. And that fact alone would point you to a cagey affair, with neither side wanting to lose it in the first leg. This theory is further supported by the fact that both these teams drew their semi-final first legs - in which Arbroath were at home and Stranraer away, just as they are tonight. If you still need further convincing, of the four matches between these sides so far this season, three ended up all square, including the last league game of the season.
2.20 Fakenham Rapscallion-Dyneburg Forecast SP (1st-3rd +3.10 - turning into the straight we had every chance, but Aleemdar went on with Rapscallion rather than Dyneburg, and we were left with the frustration of 1st and 3rd. Aleemdar though is under investigation for 'irregular betting patterns')
On the BHB ratings this looks a 2-horse race between these two, who are 8lbs and 10lbs better off to their nearest rival Mr Wiseguy. Rapscallion has only been out of the first three on two occasions from seven runs this winter - once when falling and probably would have won the other when carried out at the last. The booking of AP confirms to me that today he should make up for that misfortune. Dyneburg didn't enjoy his chasing winter, pulling up 3 times out of five, but his return to hurdles in a claimer last time, stamped his hurdle mark as still fair, and with the advantage he has here on those weights, I expect Paddy Brennan to follow AP home.
7.45 Arbroath v Stranraer Draw 5/2 (LOST +2.10 - A fine 2-0 victory for Arbroath ruined not only this bet, but my planned second leg bet as I would have backed them to go through. They should do now, but will be no price)
The playoff finals in Scotland are two legged affairs and tonight's is the first leg of the Division Three playoff. And that fact alone would point you to a cagey affair, with neither side wanting to lose it in the first leg. This theory is further supported by the fact that both these teams drew their semi-final first legs - in which Arbroath were at home and Stranraer away, just as they are tonight. If you still need further convincing, of the four matches between these sides so far this season, three ended up all square, including the last league game of the season.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Racing
Hope you all enjoyed the sporting dramas this weekend - the Premiership, the Championship, the SPL, Conference play-offs, IPL, World Snooker, rugby league thrashings, Guineas won by a nose and half a length, rugby union playoffs. Its all happening out there! Not to mention the drama of the Quiche Platter and an unexpected visit to the gay quarter of Birmingham I experienced at the weekend!
8.20 Exeter Nemetan 5/2 (WON +4.10 - A very game performance. Several runners came to take up the lead at various stages, but an excellent ride from Felix de Giles, who I think is destined for great things, meant that our horse was there at the right time and saw us home)
A reasonable handicap chaser for the last 18 months, he won 3 from 10, and four further places, but has been sent back over hurdles, after 5 unsuccessful attempts as a 5 year old. But his first race back over the smaller obstacles saw a 9 length second in a decent handicap at Chepstow. He's still 16lbs lower than his chase rating and should close that gap today.
8.20 Exeter Nemetan 5/2 (WON +4.10 - A very game performance. Several runners came to take up the lead at various stages, but an excellent ride from Felix de Giles, who I think is destined for great things, meant that our horse was there at the right time and saw us home)
A reasonable handicap chaser for the last 18 months, he won 3 from 10, and four further places, but has been sent back over hurdles, after 5 unsuccessful attempts as a 5 year old. But his first race back over the smaller obstacles saw a 9 length second in a decent handicap at Chepstow. He's still 16lbs lower than his chase rating and should close that gap today.
Friday, May 2, 2008
A much better month than March, and a good run into the end of it took the winning percentage over 50% - the highest so far this year. As we move into the sixth month of tipping, we have still only had one down month, and at no point would you have been down. Keep backing them and spread the word!
April profit : £12.85
Success rate : 50% (26/52)
Overall profit : £15.70
Overall success : 38% (81/213)
April profit : £12.85
Success rate : 50% (26/52)
Overall profit : £15.70
Overall success : 38% (81/213)
Thursday, May 1, 2008
So its red versus blue in Moscow, and its red versus blue on the streets of London and Boris lines up to bash King Newt. But of course in Sheffield there are more colours on view with two very contrasting semi-finals. Experience galore as Stephen Hendry takes on Ronnie O'Sullivan while its the opposit as Ali Carter faces Joe Perry - who stole his quarter-final from under Stephen Maguire's nose. Both are best watched rather than backed though. And the same goes for the darts. With some dead rubbers and the Lewis v Mardle game too close to call, its watch and enjoy time.
11.30 Rajasthan to beat Kolkata 5/6 (WON +.83 - Warne's boys were in control from the off, and I as wrote in a previous blog, this could well come down to who has the best locals. So far Rajasthan are winning that hands down)
Two teams going in opposite directions here. Rajasthan lost their first game, but have bounced back since knocking off 168 with 11 balls to spare, 214 with one ball to spare, and 135 with 17 to spare, as Shane Warne's team have moulded into a useful team in all areas of the game. Saurav Ganguly's side started with a huge bang with Brendan McCullum's 158 leading them to a 140 run victory in the first game and then seeing of the disappointing Deccan Chargers in a low-scoring affair. Since then Matthew Hayden and MS Dhoni handed out a 9 wicket defeat before Mumbai pased 137 with ease. With Ponting and McCullum away on international duty too the 5/6 for Warne's charges seems too generous.
4.10 Hereford Jocheski 13/2 e/w (2nd +1.46 - so close! Plenty of people joined the gamble and he went off 11/2. Patiently ridden and closed well from three out. Just got in front but pipped by a short head on the line)
This 4 year old gelding has come up against some decent sorts in his maiden hurdles so far - the likes of Chapoturgeon and Prideus have gone on to prove themselves at a higher level, while 4 of the 9 horses to finish in front of Jocheski in his three hurdles races so far, have registered a win when moving to handicap company. His best run yet came on good ground at Taunton last time out, so if the rain stays away and the going remains good today I expect him to go close on his handicap debut.
7.45 Rangers +0.75 Asian Handicap 8/7 (WON +1.60 - What a performance! The finest example as a team performing better than the sum of its individual parts)
Its easy to dismiss an SPL side against a Serie A side, but Rangers record in Europe this season has been very impressive, and even more so away from home after drawing 0-0 at Ibrox, as they did in the first leg here. Walter Smith no longer has the resources to bring in big name flair players like Gascoigne, Laudrup, Steven, Kanchelskis as Rangers once did, but instead he has spent wisely on a steadfast defence - if you don't concede you can't lose. Carlos Cuellar and David Weir, and Christian Dailly since January, have been at the heart of that with Barry Ferguson snapping away in front of them. They have hit sides on the break with the pace of their front men and supporting midfielders - a tactic that will be well suited to tonight, where an away goal will be priceless. Fiorentina are fourth in Serie A but, like the Premiership, the top clubs are clear of the rest, and Fiorentina are not exactly free scoring. So while I agree with the bookies and find it unlikely Rangers will win on the night, a draw is not out the question and if Rangers do go down it may well be to just the odd goal. In that scenario the +0.75 Asian handicap will leave us a touch up, and the draw will double our money.
11.30 Rajasthan to beat Kolkata 5/6 (WON +.83 - Warne's boys were in control from the off, and I as wrote in a previous blog, this could well come down to who has the best locals. So far Rajasthan are winning that hands down)
Two teams going in opposite directions here. Rajasthan lost their first game, but have bounced back since knocking off 168 with 11 balls to spare, 214 with one ball to spare, and 135 with 17 to spare, as Shane Warne's team have moulded into a useful team in all areas of the game. Saurav Ganguly's side started with a huge bang with Brendan McCullum's 158 leading them to a 140 run victory in the first game and then seeing of the disappointing Deccan Chargers in a low-scoring affair. Since then Matthew Hayden and MS Dhoni handed out a 9 wicket defeat before Mumbai pased 137 with ease. With Ponting and McCullum away on international duty too the 5/6 for Warne's charges seems too generous.
4.10 Hereford Jocheski 13/2 e/w (2nd +1.46 - so close! Plenty of people joined the gamble and he went off 11/2. Patiently ridden and closed well from three out. Just got in front but pipped by a short head on the line)
This 4 year old gelding has come up against some decent sorts in his maiden hurdles so far - the likes of Chapoturgeon and Prideus have gone on to prove themselves at a higher level, while 4 of the 9 horses to finish in front of Jocheski in his three hurdles races so far, have registered a win when moving to handicap company. His best run yet came on good ground at Taunton last time out, so if the rain stays away and the going remains good today I expect him to go close on his handicap debut.
7.45 Rangers +0.75 Asian Handicap 8/7 (WON +1.60 - What a performance! The finest example as a team performing better than the sum of its individual parts)
Its easy to dismiss an SPL side against a Serie A side, but Rangers record in Europe this season has been very impressive, and even more so away from home after drawing 0-0 at Ibrox, as they did in the first leg here. Walter Smith no longer has the resources to bring in big name flair players like Gascoigne, Laudrup, Steven, Kanchelskis as Rangers once did, but instead he has spent wisely on a steadfast defence - if you don't concede you can't lose. Carlos Cuellar and David Weir, and Christian Dailly since January, have been at the heart of that with Barry Ferguson snapping away in front of them. They have hit sides on the break with the pace of their front men and supporting midfielders - a tactic that will be well suited to tonight, where an away goal will be priceless. Fiorentina are fourth in Serie A but, like the Premiership, the top clubs are clear of the rest, and Fiorentina are not exactly free scoring. So while I agree with the bookies and find it unlikely Rangers will win on the night, a draw is not out the question and if Rangers do go down it may well be to just the odd goal. In that scenario the +0.75 Asian handicap will leave us a touch up, and the draw will double our money.
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