A quick note on the big handicap at Newmarket today.
3.35 Newmarket, Awinnersgame 9/2
This race has some really strong trends to it. The last three favourites have all gone in, and its 4 from the last 10 races. Even when the favourite hasn't won, the biggest price has been 9/1. So we can immediately cross the three outsiders off, and lean towards the two horses vying for favouritism - Awinnersgame and Courageous. The next trend to look at is a horse that has been in the first two over 7f before coming to Newmarket - four of the last five have done that and last year's winner really needed to stay the trip. The two favoured horses and third favourite Penny's Gift have all done that. You could look at the weights and say nothing under 8'10 has won in the last 10 years, but then the official ratings show that nothing rated higher than 106 on the official ratings has come in, and that could seem like a paradox, but there is only one horse in today's race that satisfies both those trends and its Awinnersgame. So he's ticks all the boxes. The other two will push him close, but you have to fancy Awinnersgame, especially if the market pushes him to favouritism.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Darts
Crunch time in Premier League now. Mardle is ill so Part's playing twice tonight.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Grand National
An early tip, as I get bored of people asking me who's going to win the National, as if it was as easy as picking Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. For starters its a handicap, so its meant to be difficult to win and hence pick the winner. Add to that the unique distance and fences and it might look like a lottery. Its not quite that as there have only been 3 winners out of the last 18 priced bigger than 20/1 (and only 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 then), but it still isn't easy. But here goes.
The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.
So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.
The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.
So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Scottish Football
Annan Athletic to beat Albion Rovers 10/11
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Darts
Wade -3.5 v Klaasen Evens
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Golf, Snooker and Football
Its been busy here hence the lack of updates. I thought about shutting it all down, but I will get a few chances to post, just maybe not every day. But a few thoughts today, mainly on the snooker.
Anthony Kim to win the Johnnie Walker Classic 4/1 (LOST -1.00)
Kim has posted two 68s now and is 2 shots off the leader at the end of the second round. There are no established names above him so 4/1 is a good price for the young American to pick up the spoils.
10.00 Maguire to beat Swail 5-4 and 5-3 (1/2pt each) at 7/1 and 5/1 (LOST -2.00 - it did go to the wire but unfortunately went the wrong way)
Maguire snook through against Ding yesterday, coming back from 4-2 down to snatch victory and should reach the semi's today. He is 6-0 versus Joe Swail and two of those have gone to the deciding frame, including a 9-8, but the last two matches were 9-5 and 13-8 so we should cover 5-4 and 5-3.
4.00 Hamilton+2.5 legs versus Selby 8/11 (WON -1.27 - Hamilton not only covered the handicap but won 5-3)
Mark Selby is the favourite for the tournament now Ronnie is out, and I expect him to go through at 1/4, but Anthony Hamilton is in decent form and will push him all the way, so 8/11 to get 3 frames or more sounds good to me.
7.00 Fu to beat Robertson 6/5 (LOST 5-2 -2.27 - Mraco just never turned up after beating Ronnie the day before)
I backed Marco Fu yesterday at 5/2 to beat Ronnie and had virtually torn my slip up at 3-1 down when he touched 12/1 in running. But he then won 4 frames in a row to take out the world number one. These two met twice last season, drawing once in the Malta Cup and Fu winning 6-5 at the Masters, so expect a close one. But given Hills are offering odds against for Fu, that has to be snapped up.
Saturday 1.00 Derby draw no bet versus Forest 6/5 (WON 3-1 -1.07 - We should have taken the outright win, but the victory alone was sweet enough!)
Derby have been a different side since Nigel Clough's appointment, and he is finally getting the players to perform at or near their potential, while Billy Davies had a brief honeymoon period but normal service is now resumed. Derby have won their last three league games, while Forest have drawn one and lost four of their last five games in all competitions - including losing 3-2 to Derby in the cup after being 2-0 up. That will be fresh in their memories, along with how Kris Commons tore them apart. He was instrumental in Derby's 4-1 win over Blackpool on Wednesday too, and will relish another shot at his former employers. I can see Derby winning, but as it is a local Derby, maybe some caution should be urged and the 6/5 draw no bet seems the best way.
Anthony Kim to win the Johnnie Walker Classic 4/1 (LOST -1.00)
Kim has posted two 68s now and is 2 shots off the leader at the end of the second round. There are no established names above him so 4/1 is a good price for the young American to pick up the spoils.
10.00 Maguire to beat Swail 5-4 and 5-3 (1/2pt each) at 7/1 and 5/1 (LOST -2.00 - it did go to the wire but unfortunately went the wrong way)
Maguire snook through against Ding yesterday, coming back from 4-2 down to snatch victory and should reach the semi's today. He is 6-0 versus Joe Swail and two of those have gone to the deciding frame, including a 9-8, but the last two matches were 9-5 and 13-8 so we should cover 5-4 and 5-3.
4.00 Hamilton+2.5 legs versus Selby 8/11 (WON -1.27 - Hamilton not only covered the handicap but won 5-3)
Mark Selby is the favourite for the tournament now Ronnie is out, and I expect him to go through at 1/4, but Anthony Hamilton is in decent form and will push him all the way, so 8/11 to get 3 frames or more sounds good to me.
7.00 Fu to beat Robertson 6/5 (LOST 5-2 -2.27 - Mraco just never turned up after beating Ronnie the day before)
I backed Marco Fu yesterday at 5/2 to beat Ronnie and had virtually torn my slip up at 3-1 down when he touched 12/1 in running. But he then won 4 frames in a row to take out the world number one. These two met twice last season, drawing once in the Malta Cup and Fu winning 6-5 at the Masters, so expect a close one. But given Hills are offering odds against for Fu, that has to be snapped up.
Saturday 1.00 Derby draw no bet versus Forest 6/5 (WON 3-1 -1.07 - We should have taken the outright win, but the victory alone was sweet enough!)
Derby have been a different side since Nigel Clough's appointment, and he is finally getting the players to perform at or near their potential, while Billy Davies had a brief honeymoon period but normal service is now resumed. Derby have won their last three league games, while Forest have drawn one and lost four of their last five games in all competitions - including losing 3-2 to Derby in the cup after being 2-0 up. That will be fresh in their memories, along with how Kris Commons tore them apart. He was instrumental in Derby's 4-1 win over Blackpool on Wednesday too, and will relish another shot at his former employers. I can see Derby winning, but as it is a local Derby, maybe some caution should be urged and the 6/5 draw no bet seems the best way.
Summary / Update
After just over a year in existence the final results are in and we're in profit:
£14.11 profit
37% sucess rate (138/374)
And the outstanding bets are:
Anelka Top Scorer e/w 16/1 - currently three clear of Ronaldo and Robinho
Bent Top Scorer e/w 25/1 - with a group of seven on nine goals, one off fourth spot for the each way money
Bent to be Top Spurs Scorer 10/11 - his nine are 6 ahead of next highest scorer Pavlyuchenko
Kauto Star e/w 5/1 - As predicted Kauto romped the King George and Denman's poor return run has seen our horse go to 2/1 while Denman slumps to 11/2
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3 - the gap to West Brom was 9 points when we put this bet on. Its now just 2, and Stoke are 6/4
Stoke to be relegated 8/11 - Blackburn only need a point from their game in hand against Fulham to drop the Potters into the bottom three, and I think its those three that are there that will go down.
£14.11 profit
37% sucess rate (138/374)
And the outstanding bets are:
Anelka Top Scorer e/w 16/1 - currently three clear of Ronaldo and Robinho
Bent Top Scorer e/w 25/1 - with a group of seven on nine goals, one off fourth spot for the each way money
Bent to be Top Spurs Scorer 10/11 - his nine are 6 ahead of next highest scorer Pavlyuchenko
Kauto Star e/w 5/1 - As predicted Kauto romped the King George and Denman's poor return run has seen our horse go to 2/1 while Denman slumps to 11/2
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3 - the gap to West Brom was 9 points when we put this bet on. Its now just 2, and Stoke are 6/4
Stoke to be relegated 8/11 - Blackburn only need a point from their game in hand against Fulham to drop the Potters into the bottom three, and I think its those three that are there that will go down.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Snooker
The Punter is back! A prolonged break but I can't resist the snooker so here we go...
2.30 Murphy 10/11, Murphy 6-5 11/2 - LOST
Shaun Murphy has already won one title this season, while Ding is struggling to fulfil his undoubted talent. But Murphy has the Indian sign over Ding. They have played each other five times in the last three seasons, and Murphy has won 4 of the meetings - the other was a 3-3 draw in the Premier League. However, three of those 4 victories went to the deciding frame, and the other was 9-7, so spectators can expect to get their money's worth. And I'd split your stakes here. Take Murphy to win at 10/11 and to win 6-5 at 11/2.
11.30 Chanderpaul top West Indian Bat 7/2 - LOST (Gayle won!)
I fancy New Zealand to clinch this rain-affected series tonight but the price is too skinny to get involved. But if there is to be a game made of it, the West Indies need more runs, and it will give them hope that, despite their collapse in the loss of the 3rd ODI, Shiv Chanderpaul returned and looked like he'd never been away in amassing 45 - nearly twice as many as the next highest scorer. And if its not him who top scores its likely to be Chris Gayle coming off at the top of the order. But the weather and wickets have not been ideal for him so far, so I'll stick with Chanderpaul's scrappy accumulation.
2.30 Murphy 10/11, Murphy 6-5 11/2 - LOST
Shaun Murphy has already won one title this season, while Ding is struggling to fulfil his undoubted talent. But Murphy has the Indian sign over Ding. They have played each other five times in the last three seasons, and Murphy has won 4 of the meetings - the other was a 3-3 draw in the Premier League. However, three of those 4 victories went to the deciding frame, and the other was 9-7, so spectators can expect to get their money's worth. And I'd split your stakes here. Take Murphy to win at 10/11 and to win 6-5 at 11/2.
11.30 Chanderpaul top West Indian Bat 7/2 - LOST (Gayle won!)
I fancy New Zealand to clinch this rain-affected series tonight but the price is too skinny to get involved. But if there is to be a game made of it, the West Indies need more runs, and it will give them hope that, despite their collapse in the loss of the 3rd ODI, Shiv Chanderpaul returned and looked like he'd never been away in amassing 45 - nearly twice as many as the next highest scorer. And if its not him who top scores its likely to be Chris Gayle coming off at the top of the order. But the weather and wickets have not been ideal for him so far, so I'll stick with Chanderpaul's scrappy accumulation.
Friday, December 5, 2008
I'm A Celebrity, Horse Racing and Football
Am rolling November and December into one given the low level of tips last month. And will start today with a mixed bag of tips. Read, consider and feel free to comment.
George Takei 11/1 to win and 6/4 to win without Joe Swash
I hadnt watch any of I'm a Celebrity until about 20 minutes on Wednesday night and then the last 5 minutes last night, but early on a few people were banding around George as a possible dark horse to win this. Well he's still there, and dont underestimate the Trekkie vote. Jo Swash is way too short as we've seen contests like this make a mockery of short odds before, and while Martina Navratilova will have her fans, George at 11/1 is worth a small nibble. A cover at 6/4 on him to beat the Queen of Wimbledon.
Kauto Star 5/1 e/w Cheltenham Gold Cup
So Kauto got hosed by Denman last year, and fell last time out. Would you still want to bet against him finishing in the top 3 at Cheltenham? If so, please take my bet! He travelled perfectly well and it wasn't his jumping that actually caused his fall. I don't always agree with what Paul Nicholls says, but this time I do agree that he would have won that race, and if he had he wouldn't be 5/1 now. Each way is 1/4 odds for first three, so back him now each way, before he wins the King George again and that moves shorter.
Darren Bent top Spurs scorer 10/11
Paddy Power are still offering odds on Spurs top scorer in the Premier League this season. So far Darren Bent has 7, Roman Pavlyuchenko has 3, Jenas 2, and noone else more than 1. So Bent should be short odds on? Well Paddy has him at 10/11. Even if the Russian finds his Spartak Moscow form again of a goal every other game for the rest of the season he will only get to 13, leaving Bent to need 7 in 21 games - in a 'bad' season last year he scored 6 from 11 starts and 16 sub appearances, and his Spurs career has seen him net 13 from 22 starts and 20 sub appearances. Harry likes him, and will keep starting with him. Barring injury this is the safest place to put your money now savings rates are getting slashed again.
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3
This battle, as the bookies know, is a fight between West Brom and Stoke. Yes there is seven points and five teams between the sides currently, but Stoke are so one-dimensional that managers will quickly be realising the best plan to handle that and Stoke's main attack will be blunted - many managers will watch the video of this week's League Cup game and note how Derby handled Delap's long throws. In the next two weeks, Stoke have to go to a Newcastle side who are unbeaten at home since September and then at home to Fulham who have taken 8 points from their last 4 games, and lost just one of their last 4 away games. West Brom however have Pompey tomorrow who've won just one of their last 8 eight away games then a trip to fellow relegation contenders, managerless Sunderland. So that seven point gap could easily be halved by Christmas and 3 points over half a season isn't a lot to overcome. 10/3 will look too big.
George Takei 11/1 to win and 6/4 to win without Joe Swash
I hadnt watch any of I'm a Celebrity until about 20 minutes on Wednesday night and then the last 5 minutes last night, but early on a few people were banding around George as a possible dark horse to win this. Well he's still there, and dont underestimate the Trekkie vote. Jo Swash is way too short as we've seen contests like this make a mockery of short odds before, and while Martina Navratilova will have her fans, George at 11/1 is worth a small nibble. A cover at 6/4 on him to beat the Queen of Wimbledon.
Kauto Star 5/1 e/w Cheltenham Gold Cup
So Kauto got hosed by Denman last year, and fell last time out. Would you still want to bet against him finishing in the top 3 at Cheltenham? If so, please take my bet! He travelled perfectly well and it wasn't his jumping that actually caused his fall. I don't always agree with what Paul Nicholls says, but this time I do agree that he would have won that race, and if he had he wouldn't be 5/1 now. Each way is 1/4 odds for first three, so back him now each way, before he wins the King George again and that moves shorter.
Darren Bent top Spurs scorer 10/11
Paddy Power are still offering odds on Spurs top scorer in the Premier League this season. So far Darren Bent has 7, Roman Pavlyuchenko has 3, Jenas 2, and noone else more than 1. So Bent should be short odds on? Well Paddy has him at 10/11. Even if the Russian finds his Spartak Moscow form again of a goal every other game for the rest of the season he will only get to 13, leaving Bent to need 7 in 21 games - in a 'bad' season last year he scored 6 from 11 starts and 16 sub appearances, and his Spurs career has seen him net 13 from 22 starts and 20 sub appearances. Harry likes him, and will keep starting with him. Barring injury this is the safest place to put your money now savings rates are getting slashed again.
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3
This battle, as the bookies know, is a fight between West Brom and Stoke. Yes there is seven points and five teams between the sides currently, but Stoke are so one-dimensional that managers will quickly be realising the best plan to handle that and Stoke's main attack will be blunted - many managers will watch the video of this week's League Cup game and note how Derby handled Delap's long throws. In the next two weeks, Stoke have to go to a Newcastle side who are unbeaten at home since September and then at home to Fulham who have taken 8 points from their last 4 games, and lost just one of their last 4 away games. West Brom however have Pompey tomorrow who've won just one of their last 8 eight away games then a trip to fellow relegation contenders, managerless Sunderland. So that seven point gap could easily be halved by Christmas and 3 points over half a season isn't a lot to overcome. 10/3 will look too big.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Football
Another delve into the football world after last week's near miss.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Football
As I mentioned in my October Update work has held me back from punting lately, but tonight there is a treble I really like the look of.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
October Update
Work haspicked up again so been a bit quiet on the punting front. Apologies!
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Football
Been a difficult few days to find good bets, but tonight there are a trio of football bets in three different formats. Surely there can't be as many goals tonight as last night, can there???
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Cricket
Another winner last night and Ronnie has seen off Marco Fu 5-1 this afternoon. That 2/1 was already 7/4 by this morning, and could well be in to nearly evens now. Am considering a golf bet for tomorrow, but for now its back to India.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Football and Snooker
Apologies for the lack of posts but the first couple of days of the international week have been slow and bare in terms of good bets, but there are a couple today.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Football
European rugby tonight, but I don't like the first round of cross-border competitions as there are too many unknowns. So I'm just sticking to tonight's league two clash. The cricket is developing nicely with India doing well to dismiss the Aussies for 430 after their start, and Sehwag looking in the mood.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Football and Darts
Gradually the sporting action is ramping back up towards the weekend. And Thursday night is darts night. The Premier League is not back yet, but every night this week we have the Sky Poker Grand Prix from Dublin, and all the big guns are out for the prize. And there's more non-league football to enjoy on Setanta. In amongst the highlights of the first day's play from Bangalore!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Cricket
Another quiet sporting day and no point in chasing bets when we're sat very nicely a week into the month. But a titanic clash starts tomorrow.
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Football
There's not much out there this week, although the darts might be a little more interesting as the week goes on, but tonight its the Johnstone Paints Trophy, giving Leeds an opportunity to relive those glory years of lifting silverware, and some Blue Square Premier games, which is where today's one bet comes from.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Football thoughts
Nothing worth betting on today, so we'll just nurse our winnings from last week and take a look at how things are shaping up now we have some meaningful form.
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
