Another delve into the football world after last week's near miss.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Football
As I mentioned in my October Update work has held me back from punting lately, but tonight there is a treble I really like the look of.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
October Update
Work haspicked up again so been a bit quiet on the punting front. Apologies!
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
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