An early tip, as I get bored of people asking me who's going to win the National, as if it was as easy as picking Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. For starters its a handicap, so its meant to be difficult to win and hence pick the winner. Add to that the unique distance and fences and it might look like a lottery. Its not quite that as there have only been 3 winners out of the last 18 priced bigger than 20/1 (and only 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 then), but it still isn't easy. But here goes.
The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.
So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Scottish Football
Annan Athletic to beat Albion Rovers 10/11
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Darts
Wade -3.5 v Klaasen Evens
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
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