Grand National

An early tip, as I get bored of people asking me who's going to win the National, as if it was as easy as picking Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. For starters its a handicap, so its meant to be difficult to win and hence pick the winner. Add to that the unique distance and fences and it might look like a lottery. Its not quite that as there have only been 3 winners out of the last 18 priced bigger than 20/1 (and only 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 then), but it still isn't easy. But here goes.

The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.

So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.