A quick note on the big handicap at Newmarket today.
3.35 Newmarket, Awinnersgame 9/2
This race has some really strong trends to it. The last three favourites have all gone in, and its 4 from the last 10 races. Even when the favourite hasn't won, the biggest price has been 9/1. So we can immediately cross the three outsiders off, and lean towards the two horses vying for favouritism - Awinnersgame and Courageous. The next trend to look at is a horse that has been in the first two over 7f before coming to Newmarket - four of the last five have done that and last year's winner really needed to stay the trip. The two favoured horses and third favourite Penny's Gift have all done that. You could look at the weights and say nothing under 8'10 has won in the last 10 years, but then the official ratings show that nothing rated higher than 106 on the official ratings has come in, and that could seem like a paradox, but there is only one horse in today's race that satisfies both those trends and its Awinnersgame. So he's ticks all the boxes. The other two will push him close, but you have to fancy Awinnersgame, especially if the market pushes him to favouritism.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Darts
Crunch time in Premier League now. Mardle is ill so Part's playing twice tonight.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
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