Racing

A quick note on the big handicap at Newmarket today.

3.35 Newmarket, Awinnersgame 9/2
This race has some really strong trends to it. The last three favourites have all gone in, and its 4 from the last 10 races. Even when the favourite hasn't won, the biggest price has been 9/1. So we can immediately cross the three outsiders off, and lean towards the two horses vying for favouritism - Awinnersgame and Courageous. The next trend to look at is a horse that has been in the first two over 7f before coming to Newmarket - four of the last five have done that and last year's winner really needed to stay the trip. The two favoured horses and third favourite Penny's Gift have all done that. You could look at the weights and say nothing under 8'10 has won in the last 10 years, but then the official ratings show that nothing rated higher than 106 on the official ratings has come in, and that could seem like a paradox, but there is only one horse in today's race that satisfies both those trends and its Awinnersgame. So he's ticks all the boxes. The other two will push him close, but you have to fancy Awinnersgame, especially if the market pushes him to favouritism.