A quick note on the big handicap at Newmarket today.
3.35 Newmarket, Awinnersgame 9/2
This race has some really strong trends to it. The last three favourites have all gone in, and its 4 from the last 10 races. Even when the favourite hasn't won, the biggest price has been 9/1. So we can immediately cross the three outsiders off, and lean towards the two horses vying for favouritism - Awinnersgame and Courageous. The next trend to look at is a horse that has been in the first two over 7f before coming to Newmarket - four of the last five have done that and last year's winner really needed to stay the trip. The two favoured horses and third favourite Penny's Gift have all done that. You could look at the weights and say nothing under 8'10 has won in the last 10 years, but then the official ratings show that nothing rated higher than 106 on the official ratings has come in, and that could seem like a paradox, but there is only one horse in today's race that satisfies both those trends and its Awinnersgame. So he's ticks all the boxes. The other two will push him close, but you have to fancy Awinnersgame, especially if the market pushes him to favouritism.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Darts
Crunch time in Premier League now. Mardle is ill so Part's playing twice tonight.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
King -2.5 legs Evens
King has won 6 of his 9 matches so far, losing to Barney and Jenkins on one of his hot nights and drawing with the Power. He looked on top form last week destroying Wade. His wins have been 8-4 v Klaasen, 8-1 and 8-2 v Mardle, 8-1 and 8-3 v Wade, and 8-2 v Part. And Parts three losses have been 8-1, 8-2, 8-3. So King -2.5 legs at 10/11 is an absolute steal!!! I'd also have a touch on 8-2 and 8-1 at 10/1 and 25/1.
Jenkins -4.5 legs Evens
Jenkins is the definition in inconsistent, but he does tend to lift his game against the Power in the Premier League :
2007: Taylor 8-1 Jenkins, Taylor 8-6 Jenkins
2008: Jenkins 8-5 Taylor, Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
2009: Jenkins 7-7 Taylor
So unbeaten in 3, and the handicap tonight is 4.5 legs, which would only not have been covered in their first game in the Premier League. That is a no-brainer. And the draw at 7/1 has some appeal.
Barneveld 8-6 Wade 6/1
Barney was out of sorts when Wade beat him 8-4 earlier this season, with Wade coming back from 4-1 down. Last week though Wade looked out of sorts with his game and his mental approach - he needs to dump that slapper Chamberlain. Barney meanwhile was on fire in Glasgow and looked happy with himself and his game like he hasn't for a long time. Wade always scraps but I can't see him beating Barney tonight. Last year Barney beat him 8-6 twice. Try that again at 5/1.
Klaasen bt Part 6/4
Part plays twice as Mardle's ill and after a thrashing from Merv the last thing he'll want is to come out again against the improving Klaasen and his rapid fire delivery. He pushed Phil all the way and deserved a point last week, and beat Terry Jenkins the week before. He probably has to win every match now to qualify for the semi's but noone will fancy playing him between now and May. These two drew 7-7 in the previous meeting, but Klaasen is in better form now. Odds against is nice.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Grand National
An early tip, as I get bored of people asking me who's going to win the National, as if it was as easy as picking Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. For starters its a handicap, so its meant to be difficult to win and hence pick the winner. Add to that the unique distance and fences and it might look like a lottery. Its not quite that as there have only been 3 winners out of the last 18 priced bigger than 20/1 (and only 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 then), but it still isn't easy. But here goes.
The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.
So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.
The first thing to cross out is anything carrying over 11 stone. This statistic is poo-pooed every year as a fancied horse is asked to carry more, but every year it stands up. Ok yes, Hedgehunter did it, but then that was just 11st1lb, so only just stretches the trend. So yes, I'm saying avoid My Will at 11st 4. Secondly, look for something laid out for the race - certainly nothing that this is a second thought for after having a go at something at Cheltenham. It just doesn't happen. In fact the recent trend has seen the winner cast his handicap mark in stone by running over hurdles before the National. 8-12 is the age range you want, while 10 yr olds with 12 of the last 19 winners are the standout year group. And having done all that, your horse should have won a chase over at least 3 miles previously. This doesn't guarantee he will stay the trip at Liverpool, but it at least indicates some of the stamina required.
So who does that point to? Well the horse I really like already has Graham Lee booked to ride him and is Tom George's charge, the 10 year old Kilbeggan Blade. He won the London National in December at Sandown over three and a half miles, with an uphill finish. That is worth nearer four on Aintree's flat track. He went up 4lbs for that win and Tom George has preserved his handicap mark since then with just a win in a 3m hurdle at Towcester - beating Welsh National favourite Mon Mome by 4 lengths - and a 2nd in a 3mile hurdle at Warwick. The Sandown win was on GS, Towcester on Soft, and he won a similar race at Towcester in October on Good. He has also won on Heavy over 3m3f, so the going wont be a problem, however it comes up. The fact that he didn't go to Cheltenham and that Tom George has run him in two hurdles races as preps to save his handicap mark. Rambling Minster, who Kilbeggan beat at Sandown by 4.5 lengths is now 3lbs worse off, but best price 10/1. Hills have our horse at 25/1. Take it.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Scottish Football
Annan Athletic to beat Albion Rovers 10/11
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
You may not have heard of one or either of these teams, but that means the bookies probably only know them by name and stats and have never seen them play. But my Scottish lower league mole is much better genned up on this and assures me Annan would be value at half this price. Annan replaced Gretna in the Scottish league this season and have made a good fist of their first season, currently lying 4 points off second place and on a very good run of late. They have won 6 of their last 8 games, and their last three games have brought three wins and 11 goals, including wins over second-placed Dumbarton and more impressively, runaway leaders Cowdenbeath. Albion on the other hand, have not won any of their last 5 games and in doing so have blown their promotion chances for this season. Their away form was impressive early on, but they now haven't scored on their travels for three games, and it looks difficult to see the Wee Rovers turning that around in Dumfries tomorrow.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Darts
Wade -3.5 v Klaasen Evens
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
He's beaten Barney and the Power 8-4 now. Klaasen lost 8-2 to Phil, 8-4 to Merv, 8-6 to Mardle and drew with Jenkins, which are all quite consistent with the form book, in which you'd put Wadey up there with Phil and Barney. And Phil wasnt off form last week - he still averaged well over 100, Wadey just averaged a tocuh more. The easy option is -2.5 at 4/6 but -3.5 at Evns looks better to me
King to bt Taylor 6/1
Mervyn has won 4 out of four and convincingly. But Phil is still the Power, and he is normally at his best after a setback - and he has not won for the last two weeks. But sometimes you shouldn't ignore the obvious. Merv is playing well, Phil isnt playing badly but is vulnerable and 6/1 with Corals just looks too big to say no to. If you cant quite bring yourself to bet against Taylor, Skybet go 13/8 King +3.
Barney 8-4 and 8-5 5/1 and 6/1
Ok so Barneys only got one win and one draw so far, but the two losses are against Wade and Taylor. Mardle has found some double form in the last two weeks, but Barney is a step up from Klaasen who he beat and Jenkins where he got a draw. The handicap is 3.5 and I think that's about right so split your stakes on 8-4 at 5/1 and 8-5 at 6/1
Jenkins draw with Part 9/2
There have been 5 draws from 16 matches in the Premier League 2009 and these two have been involved in every single one. Jenkins is the draw specialist having taken Klaasen, Mardle and Taylor the distance and his match with Barney went the full 14 legs despite losing. Part's form has been his usual inconsistent - losing 8-2 to King, beating Mardle 8-1 and recording two draws with Wade and Barney. So in total these guys have recorded 5 draws from 8 games, and with the 5 from 16 overall, 9/2 has to be worth snapping up.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Golf, Snooker and Football
Its been busy here hence the lack of updates. I thought about shutting it all down, but I will get a few chances to post, just maybe not every day. But a few thoughts today, mainly on the snooker.
Anthony Kim to win the Johnnie Walker Classic 4/1 (LOST -1.00)
Kim has posted two 68s now and is 2 shots off the leader at the end of the second round. There are no established names above him so 4/1 is a good price for the young American to pick up the spoils.
10.00 Maguire to beat Swail 5-4 and 5-3 (1/2pt each) at 7/1 and 5/1 (LOST -2.00 - it did go to the wire but unfortunately went the wrong way)
Maguire snook through against Ding yesterday, coming back from 4-2 down to snatch victory and should reach the semi's today. He is 6-0 versus Joe Swail and two of those have gone to the deciding frame, including a 9-8, but the last two matches were 9-5 and 13-8 so we should cover 5-4 and 5-3.
4.00 Hamilton+2.5 legs versus Selby 8/11 (WON -1.27 - Hamilton not only covered the handicap but won 5-3)
Mark Selby is the favourite for the tournament now Ronnie is out, and I expect him to go through at 1/4, but Anthony Hamilton is in decent form and will push him all the way, so 8/11 to get 3 frames or more sounds good to me.
7.00 Fu to beat Robertson 6/5 (LOST 5-2 -2.27 - Mraco just never turned up after beating Ronnie the day before)
I backed Marco Fu yesterday at 5/2 to beat Ronnie and had virtually torn my slip up at 3-1 down when he touched 12/1 in running. But he then won 4 frames in a row to take out the world number one. These two met twice last season, drawing once in the Malta Cup and Fu winning 6-5 at the Masters, so expect a close one. But given Hills are offering odds against for Fu, that has to be snapped up.
Saturday 1.00 Derby draw no bet versus Forest 6/5 (WON 3-1 -1.07 - We should have taken the outright win, but the victory alone was sweet enough!)
Derby have been a different side since Nigel Clough's appointment, and he is finally getting the players to perform at or near their potential, while Billy Davies had a brief honeymoon period but normal service is now resumed. Derby have won their last three league games, while Forest have drawn one and lost four of their last five games in all competitions - including losing 3-2 to Derby in the cup after being 2-0 up. That will be fresh in their memories, along with how Kris Commons tore them apart. He was instrumental in Derby's 4-1 win over Blackpool on Wednesday too, and will relish another shot at his former employers. I can see Derby winning, but as it is a local Derby, maybe some caution should be urged and the 6/5 draw no bet seems the best way.
Anthony Kim to win the Johnnie Walker Classic 4/1 (LOST -1.00)
Kim has posted two 68s now and is 2 shots off the leader at the end of the second round. There are no established names above him so 4/1 is a good price for the young American to pick up the spoils.
10.00 Maguire to beat Swail 5-4 and 5-3 (1/2pt each) at 7/1 and 5/1 (LOST -2.00 - it did go to the wire but unfortunately went the wrong way)
Maguire snook through against Ding yesterday, coming back from 4-2 down to snatch victory and should reach the semi's today. He is 6-0 versus Joe Swail and two of those have gone to the deciding frame, including a 9-8, but the last two matches were 9-5 and 13-8 so we should cover 5-4 and 5-3.
4.00 Hamilton+2.5 legs versus Selby 8/11 (WON -1.27 - Hamilton not only covered the handicap but won 5-3)
Mark Selby is the favourite for the tournament now Ronnie is out, and I expect him to go through at 1/4, but Anthony Hamilton is in decent form and will push him all the way, so 8/11 to get 3 frames or more sounds good to me.
7.00 Fu to beat Robertson 6/5 (LOST 5-2 -2.27 - Mraco just never turned up after beating Ronnie the day before)
I backed Marco Fu yesterday at 5/2 to beat Ronnie and had virtually torn my slip up at 3-1 down when he touched 12/1 in running. But he then won 4 frames in a row to take out the world number one. These two met twice last season, drawing once in the Malta Cup and Fu winning 6-5 at the Masters, so expect a close one. But given Hills are offering odds against for Fu, that has to be snapped up.
Saturday 1.00 Derby draw no bet versus Forest 6/5 (WON 3-1 -1.07 - We should have taken the outright win, but the victory alone was sweet enough!)
Derby have been a different side since Nigel Clough's appointment, and he is finally getting the players to perform at or near their potential, while Billy Davies had a brief honeymoon period but normal service is now resumed. Derby have won their last three league games, while Forest have drawn one and lost four of their last five games in all competitions - including losing 3-2 to Derby in the cup after being 2-0 up. That will be fresh in their memories, along with how Kris Commons tore them apart. He was instrumental in Derby's 4-1 win over Blackpool on Wednesday too, and will relish another shot at his former employers. I can see Derby winning, but as it is a local Derby, maybe some caution should be urged and the 6/5 draw no bet seems the best way.
Summary / Update
After just over a year in existence the final results are in and we're in profit:
£14.11 profit
37% sucess rate (138/374)
And the outstanding bets are:
Anelka Top Scorer e/w 16/1 - currently three clear of Ronaldo and Robinho
Bent Top Scorer e/w 25/1 - with a group of seven on nine goals, one off fourth spot for the each way money
Bent to be Top Spurs Scorer 10/11 - his nine are 6 ahead of next highest scorer Pavlyuchenko
Kauto Star e/w 5/1 - As predicted Kauto romped the King George and Denman's poor return run has seen our horse go to 2/1 while Denman slumps to 11/2
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3 - the gap to West Brom was 9 points when we put this bet on. Its now just 2, and Stoke are 6/4
Stoke to be relegated 8/11 - Blackburn only need a point from their game in hand against Fulham to drop the Potters into the bottom three, and I think its those three that are there that will go down.
£14.11 profit
37% sucess rate (138/374)
And the outstanding bets are:
Anelka Top Scorer e/w 16/1 - currently three clear of Ronaldo and Robinho
Bent Top Scorer e/w 25/1 - with a group of seven on nine goals, one off fourth spot for the each way money
Bent to be Top Spurs Scorer 10/11 - his nine are 6 ahead of next highest scorer Pavlyuchenko
Kauto Star e/w 5/1 - As predicted Kauto romped the King George and Denman's poor return run has seen our horse go to 2/1 while Denman slumps to 11/2
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3 - the gap to West Brom was 9 points when we put this bet on. Its now just 2, and Stoke are 6/4
Stoke to be relegated 8/11 - Blackburn only need a point from their game in hand against Fulham to drop the Potters into the bottom three, and I think its those three that are there that will go down.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Snooker
The Punter is back! A prolonged break but I can't resist the snooker so here we go...
2.30 Murphy 10/11, Murphy 6-5 11/2 - LOST
Shaun Murphy has already won one title this season, while Ding is struggling to fulfil his undoubted talent. But Murphy has the Indian sign over Ding. They have played each other five times in the last three seasons, and Murphy has won 4 of the meetings - the other was a 3-3 draw in the Premier League. However, three of those 4 victories went to the deciding frame, and the other was 9-7, so spectators can expect to get their money's worth. And I'd split your stakes here. Take Murphy to win at 10/11 and to win 6-5 at 11/2.
11.30 Chanderpaul top West Indian Bat 7/2 - LOST (Gayle won!)
I fancy New Zealand to clinch this rain-affected series tonight but the price is too skinny to get involved. But if there is to be a game made of it, the West Indies need more runs, and it will give them hope that, despite their collapse in the loss of the 3rd ODI, Shiv Chanderpaul returned and looked like he'd never been away in amassing 45 - nearly twice as many as the next highest scorer. And if its not him who top scores its likely to be Chris Gayle coming off at the top of the order. But the weather and wickets have not been ideal for him so far, so I'll stick with Chanderpaul's scrappy accumulation.
2.30 Murphy 10/11, Murphy 6-5 11/2 - LOST
Shaun Murphy has already won one title this season, while Ding is struggling to fulfil his undoubted talent. But Murphy has the Indian sign over Ding. They have played each other five times in the last three seasons, and Murphy has won 4 of the meetings - the other was a 3-3 draw in the Premier League. However, three of those 4 victories went to the deciding frame, and the other was 9-7, so spectators can expect to get their money's worth. And I'd split your stakes here. Take Murphy to win at 10/11 and to win 6-5 at 11/2.
11.30 Chanderpaul top West Indian Bat 7/2 - LOST (Gayle won!)
I fancy New Zealand to clinch this rain-affected series tonight but the price is too skinny to get involved. But if there is to be a game made of it, the West Indies need more runs, and it will give them hope that, despite their collapse in the loss of the 3rd ODI, Shiv Chanderpaul returned and looked like he'd never been away in amassing 45 - nearly twice as many as the next highest scorer. And if its not him who top scores its likely to be Chris Gayle coming off at the top of the order. But the weather and wickets have not been ideal for him so far, so I'll stick with Chanderpaul's scrappy accumulation.
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