Thursday, January 31, 2008

Football and Darts

Back on the winning way, but the gladiators are back tonight! Welcome back the Premier League of Darts!!!

5pm Senegal bt South Africa 5/6 (LOST +25.96 - a dour 1-1 where both sides played like the knew they were going out)
South Africa have been overhyped with the World Cup going there etc, but Senegal are the best country on that continent by a long way.

7.30pm Raymond Van Barneveld bt Wayne Mardle (2/5) and Phil Taylor v James Wade (9/10) Double 83/50 (LOST +24.96 - Barney beat Mardle, but the Power couldn't hit his doubles with his new darts, and he gifted the game to Wade)
This is the big time, and despite Mardle's World Title he is still erratic and i expect Barney to dispatch him, and the Power to extend his 44 match unbeaten run.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Racing

Cant see too much on the football front today, and with evrything quiet before the Premier League of Darts kicks off tomorrow, its just acouple of horses today.

1.40 Newcastle Native Coll 5/2 (LOST +23.63 - made a mistake four out, but the winner was mighty impressive)
Native Coll was a good winner last time out at Newcastle over the same trip to get off the mark, and no coincidence it was the first time Graham Lee had taken the reins. He has a 38% strike rate over fences at Newcastle and I expect him to make it 2 from 2 on this horse today.

2.20 Exeter Kornati Kid 10/3 (WON +26.96 - excellent run and Richard Johnson earned his money after the horses nose grazed the grass at the last)
He seems to like the longer trip and liked the cut last time out at Wincanton. After four runs, Richard Johnson gets the ride for the first timie which says it all for me

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Football

A flat day on return. But Matuhi is definitely one to keep in mind for future. Just the football today.

5pm Nigeria (2/9) & Darlington (8/13) & Stockport (11/8) Treble 3.69/1 (LOST +25.63 - Nigeria and Darlington won convincingly but Stockport drew 2-2 in what seemed a fair result)
Nigeria have performed below par so far but benin are a poor outfit and so Nigeria should register their first victory.
Darlington have taken 10 points from their last 4 games and Dave Penney is looking to recreate what he did at Doncaster as the Quakers edge into 3rd spot. Accrington meanwhile have conceded 15 goals in their last 4 including losing 8-2 to Peterborough last time out! They will get enough points to stay up which must have been their aim, but I don't see any coming tonight.
Stockport have won their last four games, while Chesterfield's push for a playoff spot has faltered taking only 3 points from their last four games, so Edgeley Park would not be the ideal place to be going right now. Take Stockport to add value to our treble.

8pm Sunderland to draw with Birmingham 9/4 (LOST +24.63 - Sunderland picked up a key three points with a 2-0 victory)
The relegation battle now seems to be one from 6 with Derby and Fulham as good as gone. And so neither side will want to lose this one. Sunderland's goal difference at home is zero in 11 games, and while Birmingham have lost 8 of 12 away games, they have lost 1-0 after hard fought efforts at Old Trafford and the Emirates in recent weeks. I expect their efforts to be worth a point tonight, and was tempted by 0-0, but I'll stick with just the draw.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Racing and Football

Well I'm back from the slopes after a rather unpleasant delay in Geneva yesterday, but no time to waste, lets get back into the action and head to Ludlow this afternoon before some football tonight

3.30 Ludlow Matuhi 2/1 (WON +28.63 - Ouzbeck pulled up with more than half the race to go, but Matuhi accelerated away from the field so well when Noel Fehily pressed the button)
Matuhi ran well on debut over hurdles at Leicester last time and Gary Moore's winner, Numide, looked a good thing. This time Matuhi receives 7lbs from the favourite, Ouzbeck, and I expect that to be enough.

4.00 Ludlow Prince Vector 5/1 e/w (LOST +27.63 - The race was run at a very strong pace and neither Prince Vector ot Panjo Bere went with the pace and were soon found wanting)
Panjo Bere looked good in his victories, but I feel his last run showed the handicapper may be ahead of him now, so with 5/1 the field, leaves a few decent each way prices. Prince Vector seemed to appreciate the minimum trip last time and so at 5/1 e/w he seems a decent insurance bet.

7.45 Palace to beat Leicester 13/8 (LOST 0-1 +26.63 - It all looked like a 0-0 was on the cards until 83 year-old journeyman Barry Hayles netted a much-needed winner for the Foxes after good old Stevie Howard had done his best to keep the bet running!)
It took Neil Warnock a while to turn things around at Selhurst Park, but once he did there's been no stopping them. Unbeaten in 15 league games, they have risen to 5th and I think they are a decent bet to join West Brom in the automatic promotion positions. Leicester however, are still waiting for the Ollie effect, with only 2 wins in 11 games (one against an Ipswich side yet to win on the road) under their latest manager. They have taken just 17 points from 14 home games, while Palace have amassed 23 in the same number away from home. And with Clinton Morrison having bagged 11 in his last 13 league games, I expect the Warnock juggernaut to continue.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

AWAY

The CityPunter is away snowboarding til 28th January

Friday, January 18, 2008

Snooker and Rugby

A near miss on the double yesterday, but its still a losing bet, but that still doesn't mean I'm changing too much in my analysis today. While I'm talking analysis, I'd just like to mention a friend's site. While I do post the odd horse racing bet here, a friend of mine is focussing exclusively on equine affairs and has some interesting analysis. Take a look for yourself and let him know what you think theanalystbets.blogspot.com

6pm Ding Junhui to beat Marco Fu 6-4 11/2 (LOST 6-3 +27.63 - After his century in frame 3 I expected Ding to kick on, but he didn't really get going again and Fu cruised through)
You should all know by now how highly I rate Ding's ability with a cue, but he also showed character to come from behind and beat John Higgins, and with O'Sullivan and Maguire already out, he should be feeling he has a great chance of taking his first title of the season. Marco Fu had a comfortable win over Steve Davis as we know, and is in decent form this season, but he does leave his opponents chances, and you can't do that and expect to escape against Ding. Therefore I expect Fu to get into the match, but Ding to win with a frame to spare.

8pm Glasgow+4 to beat Saracens 10/11 (LOST +26.63 - Well the handicap was spot on, 4pts! Close but no cigar)
This is a strange match when you look at what is at stake and the unusually available head-to-head form between these two teams. For starters, Saracens can afford to lose the game as long as they get the bonus point for not losing by more than 7 points if Glasgow get the bonus point for scoring 4 or more tries. That doesn't mean I expect Sarries to come out and not give it 100%, but they may be able to ease down towards the end of the game if it is low scoring or they are nicely on top. However, I don't see the latter occurring. In the game at Vicarage Road earlier in the season, Saracens snook home 33-31, and in the group game and quarter-final match between the two sides at the same venue last season, the English side won 23-19 and 28-23. Suggesting that home advantage was abut the only difference between the teams. And the game in Glasgow last season was a 6-6 nail biter, so further backing up the theory that there will be little between these sides. The weather forecast for Glasgow today is heavy rain, windy and temperatures dropping to 2 degrees - all pointers to a low-scoring game, again keeping the final result close, if it needed any more help. So with all that, I was surprised to see Saracens giving Glasgow 4 points on the handicap in several places, while some bookies are only offering 2 points. I would actually have had it as 0 or 1, so I will be taking full advantage of the generosity around.

And this isn't a tip, but make of it what you will. Taxi drivers in Dublin are pretty sure El Tel is lined up for the Republic of Ireland manager's job.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Snooker

Another winning snooker correct score. I'm sure a few of you must have written it off at 5-2 like I did, which makes it all the sweeter. So today its just snooker again.

1 Maguire bt Selby 8/13 doubled with Doherty to bt Murphy 11/8, 2.84/1 (LOST +28.63 - the first leg looked in the bag as Maguire moved to 5-3, but Selby denied us, before, as always happens Ken Doherty obliged with a storming comeback of his own. Hopefully you might have backed him outright after Maguire lost, as to come back from 4-1 down to win 6-5 with three century breaks in four frames was impressive, and he could yet go all the way if he keeps playing the way he is)
Maguire is the form player on tour this season and while Mark Selby is by no means the worst, I don't see him troubling the favourite for the tournament this afternoon. 8/13 is a fair price, but to enhance the value, I would suggest doubling it with Ken Doherty. As you will have seen earlier in the week, he turned in a stylish performance to beat Mark Williams, and if he can reproduce anywhere near that level, his form of old, then 11/8 will quickly fall in running.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Snooker and Football

Well we couldn't quite extend the winning run to three but we'll plug on with the snooker today. And I've had a few people ask me where I get the best prices. Unsurprisingly there is no one bookie consistently offering the best odds, so the next best thing is www.oddschecker.com which allows you to compare almost all prices on a particular market, and make sure that even if you're not getting the absolute best price, you are at least not getting the worst.

1.30 Ding Junhui to beat John Higgins 10/11 doubled with Rangers to beat Gretna 1/4 (WON +23.13 - Ding started slowly but found his form and won 6-4. Rangers were 1-1 at half-time and won 2-1, which wasn't as comfortable as expected, but its a win nonetheless)
Ding is the second most talented player on the circuit after Ronnie O'Sullivan, but has a much better temperament, and in time will undoubtedly become World Champion and Number One. He is yet to win a tournament this season with only quarter-final appearances to show, but he played well at Wembley last year, only to lose to Ronnie in the face of a fairly hostile pro-Ronnie crowd. Higgins however is in decline. He has had two first round losses and a two second round losses this season, and is struggling to buy a win. So quite how Sportingbet have both players at 10/11 is beyond me.
Rangers are champions elect for me in Scotland if they don't lose their rescheduled New Years match with Celtic. And Gretna have finally found a ceiling to their rapid rise and have just 10 points from 20 games. Rangers beat them 4-0 earlier in the season before really getting into gear, so 1/4 is just buying money and safer than having your savings in Northern Rock!

7pm Stephen Lee to beat Graham Dott 6-5 13/2 (WON +29.63 - This looked dead and buried at 5-2 to the Scot, but Lee is a gutsy, some would say dull, grinder of a player, and he clawed his way back with the help of a couple of misses from Dott, and in goes another correct score)
I was going to just tip Stephen Lee to win this, as their form has been pretty evenly poor this season, but Lee has a 5-1 head-to-head record, so odds on looks a good bet. However, and maybe I'm still getting carried away with Monday's wins, 6-5 has a real good look about it. Dott's one win over Lee was their last match, in the Shanghai Masters earlier this season and the score then was 6-5. Their previous encounter was at Wembley last year, and the scoreline? 6-5 of course. You could do worse than back both players 6/5 as some insurance, but given Lee beat Dott at Wembley in 2005 (6-2 this time) I'm going to side with him and go for it.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Snooker

Not much time to wallow in the two nicely priced winning tips, and not much to reinvest some winnings in today. I don't like betting on the FA Cup as you never know what sides Premier League teams will put out, so I'm going to stick to yesterday's winning venue, Wembley Arena.

1.30pm Williams to beat Doherty 6-4 6/1 (LOST 6-2 +20.74 - form really went out the window for these two in what was a high quality match. It all looked to be going well at 2-0 to Williams, but then Doherty played sublimely to go to 4-2, before a couple of mistakes by Williams let Dohert close it out - watch Doherty for the rest of this tournament now)
Before the Uk Champs last month this would have been a wooden spoon match for two former top, top (as Jamie Redknapp might say) players. Both lost in the first round of the Shanghai Masters, both were hammered (Williams 5-1 in 1st Rd, Doherty 5-0 in 2nd) by Gerard Greene in the Northern Ireland Trophy. And Doherty lost in the first round of the Royal London Grand Prix. Williams however, found his form, and made his way to the quarte-finals where he lost to eventual runner-up and favourite of this tournament Steven Maguire, with some excellent performances in two 9-5 and 9-3 wins. So Williams has taken favouritism with the bookies, justifiably so, and if you want to be cautious back him at 5/6, but after yesterday lets be a little reckless and go for another correct score. I don't expect Williams to embarrass Doherty but I do expect him to have control so I'll plump for 6-4.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Snooker and Football

Another odds on shot goes badly awry as Harry Redknapp turns down Newcastle - Hills had even closed their book on Friday afternoon because they thought it was a done deal. New manager markets are dangerous to take short prices, as £100 here or there can really move prices and on very little hard fact. As for sport this week, well for the first time in nearly a month we have no darts, but the snooker's back!

11am Fu 6-2 Davis 6/1 (WON +18.99 - a good showing from Fu and despite a drawn out 7th frame the scoreline looked on once Fu went 2-0 up)
Marco Fu has found his form again this season, having won the Royal London Grand Prix in October, beating John Higgins and then Ronnie in the final, and reaching the quarter-finals of the UK Champs last month. Steve Davis however is grimy hanging on having now reached 50 years of age. He was knocked out of the Grand prix 5-1 in the second round, and 5-0 in the second round of the Northern Ireland Trophy before going down 9-4 in the first round of the UK Champs. Hence Fu is only 4/9, but with his confidence high, and Davis tendency to roll over easily these days I am going for 6-2

7.45 Leeds to beat Crewe 1-0, 2-0 13/2, 17/2 (WON 1-0 + 21.74 - solid performance from Leeds and Jermaine Beckford found the net again after a few games without a goal)
Everyone knows the Leeds story this season, but there results have come about in the right way. In 13 matches against teams in the bottom half of the table they have conceded only 7 goals and kept 10 clean sheets in 25 games. And away from home they have won 6 out of 12, but only scored more than 2 goals on one occasion. Crewe are the reverse, having played four matches against top 7 sides and are yet to score, and have lost three of them 2-0. So I don't see them getting on the scoresheet tonight, and expect Leeds to move up to third with either a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. Half a point on each.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Rugby and Darts

Hope you all enjoyed the maths lesson on Asian handicaps yesterday and how now added them to your betting arsenal.

6pm Fitton & Gulliver Double 6/4 (LOST +12.08 - Fitton went toe to toe with Webster and while he matched the champion elect's scoring average, he couldn't match his doubles and Webster went through. And in the women's final a new era is dawning. Could this see Russia start to dominate womens darts as they have womens tennis, and bring with them some glamour?)
One of my Scottish correspondents believes Darryl Fitton will go all the way in the World Champs and after watching Wolfie Adams limp through last night, I wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing him. And so I think he should be tighter than 5/6 to beat Mark Webster tonight.
To give yourself a better return I'd roll those winnings onto Trina Gulliver to win the women's final at 9pm. Trina is the female Phil Taylor, having won the Women's World title for the last 7 years. Her oponent, Anastasia Dobromyslova is a decent player bit shouldn't trouble 'The Golden Girl'.

8pm Quins+13 vs Cardiff 10/11 (WON +12.99 - A couple of late tries saw the score swing around the handicap mark, but 23-12 was the final score giving us 2 points of margin)
I had the misfortune of watching the reverse of this fixture at the Stoop and it was a dour affair edged by Cardiff. Quins took a bit of a hammering at the hands of Leicester last Sunday, but Cardiff are no Leicester, and weather forecasts for Cardiff are heavy rain, wind and 2 degrees. All the ingredients for a low scoring game, which I expect Cardiff to win but not by as much as the handicap.




There won't be a blog on Sunday and may not be tomorrow. If I don't get to do one tomorrow, Derby are 19/10 tomorrow to beat Wigan at home. Of late, Derby's performances have been better they have just suffered from a combination of bad luck and individual errors, costing them maybe 7 points. With a new midfield led by Robbie Savage and a new centre forward keen to impress, and who has spent two weeks training with his new teammates, Paul Jewell getting his first win at the expense of his former club looks a definite possibility.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Football and Golf

Time for another winner after a couple of barren days. For those of you who don't know how Asian handicaps work, you get your stake split into two handicaps and then both are 'draw no bet' bets. ie, If tonight you had £20 on Real Mallorca+0.25 at Evens, you have £10 at Evens on Mallorca with 0 handicap, and £10 at Evens on Mallorca +0.5 goals. So if Mallorca win the game outright, you win on both halves of the bet and win £20. If Mallorca lose the game, you will lose on both sides and lose £20. However if the game is drawn, you will get your stake returned on the 0 handicap half and win on the +0.5 half, hence winning £10. Its a good way to back an underdog who you don't think will lose, ut may only get a draw.

5.50 Charles Howell to win 3-ball v Sluman and Wetterich 6/5 (LOST by one shot +13.03 - Howell parred the first 16 holes, and when he birdied the 17th he went level with Wetterich. However, there was no hare and tortoise story as Wetterich birdied 18 to shoot -2. Sluman shot +3)
After an over par first round last week Chucky Threesticks ended up 8th, 5 shots off the lead and improved with every round. He has a good record at Waialae and was runner-up last year. Sluman won here in 1999 but is now a much older player and Wetterich shouldnt upset the apple cart.

9pm Real Mallorca +0.25 Asian Handicap v Real Madrid 20/19 (WON 2-1 +14.08 - Congratulations if you were brave enough to back them outright as Mallorca gave Real something to think about in the Bernabeu next week)
Real Mallorca take this competition seriously, witnessed by their 4-0 defeat of Osasuna in the last round. Madrid however treat it like the Carling Cup and in the last round snook through after a 2-1 win in the home leg saw them through 3-2. And they have left a whole host of stars in Madrid tonight - Cannavaro, Metzelder, Heinze, Soldado, Robben, Baptista, Casillas, Diarra and Van Nistelrooy - with only 5 of the weekend's XI in the 16. So I can fully see Mallorca getting something here. A win may be just too much, but the draw is possible and so the Asian handicap seems a good place to play

10.10 Stricker to win 3-ball v Wilson/Funk 20/21 (LOST by 2 shots +13.08 - Stricker was facing an early exit after reaching the turn at +3, but fought back well on the back 9 to finish tied with Wilson on +1, while Funk shot -1. That comeback means I will be looking to get with Stricker again this weekend)
As you will have read yesterday Stricker is a player who's game is on the up and he's already approaching the top (or second top, given the top spot is out of reach of mere mortals), and this week will be a good chance for him to secure more prize money early in the season after his runner up spot last week. Wilson finished 17 shots behind Stricker last week and Funk 16, and Stricker beat them both in every round. Expect that to extend to 8 rounds here.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Darts and Long Term Golf...

Very little to go on today so I'll give you my tip for the day then look at a couple of long-term bets that have been brought to my attention.

7.45 Co Stompe to beat Brian Woods 10/11 (LOST 4-2 +14.03 - when he checked out with a 170 to go 2-2 I thought Co had finally found his aim, but he capitulated thereafter and heads home)
Stompe is a man I like and I expect the postman to deliver again. He had a 3-dart average of over 90 in the first round (not up to the best of the PDC, but good enough in BDO), and he could be worth an e/w bet to win the whole thing at 20/1 as he does score heavily and will get the full support of the Dutch travelling fans. Woods also averaged over 90 but had probably his best night ever with doubles - he could have thrown them left handed and they still would have gone in the way he was going on. So I expect Stompe to progress.


Ryder Cup
September sees the one golf competition everyone enjoys watching, and after winning the last 3, Europe are favourites again. But this is back on US soil, and with Faldo as captain I don't see this team having the same spirit as recent times. No doubt the US are better man for man, and on their home patch 5/4 seems too good to miss, and I'd expect them to be favourites come the off. I'll be there all week to give you as much info from the course as I can!

US Tour Money List w/o Woods
Tiger will sweep all before him again so the market to look at in the US is without him. Mickelson, Furyk and Singh are the obvious big names but with time catching up on the first two it is time to look beyond them for real value. Lefty played more tournaments (22) last season than the previous three, but made less cuts and had less top 10 and top 25 finishes. Vijay's cut making is consistently high - 25 from 27 in last two seasons, but his top 10s has fallen from 18 in 2004 to 7 last year, and top 25s from 24 to 16. Furyk has only missed 2 or 3 cuts in the last 3 seasons, but Top 10s has gone 10-13-8 and Top 25s 14-19-16. The man on the up is Steve Stricker. He had 9 Top 10 finishes from 23 starts last season, and 14 Top 25s, both up over 25% on the previous season, and he started this season well finishing second in a playoff at the weekend. He was 4th last season, just $65,000 behind Singh who was 3rd, and $500,000 ahead of Furyk who is 5/1. Stricker's price? 16/1. And with each way paying 1/4 odds for the first three, this has to be snapped up.

Thanks must go to Big Davie for alerting me to the latter's price!

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Racing and Football

Made up for the poor weekend somewhat yesterday thanks to Co Stompe, and today we are back to the staple diet of racing and football.

2.50 Leicester Planet of Sound 11/8 (LOST +16.03 - 4th. Someone obviously fancied it as it was backed from 2/1 to 13/8 favourite on course while Numide, who went on to win drifted from Evens to 7/4. Maybe wants firmer ground, maybe just a difficult one)
Philip Hobbs had a hat-trick of winners with his first three runners yesterday, but today he only has two runners, and the one I think will take the top prize is his novice hurdler who won well at Chepstow on his hurdles debut. He was just touched off at Exeter last time out, but I expect him to overcome Gary Moore's French flat convert Numide.

7.45 Chelsea 1-0 Everton 6/1 (LOST +15.03 - while my Everton supporting rapper mate, M to the Shuffle B, has kept up his losing record watching his team in London, but what a bizarre game. Until Obi's sending off I thought we might be in but all hell broke loose then!)
Chelsea have won 1-0 five games out of 32 this season, and 4 out 23 against Premiership opposition, while 3 of Everton's 8 defeats have been 1-0, and only two by more than a single goal. First legs are often cagey low-scoring affairs, so with that and the above stats taken into account 1-0 Chelsea looks a decent bet at 6/1. I know my Everton supporting mates won't like this but given Everton's record when they watch them in London, it strengthens my convictions even more!

Monday, January 7, 2008

Darts and Football

Slightly disappointing weekend but we'll look to put that right today with some darts and non-league football.

On a different point, a few people have been asking about which bookies to use. The one with the best odds is the obvious answer, but it is difficult to manage several accounts. I use Bet365 most as they are regularly best price or near enough, offer markets on just about everything going, and have a very good website and mobile phone version. They also do 'guaranteed best price' on horse racing - you take the price before the off and if the SP is higher you get the SP. They do the usual free bet offers that most bookies do these days when you join as well. Would be interesting to know your thoughts on various bookies good and bad. Please comment down below.

5.45 Co Stompe to beat Carl Mercer 3-0 3/1 (WON +18.03 - Co did exactly as per the script!)
Always liked the way Stompe plays and he's always a good bet to score heavily and make it through the early rounds, and today he plays a guy who is yet to register a world ranking point this season, so a 3-0 drubbing looks god value.

7.45 Torquay to draw with Burton Albion 12/5 (LOST +17.03 - Burton won 2-1, Burton withstood a lot of Torquay pressure in the second half and Torquay hit the bar twice, but that's why they're 13 away games unbeaten)
Torquay have an excellent home record winning 9 of their 11 at Plainmoor but the one loss was against 5th place Cambridge. They scraped a 1-0 win last time out against local rivals Exeter, but Burton are a better side. Nigel Clough has followed his dad's strategy that you win games from the back, and his Burton side are yet to lose in 12 games away from the Pirelli Stadium. They also beat Torquay 3-1 in September, and Daryl Clare's recent return from injury and suspension is another boost. However, they have only drawn 7 of the 12 away games, so that seems the most likely result tonight.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Golf

Disappointing day yesterday although Mike Weir got us some back. Brechin v Berwick was interesting as someone obviously had a big amount on as Corals were only taking £55 maximum bets. Hope it wasn't any of you who missed out. Just the golf today.

8.30 Weir to win Merecedes Benz Championship 6/4 (LOST +15.14 - Two early bogies meant Weir could only shoot -3 and finish 2 shots off a playoff spot)
As you know I've been watching Weir all week and he's been consistently good. His challengers are there after 1 exceptional round out of three whereas he ahs played three good rounds. i expect him to go on and win it tonight.

9.50pm Chuck Howell to beat Mark Calcavecchia 10/11 (WON +16.03 - Calc played well to shoot -5 but Chucky Threesticks went one better)
Chuck has been solid all week and although Calc has too, his back was stiffening up towards the end of yesterday's round, and he didn't look comfortable. On that basis alone he's worth taking on.

10.10 Vijay Singh to beat Brent Snedecker 4/6 (LOST +15.03 - Three birdies in last 5 holes meant Snedecker tied Vijay at -3 after Vijay had reached the mark after 11 but couldn't find any more)
Vijay hasn't quite justified his favouritism this week, but he'll be keen to sign off with a good round and should show his class against Snedecker.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Football, Racing and Golf

FA Cup 3rd round day, but the dominance of the Big 4, sides playing weakened sides and the gulf between Premiership and the rest means its lost some sparkle for me, upsets are rare these days, and they are a poor medium for betting. So I'm back to lower leagues and Scotland again for the football.

3.00 2 singles, 1 double (2/1 with Betfred) :

Rochdale bt Lincoln 4/6 (LOST 2-0 +18.14 - two quick goals on the break in second half finished this one)
Rochdale have won 5 and drawn 2 of their last 7 games and are now pushing for a playoff spot. Lincoln however have lost 4 of their last six and 9 of their 13 away games this season. I expect it to be 10 by 5pm today.

Brechin bt Berwick 4/5 (LOST +17.14 - 2-0 up with five to go, it seemed in the bag, but then out of nowhere Berwick scored twice in two minutes and snatched a draw!)
Brechin have won their last 4 games scoring 14 goals in the process, and centre half Calum Smith has scored one in each game! Berwick however have only 11 points, are rock bottom and got hammered 4-0 at next to bottom Ayr on Wednesday. They wont live with Berwick.

Double LOST +16.14

3.55 Wincanton Oniphlaure 11/10 (LOST +15.14 second. Came back at the winner when it seemed beat, but dodn't have enough to take iton again)
Alan King has a cracking record at Wincanton with hurdlers and Christia Williams rides his horses well. Won well last time out and I expect him to edge out Carlyon Bay, trained by Paul Nicholls who has won the last two runnings of this race

9.15 Weir to bt Ames 2-ball Evens (WON +16.14 - won by two shots and remains a shot clear of the field going into the final round)
We were unlucky on Day 1 as Daniel Chopra shot -4. Yesterday Chopra shot -1 and Weir went to the top of the leaderboard with -6. Stephen Ames shot -6 too, but remains a shot back of the Canadian. I expect Weir to extend his advantage today and he can be backed at Evens to do so, which has to be better than fair value!

Friday, January 4, 2008

Golf and Rugby

Mike Weir couldn't quite make it three from three yesterday but it was still another up day. Newcastle abandoned today, but still winners to be had elsewhere and the rugby boys are back in action tonight.

1.20 Lingfield Haldibari 2/1 (LOST +16.35 - 2nd to the danger, but never really looked like winning it fromt he home turn)
Showed good promise on hurdles debut and the drop back in trip should suit. Souriceau the danger, but didnt look straightforward last time.

2.40 Southwell Realt Na Mara 15/8 (WON +18.23 - 3 wins on AW now and finished strongly again)
Has looked right at home on the all weather since coming over from Ireland with 2 wins and a place from 4 runs. Only up 3lbs from last win, so has a very good shout again today.

7.10 Edinburgh+9 to beat Cardiff 10/11 (Edinburgh WON 11-10 +19.14 - Cardiff lacked spark and Edinburgh played a good tight game)
Whereas footballers can cope with 4 games in 14 days, the physical exertions of rugby require more rest and recovery periods, and this will be Cardiff's third game in 9 days. They tired towards the end of the game against Ospreys earlier this week and dont have a big squad to allow them to rotate. Normally 9pts would be a fiar handicap, but with the recent workload, Edinburgh should cover that.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Racing and Golf

Finally we get a break in the football, but hopefully you all ended the 'busy Christmas period' with a nice touch on yesterday's Scottish treble to kick off the New Year. Quieter day today though, but the PGA Tour restarts in Hawaii. Vijay is unsurprisingly favourite on a track he regards as one of his favourites.

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3.15 Lingfield War of The Roses 2/1 (WON +16.97 - ran out a good winner)
Won his last two at Lingfield and is due to go up 2lbs after a good victory on Monday over this distance (previous win over 1f shorter).

3.25 Fontwell Pitiful Tercah 11/8 (WON +18.35 - another good win expertly ridden by Tom Scu. Well done to anyone who managed to get the 7/4!)
Stayed on well over 3m on Monday and seemed to prefer hurdles to previous blunders over fences. The extra 3f shouldn't be too much of a problem, and with Tom Scudamore on board again a classic David Pipe quick double should be on the cards

8.55pm Weir bt Chopra 1st Rd 2-ball 10/11 (LOST by 2 shots +17.35 - Weir shot a respectable -2 but Chopra had three birdeis on front nine and finished -4)
This is a course where good players win, and good players who can play in all conditions. Mike Weir has proved his credentials in such conditions and, crucially, has played here before, both factors Daniel Chopra doesn't have to his name. So 10/11 seems very generous.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Racing and Football

Happy New Year to you all. Hope you had a good break and didn't spend all your winnings! As if we haven't had enough football yet, there is a full programme in Scotland today and a handful of games in England, but I'm mainly concentrating on the former today.

1.30 Folkestone Jean Le Poisson 5/6 (WON +0.83 Fitzy saw him home coming from 5-6 lengths off the pace coming to the last to win by 3 lengths)
Nicky Henderson has had 9 winners from the last 16 horses he has sent to Folkestone and the 1.30 has been won by an odds on favourite 5 out of the last 7 runnings of the race. So when Nicky has an odds on favourite you can't say no.

3pm 3 singles and 1 treble (179/16 with B365, who are best price on all three) on the following:

Falkirk bt Kilmarnock 6/4 (WON 1-0 +2.33 - Early goal and late punch up, but the result was all over by then)
Falkirk started the season slowly, but have really picked up in the second round of fixtures. 9 points from the first 11 games, has been followed by 19 in 9, with the only defeats coming to Rangers and Celtic and a 1-1 draw at Hibs. Killie however look like they are in a 3-way dogfight for the next to bottom slot.

Dunfermline bt Livingston 6/4 (WON 2-0 +3.83 - 2 goals in the first 10 minutes effectively finished the match)
On paper there isn't much between these two sides but Dunfermline are unbeaten in 5 and won their last three, while Livi have lost their last three. So go with the Pars to complete a perfect Christmas period.

Raith bt Cowdenbeath 19/20 (WON 4-1 +4.78 - strong second half performance)
Raith are top of the table and won 6 out of 9 on the road, while the Blue Brazil are hovering above the relegation spots and lost their last three.

Treble 179/16 (WON +15.97)

8pm Blackburn v Sunderland - Santa Cruz 1st Goal 9/2 e/w (LOST +14.97 - subbed at half-time before Blackburn got a penalty!)
10 goals in 18 starts and 8 in his last 5 make Santa Cruz a good outside bet for top Premier League goalscorer at 14/1, and he should look to increase his tally tonight against Sunderland's defence that has only kept clean sheets at home to Martin Jol's Spurs and Derby, and conceded 26 in 10 games on the road - the same as Derby to put that in context. He scored in the reverse fixture which Blackburn won 2-1, and I expect him to hit the net again.