So the 'extra day' and one last chance to get back in the black to make it 3 'up' months in a row.
12.17 Leonard to win 3-ball 6/4 (LOST -5.45 - As predicted Byrd fell away early and it was nip and tuck for the other two until Leonard missed the green at the par 3 17th and was forced to take a drop, meaning he fell tow shots behind)
Justin Leonard has been in good form this season, highlighted by his 4th place in the World Matchplay last week. A double bogey at the 6th pegged him back to -1, but I expect him to move closer to the top of the leaderboard today, and with Jon Byrd shooting +6 yesterday this is virtually a two-horse race. So go with the class runner and take Leonard.
4.30 Hart to win 3-ball 15/8 (WON -3.57 - Hart played very well in both 2nd and 3rd rounds before a horrible +4 in the final round saw him slip to 15th=, when a par round would have seen him share 3rd place. He won on Friday with an excellent 66, pipping Mallinger by one shot and Kim by 3)
Anthony Kim was favourite for this group yesterday but a bogey at the first and a finish of double bogey, birdie, bogey, birdie, showed he isn't too comfortable or confident around here. Dudley Hart tied with John Mallinger yesterday on -2 but Mallinger weakened with two bogeys in the last four holes. Hart should still be confident from his 3rd place in the AT&T earlier this month, so 15/8 seems a decent shout.
7.50 Kempton Trimaran 5/2 (WON -1.07 - Congrats if you waited and took the 3/1 SP. Went on readily down the home straight and I think this fillie has more to come)
This Sheikh Mohammed fillie showed great promise when second by just 1 3/4 lengths a couple of weeks ago, despite running very green. Back over same course and distance tonight and I expect him to step up a place.
8pm Wasps to beat Northampton 4/5 (N/R - Match potponed)
The last time we saw a Wasps side with their 6 Nations stars they put in a tremendous away performance to come from 20-13 down to outscore Bath 29-14 in the second half and come away with the points. Newcastle meanwhile were relying on Johnny's boot to edge past Saracens by two points. With that Bath victory still in their minds and added to by the surge of adrenalin from Paris last week in 6 of their 15, rather than just the 4 of Newcastle, I think they should be favoured tonight. And with 8/13 and 4/7 being offered around, 4/5 with Sportingbet, Stan James or Betdirect should not be sniffed at.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Darts and Football
Thursday's haven't been too good for us lately, but I'm aiming to put that right tonight. Its easy to get carried away with the darts and have bets that arent of the highest quality, so tonight we'll rein temptation in.
7.35 Manley +3 legs to beat Lewis 4/6 (WON -2.45 - Some crazy darts, both good and bad at times, but never count Manley out until its over)
Peter Manley is the man who beat Phil Taylor 8-3 last week, and his only loss so far was 8-4 to Barneveld. Ady Lewis beat Wayne Mardle last week 8-6, but Manley is playing better than Mardle, whatever you may think about The Power's new darts, and so the 3 legs on offer from Skybet at 4/6 seems a leg too many. You wouldn't bet against Manley hitting the Jackpot (metaphorically or physically given their history!), and so +3 seems too good to miss.
8 Racing Santander to draw with Getafe 9/4 (LOST -3.45 - At 1-1 in the second half it was looking good, but Getafe edged ahead and followed up with a late to confirm the defeat and all but seal their place in the final)
The Spanish Cup doesn't have the kudos of the FA Cup, and is more like the Carling Cup, and both these sides will have designs on doing a Spurs when they play the first leg of the semi final tonight. Racing are currently 6th in La Liga and Getafe 10th, but Getafe will be bouyed by a splendid win on Sunday that ended Real Madrid's unbeaten home record. But Racing have had a definite strategy in the cup this year - in all three rounds so far they have drawn the away leg and won the home leg. And while Getafe would love to take an advantage into the second leg, they wouldn't be too upset with a draw given that performance in the Bernabeu. So expect a cagey performance, and Santander's slightly superior ability see them take things ahead all square.
9 Wade beat Barneveld 11/8 (LOST -4.45 - Having seen Taylor throw sublime darts, this match saw some ridiculous darts! One leg saw both players end up on Double 1 and stil noone wanted it! However, Barney finally regained enough composure to edge the match 8-6)
I see the Racing Post have tipped this, as well as Eric Bristow in Corals, but its easy to see why. With The Power short circuiting, these two are now the 'Big Two' and its Wade who comes in with the only remaining unbeaten record after Terry Jenkins completed a unique double, beating Taylor and Barney in consecutive weeks. Barney has won his other three and is still a class act, but until Jenkins he had only played the three weakest players in this year's league, whereas Wade has been on his mettle to see off Taylor, Jenkins, Part and a draw with Ady Lewis. I see Wadey as a future World Champion and tonight he will get to show his true credentials. VC Bet are the only bookie to make Barney favourite so take advantage.
7.35 Manley +3 legs to beat Lewis 4/6 (WON -2.45 - Some crazy darts, both good and bad at times, but never count Manley out until its over)
Peter Manley is the man who beat Phil Taylor 8-3 last week, and his only loss so far was 8-4 to Barneveld. Ady Lewis beat Wayne Mardle last week 8-6, but Manley is playing better than Mardle, whatever you may think about The Power's new darts, and so the 3 legs on offer from Skybet at 4/6 seems a leg too many. You wouldn't bet against Manley hitting the Jackpot (metaphorically or physically given their history!), and so +3 seems too good to miss.
8 Racing Santander to draw with Getafe 9/4 (LOST -3.45 - At 1-1 in the second half it was looking good, but Getafe edged ahead and followed up with a late to confirm the defeat and all but seal their place in the final)
The Spanish Cup doesn't have the kudos of the FA Cup, and is more like the Carling Cup, and both these sides will have designs on doing a Spurs when they play the first leg of the semi final tonight. Racing are currently 6th in La Liga and Getafe 10th, but Getafe will be bouyed by a splendid win on Sunday that ended Real Madrid's unbeaten home record. But Racing have had a definite strategy in the cup this year - in all three rounds so far they have drawn the away leg and won the home leg. And while Getafe would love to take an advantage into the second leg, they wouldn't be too upset with a draw given that performance in the Bernabeu. So expect a cagey performance, and Santander's slightly superior ability see them take things ahead all square.
9 Wade beat Barneveld 11/8 (LOST -4.45 - Having seen Taylor throw sublime darts, this match saw some ridiculous darts! One leg saw both players end up on Double 1 and stil noone wanted it! However, Barney finally regained enough composure to edge the match 8-6)
I see the Racing Post have tipped this, as well as Eric Bristow in Corals, but its easy to see why. With The Power short circuiting, these two are now the 'Big Two' and its Wade who comes in with the only remaining unbeaten record after Terry Jenkins completed a unique double, beating Taylor and Barney in consecutive weeks. Barney has won his other three and is still a class act, but until Jenkins he had only played the three weakest players in this year's league, whereas Wade has been on his mettle to see off Taylor, Jenkins, Part and a draw with Ady Lewis. I see Wadey as a future World Champion and tonight he will get to show his true credentials. VC Bet are the only bookie to make Barney favourite so take advantage.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Football
Another winner at last! And if it ain't broke don't fix it, so we'll stick with the football again tonight with a foray over the border.
7.45 Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink 1st Goal e/w (NR -2.12 - Our man didn't play)
Celtic take on Inverness for the third time in the league tonight, and with Celtic's home record and a 5-0 win at Celtic Park earlier in the season there is no value in backing them to pick up three more points. So I'm looking at the first goal market. Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink has scored 10 league goals in 21 games so far this season, but has netted 2 in both matches against ICT this season and has scored 3 in his last four outings. ICT should be easier than Barcelona so take the 7/2 with Ladbrokes each way. Their e/w terms are 1/2 the odds for first three so you have 7/2 first goal and 7/4 in the first three, which seems very fair to me.
7.45 Kilmarnock beat Gretna 6/5 (LOST -3.12 - Kenny Deuchar gets exported to the US and Gretna hit four in the first hour! Killie got two back with 7 to go, but it was too little too late, and they are in serious trouble now)
Killie's poor run since Christmas has seen them slide to next to bottom of the SPL but a good 3-1 hoem victory over Aberdeen on Saturday should give them some renewed vigour to overtake St Mirren at least, and what better fixture would you want at this point than Gretna? They have lost 5 in a row now, conceding 16, including 3-0 at home to Division 1 Morton in the FA Cup. So expect Killie to climb out the bottom three at 6/5.
7.45 Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink 1st Goal e/w (NR -2.12 - Our man didn't play)
Celtic take on Inverness for the third time in the league tonight, and with Celtic's home record and a 5-0 win at Celtic Park earlier in the season there is no value in backing them to pick up three more points. So I'm looking at the first goal market. Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink has scored 10 league goals in 21 games so far this season, but has netted 2 in both matches against ICT this season and has scored 3 in his last four outings. ICT should be easier than Barcelona so take the 7/2 with Ladbrokes each way. Their e/w terms are 1/2 the odds for first three so you have 7/2 first goal and 7/4 in the first three, which seems very fair to me.
7.45 Kilmarnock beat Gretna 6/5 (LOST -3.12 - Kenny Deuchar gets exported to the US and Gretna hit four in the first hour! Killie got two back with 7 to go, but it was too little too late, and they are in serious trouble now)
Killie's poor run since Christmas has seen them slide to next to bottom of the SPL but a good 3-1 hoem victory over Aberdeen on Saturday should give them some renewed vigour to overtake St Mirren at least, and what better fixture would you want at this point than Gretna? They have lost 5 in a row now, conceding 16, including 3-0 at home to Division 1 Morton in the FA Cup. So expect Killie to climb out the bottom three at 6/5.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Racing and Football
Another one bites the dust, but we keep plugging away. Strange card at Leicester today - all chases! Apologies for this link not coming through yesterday but you still have a couple of weeks to drop the hints... http://www.breakfastmeat.com/steakandbjday.html
4.00 Lingfield Dawson Creek 11/4 (LOST -3.72 - Well I hope you had the reverse forecast! A creditable run and only half a length in it, but that was enough)
This horse has been going well on the all weather this winter and last time lost by a head to Joy and Pain. He is a pound better off which should make the difference, especially with a more experienced jockey on board. I dont expect anything else to touch these two, and if you're feeling lucky try the forecast!
7.45 Carlisle to beat Crewe 8/5 (WON -2.12 - A solid workmanlike 1-0 victory pushes Carlisle into second spot and leaves Crewe in the bottom four)
Two teams with opposite aims meet tonight. Crewe are in a 4-way dogfight to avoid the 4th relegation spot to the basement division this season, while a win for Carlisle tonight would see them go 2nd behind runaway leaders Swansea. Carlisle's charge has been built on winning 13 out of 15 home games, but Crewe have slipped down the table alarmingly, winning only 1 of their last 8 at home, and 1 in 17 overall. Carlisle however have turned in some good performances of late, winning 3 of the last 4 including wins over fellow promotion contenders Doncaster and Walsall. They have ony won 3 on the road this year, but with Crewe on their awful run, and Carlisle's recent excellent performances I expect them to leapfrog Forest into second spot tonight.
4.00 Lingfield Dawson Creek 11/4 (LOST -3.72 - Well I hope you had the reverse forecast! A creditable run and only half a length in it, but that was enough)
This horse has been going well on the all weather this winter and last time lost by a head to Joy and Pain. He is a pound better off which should make the difference, especially with a more experienced jockey on board. I dont expect anything else to touch these two, and if you're feeling lucky try the forecast!
7.45 Carlisle to beat Crewe 8/5 (WON -2.12 - A solid workmanlike 1-0 victory pushes Carlisle into second spot and leaves Crewe in the bottom four)
Two teams with opposite aims meet tonight. Crewe are in a 4-way dogfight to avoid the 4th relegation spot to the basement division this season, while a win for Carlisle tonight would see them go 2nd behind runaway leaders Swansea. Carlisle's charge has been built on winning 13 out of 15 home games, but Crewe have slipped down the table alarmingly, winning only 1 of their last 8 at home, and 1 in 17 overall. Carlisle however have turned in some good performances of late, winning 3 of the last 4 including wins over fellow promotion contenders Doncaster and Walsall. They have ony won 3 on the road this year, but with Crewe on their awful run, and Carlisle's recent excellent performances I expect them to leapfrog Forest into second spot tonight.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Football
Apologies for getting your hopes up about a Saturday blog, but there was nothing I fancied in the end! A poor day today for betting too but there is at least a live game to keep our interests. Oh and for all of you who blew some winnings on the missus the other week...
8pm Man City draw with Everton 9/4 (LOST -2.72 - Well Man City never turned up. It was almost the reverse of their game against United. And Petrov. What on earth was he doing??? Get your money on Everton to finish 4th)
Everton's last league defeat was in December at the hands of Arsenal, before that Manchester United and previously Liverpool, so they are not an easy side to beat. But City are no pushovers either as United found out recently, and with only one home defeat so far this season, are seriously pushing for that coveted 4th spot with Liverpool, Everton, Portsmouth and Villa. So tonight neither side will want to conced ground to the other, and this could end up playing into teh other three clubs hands as each side emerges with a point.
8pm Man City draw with Everton 9/4 (LOST -2.72 - Well Man City never turned up. It was almost the reverse of their game against United. And Petrov. What on earth was he doing??? Get your money on Everton to finish 4th)
Everton's last league defeat was in December at the hands of Arsenal, before that Manchester United and previously Liverpool, so they are not an easy side to beat. But City are no pushovers either as United found out recently, and with only one home defeat so far this season, are seriously pushing for that coveted 4th spot with Liverpool, Everton, Portsmouth and Villa. So tonight neither side will want to conced ground to the other, and this could end up playing into teh other three clubs hands as each side emerges with a point.
Friday, February 22, 2008
So for the first time I write this blog in negative territory. Yesterday I just got it wrong, but back to the grindstone today with a view good looking opportunities. And for the first time in a while there will be a blog tomorrow.
6.00 Byrd to beat Stenson 5/4 (LOST -2.22 - A very tight game with never more than one hole in it, but unfotunately the decisive one hole was Stenson's)
Matchplay throws up other factors that would not normally be considered for 2- or 3-ball betting. And this match has some such factors. Normally you would fancy Henrik Stenson to beat Jon Byrd more often than not, but Stenson has toiled this week while Byrd has had relatively light week so far. Stenson played all 18 holes to beat Robert Allenby on Wednesday and then took 25 holes to shake off Trevor Immelman yesterday. So that's almost a whole round more than Byrd who beat Ernie Els 6&5 and Andres Romero 6&4 (who had beaten the Goose 2&1) - so a difficult quartet to emerge from, and he did it with ease. He hasn't had a single bogey yet and is -10 for the 26 holes he has played (Romero conceded before the 14th was finished), while Stenson is -9 having finished 17 holes more. So Byrd is playing better and is fresher, but the bookies are still siding with the Swede, giving us odds against our man.
7.30 St Helens to beat Bradford 6/4 (WON -0.72 - Saints blitzed the Bulls early on and 16-0 was too much)
St Helens are generally 9/4 joint favourites with Leeds to win Super League again this season, with Bradford 6/1 third favourites. And Saints showed why they are widely regarded as the best side in this country when they turned on the style last Friday against Warrington in the second half last Friday night, seemingly scoring 3 tries at will within 10 minutes. Bradford also, in fairness, showed their ability with a 38-12 win over Huddersfield. And Saints have former Man of Steel and captain Paul Sculthorpe back in their 20 tonight, as is centre Willie Talau. And these additions to an already formidable unit, are why my eyes popped out at the 6/4 available for my Super League favourites.
7.30 Wigan -8pts to beat Hull 6/5 (LOST - 1.72 - When Wigan went 22-14 ahead with 20 minutes to go we looked good, but a spirited comeback from Hull saw them win 24-22)
Wigan started the season slowly, having to come from behind to beat Harlequins and then easing past Castleford last Friday. Hull however would take any positives they can currently, with an ever lengthening injury list and going down 24-6 at home to Harlequins last Sunday. I expect Wigan to maintain their 100% win record and Hull their 100% loss record and the -8 handicap at 6/5 looks well worth taking. If you dont feel comfortable at 8, Betfred are offering -4 at 10/11, as opposed to -6 generally available at that price.
6.00 Byrd to beat Stenson 5/4 (LOST -2.22 - A very tight game with never more than one hole in it, but unfotunately the decisive one hole was Stenson's)
Matchplay throws up other factors that would not normally be considered for 2- or 3-ball betting. And this match has some such factors. Normally you would fancy Henrik Stenson to beat Jon Byrd more often than not, but Stenson has toiled this week while Byrd has had relatively light week so far. Stenson played all 18 holes to beat Robert Allenby on Wednesday and then took 25 holes to shake off Trevor Immelman yesterday. So that's almost a whole round more than Byrd who beat Ernie Els 6&5 and Andres Romero 6&4 (who had beaten the Goose 2&1) - so a difficult quartet to emerge from, and he did it with ease. He hasn't had a single bogey yet and is -10 for the 26 holes he has played (Romero conceded before the 14th was finished), while Stenson is -9 having finished 17 holes more. So Byrd is playing better and is fresher, but the bookies are still siding with the Swede, giving us odds against our man.
7.30 St Helens to beat Bradford 6/4 (WON -0.72 - Saints blitzed the Bulls early on and 16-0 was too much)
St Helens are generally 9/4 joint favourites with Leeds to win Super League again this season, with Bradford 6/1 third favourites. And Saints showed why they are widely regarded as the best side in this country when they turned on the style last Friday against Warrington in the second half last Friday night, seemingly scoring 3 tries at will within 10 minutes. Bradford also, in fairness, showed their ability with a 38-12 win over Huddersfield. And Saints have former Man of Steel and captain Paul Sculthorpe back in their 20 tonight, as is centre Willie Talau. And these additions to an already formidable unit, are why my eyes popped out at the 6/4 available for my Super League favourites.
7.30 Wigan -8pts to beat Hull 6/5 (LOST - 1.72 - When Wigan went 22-14 ahead with 20 minutes to go we looked good, but a spirited comeback from Hull saw them win 24-22)
Wigan started the season slowly, having to come from behind to beat Harlequins and then easing past Castleford last Friday. Hull however would take any positives they can currently, with an ever lengthening injury list and going down 24-6 at home to Harlequins last Sunday. I expect Wigan to maintain their 100% win record and Hull their 100% loss record and the -8 handicap at 6/5 looks well worth taking. If you dont feel comfortable at 8, Betfred are offering -4 at 10/11, as opposed to -6 generally available at that price.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Darts and Golf
Well we've not been this close to negative territory for a long time so time to buckle down and get some pennies back in the bag. Yesterday I was late in getting the tips up so didn't post my 4-way accumulator on the golf. The fourth and final one was Tiger at 1/5 and at 3 down with 5 to play it was looking like the banker was going to do for me. But his class finally told and he won by a hole.
7.15 Westwood to beat Leonard 10/11 (LOST -0.22 - Lee shot -1 but an eagle at 10th took Leonard 2 holes ahead and he never let up from there)
Lee Westwood was never behind yesterday in his 3&2 victory, while Justin Leonard never lost a hole after the first in his 2&1 victory over Justin Leonard. But you only have to look at Ryder Cup records to see the comparison for today's tip. Lee Westwood is 4th in the all-time European winning percentage list with 14 wins and 8 ties from 25 matches. Justin Leonard is still searching for his first full point after 3 draws and 5 losses. The world seems to price Westwood at 8/11 but amazingly William Hills has the the Tricky Tree at 10/11. Take advantage
8.15 Taylor & Barneveld Double 1.04/1 (LOST -1.22 - Not just one losing, but both lost! Has The Power really lost it this time? Losing 8-3 to Peter Manley and with only Wayne Mardle below him in the table. And is The Bull back? Beating Taylor and Barney in consecutive weeks. This Premier League looked a done deal when it started but is now wide open, with only Jamie Wade looking consistent - 11/2 for the World Championships?)
Yes The Power may have lost last week, and yes he may still be struggling with those darts, but today is his easiest task to date and hence the 1/3 about him winning. I don't want to touch the handicap for the above reasons but he will win outright. And whil Jenkins upset Phil last week, Barney has crusied through three matches, winning them all 8-4. I don't expect tonight to be so easy, but I do expect a win at 8/15. Take the double to pay just over Evens.
7.15 Westwood to beat Leonard 10/11 (LOST -0.22 - Lee shot -1 but an eagle at 10th took Leonard 2 holes ahead and he never let up from there)
Lee Westwood was never behind yesterday in his 3&2 victory, while Justin Leonard never lost a hole after the first in his 2&1 victory over Justin Leonard. But you only have to look at Ryder Cup records to see the comparison for today's tip. Lee Westwood is 4th in the all-time European winning percentage list with 14 wins and 8 ties from 25 matches. Justin Leonard is still searching for his first full point after 3 draws and 5 losses. The world seems to price Westwood at 8/11 but amazingly William Hills has the the Tricky Tree at 10/11. Take advantage
8.15 Taylor & Barneveld Double 1.04/1 (LOST -1.22 - Not just one losing, but both lost! Has The Power really lost it this time? Losing 8-3 to Peter Manley and with only Wayne Mardle below him in the table. And is The Bull back? Beating Taylor and Barney in consecutive weeks. This Premier League looked a done deal when it started but is now wide open, with only Jamie Wade looking consistent - 11/2 for the World Championships?)
Yes The Power may have lost last week, and yes he may still be struggling with those darts, but today is his easiest task to date and hence the 1/3 about him winning. I don't want to touch the handicap for the above reasons but he will win outright. And whil Jenkins upset Phil last week, Barney has crusied through three matches, winning them all 8-4. I don't expect tonight to be so easy, but I do expect a win at 8/15. Take the double to pay just over Evens.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Football and Horse Racing
Apologies for the late publication today. However, I would still have skipped the first round of the World Matchplay golf as the first round is like Court Number 2 at Wimbledon - graveyard of the seeds. So I'll focus on the football tonight and a tasty filly at Kempton.
7.45 Barcelona to beat Celtic 1-0 11/2 (LOST+1.78 - So much for a cautious approach from Barca! Celtic are one of the luckiest sides I've seen - they should be 6 down after this leg. Spread betters, buy Barca supremacy in the second leg as it could be as high as Jimmy Anderson's economy rate!)
Everyone knows about Celtic not being beaten at home in Europe since September 2004, but it is amazing really for a decidedly average team in terms of European football. The record has been protected due to some credible draws against some of Europe's leading lights, but tonight Gordon Strachan will know a draw is no good. To stand any chance whatsoever of getting through this tie, Celtic have to win at Parkhead, unlike Barca's trip to Ibrox earlier in the season, when their hosts were happy to defend for a draw. However, that will allow Barcelona to play and when you have a frontline of Eto'o, Henry, Ronaldinho and Messi, they are more difficult to keep quiet than 17 hangings in Bridgend. And it could be Celtic's European dreams left dangling by a string when those four get going tonight, and that record is left in tatters. Oh, and the last team to win at Parkhead in European competition? Barcelona. However, believe it or not Barcelona have only netted 7 goals in their last 8 games, although Ronnie has been injured and Eto'o at the African Nations Cup. Expect Barca to do enough to allow them to turn on the tricks in the Nou Camp in the second leg.
8.20 Kempton Tuning Fork 9/2 (LOST +0.78 - was well backed but Kirsty couldn't quite get him to go with the front two and he came a couple of lengths down in 3rd)
This horse finished a half length second in the Dante Stakes in 2003 on only his second ever run, winning £32,000, and tonight, less than 5 years on is racing in a £2,000 0-50 handicap at Kempton. He has now run 6 times on the all weather, and seems to be enjoying a shorter trip as he ages, with a 3rd and a 2nd in his two runs over 7f. Those two places have also come while being steered by this blog's favourite female jockey, Kirsty Miczarek, and I think he has a decent chance of making up the length and a half he lost by last time and reclaiming some glory.
7.45 Barcelona to beat Celtic 1-0 11/2 (LOST+1.78 - So much for a cautious approach from Barca! Celtic are one of the luckiest sides I've seen - they should be 6 down after this leg. Spread betters, buy Barca supremacy in the second leg as it could be as high as Jimmy Anderson's economy rate!)
Everyone knows about Celtic not being beaten at home in Europe since September 2004, but it is amazing really for a decidedly average team in terms of European football. The record has been protected due to some credible draws against some of Europe's leading lights, but tonight Gordon Strachan will know a draw is no good. To stand any chance whatsoever of getting through this tie, Celtic have to win at Parkhead, unlike Barca's trip to Ibrox earlier in the season, when their hosts were happy to defend for a draw. However, that will allow Barcelona to play and when you have a frontline of Eto'o, Henry, Ronaldinho and Messi, they are more difficult to keep quiet than 17 hangings in Bridgend. And it could be Celtic's European dreams left dangling by a string when those four get going tonight, and that record is left in tatters. Oh, and the last team to win at Parkhead in European competition? Barcelona. However, believe it or not Barcelona have only netted 7 goals in their last 8 games, although Ronnie has been injured and Eto'o at the African Nations Cup. Expect Barca to do enough to allow them to turn on the tricks in the Nou Camp in the second leg.
8.20 Kempton Tuning Fork 9/2 (LOST +0.78 - was well backed but Kirsty couldn't quite get him to go with the front two and he came a couple of lengths down in 3rd)
This horse finished a half length second in the Dante Stakes in 2003 on only his second ever run, winning £32,000, and tonight, less than 5 years on is racing in a £2,000 0-50 handicap at Kempton. He has now run 6 times on the all weather, and seems to be enjoying a shorter trip as he ages, with a 3rd and a 2nd in his two runs over 7f. Those two places have also come while being steered by this blog's favourite female jockey, Kirsty Miczarek, and I think he has a decent chance of making up the length and a half he lost by last time and reclaiming some glory.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Horse Racing, Football and Cricket
A bad trot here at the moment.
2.50 Taunton Arctic Magic each way 16/1 (3rd +4.78 - Couldnt really get close to the front two but showed more of her old form and one to keep on your side)
A late developer, this mare only raced in bumpers last year as a 7-year old and performed creditably winning on debut and then 3rd in a Listed bumper at Sandown. She then found 2m4f too far in heavy going on her return this season before being bumped around and possibly unsettled early on last time out. She is reunited with last term's jockey, Daryl Jacob today, and if she can settle, she may offer good each way value.
7.45 Roma Draw with Real Madrid (LOST +3.78 - one of the best games of football I have watched in a long time. I thought Madrid would run away with it after their early goal and Van Nistelrooj was fractionally offside moments later, but Roma showed why they are second in Serie A. Still fancy Madrid to finish the job in the Bernabeu next week.)
Both these sides qualified with the same record - 3 wins, 2 draws and a defeat, and although Madrid are slightly the better side I expect home advantage to nullify that, and the La Liga leaders to take the tie back to the Bernabeu level. Madrid have lost 4 games on the road in Spain this year but they have won at the Nou Camp and we all know they tend to play better in the big games. Roma may only have lost one at home, to table topping Inter, but also drawn with 3rd place Juve and Manchester United. Real will be happy with a draw, so it seems worthwhile backing it.
10pm Jacob Oram to be top NZ Batsman 9/1 (LOST +2.78 - if the football was good, how good was the cricket??? When I went to bed with England posting 340 I was confident Oram would get a decent crack, but it wasn't to be! I do wish spread betting firms would offer markets on runs conceded by Jimmy Anderson, however I feel there would be many more buyers than sellers! After 4 games, England's other quick bowlers (Sidebottom and Broad) have economy rates of 4.40 and 5.15 respectively - the 'Burnley Burglar' has gone at over 7s!!!)
In the first two games, England were so bad, New Zealand only lost 4 wickets and Jacob Oram never made it to the crease. However, when England finally put in a performance he was required and made 88, more than twice than any other Kiwi batsman. Similarly, in the one 20/20 match he played in he scored 61 - the next highest score being 21. So while England are no value again at 4/6, the 9/1 Skybet offer on Oram has to be good value if England perform and Oram is required to show his skills.
2.50 Taunton Arctic Magic each way 16/1 (3rd +4.78 - Couldnt really get close to the front two but showed more of her old form and one to keep on your side)
A late developer, this mare only raced in bumpers last year as a 7-year old and performed creditably winning on debut and then 3rd in a Listed bumper at Sandown. She then found 2m4f too far in heavy going on her return this season before being bumped around and possibly unsettled early on last time out. She is reunited with last term's jockey, Daryl Jacob today, and if she can settle, she may offer good each way value.
7.45 Roma Draw with Real Madrid (LOST +3.78 - one of the best games of football I have watched in a long time. I thought Madrid would run away with it after their early goal and Van Nistelrooj was fractionally offside moments later, but Roma showed why they are second in Serie A. Still fancy Madrid to finish the job in the Bernabeu next week.)
Both these sides qualified with the same record - 3 wins, 2 draws and a defeat, and although Madrid are slightly the better side I expect home advantage to nullify that, and the La Liga leaders to take the tie back to the Bernabeu level. Madrid have lost 4 games on the road in Spain this year but they have won at the Nou Camp and we all know they tend to play better in the big games. Roma may only have lost one at home, to table topping Inter, but also drawn with 3rd place Juve and Manchester United. Real will be happy with a draw, so it seems worthwhile backing it.
10pm Jacob Oram to be top NZ Batsman 9/1 (LOST +2.78 - if the football was good, how good was the cricket??? When I went to bed with England posting 340 I was confident Oram would get a decent crack, but it wasn't to be! I do wish spread betting firms would offer markets on runs conceded by Jimmy Anderson, however I feel there would be many more buyers than sellers! After 4 games, England's other quick bowlers (Sidebottom and Broad) have economy rates of 4.40 and 5.15 respectively - the 'Burnley Burglar' has gone at over 7s!!!)
In the first two games, England were so bad, New Zealand only lost 4 wickets and Jacob Oram never made it to the crease. However, when England finally put in a performance he was required and made 88, more than twice than any other Kiwi batsman. Similarly, in the one 20/20 match he played in he scored 61 - the next highest score being 21. So while England are no value again at 4/6, the 9/1 Skybet offer on Oram has to be good value if England perform and Oram is required to show his skills.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Football and Cricket
So what did we learn this weekend? Kauto Star is a good thing for the Gold Cup? Oops. Liverpool must have a great chance in the FA Cup. Oops. Alistair Darling knows what he's doing? Well, ok maybe noone ever thought that last one! Its a quiet Monday all round today, but there is an important match in the Championship tonight.
7.45 Bristol City to beat Crystal Palace 6/5 (LOST +4.73 - 1-1 was the final result as Bristol City grabbed a late equaliser, but it could have been a winner had they converted their penalty earlier in the half)
Tonight sees Bristol City play their game in hand on the top two sides in the Championship and a win will send them to the top and give them a 13 point cushion for the playoff spots - surely too many with the same number of games to play. Palace however could move within 3 points of Ipswich who currently occupy 6th spot. After a 15 game unbeaten run, the Warnock promotion train has hit the buffers in recent times with just 1 point and 1 goal in their last 4, and lost their first home game since October last Tuesday to an Ipswich side who had only previously won one game on the road. Bristol City as we saw on Tuesday night, have got their campaign well and truly back on track after a wobble and have won 6 out of their last 7 at home. Therefore odds against looks very appealing.
3.15am Sri Lanka to beat India 11/10 (LOST +3.73 - Another low scoring affair with India knocking off the 238 for 8 in the last over. Close again, but still no cigars)
Its been a strange Commonwealth Bank Series so far with the first two games rained out and with some of the world's best and most explosive batsmen on show a highest score after 7 games of just 267. As a result of the weather tonight's opponents have only played each other once - India posting 195/ in 29 overs in a rain-affected game, but Sri Lanka blew them away 154 for just two wickets, with 2 overs of their 21 to spare. And since then Sri Lanka lost to Australia by 63 runs and India by 50 runs. So it seems a fairly even game and I'd agree with most bookies who have it 5/6 both teams. However, some are offering Evens Sri Lanka, while a couple are 11/10 and that seems too good to miss.
With a few more points in the bag, I would be tempted to double these two up at a tast 18/5, and while I wouldn't persuade anyone not to back it, I'll be prudent here and not tip it up.
7.45 Bristol City to beat Crystal Palace 6/5 (LOST +4.73 - 1-1 was the final result as Bristol City grabbed a late equaliser, but it could have been a winner had they converted their penalty earlier in the half)
Tonight sees Bristol City play their game in hand on the top two sides in the Championship and a win will send them to the top and give them a 13 point cushion for the playoff spots - surely too many with the same number of games to play. Palace however could move within 3 points of Ipswich who currently occupy 6th spot. After a 15 game unbeaten run, the Warnock promotion train has hit the buffers in recent times with just 1 point and 1 goal in their last 4, and lost their first home game since October last Tuesday to an Ipswich side who had only previously won one game on the road. Bristol City as we saw on Tuesday night, have got their campaign well and truly back on track after a wobble and have won 6 out of their last 7 at home. Therefore odds against looks very appealing.
3.15am Sri Lanka to beat India 11/10 (LOST +3.73 - Another low scoring affair with India knocking off the 238 for 8 in the last over. Close again, but still no cigars)
Its been a strange Commonwealth Bank Series so far with the first two games rained out and with some of the world's best and most explosive batsmen on show a highest score after 7 games of just 267. As a result of the weather tonight's opponents have only played each other once - India posting 195/ in 29 overs in a rain-affected game, but Sri Lanka blew them away 154 for just two wickets, with 2 overs of their 21 to spare. And since then Sri Lanka lost to Australia by 63 runs and India by 50 runs. So it seems a fairly even game and I'd agree with most bookies who have it 5/6 both teams. However, some are offering Evens Sri Lanka, while a couple are 11/10 and that seems too good to miss.
With a few more points in the bag, I would be tempted to double these two up at a tast 18/5, and while I wouldn't persuade anyone not to back it, I'll be prudent here and not tip it up.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Horse Racing, Rugby League and Golf
Another near miss day. We did the right things but didn't quite get things going for us. First rugby league bet of the season tonight as my side, Wakefield take on Leeds.
1.55 Fakenham Cayman Calypso 5/1 (LOST +8.73 - ran in patches? Warren marston went too soon? Not sure but certainly didn't win)
Cayman Calypso has had a couple of very ordinary runs over the all weather in the last two months but his showing in handicap and maiden hurdles last year was decent enough to believe he should go close in this seller. Mrs Sly's horses have performed well in the last week too, so this has every chance.
8 Leeds to beat Wakefield by 5-10 11/2 (LOST +7.73 - reality check for Wakefield in the first half killed this bet, but they did recover to play an even second half, but the game wa gone by then)
Leeds have started the season well and showed their class with a 30-10 victory over Huddersfield last week. Wakefield however, showed they are no pushovers this season, beating Bradford by 2 points. Leeds are a better outfit than Bradford so are rightly a short price tonight, although I don't expect them to run away with it. 1-5 is an option, but 5-10 makes more sense to me.
8.45 Furyk 3-ball 6/5 (LOST +5.73 - bad couple of days for us and for Jim. Cut missed)
If you had backed Jim for his 3-ball yesterday you would have lost by 1 shot to JJ Henry. And yesterday he was Evns. So today he's 6/5. Ok, Henry shot +4, Furyk and Pavin +5, but Furyk won't do that twice so take advantage.
1.55 Fakenham Cayman Calypso 5/1 (LOST +8.73 - ran in patches? Warren marston went too soon? Not sure but certainly didn't win)
Cayman Calypso has had a couple of very ordinary runs over the all weather in the last two months but his showing in handicap and maiden hurdles last year was decent enough to believe he should go close in this seller. Mrs Sly's horses have performed well in the last week too, so this has every chance.
8 Leeds to beat Wakefield by 5-10 11/2 (LOST +7.73 - reality check for Wakefield in the first half killed this bet, but they did recover to play an even second half, but the game wa gone by then)
Leeds have started the season well and showed their class with a 30-10 victory over Huddersfield last week. Wakefield however, showed they are no pushovers this season, beating Bradford by 2 points. Leeds are a better outfit than Bradford so are rightly a short price tonight, although I don't expect them to run away with it. 1-5 is an option, but 5-10 makes more sense to me.
8.45 Furyk 3-ball 6/5 (LOST +5.73 - bad couple of days for us and for Jim. Cut missed)
If you had backed Jim for his 3-ball yesterday you would have lost by 1 shot to JJ Henry. And yesterday he was Evns. So today he's 6/5. Ok, Henry shot +4, Furyk and Pavin +5, but Furyk won't do that twice so take advantage.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Darts and Cricketq
It may be Valentine's Day but the bookies are still open and there's Premier League Darts on. Couldn't they have moved Valentine's Day to the Friday and kept everyone happy? Oh well, get our bets on early Rasputins, then when you've entertained your beau, stick Sky Sports on.
8.15pm Manley+3.5 to beat Barneveld 5/6 (LOST +11.73 - Barney was exemplary again and Manley couldn't quite get the one leg we needed going down 8-4)
One Dart hit 7 out of 8 doubles he went for last week and while the fact he still only drew suggests he wasn't racking up the points as heavily in between, some credit has to go to Wayne Mardle. That's two draws out of two for Manley, the other against John Part, while Barney has racked up two 8-4 victories against the same two players. Logic would therefore suggest an 8-4 to Barney again, however Mardle definitely played better last week and if Manley can check out well again I can see him going closer than the other two did.
9pm Mardle to beat Part 12/5 (LOST +10.73 - the old inconsistent Mardle was back)
Both players have drawn with Peter Manley and lost 8-4 to Barney so this should be a tight one. However, as mentioned above, Mardle really played well last week, and had it not been for Manley's doubles, would have registered a win. Therefore 12/5 looks a big price for Hawaii 5-0-1 to get revenge for his World Championships defeat.
1am Pietersen Top England Batsman 10/3 (LOST +9.73 - a forty from the man, but not enough to steal it away from Bell or Collingwood)
Its difficult to know what to make of tonight's 3rd game. In the first game England played the pitch completely wrong. In the second game, the weather clearly played its part, but that can't excuse England's woeful bowling performance. But this is an average New Zealand side against an average England side, so despite those results you would expect the series to not be over in 3 games, and 10/11 choice seems fair pricing. So I'm going to swerve that. KP averages 48.48 in ODI's but his last 6 innings have averaged just 24.50. But this isn't a man scratching for form. In Sri Lanka he got some poor decisions and on Monday night he was looking imperious until the rain came, and was caught out before he had got himself back in after the break. Form is temporary, class is permanent, and KP is class.
8.15pm Manley+3.5 to beat Barneveld 5/6 (LOST +11.73 - Barney was exemplary again and Manley couldn't quite get the one leg we needed going down 8-4)
One Dart hit 7 out of 8 doubles he went for last week and while the fact he still only drew suggests he wasn't racking up the points as heavily in between, some credit has to go to Wayne Mardle. That's two draws out of two for Manley, the other against John Part, while Barney has racked up two 8-4 victories against the same two players. Logic would therefore suggest an 8-4 to Barney again, however Mardle definitely played better last week and if Manley can check out well again I can see him going closer than the other two did.
9pm Mardle to beat Part 12/5 (LOST +10.73 - the old inconsistent Mardle was back)
Both players have drawn with Peter Manley and lost 8-4 to Barney so this should be a tight one. However, as mentioned above, Mardle really played well last week, and had it not been for Manley's doubles, would have registered a win. Therefore 12/5 looks a big price for Hawaii 5-0-1 to get revenge for his World Championships defeat.
1am Pietersen Top England Batsman 10/3 (LOST +9.73 - a forty from the man, but not enough to steal it away from Bell or Collingwood)
Its difficult to know what to make of tonight's 3rd game. In the first game England played the pitch completely wrong. In the second game, the weather clearly played its part, but that can't excuse England's woeful bowling performance. But this is an average New Zealand side against an average England side, so despite those results you would expect the series to not be over in 3 games, and 10/11 choice seems fair pricing. So I'm going to swerve that. KP averages 48.48 in ODI's but his last 6 innings have averaged just 24.50. But this isn't a man scratching for form. In Sri Lanka he got some poor decisions and on Monday night he was looking imperious until the rain came, and was caught out before he had got himself back in after the break. Form is temporary, class is permanent, and KP is class.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Snooker and Golf
Always nice to bounce back from a couple of losing bets with a couple of winning bets. You have to remember you can't win every bet, but as long as you put the bets on for the right reasons, hopefully over time it will pay off. One of the keys to doing that is re-examining losing bets rather than basking in the glory of winning bets, and just making sure your reasoning was right or if you need to tweak it in hindsight. Not much happening today so no point in forcing bets.
Today's tips have been sponsored by The Oldham Evening Chronicle, an excellent publication however not one to follow the racing tips of. Feel free to support our sponsor and browse their memorabilia http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/promotions/index.htm . I can confirm that the commemorative mugs are highly recommended for those of you who follow the tips of our sister site http://www.theanalystbets.blogspot.com/ ;-)
1.00 Judd Trump to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan 3/1 (LOST +12.73 - It looked all over at 4-1, but Judd showed his ability to get back to 4-3 and 24-22 up in the 8th, before Ronnie comiled a match winning break. This kid will be back)
Now you may think I'm getting carried away putting up an 18-year old ranked in the 40s in the world rankings against the most naturally talented players to have chalked a cue. And i admit this isn't one for big stakes. However, as we all know, things are never straightforward where Ronnie is concerned. He says he has now found a love for running, putting in over 50 miles a week and if he had to choose between that and snooker, he'd choose snooker. Would you want to back a guy who said that at 2/7? And if you backed him yesterday you know Judd Trump is no mug - he beat Joe Swail comfortably with a couple of maximums and holds the record for the youngest professional 147. He's played Ronnie at his own club in Bristol a few times so shouldn't be overawed by the occasion and may just give you the few extra quid you need to go to the florist rather than the petrol station tomorrow.
Thursday - Sunday Jim Furyk to win Northern Trust Open 22/1 each way (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5)
Jim Furyk is one of the world's top six players and as such will have high expectations for this week's tournaments with no T Woods in the field. In the last three seasons, Furyk has won 4 tournaments from 73 starts - 1 in 18 and they include all those that Tiger has romped. So for starters 22/1 seems generous. He has also had 19 top 3 finishes in total, that's roughly 1 in 4, so 11/2 for a top 5 spot again seems generous. As for the other Top 6 player playing, Mickelson and Stricker missed the cut in their last tournaments and Adam Scott, although finishing 1st and 2nd here in recent years, hasn't played in the US in 5 months. Justin Rose, ranked 7th, has been away just as long. So back 'T4' to keep you interested in Setanta on Sunday evening.
Today's tips have been sponsored by The Oldham Evening Chronicle, an excellent publication however not one to follow the racing tips of. Feel free to support our sponsor and browse their memorabilia http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/promotions/index.htm . I can confirm that the commemorative mugs are highly recommended for those of you who follow the tips of our sister site http://www.theanalystbets.blogspot.com/ ;-)
1.00 Judd Trump to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan 3/1 (LOST +12.73 - It looked all over at 4-1, but Judd showed his ability to get back to 4-3 and 24-22 up in the 8th, before Ronnie comiled a match winning break. This kid will be back)
Now you may think I'm getting carried away putting up an 18-year old ranked in the 40s in the world rankings against the most naturally talented players to have chalked a cue. And i admit this isn't one for big stakes. However, as we all know, things are never straightforward where Ronnie is concerned. He says he has now found a love for running, putting in over 50 miles a week and if he had to choose between that and snooker, he'd choose snooker. Would you want to back a guy who said that at 2/7? And if you backed him yesterday you know Judd Trump is no mug - he beat Joe Swail comfortably with a couple of maximums and holds the record for the youngest professional 147. He's played Ronnie at his own club in Bristol a few times so shouldn't be overawed by the occasion and may just give you the few extra quid you need to go to the florist rather than the petrol station tomorrow.
Thursday - Sunday Jim Furyk to win Northern Trust Open 22/1 each way (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5)
Jim Furyk is one of the world's top six players and as such will have high expectations for this week's tournaments with no T Woods in the field. In the last three seasons, Furyk has won 4 tournaments from 73 starts - 1 in 18 and they include all those that Tiger has romped. So for starters 22/1 seems generous. He has also had 19 top 3 finishes in total, that's roughly 1 in 4, so 11/2 for a top 5 spot again seems generous. As for the other Top 6 player playing, Mickelson and Stricker missed the cut in their last tournaments and Adam Scott, although finishing 1st and 2nd here in recent years, hasn't played in the US in 5 months. Justin Rose, ranked 7th, has been away just as long. So back 'T4' to keep you interested in Setanta on Sunday evening.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Snooker and Football
A blank drawn yesterday, but you just have to learn from it and move on. So we move on to Wales for the Welsh Open snooker. Not big prices, but better a short priced winner than a long priced loser.
1.00 Judd Trump to beat Joe Swail 5/6 (WON +10.00 - Judd rattled in a couple of century breaks on his way to a routine 5-2 victory)
Despite having two surnames and no christian name and sounding like a boy band member or Hollywood B-list actor, Judd Trump is actually a talented young cueist. And while everyone knows about Ding Junhui now, Trump has steadily made his way into the top 50 in the world and I expect that march to continue this week, starting with victory over the off form Joe Swail. He is yet to make it beyond the 2nd Rd this season including a loss to Steve Davis. Trump should feel comfortable in Newport, not far from his Bristol home, so back him to set up a clash with Ronnie.
7.45 Bristol City & Watford Double 3.73/1 (WON +13.73 - 1-0 victories are the results of champions at this stage of the season. Bristol City stuck to their task and scored in the 83rd minute, while Watford scored earlier in the game but played the second half with 10 men)
Tonight sees two of the top three in the Championship play two of the bottom five and at tasty prices. Bristol City have been a revelation this season and while their last two away games have seen them return down the M4 with nothing, they were against the resurgent forces of QPR and Palace. They have before that taken 3 points at table toppers Watford, playoff hopefuls Burnley and Norwich, and draws at Wolves, Hull, and Plymouth. Scunny beat Charlton in their last home game but that is their only win in eight games, and with the other three of the top four all taking maximum points at Glanford Park, I expect Bristol City to make it another three points.
Watford lost 4-1 and Walkers Stadium in August but things have changed since then. Leicester are onto their 4th manager since then, including Gerry Taggart's spell as caretaker boss, and rumours swirl around today about how much longer Milan Mandaric will give Ian Holloway with the Foxes just 3 points from safety and a game more played. Watford meanwhile are top of the pile and despite a couple of stumbles are still aiming for an immediate return to the Premiership. They ended Ipswich's unbeaten home run on Saturday and eat Wolves 3-0 at home the week before, signalling a return to form that suggests 4/5 is tasty enough to give you a near 15/4 double.
1.00 Judd Trump to beat Joe Swail 5/6 (WON +10.00 - Judd rattled in a couple of century breaks on his way to a routine 5-2 victory)
Despite having two surnames and no christian name and sounding like a boy band member or Hollywood B-list actor, Judd Trump is actually a talented young cueist. And while everyone knows about Ding Junhui now, Trump has steadily made his way into the top 50 in the world and I expect that march to continue this week, starting with victory over the off form Joe Swail. He is yet to make it beyond the 2nd Rd this season including a loss to Steve Davis. Trump should feel comfortable in Newport, not far from his Bristol home, so back him to set up a clash with Ronnie.
7.45 Bristol City & Watford Double 3.73/1 (WON +13.73 - 1-0 victories are the results of champions at this stage of the season. Bristol City stuck to their task and scored in the 83rd minute, while Watford scored earlier in the game but played the second half with 10 men)
Tonight sees two of the top three in the Championship play two of the bottom five and at tasty prices. Bristol City have been a revelation this season and while their last two away games have seen them return down the M4 with nothing, they were against the resurgent forces of QPR and Palace. They have before that taken 3 points at table toppers Watford, playoff hopefuls Burnley and Norwich, and draws at Wolves, Hull, and Plymouth. Scunny beat Charlton in their last home game but that is their only win in eight games, and with the other three of the top four all taking maximum points at Glanford Park, I expect Bristol City to make it another three points.
Watford lost 4-1 and Walkers Stadium in August but things have changed since then. Leicester are onto their 4th manager since then, including Gerry Taggart's spell as caretaker boss, and rumours swirl around today about how much longer Milan Mandaric will give Ian Holloway with the Foxes just 3 points from safety and a game more played. Watford meanwhile are top of the pile and despite a couple of stumbles are still aiming for an immediate return to the Premiership. They ended Ipswich's unbeaten home run on Saturday and eat Wolves 3-0 at home the week before, signalling a return to form that suggests 4/5 is tasty enough to give you a near 15/4 double.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Racing and Football
What a mixed weekend - great weather, appalling performance from England's cricket team, poor performance from the rugby team, a dull poor game between Chelsea and Liverpool and a cracker in Machester. Congratulations to anyone who backed the winner of the Indian Masters golf or won the Euro Millions lottery - I'm not sure which is more likely! Quiet day on the sporting front today with European football looming on the horizon but still a couple of bets to try to beat the bookies.
3.05 Wetherby Fortunate Isle 9/4 (LOST +10.17 - Another second, but another good run. I don't think this horse is yet diagnosed with seconditis, he just needs to not keep finding the good ones who keep pipping him. He was 15 lengths clear of 3rd this time)
Richard Fahey's ex flat gelding has had two thirds followed by two seconds so far over hurdles, but is doing nothing wrong and I think this race doesnt have the quality of his previous ones. Racing Post and Topspeed ratings back this up and so 9/4 looks a decent price.
8pm Arsenal to score 3 goals 9/2 (LOST +9.17 - An early goal gave hope of a more open game and the chance of our target being hit, but Arsenal were strangely subdued and the second goal only came in the final minutes. Yes, we should have taken the more prudent Arsenal to win by 2 or more goals!)
After United and Chelsea slipped up yesterday, Arsenal will be looking to capitalise and move 5 points clear. They have previously had tough games with Blackburn, and this won't be easy, but they have added a scrapping side to their game now to deal with sides who want to mix it. And take a look at their recent socrelines. They have socred 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 games (the other one was the Carling Cup side so not full strength). So with no value at 1/3 or even, I considered Arsenal to win by 2 goals or more at 21/20, but I think 3 goals at 9/2 is worth a punt with BlueSquare.
3.05 Wetherby Fortunate Isle 9/4 (LOST +10.17 - Another second, but another good run. I don't think this horse is yet diagnosed with seconditis, he just needs to not keep finding the good ones who keep pipping him. He was 15 lengths clear of 3rd this time)
Richard Fahey's ex flat gelding has had two thirds followed by two seconds so far over hurdles, but is doing nothing wrong and I think this race doesnt have the quality of his previous ones. Racing Post and Topspeed ratings back this up and so 9/4 looks a decent price.
8pm Arsenal to score 3 goals 9/2 (LOST +9.17 - An early goal gave hope of a more open game and the chance of our target being hit, but Arsenal were strangely subdued and the second goal only came in the final minutes. Yes, we should have taken the more prudent Arsenal to win by 2 or more goals!)
After United and Chelsea slipped up yesterday, Arsenal will be looking to capitalise and move 5 points clear. They have previously had tough games with Blackburn, and this won't be easy, but they have added a scrapping side to their game now to deal with sides who want to mix it. And take a look at their recent socrelines. They have socred 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 games (the other one was the Carling Cup side so not full strength). So with no value at 1/3 or even, I considered Arsenal to win by 2 goals or more at 21/20, but I think 3 goals at 9/2 is worth a punt with BlueSquare.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Snooker and Racing
Very disappointing day yesterday. Several near misses, but that's what happens some days, and we are still in credit for the month, so lets get back to winning days today ahead of the weekend.
11 Perry to beat Higgins 7/2 (LOST +6.46 - I went for lunch at 1-1 and a tight thrid frame developing so was amazed to come back and find it ended 5-1!)
Group 1 is a tight group with Higgins currently top wit 2 wins and a draw, but Joe Perry had a good 4-2 win after being 2-1 down to Ali Carter yesterday. Higgins draw was against Carter, so should Perry really be 7/2?
1 Doherty to beat Robertson 11/8 (WON +7.84 - the second 5-1 of the day and this time in our favour)
Ken has been playing sublime snooker lately and is 3 from 3 going into this clash. I fully expect him to make it 4 from 4 and make it into the semi finals
4.55 Bangor Youngstown 10/3 (WON +11.17 - you read it here! Lennox Town disappointed but Youngstown ran a rave race to hold off Play on Words)
Everyone will get excited over Lennox Gardens in this bumper as Carl Llewellyn has a good record on his own horses in these flat races, but Youngstown has shown well in claiming two places so far and as you should know by now, Donald McCain's horse are in fine fettle. If the money comes for Lennox Gardens you may get better than 10/3 but that looks a decent price as it is.
11 Perry to beat Higgins 7/2 (LOST +6.46 - I went for lunch at 1-1 and a tight thrid frame developing so was amazed to come back and find it ended 5-1!)
Group 1 is a tight group with Higgins currently top wit 2 wins and a draw, but Joe Perry had a good 4-2 win after being 2-1 down to Ali Carter yesterday. Higgins draw was against Carter, so should Perry really be 7/2?
1 Doherty to beat Robertson 11/8 (WON +7.84 - the second 5-1 of the day and this time in our favour)
Ken has been playing sublime snooker lately and is 3 from 3 going into this clash. I fully expect him to make it 4 from 4 and make it into the semi finals
4.55 Bangor Youngstown 10/3 (WON +11.17 - you read it here! Lennox Town disappointed but Youngstown ran a rave race to hold off Play on Words)
Everyone will get excited over Lennox Gardens in this bumper as Carl Llewellyn has a good record on his own horses in these flat races, but Youngstown has shown well in claiming two places so far and as you should know by now, Donald McCain's horse are in fine fettle. If the money comes for Lennox Gardens you may get better than 10/3 but that looks a decent price as it is.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Racing, Football and Darts
Classic betting fare today with finally some action this week. So with a healthy wallet building up for this month now, lets dive in.
4.30 Southwell Rubilini 5/1 (LOST +10.46 - started to make headway in the straight but couldnt get to the leaders. Runs again today - sod's law will have her win, but best watched)
This fillie caught my eye in a number of ways. You'll be glad to know her form was the first though. She lost her maiden tag last time on her Southwell debut and clearly preferred this surface to Kempton. That was her first run for the under-rated Sheena West yard. Sheena never gets the headlines but does have a good record in the lower reaches of racing. (But no pics of her as she's not up to our recent standards - although a mate of mine used to go out with her!). But she is being ridden by Natalie Gemelova, who did appear in the same picture as Kirsty Milczarek if you need another excuse to look at that! The final link is the owners and breeders were who I owned my first horse with - the ill-fated That's Enough. They have had quite a bit of success with Sheena West in their time and this could be another.
5.00 Ghana & Ivory Coast Double 5/2 (LOST +9.46 - Ghana were looking the likelier side to score til they got hit on the counter and it was over. Ivory Coast, well Egypt were like a side possessed and I expect them to go on and win it now)
Cameroon have made it to the semi-finals with only one win inside 90 minutes and lost 4-2 to Egypt in the grooup stages. But with the host nation building up a head of steam and winning with 10 men in the quarter finals, I expect that run to come to an end this afternoon.
And whatever you may think of Didier Drogba he is the class act of African football and his and his teammates class should tell against a hard working Egypt team to set up the final everyone wanted to see.
8.30 Wade -2.5 legs to beat Jenkins 5/6 (LOST +8.46 - This looked done and dusted when Wadey ran up a 5-1 lead, and fair play to Jenkins for playing good darts to come back, but Wadey had chances to bury this and didn't)
Wadey will be in good spirits after ending The Power's 44 match unbeaten Premier League run last week, even if it was helped by Taylor' s poor doubles. The Bull however has struggled since qualifying for the Premier League playoffs last season and should be taken on here.
9.20 Lewis to beat Taylor 3/1 (LOST +7.46 - Another good performance from Lewis and he had the chances but couldn't double at the key times. Taylor still doesn't look comfortable with his new darts and could be vulnerable to Jenkins next week. Fortunately he has another monthe before meeting Barney)
This is not one for big stakes but I think the price is wrong. Taylor's new darts didn't seem to suit his usual 'stacking' method last week and they really cost him when he came to doubles. His eventual loss of his uneaten record will give other players hope, although Jackpot needs no confidence boost and would dearly love to get one over on his mentor. He played well and scored heavily last week so I wouldn't be surprised to see him go close.
10.10 Manley to beat (draw no bet) Mardle 10/11 (DRAW +7.46 - They don't call him 'One Dart' for nothing - 8 darts at doubles and hit 7. Fair play to Mardle for staying with him, and this Premier League could be closer than ever.)
Manley has been chalked up as the big outsider for the Premier League but he thrives on the gladiatorial atmosphere. Mardle only sneaked in with his World Championship win and last week seemed to revert to his old patchy form. I don't expect Manley to lose so the draw no bet seems the one to go for.
4.30 Southwell Rubilini 5/1 (LOST +10.46 - started to make headway in the straight but couldnt get to the leaders. Runs again today - sod's law will have her win, but best watched)
This fillie caught my eye in a number of ways. You'll be glad to know her form was the first though. She lost her maiden tag last time on her Southwell debut and clearly preferred this surface to Kempton. That was her first run for the under-rated Sheena West yard. Sheena never gets the headlines but does have a good record in the lower reaches of racing. (But no pics of her as she's not up to our recent standards - although a mate of mine used to go out with her!). But she is being ridden by Natalie Gemelova, who did appear in the same picture as Kirsty Milczarek if you need another excuse to look at that! The final link is the owners and breeders were who I owned my first horse with - the ill-fated That's Enough. They have had quite a bit of success with Sheena West in their time and this could be another.
5.00 Ghana & Ivory Coast Double 5/2 (LOST +9.46 - Ghana were looking the likelier side to score til they got hit on the counter and it was over. Ivory Coast, well Egypt were like a side possessed and I expect them to go on and win it now)
Cameroon have made it to the semi-finals with only one win inside 90 minutes and lost 4-2 to Egypt in the grooup stages. But with the host nation building up a head of steam and winning with 10 men in the quarter finals, I expect that run to come to an end this afternoon.
And whatever you may think of Didier Drogba he is the class act of African football and his and his teammates class should tell against a hard working Egypt team to set up the final everyone wanted to see.
8.30 Wade -2.5 legs to beat Jenkins 5/6 (LOST +8.46 - This looked done and dusted when Wadey ran up a 5-1 lead, and fair play to Jenkins for playing good darts to come back, but Wadey had chances to bury this and didn't)
Wadey will be in good spirits after ending The Power's 44 match unbeaten Premier League run last week, even if it was helped by Taylor' s poor doubles. The Bull however has struggled since qualifying for the Premier League playoffs last season and should be taken on here.
9.20 Lewis to beat Taylor 3/1 (LOST +7.46 - Another good performance from Lewis and he had the chances but couldn't double at the key times. Taylor still doesn't look comfortable with his new darts and could be vulnerable to Jenkins next week. Fortunately he has another monthe before meeting Barney)
This is not one for big stakes but I think the price is wrong. Taylor's new darts didn't seem to suit his usual 'stacking' method last week and they really cost him when he came to doubles. His eventual loss of his uneaten record will give other players hope, although Jackpot needs no confidence boost and would dearly love to get one over on his mentor. He played well and scored heavily last week so I wouldn't be surprised to see him go close.
10.10 Manley to beat (draw no bet) Mardle 10/11 (DRAW +7.46 - They don't call him 'One Dart' for nothing - 8 darts at doubles and hit 7. Fair play to Mardle for staying with him, and this Premier League could be closer than ever.)
Manley has been chalked up as the big outsider for the Premier League but he thrives on the gladiatorial atmosphere. Mardle only sneaked in with his World Championship win and last week seemed to revert to his old patchy form. I don't expect Manley to lose so the draw no bet seems the one to go for.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Snooker and Racing
Morning all. It seems Kirsty has caused a bit of a stir amongst you lot - I've had more comment son her than anything else! Well here's a bit more for you... http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article74768.ece
Today I'm swerving the pointless and unpredictable world of international friendlies and focussing on the baize of malta and the UK racetracks.
11am Hendry, Perry and Doherty Treble 47/28 (WON +9.21 - 4-2, 4-2, and 5-1, and Ken Doherty is looking very good)
All three of these hav straightforwardish tasks today. Steven Hendry takes on local hero Tony Drago, who I've always enjoyed watching, but he'snever had a safety game and now hi spotting ability is diminishing too.
Then Perry takes on rookie Alex Borg and should be the most routine victory of the three, before the revitalised Ken Doherty sees off an out of form Joe Swail tonight.
(As you all seem to like a sporting lady, check out the referee of Ken and Joe's game, Michaela Tabb. http://michaela-tabb.blogspot.com/ There are too many snooker puns!)
3.25 Carlisle Mrs O'Malley 9/4 (WON +11.46 - Donald McCain really is doing something special at the moment with another start to finish leader. Impressive performance)
Ginger Mccains operation is no different now it has passed to his son and two excellent pieces of training notched him another two winners at Sedgefield and made it 4 from 5 in February so far. Mrs O'Malley had a reasonable chasing debut last time out but should appreciate the better going and shorter trip, and with a lighter weight to cary, fingers crossed for another McCain winner.
Today I'm swerving the pointless and unpredictable world of international friendlies and focussing on the baize of malta and the UK racetracks.
11am Hendry, Perry and Doherty Treble 47/28 (WON +9.21 - 4-2, 4-2, and 5-1, and Ken Doherty is looking very good)
All three of these hav straightforwardish tasks today. Steven Hendry takes on local hero Tony Drago, who I've always enjoyed watching, but he'snever had a safety game and now hi spotting ability is diminishing too.
Then Perry takes on rookie Alex Borg and should be the most routine victory of the three, before the revitalised Ken Doherty sees off an out of form Joe Swail tonight.
(As you all seem to like a sporting lady, check out the referee of Ken and Joe's game, Michaela Tabb. http://michaela-tabb.blogspot.com/ There are too many snooker puns!)
3.25 Carlisle Mrs O'Malley 9/4 (WON +11.46 - Donald McCain really is doing something special at the moment with another start to finish leader. Impressive performance)
Ginger Mccains operation is no different now it has passed to his son and two excellent pieces of training notched him another two winners at Sedgefield and made it 4 from 5 in February so far. Mrs O'Malley had a reasonable chasing debut last time out but should appreciate the better going and shorter trip, and with a lighter weight to cary, fingers crossed for another McCain winner.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Football
Could quite sneak the second winner to edge us on again yesterday but we'll have another look today. Pretty quiet sporting week this though with meaningless football friendlies and poor quality racing.
2.10 Southwell Hawa Khana 11/2 (WON +6.13 - a cracking ride from Miss M made sure this was never in doubt once she came round the outside and took it on up the straight)
Kirsty Milczarek is the darling of the all-weather currently and for those of you who've seen pics of her you probably got excited when you heard she'd been touched off at Southwell yesterday! Well she's got the best out of this horse in his last two runs with two seconds, and today is the day to lose his maiden tag. Stop sniggering at the back!
7.45 Stockport to beat Bury 7/5 (WON 3-2 +7.53 - 1-0 up, 2-1 down, 3-2 win. Thats 11 golas in 4 days at Gigg Lane!)
While Manchester City take on their local rivals this weekend, there is big north east derby tonight at Gigg Lane where about 2,000 will flock to the game! ;-) That attendance probably won't be helped by Bury's 5-1 hammering by MK Dons on Satursay and the fact they haven't won a league game in 13 attempts in nearly 3 months, and have lost taken only 13 points from 14 home games. Stockport meanwhile are unbeaten in 6 and have won 7 games on the road, 2 more than at home. I expect the bragging rights to head back down the M60.
2.10 Southwell Hawa Khana 11/2 (WON +6.13 - a cracking ride from Miss M made sure this was never in doubt once she came round the outside and took it on up the straight)
Kirsty Milczarek is the darling of the all-weather currently and for those of you who've seen pics of her you probably got excited when you heard she'd been touched off at Southwell yesterday! Well she's got the best out of this horse in his last two runs with two seconds, and today is the day to lose his maiden tag. Stop sniggering at the back!
7.45 Stockport to beat Bury 7/5 (WON 3-2 +7.53 - 1-0 up, 2-1 down, 3-2 win. Thats 11 golas in 4 days at Gigg Lane!)
While Manchester City take on their local rivals this weekend, there is big north east derby tonight at Gigg Lane where about 2,000 will flock to the game! ;-) That attendance probably won't be helped by Bury's 5-1 hammering by MK Dons on Satursay and the fact they haven't won a league game in 13 attempts in nearly 3 months, and have lost taken only 13 points from 14 home games. Stockport meanwhile are unbeaten in 6 and have won 7 games on the road, 2 more than at home. I expect the bragging rights to head back down the M60.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Racing and Football
Its a fairly sparse day today as the sporting world comes to terms with England's rugby team getting beaten by a Welsh club side, the Manning family celebrate back-to-back Superbowl wins for different sons, Derby go two games unbeaten for the first time this season, and Fulham go into reverse and come from behind to win a game rather than throwing away a lead. What is going on??? Fortunately we are still bringing in winners here and will look to find a few more today.
1.40 Lingfield Whats For Tea 15/8 (WON +2.625 - comfortable winner and another excellent ride from Richard Kigscote)
Richard Kingscote seems to get the best out of this horse, riding the fillies only win and all four second places. 2nds over 6f and 7f last two runs have been staying on so 1m could be the right trip to double the win column.
3.20 Southwell Lascelles 11/4 (LOST +1.625 - raced keenly but never in the shake-up)
4 runs so far for this maiden, but like the above selection has looked like a longer trip would suit. The winner she followed home last time has since gone on to win again so I expect this filly to lose her maiden tag this afternoon too.
7.45 Woking to draw with Forest Green 9/4 (LOST +0.625 - Woking one 1-0. Forest Green threw everything at them in the second half but couldnt break through)
Woking are the Conference's draw specialists with 12 stalemates from 31 games so far, 2 or 3 more than the 'normal'. Forest Green are bang on the 'normal' with 8 from 28. Both clubs have drawn their last two games and this fixture in the league earlier in the season ended 1-1. So by now you can see why I expect a draw tonight!
1.40 Lingfield Whats For Tea 15/8 (WON +2.625 - comfortable winner and another excellent ride from Richard Kigscote)
Richard Kingscote seems to get the best out of this horse, riding the fillies only win and all four second places. 2nds over 6f and 7f last two runs have been staying on so 1m could be the right trip to double the win column.
3.20 Southwell Lascelles 11/4 (LOST +1.625 - raced keenly but never in the shake-up)
4 runs so far for this maiden, but like the above selection has looked like a longer trip would suit. The winner she followed home last time has since gone on to win again so I expect this filly to lose her maiden tag this afternoon too.
7.45 Woking to draw with Forest Green 9/4 (LOST +0.625 - Woking one 1-0. Forest Green threw everything at them in the second half but couldnt break through)
Woking are the Conference's draw specialists with 12 stalemates from 31 games so far, 2 or 3 more than the 'normal'. Forest Green are bang on the 'normal' with 8 from 28. Both clubs have drawn their last two games and this fixture in the league earlier in the season ended 1-1. So by now you can see why I expect a draw tonight!
Friday, February 1, 2008
Cricket and Golf
Well, after the shock of the Power throwing away his record last night, its time for a new month, so lets get that profit column off to a good start.
12.30 West Indies to beat South Africa 3/1 (LOST -1.00 - Windies couldn't quite get enough on the board despite a late flurry and then couldnt quite get key wickets)
The West Indies seem to have got to grips with the South African attack at last in the 3rd game of this five match series, and so now could mount a serious challenge on a ground that has no historical advantage for the home side. Their last seven ODI's in Durban have yielded 3 wins, 3 losses and a tie. So 3/1 seems worth a nibble
3.07 Calcavecchia to win 3-ball price 7/4 (WON +0.75 - Didn't look good after 14 holes with Calc +3, Hoffman one shot ahead and Bohn two shots ahead. But an eagle and two birdies pushed Calc ahead and a win for us)
Calc knows this Scottsdale track better than anyone, having won here 3 times, and a respectable -1 yesterday puts him well positioned to make the weekend. Jason Bohn also carded -1 but his putting was poor, so I'd take Calc to hit a few more fairways and greens and overcome him today. The third player, Charley Hoffman shot four birdies (one more than either of the other two), but five bogies and a double bogey 7 showed how he struggled to hit the greens and he will be scrambling to still be here for the weekend
12.30 West Indies to beat South Africa 3/1 (LOST -1.00 - Windies couldn't quite get enough on the board despite a late flurry and then couldnt quite get key wickets)
The West Indies seem to have got to grips with the South African attack at last in the 3rd game of this five match series, and so now could mount a serious challenge on a ground that has no historical advantage for the home side. Their last seven ODI's in Durban have yielded 3 wins, 3 losses and a tie. So 3/1 seems worth a nibble
3.07 Calcavecchia to win 3-ball price 7/4 (WON +0.75 - Didn't look good after 14 holes with Calc +3, Hoffman one shot ahead and Bohn two shots ahead. But an eagle and two birdies pushed Calc ahead and a win for us)
Calc knows this Scottsdale track better than anyone, having won here 3 times, and a respectable -1 yesterday puts him well positioned to make the weekend. Jason Bohn also carded -1 but his putting was poor, so I'd take Calc to hit a few more fairways and greens and overcome him today. The third player, Charley Hoffman shot four birdies (one more than either of the other two), but five bogies and a double bogey 7 showed how he struggled to hit the greens and he will be scrambling to still be here for the weekend
January Review
Firstly, thank you to all my readers - 122 different people apparently read this blog this month. Hopefully you all made a few quid.
January profit : £24.96
Success rate : 43% (20/46)
Overall profit : £29.56
Overall success : 48% (32/67)
January profit : £24.96
Success rate : 43% (20/46)
Overall profit : £29.56
Overall success : 48% (32/67)
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