Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Football and Rugby Union

Yes I'm back finally! After a golfing tour of Kentucky and Kerry there's one last blast to end the month, and its largely back to the big round ball.

7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.

7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.

7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.

7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.

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