Friday, September 5, 2008

Racing, Tennis, Rugby League, Cricket

Firstly apologies for the lack of tips last month and so far this month. This month could be a bit sketchy with some business trips and the golf, but I'll do my best for you. And to start to make up for it there's a veritable feast today.

2.30 Catterick Placepot - MEETING ABANDONED
I'm never normally one for the multiples etc, but I fancy 3 at least so why not have some fun. And remember the law - the race after you get knocked out you will definitely have had the winner!
In the first Majuba has been progressing solidly and with all bar Mark Wallace's second string having shown their hand its one of the easier maidens to pick from.
Orchestrion is one of my fancied horses. She didnt like the drop back to 6f and the all-weather surface last time out, but back to 7f on turf should be in the picture again.
The 3.30 is the tough one, and I liked White Moss until it was withdrawn, so I'm going for Sporting Gesture. At 11, this will be his 110th race, but is still going strong with a good 2nd last time out and has won 4 of his 13 career wins in September.
Northern Bolt is the fourth leg in what looks a match bet between the two Nicholls horses. It will be close but I think Bolt's second place last time was very similar to Ice Planet's third, but the pound difference in weights could see him edge it this time.
Bertie Vista has progressed in all three of his runs at 7f and in a very poor maiden he should be the one to lose that tag.
And the final one I'm going for is Let It Be, looking for her fifth win in a row. She also has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs at course and distance. She will go up 1lb next week but still looked to have a bit in hand last week, so with last time's claimer taking 7lbs off again, she should be on the premises.

6.30 Jankovic to beat Dementieva 6/4 (WON +1.00 - straight sets victory)
Dementieva was the in-form player coming into this US Open, and hasn't dropped a set yet, but I think she is over-priced in this semi-final - her first real test so far. Previous meetings are definitely in Jelena's favour and she's still ranked 2 in the world, so hardly a spent force! Elena won on clay in Berlin, but Jankovic has won the previous two hard court meetings (2008 and 2006) in straight sets, and won 7 of the last 9 sets on all surfaces, which makes 6/4 very appealing)

8.00 Saints -14 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST +0.00 - a very strong start by Wigan saw Saints just claw back from a draw in tricky conditions)
There are claims being made that this could be the best Saints side of all time and I wouldnt argue against that. Their average winning margin this season is over 18 points and they look stronger every game they add to their unbeaten record. And if 18 is their average margin, Wigan are an average side. Won 13, lost 11, points difference of -50, and that negative margin is because they havent handled the top sides, as witnessed by their 52-16 mauling by Leeds last time out. Yes they'll be keen to put that right against their big rivals, but so far this season they have been beaten 57-16, 46-12, and the last meeting of last season was 46-10. If anything Saints have got better and Wigan worse, so that 14 point handicap should easily get covered.

Djokovic to win US Open 7/2 (LOST -1.00 - at 1-1 I thought he would storm back but Federer found his old form and stormed through)
The men's semi-finals arent til tomorrow, but I think Novak Djokovic's value will be gone after that. He is just odds against to beat Federer tomorrow but the Swiss master was less than convincing in his 3-0 victory over Giles Muller last night. A better player than 130th ranked Muller would have clinched the first and third set tie-breaks when the opportunities were given and Djokovic's pace and deep hitting ability will undo Federer if he continues to move sluggishly for him and fail to hit his first serve with his usual Swiss clock like regularity. That will then set up a final with Nadal (I cant see Murray beating him), against whom his record stands up. Rafa beat him in Beijing, but I'm not convinced it was 100% from either player that day, but even including that, Novak has won 4 of their last 6 meetings on hard courts, which have all been in the last two seasons, and all been done in straight sets! Djoko and Rafa to split the Slams two each.

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