The same combination as yesterday but hopefully a different result!
11 Monty to be top England bowler 4/1 (LOST +16.58 - one LBW decision from running through Sth Africa but it didnt come)
England's attack came under scrutiny after Headingley, but Broad and Les are gone and in comes reliable Sidey and Colly's occasional swingers - which will mean more bowling for Monty. He's the leading wicket taker so far in the series on tracks which weren't necessarily spinner friendly tracks, and bear in mind, that most of the bowling has been in the first innings. While the groundsman at Edgbaston says the pitch will suit the swing bowlers, he also expects it to crack and crumble towards the end, making Monty even more likely to take wickets. So him being 4th favourite and 4/1 seems too good to miss!
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Racing and Cricket
Something you should all be aware of. You should all know by now my leaning to Bet365 given their excellent range of markets, easy to use website and mobile betting services, and most importantly their best odds guaranteed on all horse racing. Well Paddy Power have stepped up and are now offering the same on all horse and greyhound racing. And with their random special offers on various markets, this makes them another 'must have account'. http://www.paddypower.com/
3.45 Beverley Motafarred 3/1 (LOST +19.58 - was held up near the rear and missed the kick of the first two, and despite finishing well was never going to get to them)
Two solid trends for this race - you have to go back more than 10 years to find a 3-y-o winner and, with the exception of 2004 when Splodger Mac at 66/1 touched off the 3/1 fav by a neck, every winner since 1999 has no longer than 5/1. Mesbaah has been inconsistent, although the firmer ground suits him, and so I'm going for Micky Hammond's Motafarred who ran well to win at Pontefract on good to firm in May, his second win on that ground (his other was on firm), and has been progressing nicely since.
We havent been over jumps for a while, but I've spotted a nice each way opportunity north of the border tonight. Peter Niven and Brian Hughes had a nice second last night at Uttoxeter and they team up again tonight. This horse was back over hurdles for the first time in 21 months four weeks ago also at this track, and he was straight back into it. His one hurdles win came at this track too, so with the genuine possibility of him coming on for his first run at a racetrack in 6 months, a place can definitely be expected.
3.45 Beverley Motafarred 3/1 (LOST +19.58 - was held up near the rear and missed the kick of the first two, and despite finishing well was never going to get to them)
Two solid trends for this race - you have to go back more than 10 years to find a 3-y-o winner and, with the exception of 2004 when Splodger Mac at 66/1 touched off the 3/1 fav by a neck, every winner since 1999 has no longer than 5/1. Mesbaah has been inconsistent, although the firmer ground suits him, and so I'm going for Micky Hammond's Motafarred who ran well to win at Pontefract on good to firm in May, his second win on that ground (his other was on firm), and has been progressing nicely since.
4.40 Leicestershire beat Warwickshire 13/10 (LOST +18.58 - another high scoring game with 277 the target, and again a good start but quick wickets saw the chase fall away)
As we saw last night, Essex are a very handy one day side these days, despite being in Division Two of the Pro 40 league. They have now won 2 and tied one of their 3 games in this format, are in the final of the Friends Provident and reached the semis of the 20/20. So Leicestershires 255 runs per side tie against them last week can be franked as a good performance. And with 5 wins from 7 completed games in the FP, that result wasnt just a one off. Both FP games between these sides were affected by rain. The first was reduced to 23 overs a side and Leicestershire won. The second was interrupted and eventually abandoned 19 overs into Leicestershire's innings after a steady start and they can count themselves unlucky to lose under D/L. Warwickshire are a decent outfit, that is not to be denied, and they will be desparate not to lose their second game in this tournament after Kent took the spoils last week. But those stats for Leicestershire and a 13/10 price are too tempting.
8.45 Perth Mystic Glen e/w 7/1 (LOST +17.58 - they finished very strung out and our selection was way back)We havent been over jumps for a while, but I've spotted a nice each way opportunity north of the border tonight. Peter Niven and Brian Hughes had a nice second last night at Uttoxeter and they team up again tonight. This horse was back over hurdles for the first time in 21 months four weeks ago also at this track, and he was straight back into it. His one hurdles win came at this track too, so with the genuine possibility of him coming on for his first run at a racetrack in 6 months, a place can definitely be expected.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Cricket
A marvellously hot weekend. Bet365 finally let me down yesterday with no prices on the polo! For the record I would have backed Australia to beat England, but the good news was that the convicts were dispatched 10-9. It must be tough to ride a horse with a ball and chain on your leg though! Just the one bet today on a quiet Monday...
4.10 Derbyshire to beat Essex 6/4 (LOST +20.58 - Derbyshire continued to bat well, only really falling away late on when chasing 304. But Bopara's 112* and 4-52 were the match winners)
Derbyshire have been scoring runs for fun in July. In the tour match against Bangladesh A last week 298-6 in 75 overs in first innings; knocking off 222 for 4 in 35 overs against a useful Northants attack including Hall, van der Wath, Klusener and Boje; 485-7 in just 113 overs, and 278 for 5 in 60 overs against the same attack in a championship game. In the Friends Provident Trophy they missed out on qualifying when they were the only side in the North Division to get rained off against Scotland and 3 of their 8 matches were rained off, none of which were against Durham who topped the group. Essex also amassed 9 points in the FP Trophy, but finished second so qualified and went on to beat Yorkshire in the semis, and beat the same side in their opening Pro40 match. However they are now without a win on the road since 17th June, 6 matches ago, after their 20/20 defeat to Kent on Saturday. Derbyshire are trialling a new screen to block the sun from stopping play tonight, and the weather in Derby is currently glorious so we can be confident of a full game. And in which case, Bet365's 6/4 looks tasty, with Corals as tight as 6/5.
4.10 Derbyshire to beat Essex 6/4 (LOST +20.58 - Derbyshire continued to bat well, only really falling away late on when chasing 304. But Bopara's 112* and 4-52 were the match winners)
Derbyshire have been scoring runs for fun in July. In the tour match against Bangladesh A last week 298-6 in 75 overs in first innings; knocking off 222 for 4 in 35 overs against a useful Northants attack including Hall, van der Wath, Klusener and Boje; 485-7 in just 113 overs, and 278 for 5 in 60 overs against the same attack in a championship game. In the Friends Provident Trophy they missed out on qualifying when they were the only side in the North Division to get rained off against Scotland and 3 of their 8 matches were rained off, none of which were against Durham who topped the group. Essex also amassed 9 points in the FP Trophy, but finished second so qualified and went on to beat Yorkshire in the semis, and beat the same side in their opening Pro40 match. However they are now without a win on the road since 17th June, 6 matches ago, after their 20/20 defeat to Kent on Saturday. Derbyshire are trialling a new screen to block the sun from stopping play tonight, and the weather in Derby is currently glorious so we can be confident of a full game. And in which case, Bet365's 6/4 looks tasty, with Corals as tight as 6/5.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Darts and Baseball
Quiet sporting day but some cracking darts action tonight with the semi's of the World Matchplay.
7.00 Priestley+7.5 vs Taylor 11/10 (LOST +20.81 - 17-8 was the final score. At 15-8 it looked like we'd sneak in but the Power drove home his 105.6 average and won 17-8)
The semi-finals are best of 33, so for this to come in Dennis needs to get 10 legs, and Dennis has won every match by just the minimum necessary 2 legs, while The Power has been blasting opponents away. However, Priestley's winning margins show the tenacity of the Yorkshireman and he wont give up against his old rival tonight until the last double is hit. And The Power wasnt quite up to his own high standards last night - his 3-dart average dipping below 100 for the first time this week, down to a human-like 95. Dennis will take advantage of any slip-ups by the World Number 1, and I fancy he could push Phil closer than the bookies think.
12.05 LA Angels bt Baltimore 10/13 (WON 6-5 +21.58 - 3 runs in the 7th innings almost brought the Orioles back into the game at 5-4 but the Angels saw it home)
This should be a gimme. LA top the West Division of the American League with a 61.4% win ratio and 80% of their last 10. Baltimore made it 3 losses in a row with a 7-1 defeat at home to a Blue Jays side who were less than 50% before last night. The Orioles are 3 from 10 in recent form. So while 10/13 might not be your favourite price, it looks one to take advantage of.
7.00 Priestley+7.5 vs Taylor 11/10 (LOST +20.81 - 17-8 was the final score. At 15-8 it looked like we'd sneak in but the Power drove home his 105.6 average and won 17-8)
The semi-finals are best of 33, so for this to come in Dennis needs to get 10 legs, and Dennis has won every match by just the minimum necessary 2 legs, while The Power has been blasting opponents away. However, Priestley's winning margins show the tenacity of the Yorkshireman and he wont give up against his old rival tonight until the last double is hit. And The Power wasnt quite up to his own high standards last night - his 3-dart average dipping below 100 for the first time this week, down to a human-like 95. Dennis will take advantage of any slip-ups by the World Number 1, and I fancy he could push Phil closer than the bookies think.
12.05 LA Angels bt Baltimore 10/13 (WON 6-5 +21.58 - 3 runs in the 7th innings almost brought the Orioles back into the game at 5-4 but the Angels saw it home)
This should be a gimme. LA top the West Division of the American League with a 61.4% win ratio and 80% of their last 10. Baltimore made it 3 losses in a row with a 7-1 defeat at home to a Blue Jays side who were less than 50% before last night. The Orioles are 3 from 10 in recent form. So while 10/13 might not be your favourite price, it looks one to take advantage of.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Darts
A overall flat day yesterday with neither double coming in. So I'm stepping up for a treble today!
7.10 Taylor, Wade & McDine treble 11/9 (WON +21.81 - Wade easily dispatched an unwell Jones, the Power averaged a ridiculous 109.7 in beating Colin Osborne, and McDine put in another fine performance to win 13-9. Unfortunately for him he plays Taylor in the next round)
I was going to put Kevin McDine up on his own at 4/5, but with these two bankers we can enhance that to odds against. The Power was excellent last night with a 3-dart average of 103.5, and while Steve Beaton pushed him to get to 10-6, The Adonis did post a 3-dart average better than any of the other 14 players yesterday. The Power didnt lose a leg against the throw and despite losing to Osbourne in Bristol, I dont foresee any problems tonight.
James Wade is still waiting for his first match in defence of his title, but won't allow the second round games going on around him to sway him from his task in hand and he should go through 10-5 or 10-6.
Kevin McDine played excellently last night, averaging 96 in defeating Ady Lewis 10-8, having been 4-1 down. He has the big match, TV tournament mentality and while Mark Walsh blew Raymond Scholten away on Sunday, the Tripod didnt score like he is capable of, and has been struggling of late. It should be a cracker and Sid Waddell will be backing his fellow Geordie, and I expect him to sneak through to the last 8.
7.10 Taylor, Wade & McDine treble 11/9 (WON +21.81 - Wade easily dispatched an unwell Jones, the Power averaged a ridiculous 109.7 in beating Colin Osborne, and McDine put in another fine performance to win 13-9. Unfortunately for him he plays Taylor in the next round)
I was going to put Kevin McDine up on his own at 4/5, but with these two bankers we can enhance that to odds against. The Power was excellent last night with a 3-dart average of 103.5, and while Steve Beaton pushed him to get to 10-6, The Adonis did post a 3-dart average better than any of the other 14 players yesterday. The Power didnt lose a leg against the throw and despite losing to Osbourne in Bristol, I dont foresee any problems tonight.
James Wade is still waiting for his first match in defence of his title, but won't allow the second round games going on around him to sway him from his task in hand and he should go through 10-5 or 10-6.
Kevin McDine played excellently last night, averaging 96 in defeating Ady Lewis 10-8, having been 4-1 down. He has the big match, TV tournament mentality and while Mark Walsh blew Raymond Scholten away on Sunday, the Tripod didnt score like he is capable of, and has been struggling of late. It should be a cracker and Sid Waddell will be backing his fellow Geordie, and I expect him to sneak through to the last 8.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Darts, Racing and Baseball
Welcome back. Sorry, been a bit busy of late, but its time to get some more blogs posted and start playing with the McDowell profit. You didn't miss much though - I largely steered clear of The Open with an e/w on Cink and a final afternoon e/w on Poulter. Anyway, we've got darts on again this week, so we'll be getting stuck into the lords of the tungsten.
1.10 Priestley & Painter Double 5/4 (LOST +18.59 - Dennis won 10-8, and Painter recovered from 8-4 down to 8-8, but then fluffed some doubles and lost 10-8)
Dennis Priestley is a fighter, both on the oche and off it as his recent battler with cancer has proved. But now he's over that he's thrown some good darts in recent tournaments, beating James Wade in a recent non-TV event and losing in the semi's of the US Open to The Power. Adrian Gray is no mug, but Priestley should see him off to set up an interesting 2nd round tie with the still out of form Terry Jenkins.
Kevin 'The Artist' Painter showed how good he can be when he made the World Champs semi's last year and averaged 103.68 in Vegas a fortnight ago - which only The Power could beat. He will relish taking on Barney in the 2nd round, so while 1/2 is that enticing, the 5/4 double is worth a decent go.
3.45 Yarmouth Quaroma 3/1 (WON +21.59 - an excellent ride by Frankie McDonald on a good horse who could yet have more improvement in her)
4 runs on turf and has finished 3rd, 1st, 5th and 2nd, so should feature today in what looks to be a match between the favourite Punchin, and our selection. The 2nd by a length last time out was her first step up to 6f from the minimum trip, and she looked to come on for it. Punching has recorded 2 wins from 10 runs and today carries 5lbs higher than his winning mark, so I'm willing to take him on.
5.00 Ayr Casino Night 15/4 (LOST +20.59 - looked like a good day when leading with 2f to go, but then faded badly)
Another 2 horse race on paper, and another one to take on the favourite with. Our salecetion won nicely when made all and staying on over 7f at Beverley in May, for which she went up 6lbs. Since then she has shown little, until tried in cheekpieces last time out and was a 2l second, but a further 7l clear of the rest. She now races off 2lbs lighter than that Beverley win. Bourse also won in May off the same mark of 60 coincidentally, his couple of 3rds from 4 runs has meant he still carries 4lbs more than that win, so hence I'm siding with Casino Night.
12.05am Toronto & Detroit Double 3/1 (LOST +19.59 - Toronto lost 8-3 with the 5th innings being decisive as with 2 outs, the Orioles picked up 2 further runs to lead 5-3 rather than remain tied. Detroit however look to me like World Series potentials now, and battered KC 19-4 with 10 runs in the 8th taking the score to 19-0!)
The battle of the basement in the East Division of the American Laegue tonight with Toronto heading north to Baltimore after a 9-4 victory at division leaders Tampa Bay last night, giving the Blue Jays a 60% win ratio in their last 10 games. Alex Rios found the middle of his bat at last and that could be the key to beating basement side Baltimore who have lost 7 of their last 10 and went down 5-1 at home to Detroit last night. That win for Detroit was laregly down to Justin Verlander only allowing six baserunners and at one point retiring 16 consecutive batters. Their opponents tonight, Kansas City, won a tight encounter last night 8-7 against the White Sox, largely due to a poor first innings from John Danks, who conceded 4 runs. The Tigers wont allow such a start, so I fancy Detroit to make it an away double tonight.
1.10 Priestley & Painter Double 5/4 (LOST +18.59 - Dennis won 10-8, and Painter recovered from 8-4 down to 8-8, but then fluffed some doubles and lost 10-8)
Dennis Priestley is a fighter, both on the oche and off it as his recent battler with cancer has proved. But now he's over that he's thrown some good darts in recent tournaments, beating James Wade in a recent non-TV event and losing in the semi's of the US Open to The Power. Adrian Gray is no mug, but Priestley should see him off to set up an interesting 2nd round tie with the still out of form Terry Jenkins.
Kevin 'The Artist' Painter showed how good he can be when he made the World Champs semi's last year and averaged 103.68 in Vegas a fortnight ago - which only The Power could beat. He will relish taking on Barney in the 2nd round, so while 1/2 is that enticing, the 5/4 double is worth a decent go.
3.45 Yarmouth Quaroma 3/1 (WON +21.59 - an excellent ride by Frankie McDonald on a good horse who could yet have more improvement in her)
4 runs on turf and has finished 3rd, 1st, 5th and 2nd, so should feature today in what looks to be a match between the favourite Punchin, and our selection. The 2nd by a length last time out was her first step up to 6f from the minimum trip, and she looked to come on for it. Punching has recorded 2 wins from 10 runs and today carries 5lbs higher than his winning mark, so I'm willing to take him on.
5.00 Ayr Casino Night 15/4 (LOST +20.59 - looked like a good day when leading with 2f to go, but then faded badly)
Another 2 horse race on paper, and another one to take on the favourite with. Our salecetion won nicely when made all and staying on over 7f at Beverley in May, for which she went up 6lbs. Since then she has shown little, until tried in cheekpieces last time out and was a 2l second, but a further 7l clear of the rest. She now races off 2lbs lighter than that Beverley win. Bourse also won in May off the same mark of 60 coincidentally, his couple of 3rds from 4 runs has meant he still carries 4lbs more than that win, so hence I'm siding with Casino Night.
12.05am Toronto & Detroit Double 3/1 (LOST +19.59 - Toronto lost 8-3 with the 5th innings being decisive as with 2 outs, the Orioles picked up 2 further runs to lead 5-3 rather than remain tied. Detroit however look to me like World Series potentials now, and battered KC 19-4 with 10 runs in the 8th taking the score to 19-0!)
The battle of the basement in the East Division of the American Laegue tonight with Toronto heading north to Baltimore after a 9-4 victory at division leaders Tampa Bay last night, giving the Blue Jays a 60% win ratio in their last 10 games. Alex Rios found the middle of his bat at last and that could be the key to beating basement side Baltimore who have lost 7 of their last 10 and went down 5-1 at home to Detroit last night. That win for Detroit was laregly down to Justin Verlander only allowing six baserunners and at one point retiring 16 consecutive batters. Their opponents tonight, Kansas City, won a tight encounter last night 8-7 against the White Sox, largely due to a poor first innings from John Danks, who conceded 4 runs. The Tigers wont allow such a start, so I fancy Detroit to make it an away double tonight.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Golf, Cricket, Cycling and Racing
Back to proper cricket today and looks like we'll get some decent weather at Lords at last!
9.00 McDowell to win Scottish Open 40/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) (WON +22.59 - A well balanced four rounds with an excellent 3rd round in difficult conditions pushing hiim to the top of the leaderboard. I wouldnt touch the 33/1 for The Open though now)
Picking tournament winners outside of the majors is tough to do on the European Tour these days we so many players capabale and few stand out players - even Ernie isnt up there regularly now. If Phil Mickelson turns up to win he should go close, as he did last year, but his appearance fee may be enough to keep him happy and not push himself too much ahead of The Open. So I'd look for someone with a reason to push hard before the big one next week, but without the pressure of needing to qualify still. The main inspiration therefore has to be those on the cusp of Ryder Cup qualification who are currently in form, particularly if they have course form. Step forward Graeme McDowell. He was 11th here last year, 3rd last week at The London Club and 13th the week before in France, so his game is coming to the boil nicely. He currently occupies th 10th and final automatic spot in Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup side, so a decent performance here could help book his ticket for Louisville.
11.00 South Africa to beat England 13/8 (LOST +21.59 - Graeme Smith's decision to bowl is up there with Nasser in Brisbane and Ponting at Edgbaston. But there second innings has shown how they can still be a big threat in this series)
So this is the big test before the Ashes next summer, and will tell us how much further England have to go to try to repeat 2005. And with the sun shining over London this morning it could be that we get more play than feared earlier in the week. So the draw backpedals for me. Which means that there is only one winner, given how well visiting sides tend to play at Lords. South Africans have all played in English conditions so wont be as naive as the Kiwis, so we can measure the sides man for man. Yes the England bowlers are a decent attack, and will, on average, concede 300-350 in a test match first innings, but its England's inconsistent batting that will make the difference compared to South Africa's strong middle order and decent tail. You can see England all out for 250 much easier than the Bokke, and vice versa for 400+. I can see England having their days in this series and 3/1 the drawn series is interesting, but for game one, I'm siding with Graeme Smith's boys
11.20 Sylvain Chavanel to win Stage 6 of Tour de France e/w 28/1 (LOST +20.59 - when our man went off in a group of 3, it looked good, but the peloton were not letting him go and eventually reeled him in and spat him out the back)
There have been barely any climbs in the Tour so far, but today there are two Category 2 climbs in the last 50kms, which should prevent a sprint finish and see the polka dot jersey contenders to the fore. Having made an attack on day 2, he will be rested and ready for today's assault and will aim to get the climber's jersey back after giving it up last year when his Cofidis team withdrew after one of their riders tested positive.
4.55 Newmarket Northern Dare 9/4 (LOST +19.59 - got blocked when trying to move up a couple of times. I'm putting it down to jockey error - the difference between top and average jock's is not getting boxed in at key moments)
Another handicap good thing, due to go up 5lbs. But these are not always the shoe-ins they are touted as pre-race. However, Northern Dare has been steadily improving all season and his trainer has a cracking record in this race. I was first drawn to his 3 wins in a row from 2001 to 2003, but its better than just that. 14 runners in 8 years have yielded 3 winners, 4 seconds, a thrid, and three fourths - which included the second and third in 2006 and the 1-2 in 2002. So I'm confident this good thing will have every chance.
9.00 McDowell to win Scottish Open 40/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) (WON +22.59 - A well balanced four rounds with an excellent 3rd round in difficult conditions pushing hiim to the top of the leaderboard. I wouldnt touch the 33/1 for The Open though now)
Picking tournament winners outside of the majors is tough to do on the European Tour these days we so many players capabale and few stand out players - even Ernie isnt up there regularly now. If Phil Mickelson turns up to win he should go close, as he did last year, but his appearance fee may be enough to keep him happy and not push himself too much ahead of The Open. So I'd look for someone with a reason to push hard before the big one next week, but without the pressure of needing to qualify still. The main inspiration therefore has to be those on the cusp of Ryder Cup qualification who are currently in form, particularly if they have course form. Step forward Graeme McDowell. He was 11th here last year, 3rd last week at The London Club and 13th the week before in France, so his game is coming to the boil nicely. He currently occupies th 10th and final automatic spot in Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup side, so a decent performance here could help book his ticket for Louisville.
11.00 South Africa to beat England 13/8 (LOST +21.59 - Graeme Smith's decision to bowl is up there with Nasser in Brisbane and Ponting at Edgbaston. But there second innings has shown how they can still be a big threat in this series)
So this is the big test before the Ashes next summer, and will tell us how much further England have to go to try to repeat 2005. And with the sun shining over London this morning it could be that we get more play than feared earlier in the week. So the draw backpedals for me. Which means that there is only one winner, given how well visiting sides tend to play at Lords. South Africans have all played in English conditions so wont be as naive as the Kiwis, so we can measure the sides man for man. Yes the England bowlers are a decent attack, and will, on average, concede 300-350 in a test match first innings, but its England's inconsistent batting that will make the difference compared to South Africa's strong middle order and decent tail. You can see England all out for 250 much easier than the Bokke, and vice versa for 400+. I can see England having their days in this series and 3/1 the drawn series is interesting, but for game one, I'm siding with Graeme Smith's boys
11.20 Sylvain Chavanel to win Stage 6 of Tour de France e/w 28/1 (LOST +20.59 - when our man went off in a group of 3, it looked good, but the peloton were not letting him go and eventually reeled him in and spat him out the back)
There have been barely any climbs in the Tour so far, but today there are two Category 2 climbs in the last 50kms, which should prevent a sprint finish and see the polka dot jersey contenders to the fore. Having made an attack on day 2, he will be rested and ready for today's assault and will aim to get the climber's jersey back after giving it up last year when his Cofidis team withdrew after one of their riders tested positive.
4.55 Newmarket Northern Dare 9/4 (LOST +19.59 - got blocked when trying to move up a couple of times. I'm putting it down to jockey error - the difference between top and average jock's is not getting boxed in at key moments)
Another handicap good thing, due to go up 5lbs. But these are not always the shoe-ins they are touted as pre-race. However, Northern Dare has been steadily improving all season and his trainer has a cracking record in this race. I was first drawn to his 3 wins in a row from 2001 to 2003, but its better than just that. 14 runners in 8 years have yielded 3 winners, 4 seconds, a thrid, and three fourths - which included the second and third in 2006 and the 1-2 in 2002. So I'm confident this good thing will have every chance.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Racing and Cricket
What a performance from the youngster Malan. I have Ladbrokes eliciting me a price on him to play for England at some point. Will let you know.
2.35 Newmarket Heart Shaped 5/2 (4th -1.41 - maybe didnt liek the ground, maybe needs 5f, maybe just isnt quite good enough for this level)
The main event today is the Falmouth, the race after this one with Darjina being taken on by Finsceal Beo, but this looks a better value bet. I don't need to tell any of you about Aiden O'Brien's record this summer - just awesome. But you may not be quite so aware of his 4 wins from 7 2-y-o runners at this meeting. Add those two facts to 4 winning favourites of this race in the last 5 years, and 5 in last 7 years, and you can see why Heart Shaped is preferable to Darjina in the following race. If O'Brien and Murtagh do come up trumps, I might wager some of the profit on Darjina but that race isnt always a favourites race, so it wont be in much size.
5.40 Warwickshire to beat Kent 6/5 (LOST -2.41 - postponed to the next night, so the weather card was negated and Darren Stevens 69 off 36 balls with Kent 98 for 5 was the difference)
You know my views on 20/20, luck, and how this is escalated in bad weather forecasts and hence why the outsiders are always worth a look. But like last night compare the form. Warwickshire topped their group with 6 wins and Kent were a 'best 3rd placed' side also with 6 wins, and Warwickshire had a slightly better net run rate. However the Bears had 2 washouts - one against bottom of the table Gloucestershire and one against a Glamorgan side who ended up with a 50/50 win/loss ratio, so it would be a reasonable assumption to make they would have won at least one of those and overall increased their net run rate. And then add in that they are at home - both sides through so far have been at home - and 6/5 looks too good to miss.
2.35 Newmarket Heart Shaped 5/2 (4th -1.41 - maybe didnt liek the ground, maybe needs 5f, maybe just isnt quite good enough for this level)
The main event today is the Falmouth, the race after this one with Darjina being taken on by Finsceal Beo, but this looks a better value bet. I don't need to tell any of you about Aiden O'Brien's record this summer - just awesome. But you may not be quite so aware of his 4 wins from 7 2-y-o runners at this meeting. Add those two facts to 4 winning favourites of this race in the last 5 years, and 5 in last 7 years, and you can see why Heart Shaped is preferable to Darjina in the following race. If O'Brien and Murtagh do come up trumps, I might wager some of the profit on Darjina but that race isnt always a favourites race, so it wont be in much size.
5.40 Warwickshire to beat Kent 6/5 (LOST -2.41 - postponed to the next night, so the weather card was negated and Darren Stevens 69 off 36 balls with Kent 98 for 5 was the difference)
You know my views on 20/20, luck, and how this is escalated in bad weather forecasts and hence why the outsiders are always worth a look. But like last night compare the form. Warwickshire topped their group with 6 wins and Kent were a 'best 3rd placed' side also with 6 wins, and Warwickshire had a slightly better net run rate. However the Bears had 2 washouts - one against bottom of the table Gloucestershire and one against a Glamorgan side who ended up with a 50/50 win/loss ratio, so it would be a reasonable assumption to make they would have won at least one of those and overall increased their net run rate. And then add in that they are at home - both sides through so far have been at home - and 6/5 looks too good to miss.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Racing and Cricket
20/20 quarter finals try to continue amidst the showers today and time to stick with the outsiders.
2.45 Wolverhampton Le Chiffre 5/2 (3rd -1.66 - looked to have stolen the race when he went 6 lengths clear off the bend, but tied up towards the line and was beaten by half a length)
In the latest James Bond film, Le Chiffre was a banker for various terrorists, and tortures bond by threatening to castrate him after losing a fortune to him in a poker match. Well Le Chiffre is my banker for today, and as a gelding he's already had his balls chopped so he can focus on not losing our bet. In this seller he is best off according to the official ratings, and he was 3/4 length second here last week after the jockey dropped his whip with a furlong to go. He won a similar race here on 10th July last year and then at Kempton 3 weeks later. If you believe the official ratings he is a slightly better horse today so 5/2 will be a nice price.
5.40 Middlesex to beat Lancashire 5/4 (WON -0.41 - God knows what price Middlesex were at 2-2 and 21-4, but a sublime 103 in 54 balls from Dawid Malan took the game out of the northerner's reach)
You look down the Lancashire line-up and names such as Loye, Vincent, Law, Cork, Flintoff, Chapple, Mahmood, all suggest this should be a powerhouse of a side in all formats of the game, and compared to Middlesex's main contributors Morgan, Malan, Godleman, Henderson, Murtagh, Nannes, an ill-informed observer may not be able to see beyond a Middlesex win. But do a bit more analysis on the actual results these teams achieved in the group stages of this competition. Lancashire won 6 of their 10 games, but all 6 were against the bottom three teams in their group - failing to register a win against Durham or Yorkshire. Middlesex, however, finished top of their group, which included the much talked about Essex side, and Middlesex completed a double over their rivals - including a win at the renamed 'Fortress Chelmsford'. The lads from north of the river have put together a great all-round team with no big stars, and despite giving up home advantage and playing at The Oval, 5/4 seems a big price.
2.45 Wolverhampton Le Chiffre 5/2 (3rd -1.66 - looked to have stolen the race when he went 6 lengths clear off the bend, but tied up towards the line and was beaten by half a length)
In the latest James Bond film, Le Chiffre was a banker for various terrorists, and tortures bond by threatening to castrate him after losing a fortune to him in a poker match. Well Le Chiffre is my banker for today, and as a gelding he's already had his balls chopped so he can focus on not losing our bet. In this seller he is best off according to the official ratings, and he was 3/4 length second here last week after the jockey dropped his whip with a furlong to go. He won a similar race here on 10th July last year and then at Kempton 3 weeks later. If you believe the official ratings he is a slightly better horse today so 5/2 will be a nice price.
5.40 Middlesex to beat Lancashire 5/4 (WON -0.41 - God knows what price Middlesex were at 2-2 and 21-4, but a sublime 103 in 54 balls from Dawid Malan took the game out of the northerner's reach)
You look down the Lancashire line-up and names such as Loye, Vincent, Law, Cork, Flintoff, Chapple, Mahmood, all suggest this should be a powerhouse of a side in all formats of the game, and compared to Middlesex's main contributors Morgan, Malan, Godleman, Henderson, Murtagh, Nannes, an ill-informed observer may not be able to see beyond a Middlesex win. But do a bit more analysis on the actual results these teams achieved in the group stages of this competition. Lancashire won 6 of their 10 games, but all 6 were against the bottom three teams in their group - failing to register a win against Durham or Yorkshire. Middlesex, however, finished top of their group, which included the much talked about Essex side, and Middlesex completed a double over their rivals - including a win at the renamed 'Fortress Chelmsford'. The lads from north of the river have put together a great all-round team with no big stars, and despite giving up home advantage and playing at The Oval, 5/4 seems a big price.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Cycling and Cricket
A great sporting weekend. How can anyone any longer justify women tennis players getting the same prize money as men. Compare the Williams sisters work this week compared to Rafa and R-Fed - no comparison. Hamilton paddled round Silverstone and the British press have another youngster to build up and destroy in our Wimbledon Girls winner. But without further ado, lets move on to this wet week's tips.
11.30 Mark Cavendish to win stage e/w 9/2 (LOST +0.34 - the Peloton let the escapees build up too much of a lead into a tricky run-in, and couldn't close the gap. Cavendish was set up nicely, and picked up some time bonuses at the finish, but that doesn't pay our bills!)
Its been a while since we had such a stellar performer in road racing from Britain, but Mark Cavendish looks to have a bright future ahead of him. I don't expect him to finish the Tour this year - with the Olympics ahead he won't want to destroy himself in the mountains - but this will be even more reason why he will be looking topick up a stage win or two early in the race. He had 11 road race wins last season, and has 7 so far this year, with 2 stage wins in the Giro d'Italia. He didn't get a stage win last year, not being helped by getting involved in crashes in key sprints. An uphill finish on Sunday meant the usual first day sprint didnt happen, then yesterday's stage was undulating towards the finish so he couldn't get organised to hit the front at the right moment. But today's stage is much flatter, and with his teammates finishing 2nd and 3rd yesterday, they look in the right form to lead him out to win today's stage.
5.10 Yorkshire bt Durham 6/4, Northants beat Essex 11/10, and 17/4 double (LOST -0.66 - after the farce at Durham, the Graham Napier show was on again at Chelmsford as first his batting made it tough for our tip Northants, and then his bowling ripped away any remaining hopes)
Luck can play a large part in the shortened version of the game that is Twenty20, and with bad weather all over the UK today, it could play even more of a part, with the possibility of one or both of thes quarter finals being reduced to 5 overs a side. Then they are a lottery, so it may pay to back the outsiders for both, and chance your arm with a better than 4/1 double.
11.30 Mark Cavendish to win stage e/w 9/2 (LOST +0.34 - the Peloton let the escapees build up too much of a lead into a tricky run-in, and couldn't close the gap. Cavendish was set up nicely, and picked up some time bonuses at the finish, but that doesn't pay our bills!)
Its been a while since we had such a stellar performer in road racing from Britain, but Mark Cavendish looks to have a bright future ahead of him. I don't expect him to finish the Tour this year - with the Olympics ahead he won't want to destroy himself in the mountains - but this will be even more reason why he will be looking topick up a stage win or two early in the race. He had 11 road race wins last season, and has 7 so far this year, with 2 stage wins in the Giro d'Italia. He didn't get a stage win last year, not being helped by getting involved in crashes in key sprints. An uphill finish on Sunday meant the usual first day sprint didnt happen, then yesterday's stage was undulating towards the finish so he couldn't get organised to hit the front at the right moment. But today's stage is much flatter, and with his teammates finishing 2nd and 3rd yesterday, they look in the right form to lead him out to win today's stage.
5.10 Yorkshire bt Durham 6/4, Northants beat Essex 11/10, and 17/4 double (LOST -0.66 - after the farce at Durham, the Graham Napier show was on again at Chelmsford as first his batting made it tough for our tip Northants, and then his bowling ripped away any remaining hopes)
Luck can play a large part in the shortened version of the game that is Twenty20, and with bad weather all over the UK today, it could play even more of a part, with the possibility of one or both of thes quarter finals being reduced to 5 overs a side. Then they are a lottery, so it may pay to back the outsiders for both, and chance your arm with a better than 4/1 double.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Tennis and Racing
So finally Murray is butchered out of the tournament. In fairness to him, grass isn't necessarily his best surface, but then neither is it for Nadal. I fancy Safin to upset the Fed and then lose to the Beast of Manacor in the final. Meanwhile its the mixed semi's today with the Williams brothers bullying their way into the final.
1.00 Williams v Williams Final 4/9, 2-0 & 2-0 7/5 (WON BOTH +1.84 - They are just too big and strong. So who's turn is it to win this time?)
Can it really be anything else? The sisters have not dropped a single set in either singles or as a doubles pairing over the last 10 days of the Championships, and they have only had to win one set each by tie-break. Dementieva the number 5 seed has gone to 3 sets 3 times, and was so close to going out last round but won her second set tie break 8-6 before winning the deciding set. Zheng has beaten Ivanovic and beat an erratic Vaidisova in 3 sets last round, but Serena is a different proposition. So back the Williams brothers, I mean sisters, to go through with ease, so the 7/5 about a pair of whitewashes is good for punt too - just like Fed and Rafa did yesterday.
1.40 Haydock Prelude e/w 8/1 (3rd +2.34 - with 2 furlongs to go, looked like he might challenge for the lead, but didn't quite get there, however stayed on well to claim the each way money)
This 7 year olds 4 wins have come in June, July and two in August, so he is now coming into his peak period. His 3 wins last year were over 12f so the trip will suit and he is due to go up a pound - back to his rating he won off last summer. The favourite Eventide could be anything having only had the one run on all-weather so 8/1 about Prelude looks good each way value to me in a 13 runner handicap.
8.30 Newbury Danseuse Volante e/w 5/1 (6th +1.34, flirted with the places on the run-in, but had spent his energy too early in the race)
Two good seconds for this horse this season when ridden by Eddie Ahern, either side of a 7th but on soft ground without Eddie piloting. Mr Ahern rides again tonight, and I expect this Danehill Dancer fillie to be up with the pace all the way.
1.00 Williams v Williams Final 4/9, 2-0 & 2-0 7/5 (WON BOTH +1.84 - They are just too big and strong. So who's turn is it to win this time?)
Can it really be anything else? The sisters have not dropped a single set in either singles or as a doubles pairing over the last 10 days of the Championships, and they have only had to win one set each by tie-break. Dementieva the number 5 seed has gone to 3 sets 3 times, and was so close to going out last round but won her second set tie break 8-6 before winning the deciding set. Zheng has beaten Ivanovic and beat an erratic Vaidisova in 3 sets last round, but Serena is a different proposition. So back the Williams brothers, I mean sisters, to go through with ease, so the 7/5 about a pair of whitewashes is good for punt too - just like Fed and Rafa did yesterday.
1.40 Haydock Prelude e/w 8/1 (3rd +2.34 - with 2 furlongs to go, looked like he might challenge for the lead, but didn't quite get there, however stayed on well to claim the each way money)
This 7 year olds 4 wins have come in June, July and two in August, so he is now coming into his peak period. His 3 wins last year were over 12f so the trip will suit and he is due to go up a pound - back to his rating he won off last summer. The favourite Eventide could be anything having only had the one run on all-weather so 8/1 about Prelude looks good each way value to me in a 13 runner handicap.
8.30 Newbury Danseuse Volante e/w 5/1 (6th +1.34, flirted with the places on the run-in, but had spent his energy too early in the race)
Two good seconds for this horse this season when ridden by Eddie Ahern, either side of a 7th but on soft ground without Eddie piloting. Mr Ahern rides again tonight, and I expect this Danehill Dancer fillie to be up with the pace all the way.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
June Summary
An erratic tipping month so firstly apologies. And to add to that, it was a down month, so I won't beat about the bush....
June profit : -£5.88
Success rate : 30% (12/40)
Overall profit : £14.29
Overall success : 38% (106/276)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)