Golf, Cricket, Cycling and Racing

Back to proper cricket today and looks like we'll get some decent weather at Lords at last!

9.00 McDowell to win Scottish Open 40/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) (WON +22.59 - A well balanced four rounds with an excellent 3rd round in difficult conditions pushing hiim to the top of the leaderboard. I wouldnt touch the 33/1 for The Open though now)
Picking tournament winners outside of the majors is tough to do on the European Tour these days we so many players capabale and few stand out players - even Ernie isnt up there regularly now. If Phil Mickelson turns up to win he should go close, as he did last year, but his appearance fee may be enough to keep him happy and not push himself too much ahead of The Open. So I'd look for someone with a reason to push hard before the big one next week, but without the pressure of needing to qualify still. The main inspiration therefore has to be those on the cusp of Ryder Cup qualification who are currently in form, particularly if they have course form. Step forward Graeme McDowell. He was 11th here last year, 3rd last week at The London Club and 13th the week before in France, so his game is coming to the boil nicely. He currently occupies th 10th and final automatic spot in Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup side, so a decent performance here could help book his ticket for Louisville.

11.00 South Africa to beat England 13/8 (LOST +21.59 - Graeme Smith's decision to bowl is up there with Nasser in Brisbane and Ponting at Edgbaston. But there second innings has shown how they can still be a big threat in this series)
So this is the big test before the Ashes next summer, and will tell us how much further England have to go to try to repeat 2005. And with the sun shining over London this morning it could be that we get more play than feared earlier in the week. So the draw backpedals for me. Which means that there is only one winner, given how well visiting sides tend to play at Lords. South Africans have all played in English conditions so wont be as naive as the Kiwis, so we can measure the sides man for man. Yes the England bowlers are a decent attack, and will, on average, concede 300-350 in a test match first innings, but its England's inconsistent batting that will make the difference compared to South Africa's strong middle order and decent tail. You can see England all out for 250 much easier than the Bokke, and vice versa for 400+. I can see England having their days in this series and 3/1 the drawn series is interesting, but for game one, I'm siding with Graeme Smith's boys

11.20 Sylvain Chavanel to win Stage 6 of Tour de France e/w 28/1 (LOST +20.59 - when our man went off in a group of 3, it looked good, but the peloton were not letting him go and eventually reeled him in and spat him out the back)
There have been barely any climbs in the Tour so far, but today there are two Category 2 climbs in the last 50kms, which should prevent a sprint finish and see the polka dot jersey contenders to the fore. Having made an attack on day 2, he will be rested and ready for today's assault and will aim to get the climber's jersey back after giving it up last year when his Cofidis team withdrew after one of their riders tested positive.

4.55 Newmarket Northern Dare 9/4 (LOST +19.59 - got blocked when trying to move up a couple of times. I'm putting it down to jockey error - the difference between top and average jock's is not getting boxed in at key moments)
Another handicap good thing, due to go up 5lbs. But these are not always the shoe-ins they are touted as pre-race. However, Northern Dare has been steadily improving all season and his trainer has a cracking record in this race. I was first drawn to his 3 wins in a row from 2001 to 2003, but its better than just that. 14 runners in 8 years have yielded 3 winners, 4 seconds, a thrid, and three fourths - which included the second and third in 2006 and the 1-2 in 2002. So I'm confident this good thing will have every chance.