Yes I'm back finally! After a golfing tour of Kentucky and Kerry there's one last blast to end the month, and its largely back to the big round ball.
7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.
7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.
7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.
7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Ryder Cup Day One Preview
So its finally here. The pairings are out, the course is cut (to Zinger's prescription) and we're all set.
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
Thursday, September 18, 2008
The Greatest
Currently half time here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium and its 14-7 to Louisville over Kentucky State. And feck me its a classic snapshot of America - a massive amount of stuff, fluff and rubbish around what should be the main event. A band of about 200 - who presumably are the ones who aren't good enough to play sport, the ones who never g picked? About 4 different teams of cheerleaders and 50 year old men saying "Aint they cute!". A crowd that gets massively over-excited about a bloke throwing a ball 10 yards and his mate catching it - isn't that his job?
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
Ryder Cupdate (Practice Day Two)
We're just over 24 hours from the Opening Ceremony, but tonight sees the first official function as Louisville welcomes the teams at the Muhammed Ali Center. I've been down there myself and its an impressive combination of museum, gallery and education centre about the career, life, influences and influenced of The Greatest, Louisville's most famous son. And with what I'm hearing Kenny Perry and Paul Azinger say, Louisville's second most famous son is expected to be in the first foursome to tee off on Friday morning.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Ryder Cupdate (Practice Day 2)
e're just over 24 hours from the Opening Ceremony, but tonight sees the first official function as Louisville welcomes the teams at the Muhammed Ali Center. I've been down there myself and its an impressive combination of museum, gallery and education centre about the career, life, influences and influenced of The Greatest, Louisville's most famous son. And with what I'm hearing Kenny Perry and Paul Azinger say, Louisville's second most famous son is expected to be in the first foursome to tee off on Friday morning.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a cleare picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwoos has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enought to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way. (LOST -7.75 - Casey didn't play well and only played three times, registering just one point, although this left him joint 6th)
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US. (LOST -8.75 - Azinger threw us all a dummy then sent out his hotshots Kim and Mickelson and it was Lefty who hit first)
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a cleare picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwoos has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enought to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way. (LOST -7.75 - Casey didn't play well and only played three times, registering just one point, although this left him joint 6th)
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US. (LOST -8.75 - Azinger threw us all a dummy then sent out his hotshots Kim and Mickelson and it was Lefty who hit first)
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Ryder Cupdate - Practice Day One
Europe to win Ryder Cup 21/20 (LOST/WON -6.75 - I really thought we could get 5 out of the last 6 points on offer, but hats off to the US - they played better golf. The Lost/Won is the loss of this bet but the winning 5/4 tip of US back in January)
Having seen both teams on the front nine today, I'm taking Paddy Power's 21/20 odds against. Firstly the Europeans are behaving more as a team - all 12 plus Faldo and Olazabal met on the first tee at eight for a little pep talk. Then off for the photo call and lots of joking around from Poulter, Sergio and Westwood. Then finally some golf.
The Yanks seemed to want to keep hitting the big dogs, whereas the Europeans were striking it well off the tee but seemed to spend more time on approaches, bunker shots, chips from the rough and putts to all areas of the greens. Their practice seemed more focussed, and looked to be executed much better.
The Europeans played in 3s - and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw 2 from each 3. That would be Garcia and Westwood, Poulter and Casey, Harrington and McDowell/Karlsson, Rose and Jiminez. Hanson and Karlsson were hitting long balls and both hit the green in one at 4th, and Westwood played the shot of the day into 7th green to leave himself an eagle putt on a very long par 5.
From the US fours, I think we may see Kentucky boys JB Holmes and Kenny Perry together, but Furyk walked on ahead of them and Boo Weekley and on several tees hit his drive while they were still signing autographs. Campbell, Cink, Stricker and Curtis was the middle four - Cink and Campbell seemed happy enough, but Stricker didn't seem too happy with his game. In the last match we might see Lefty (the only player to not sign a single autograph today) and Justin Leonard. Hunter Mahan seemed to be enjoying himself despite his comments a few weeks back, but Anthony Kim didn't come out for the afternoon 9 - preferring to spend time on the putting green.
So yes its a change of opinion, but all the signs are good for another sea of blue on the scoreboard, and with an odds against price available for the first time in months, I'm going for Paddy Power's 21/20 on Europe.
Having seen both teams on the front nine today, I'm taking Paddy Power's 21/20 odds against. Firstly the Europeans are behaving more as a team - all 12 plus Faldo and Olazabal met on the first tee at eight for a little pep talk. Then off for the photo call and lots of joking around from Poulter, Sergio and Westwood. Then finally some golf.
The Yanks seemed to want to keep hitting the big dogs, whereas the Europeans were striking it well off the tee but seemed to spend more time on approaches, bunker shots, chips from the rough and putts to all areas of the greens. Their practice seemed more focussed, and looked to be executed much better.
The Europeans played in 3s - and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw 2 from each 3. That would be Garcia and Westwood, Poulter and Casey, Harrington and McDowell/Karlsson, Rose and Jiminez. Hanson and Karlsson were hitting long balls and both hit the green in one at 4th, and Westwood played the shot of the day into 7th green to leave himself an eagle putt on a very long par 5.
From the US fours, I think we may see Kentucky boys JB Holmes and Kenny Perry together, but Furyk walked on ahead of them and Boo Weekley and on several tees hit his drive while they were still signing autographs. Campbell, Cink, Stricker and Curtis was the middle four - Cink and Campbell seemed happy enough, but Stricker didn't seem too happy with his game. In the last match we might see Lefty (the only player to not sign a single autograph today) and Justin Leonard. Hunter Mahan seemed to be enjoying himself despite his comments a few weeks back, but Anthony Kim didn't come out for the afternoon 9 - preferring to spend time on the putting green.
So yes its a change of opinion, but all the signs are good for another sea of blue on the scoreboard, and with an odds against price available for the first time in months, I'm going for Paddy Power's 21/20 on Europe.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Football
Greetings from the US Immigration queue at Dallas, Texas. I saw Captain Faldo and his team check in this morning and at 8am tomorrow I'm hoping to be there to see them hit their first practice drives at Valhalla. Ryder Cup tips to follow, but just football today.
7.45 Bristol C v Birmingham <2.5gls 6/5 (LOST -6.00 - Lee Trundle's late consolation for City made it 2-1)
Bristol City were the least interesting team in the Championship last season - topping the division for some time and missing out in the playoffs, but scoring less goals than relegated Leicester! Birmingham have been efficient rather than outstanding so far, so expect a quiet affair on the goals front at Ashton Gate.
7.45 Burnley draw with Blackpool 5/2 (LOST -7.00 - 2-0 to Burnley with 2 goals in last half hour)
Blackpool were the away draw specialists last season and have continued in the same vein this season. There is little to choose between the two sides anyway, so I expect the draw run to continue.
7.45 Bristol C v Birmingham <2.5gls 6/5 (LOST -6.00 - Lee Trundle's late consolation for City made it 2-1)
Bristol City were the least interesting team in the Championship last season - topping the division for some time and missing out in the playoffs, but scoring less goals than relegated Leicester! Birmingham have been efficient rather than outstanding so far, so expect a quiet affair on the goals front at Ashton Gate.
7.45 Burnley draw with Blackpool 5/2 (LOST -7.00 - 2-0 to Burnley with 2 goals in last half hour)
Blackpool were the away draw specialists last season and have continued in the same vein this season. There is little to choose between the two sides anyway, so I expect the draw run to continue.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Rugby, Football and Racing
Just back from a quick tour of Scandinavia where they are less bullish on their international teams than we are here. The Danes are just happy they got more medals at the Olympics than the Swedes! Not too much other than football in the papers today but there are a couple of ideas out there...
7.05 Lanelli HT-FT bt Dragons 3/4 (LOST -2.00 - Llanelli won the game but had to come from behind at half-time unfortunately)
I fancy the Welsh challenge to be strong in the Magners League this year and the two forerunners for me will be Cardiff and Llanelli. Llanelli signalled their intent at the weekend with a 16-9 victory at Ulster, while the Dragons lost 12-6 at home to Glasgow. Neither game was one for the purists, but I see both teams faring the same tonight, especially with the Scarlets at home, and they will want to stamp their authority early. So ignore the 4/9 to win the game and pick up a bit more wiht the 3/4 on them to win both at half-time and full-time.
7.15 Sweden v Hungary No Goalscorer 7/1 (LOST -3.00 - final score 2-1 to Sweden. A dull game until Sweden took the lead in the second half)
7.45 Albania, Portugal and Spain Treble 5/4 (LOST -4.00 - easy wins for Albania 3-0 and Spain 4-0, and Portugal were 1-0 up after 80 mins and 2-1 up after 85, but somehow conspired to lose 3-2!)
My Swedish friends tell me they were very impressed with Albania on Saturday when they had the better of a 0-0 with the Swedes, while Malta were taken apart 4-0 by Portugal. My other Scandinavian friends in Copenhagen say their national side is really struggling these days and saw no reason for optimism in a dull 0-0 with Hungary on Saturday. Given Sweden and Denmark drew 0-0 in European Championship qualifying this time last year and the Swedes have only scored 6 goals in their last 10 games, I can see a Hungary side who have scored 1 goal away from home in their last 5 games, getting another point in a no-scoring affair in Stockholm and 7/1 no goalscorer seems good value.
In the same group Albania's performance should be enough to overcome the group's whipping boys Malta, and Portugal should have plenty to beat Denmark in Lisbon, even without Christiano Ronaldo. Just to make a 5/4 price I've thrown in European Champions Spain to beat Armenia.
9.20 Kempton Dancing Dik e/w 11/2 (4th -5.00 - A blanket finish and our selection was only a length behind the leader but unfortunately 4th and just out the places)
Amanda Perrett's gelding came second here on his only previous run on the all-weather, and is running off a rating 4lbs lower today. Last time out on turf he was beaten 2lengths, being headed in the final furlong so the drop back to 11f from 12f may be the difference tonight, but he should be on the premises whatever happens.
7.05 Lanelli HT-FT bt Dragons 3/4 (LOST -2.00 - Llanelli won the game but had to come from behind at half-time unfortunately)
I fancy the Welsh challenge to be strong in the Magners League this year and the two forerunners for me will be Cardiff and Llanelli. Llanelli signalled their intent at the weekend with a 16-9 victory at Ulster, while the Dragons lost 12-6 at home to Glasgow. Neither game was one for the purists, but I see both teams faring the same tonight, especially with the Scarlets at home, and they will want to stamp their authority early. So ignore the 4/9 to win the game and pick up a bit more wiht the 3/4 on them to win both at half-time and full-time.
7.15 Sweden v Hungary No Goalscorer 7/1 (LOST -3.00 - final score 2-1 to Sweden. A dull game until Sweden took the lead in the second half)
7.45 Albania, Portugal and Spain Treble 5/4 (LOST -4.00 - easy wins for Albania 3-0 and Spain 4-0, and Portugal were 1-0 up after 80 mins and 2-1 up after 85, but somehow conspired to lose 3-2!)
My Swedish friends tell me they were very impressed with Albania on Saturday when they had the better of a 0-0 with the Swedes, while Malta were taken apart 4-0 by Portugal. My other Scandinavian friends in Copenhagen say their national side is really struggling these days and saw no reason for optimism in a dull 0-0 with Hungary on Saturday. Given Sweden and Denmark drew 0-0 in European Championship qualifying this time last year and the Swedes have only scored 6 goals in their last 10 games, I can see a Hungary side who have scored 1 goal away from home in their last 5 games, getting another point in a no-scoring affair in Stockholm and 7/1 no goalscorer seems good value.
In the same group Albania's performance should be enough to overcome the group's whipping boys Malta, and Portugal should have plenty to beat Denmark in Lisbon, even without Christiano Ronaldo. Just to make a 5/4 price I've thrown in European Champions Spain to beat Armenia.
9.20 Kempton Dancing Dik e/w 11/2 (4th -5.00 - A blanket finish and our selection was only a length behind the leader but unfortunately 4th and just out the places)
Amanda Perrett's gelding came second here on his only previous run on the all-weather, and is running off a rating 4lbs lower today. Last time out on turf he was beaten 2lengths, being headed in the final furlong so the drop back to 11f from 12f may be the difference tonight, but he should be on the premises whatever happens.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Racing, Tennis, Rugby League, Cricket
Firstly apologies for the lack of tips last month and so far this month. This month could be a bit sketchy with some business trips and the golf, but I'll do my best for you. And to start to make up for it there's a veritable feast today.
2.30 Catterick Placepot - MEETING ABANDONED
I'm never normally one for the multiples etc, but I fancy 3 at least so why not have some fun. And remember the law - the race after you get knocked out you will definitely have had the winner!
In the first Majuba has been progressing solidly and with all bar Mark Wallace's second string having shown their hand its one of the easier maidens to pick from.
Orchestrion is one of my fancied horses. She didnt like the drop back to 6f and the all-weather surface last time out, but back to 7f on turf should be in the picture again.
The 3.30 is the tough one, and I liked White Moss until it was withdrawn, so I'm going for Sporting Gesture. At 11, this will be his 110th race, but is still going strong with a good 2nd last time out and has won 4 of his 13 career wins in September.
Northern Bolt is the fourth leg in what looks a match bet between the two Nicholls horses. It will be close but I think Bolt's second place last time was very similar to Ice Planet's third, but the pound difference in weights could see him edge it this time.
Bertie Vista has progressed in all three of his runs at 7f and in a very poor maiden he should be the one to lose that tag.
And the final one I'm going for is Let It Be, looking for her fifth win in a row. She also has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs at course and distance. She will go up 1lb next week but still looked to have a bit in hand last week, so with last time's claimer taking 7lbs off again, she should be on the premises.
6.30 Jankovic to beat Dementieva 6/4 (WON +1.00 - straight sets victory)
Dementieva was the in-form player coming into this US Open, and hasn't dropped a set yet, but I think she is over-priced in this semi-final - her first real test so far. Previous meetings are definitely in Jelena's favour and she's still ranked 2 in the world, so hardly a spent force! Elena won on clay in Berlin, but Jankovic has won the previous two hard court meetings (2008 and 2006) in straight sets, and won 7 of the last 9 sets on all surfaces, which makes 6/4 very appealing)
8.00 Saints -14 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST +0.00 - a very strong start by Wigan saw Saints just claw back from a draw in tricky conditions)
There are claims being made that this could be the best Saints side of all time and I wouldnt argue against that. Their average winning margin this season is over 18 points and they look stronger every game they add to their unbeaten record. And if 18 is their average margin, Wigan are an average side. Won 13, lost 11, points difference of -50, and that negative margin is because they havent handled the top sides, as witnessed by their 52-16 mauling by Leeds last time out. Yes they'll be keen to put that right against their big rivals, but so far this season they have been beaten 57-16, 46-12, and the last meeting of last season was 46-10. If anything Saints have got better and Wigan worse, so that 14 point handicap should easily get covered.
Djokovic to win US Open 7/2 (LOST -1.00 - at 1-1 I thought he would storm back but Federer found his old form and stormed through)
The men's semi-finals arent til tomorrow, but I think Novak Djokovic's value will be gone after that. He is just odds against to beat Federer tomorrow but the Swiss master was less than convincing in his 3-0 victory over Giles Muller last night. A better player than 130th ranked Muller would have clinched the first and third set tie-breaks when the opportunities were given and Djokovic's pace and deep hitting ability will undo Federer if he continues to move sluggishly for him and fail to hit his first serve with his usual Swiss clock like regularity. That will then set up a final with Nadal (I cant see Murray beating him), against whom his record stands up. Rafa beat him in Beijing, but I'm not convinced it was 100% from either player that day, but even including that, Novak has won 4 of their last 6 meetings on hard courts, which have all been in the last two seasons, and all been done in straight sets! Djoko and Rafa to split the Slams two each.
2.30 Catterick Placepot - MEETING ABANDONED
I'm never normally one for the multiples etc, but I fancy 3 at least so why not have some fun. And remember the law - the race after you get knocked out you will definitely have had the winner!
In the first Majuba has been progressing solidly and with all bar Mark Wallace's second string having shown their hand its one of the easier maidens to pick from.
Orchestrion is one of my fancied horses. She didnt like the drop back to 6f and the all-weather surface last time out, but back to 7f on turf should be in the picture again.
The 3.30 is the tough one, and I liked White Moss until it was withdrawn, so I'm going for Sporting Gesture. At 11, this will be his 110th race, but is still going strong with a good 2nd last time out and has won 4 of his 13 career wins in September.
Northern Bolt is the fourth leg in what looks a match bet between the two Nicholls horses. It will be close but I think Bolt's second place last time was very similar to Ice Planet's third, but the pound difference in weights could see him edge it this time.
Bertie Vista has progressed in all three of his runs at 7f and in a very poor maiden he should be the one to lose that tag.
And the final one I'm going for is Let It Be, looking for her fifth win in a row. She also has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs at course and distance. She will go up 1lb next week but still looked to have a bit in hand last week, so with last time's claimer taking 7lbs off again, she should be on the premises.
6.30 Jankovic to beat Dementieva 6/4 (WON +1.00 - straight sets victory)
Dementieva was the in-form player coming into this US Open, and hasn't dropped a set yet, but I think she is over-priced in this semi-final - her first real test so far. Previous meetings are definitely in Jelena's favour and she's still ranked 2 in the world, so hardly a spent force! Elena won on clay in Berlin, but Jankovic has won the previous two hard court meetings (2008 and 2006) in straight sets, and won 7 of the last 9 sets on all surfaces, which makes 6/4 very appealing)
8.00 Saints -14 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST +0.00 - a very strong start by Wigan saw Saints just claw back from a draw in tricky conditions)
There are claims being made that this could be the best Saints side of all time and I wouldnt argue against that. Their average winning margin this season is over 18 points and they look stronger every game they add to their unbeaten record. And if 18 is their average margin, Wigan are an average side. Won 13, lost 11, points difference of -50, and that negative margin is because they havent handled the top sides, as witnessed by their 52-16 mauling by Leeds last time out. Yes they'll be keen to put that right against their big rivals, but so far this season they have been beaten 57-16, 46-12, and the last meeting of last season was 46-10. If anything Saints have got better and Wigan worse, so that 14 point handicap should easily get covered.
Djokovic to win US Open 7/2 (LOST -1.00 - at 1-1 I thought he would storm back but Federer found his old form and stormed through)
The men's semi-finals arent til tomorrow, but I think Novak Djokovic's value will be gone after that. He is just odds against to beat Federer tomorrow but the Swiss master was less than convincing in his 3-0 victory over Giles Muller last night. A better player than 130th ranked Muller would have clinched the first and third set tie-breaks when the opportunities were given and Djokovic's pace and deep hitting ability will undo Federer if he continues to move sluggishly for him and fail to hit his first serve with his usual Swiss clock like regularity. That will then set up a final with Nadal (I cant see Murray beating him), against whom his record stands up. Rafa beat him in Beijing, but I'm not convinced it was 100% from either player that day, but even including that, Novak has won 4 of their last 6 meetings on hard courts, which have all been in the last two seasons, and all been done in straight sets! Djoko and Rafa to split the Slams two each.
August Update
A lack of tips, and a down month. September's tips will be sporadic, but keep tuning in as there will be a daily update from Valhalla in Ryder Cup week. Still in profit since the start...
July loss : £7.98
Success rate : 32% (7/22)
Overall profit : £22.89
Overall success : 37% (120/323)
July loss : £7.98
Success rate : 32% (7/22)
Overall profit : £22.89
Overall success : 37% (120/323)
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Snooker, Racing and Football
After a refreshing break in Devon for a few days I'm back to get us in the black for August!
1.00 Mark Williams to beat Mark Allen 10/11 (LOST 5-3 -5.98 - At 4-0 down it didnt look good, but at 4-3 Lazarus was in the house! Alas a missed black and the door was closed)
Mark Williams played more like Frank Williams at various points last season and relinquished his spot in the top 16, meaning he has to play the first round of many of the tournaments this season. But that extra match seems to have sharpened him up this week. To the point that he dispatched world number three Shaun Murphy 5-2 in the second round. Meanwhile his opponent today struggled past Dominic Dale 5-4. Williams' form last season is why the bookies have it as an even game, but he looks to be showing some of his old form and genuine talent, and that should be good enough to win today.
2.20 Lingfield Gracechurch 3/1 (2nd -6.98 - Unfortunately our man was caught a little naive and too far off the pace and couldnt get the horse up to catch the winner soon enough)
I wouldn't normally get involved in an Apprentice Handicap for £2000, but there is one apprentice out there who is currently ahead of the rest. Louis-Philippe Beuzelin has ridden 3 winners from his 26 runs so far, as well as another 9 horses he has steered home for place money. And of those that havent made the winners enclosure, he has often registered a finishing position better than the horse ranked in the betting ring - an important statistic when looking at apprentice jockeys, given they dont always get the best rides. Better judges than myself have seen fit to rate him - he has already ridden for Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor amongst others - and it was Stoute who brought him over after seeinghim ride winners in the Caribbean. Look for another cool ride to make it 4 from 27.
6 Omonia Nicosia bt AEK Athens 11/4 (2-2 -7.98 - We were pretty unlucky there with taking the lead twice and AEK equalising late on just after Nicosia had hit the post!)
On first glance you wouldnt hesitate to say AEK Athens will win this match. The Greeks have a long history of European football and successfully negotiated the group stages of last year's UEFA Cup. But Greek club football isn't as strong as it is. You may also at first glance dismiss Cypriot football, but they have come on leaps and bounds in the last few years - particularly at home. In the European Championships qualifying the national side beat Ireland, Wales, Armenia and San Marino at home, and Germany to a 1-1 draw, and many of the Nicosia players make up the Cypriot national side. Nicosia won both legs of their previous round tie, not conceding at home, and then went and surprised a lot of people with a 1-0 victory in Athens. Bookies are still not prepared to dismiss the Greek's hostoric supremacy over Cyprus in footballing terms, so we should take advantage at 11/4 for the home side.
1.00 Mark Williams to beat Mark Allen 10/11 (LOST 5-3 -5.98 - At 4-0 down it didnt look good, but at 4-3 Lazarus was in the house! Alas a missed black and the door was closed)
Mark Williams played more like Frank Williams at various points last season and relinquished his spot in the top 16, meaning he has to play the first round of many of the tournaments this season. But that extra match seems to have sharpened him up this week. To the point that he dispatched world number three Shaun Murphy 5-2 in the second round. Meanwhile his opponent today struggled past Dominic Dale 5-4. Williams' form last season is why the bookies have it as an even game, but he looks to be showing some of his old form and genuine talent, and that should be good enough to win today.
2.20 Lingfield Gracechurch 3/1 (2nd -6.98 - Unfortunately our man was caught a little naive and too far off the pace and couldnt get the horse up to catch the winner soon enough)
I wouldn't normally get involved in an Apprentice Handicap for £2000, but there is one apprentice out there who is currently ahead of the rest. Louis-Philippe Beuzelin has ridden 3 winners from his 26 runs so far, as well as another 9 horses he has steered home for place money. And of those that havent made the winners enclosure, he has often registered a finishing position better than the horse ranked in the betting ring - an important statistic when looking at apprentice jockeys, given they dont always get the best rides. Better judges than myself have seen fit to rate him - he has already ridden for Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor amongst others - and it was Stoute who brought him over after seeinghim ride winners in the Caribbean. Look for another cool ride to make it 4 from 27.
6 Omonia Nicosia bt AEK Athens 11/4 (2-2 -7.98 - We were pretty unlucky there with taking the lead twice and AEK equalising late on just after Nicosia had hit the post!)
On first glance you wouldnt hesitate to say AEK Athens will win this match. The Greeks have a long history of European football and successfully negotiated the group stages of last year's UEFA Cup. But Greek club football isn't as strong as it is. You may also at first glance dismiss Cypriot football, but they have come on leaps and bounds in the last few years - particularly at home. In the European Championships qualifying the national side beat Ireland, Wales, Armenia and San Marino at home, and Germany to a 1-1 draw, and many of the Nicosia players make up the Cypriot national side. Nicosia won both legs of their previous round tie, not conceding at home, and then went and surprised a lot of people with a 1-0 victory in Athens. Bookies are still not prepared to dismiss the Greek's hostoric supremacy over Cyprus in footballing terms, so we should take advantage at 11/4 for the home side.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Football
What an appalling abject performance last night! Different manager, same lack of effort, creativity, and the same useless lumps like Heskey, Beckham and Lampard keep getting picked. Change the f*cking record!
7.45 Oxford bt Wrexham 12/5 (LOST 2-0 -4.98) -
Two promotion hopefuls whose form has gone different ways in the first 3 games. Wrexham fans must have thought this non-league lark would be easy when they thrashed Stevenage 5-0 on the opening day, but subsequent 1-0 defeat and 1-1 draw at Rushden have added a dose of reality. Oxford fans meanwhile would have been worried after not scoring in their first two games, but 6 goals by 5 different players against Eastbourne will have them hoping it was just early season peculiarities. And last season they didn't do draws away from home - 10 wins and 10 defeats. So you're almost betting 'draw no bet'! While Wrexham at home should be favourites, Oxford do have some momentum now and 12/5 looks a touch generous.
7.45 Oxford bt Wrexham 12/5 (LOST 2-0 -4.98) -
Two promotion hopefuls whose form has gone different ways in the first 3 games. Wrexham fans must have thought this non-league lark would be easy when they thrashed Stevenage 5-0 on the opening day, but subsequent 1-0 defeat and 1-1 draw at Rushden have added a dose of reality. Oxford fans meanwhile would have been worried after not scoring in their first two games, but 6 goals by 5 different players against Eastbourne will have them hoping it was just early season peculiarities. And last season they didn't do draws away from home - 10 wins and 10 defeats. So you're almost betting 'draw no bet'! While Wrexham at home should be favourites, Oxford do have some momentum now and 12/5 looks a touch generous.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Football
Apologies for no tips yesterday, especially I would have advised you to join me in tipping Christine Ohourougu, and as we were tripped up by Lolo Jones' stumble. But with Usain easing his way to 200m victory and the crazy situation of no racing in Britain this afternoon - it is the middle of bloody August!!!!! - that only leaves me with the football tonight.
8.00 England win to nil 6/4 (LOST -3.98 - What an appalling performance. No better than under MacLaren)
Fabio Capello's England havent exactly been thrilling to watch, but they have stopped leaking goals. The last three games have been 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and while I dont expect that series to continue, I do expect captaincy rivals Terry and Ferdinand to keep the door firmly closed to Milan Baros. Expect England to win, as they do against most middling nations at Wembley, and so 1-0 or 2-0 have to be the scores to watch. You could back them each, but just in case the Czechs give up in the second half I'll go with a win to nil with Skybet, Paddy, or Ladbrokes.
8.00 England win to nil 6/4 (LOST -3.98 - What an appalling performance. No better than under MacLaren)
Fabio Capello's England havent exactly been thrilling to watch, but they have stopped leaking goals. The last three games have been 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and while I dont expect that series to continue, I do expect captaincy rivals Terry and Ferdinand to keep the door firmly closed to Milan Baros. Expect England to win, as they do against most middling nations at Wembley, and so 1-0 or 2-0 have to be the scores to watch. You could back them each, but just in case the Czechs give up in the second half I'll go with a win to nil with Skybet, Paddy, or Ladbrokes.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Athletics, Cricket and Football
What a weekend! Makes you proud to be British. Now just to keep those convicts at bay for 3rd place in the medals table. But today is all about athletics, with a cricket bet which is likely to be rained off.
12.40 Jones to win 100m Hurdles 9/4 (7th -1.15 - all looked good til a late stumble cost her)
Lolo Jones ran the fastest time of the year just last month in qualifying for the Olympics. Bridgitte Foster-Hylton has matched that but not this year. Lolo has the semi at lunchtime today before the final tomorrow afternoon, but get on now for the value.
1.10 Saladino to win Long Jump 8/11 (WON -0.42 - too easy for Irving. Anytime anyone got close, he went further)
Irving Saladino this year jumped further than anyone has for 14 years, which in athletics is a long time! There are whispers Mike Powell's 8.95m 17 year old world record could be in danger in this final, but the result is barely in doubt as the Panamanian has jumped a whole foot further than anyone else this year. In qualifying he has two fouls so just made a safe 8.01m, but expect another couple of feet on that in the final.
1.45 Kent bt Derbyshire 4/9 (WON +0.02 - Derbyshire 60
Kent are unbeaten in their three Pro40 games this season, and were on top last Monday when the farce with the wind and the floodlights abandoned the game with Leicestershire. Derbyshire however, have only won one game. Some may doubt Kent having lost on Saturday but Rob Key's attitude will makes sure his charges are back fighting today, and I expect he and Joe Denly to make Derbyshire's bowlers toil - they went through a 4 day game last week versus Kent's easy build up to the final.
2.10 Kemboi to win 3000m Steeplechase 7/2 (LOST -1.02 - took the lead going into last lap but couldnt stay the pace)
Ezekiel Kemboi was 4th in his heat to qualify for the final in the fastest heat - his time was the 4th fastest of all three heats. But he has plenty in reserve - the three who just edged ahead of him all ran personal or season best times. He is second favourite to Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong but Kemboi is defending champion and has a PB 3 seconds quicker than the favourite. Expect him to ris to the occasion again today.
3 Clement win 400m Hurdles 5/4 (2nd -1.98 - Another who looked good coming into the straight but Angelo found another reserve)
Kerron Clement is the fastest man over this event since Kevin Young set his world record in Barcelona 16 years ago. This year he hasnt quite reached that tims, but he is one of only two men in the final go under 48 seconds. He won the world championships last year and ahs won all four Golden League, Super Grand Prix and Grand Prix races he has run this year. Expect this to cap things off.
7.45 Gash 1st goalscorer 9/1 (1/2 1-2-3) (LOST -2.98 - we got the result right, but not the bet unfortunately)
Ebbsfleet only have one point from 2 games and Torquay have four, hence why the Gulls are odds on tonight, but don't discount the visitors. Their defeat on Tuesday night came at a Rushden side who are looking to get back into the league, and the opening day draw was at relegated Mansfield, so tow of the best side's in the division. Similarly Torquay's 2-1 home victory were against early strugglers Woking who have lost all three so far, and Histon who just escaped relegation last season. The prices on the game have meant that first goalscorer odds are also skewed, and Ebbsfleet's favourite to score, Michael Gash, is available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes. He scored the first goal at Mansfield last week continuing his record of 27 in 29 goals last season in the Conference South for Cambridge. With Ladbrokes offering 1/2 odds for first three scorers he seems excellent value.
12.40 Jones to win 100m Hurdles 9/4 (7th -1.15 - all looked good til a late stumble cost her)
Lolo Jones ran the fastest time of the year just last month in qualifying for the Olympics. Bridgitte Foster-Hylton has matched that but not this year. Lolo has the semi at lunchtime today before the final tomorrow afternoon, but get on now for the value.
1.10 Saladino to win Long Jump 8/11 (WON -0.42 - too easy for Irving. Anytime anyone got close, he went further)
Irving Saladino this year jumped further than anyone has for 14 years, which in athletics is a long time! There are whispers Mike Powell's 8.95m 17 year old world record could be in danger in this final, but the result is barely in doubt as the Panamanian has jumped a whole foot further than anyone else this year. In qualifying he has two fouls so just made a safe 8.01m, but expect another couple of feet on that in the final.
1.45 Kent bt Derbyshire 4/9 (WON +0.02 - Derbyshire 60
Kent are unbeaten in their three Pro40 games this season, and were on top last Monday when the farce with the wind and the floodlights abandoned the game with Leicestershire. Derbyshire however, have only won one game. Some may doubt Kent having lost on Saturday but Rob Key's attitude will makes sure his charges are back fighting today, and I expect he and Joe Denly to make Derbyshire's bowlers toil - they went through a 4 day game last week versus Kent's easy build up to the final.
2.10 Kemboi to win 3000m Steeplechase 7/2 (LOST -1.02 - took the lead going into last lap but couldnt stay the pace)
Ezekiel Kemboi was 4th in his heat to qualify for the final in the fastest heat - his time was the 4th fastest of all three heats. But he has plenty in reserve - the three who just edged ahead of him all ran personal or season best times. He is second favourite to Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong but Kemboi is defending champion and has a PB 3 seconds quicker than the favourite. Expect him to ris to the occasion again today.
3 Clement win 400m Hurdles 5/4 (2nd -1.98 - Another who looked good coming into the straight but Angelo found another reserve)
Kerron Clement is the fastest man over this event since Kevin Young set his world record in Barcelona 16 years ago. This year he hasnt quite reached that tims, but he is one of only two men in the final go under 48 seconds. He won the world championships last year and ahs won all four Golden League, Super Grand Prix and Grand Prix races he has run this year. Expect this to cap things off.
7.45 Gash 1st goalscorer 9/1 (1/2 1-2-3) (LOST -2.98 - we got the result right, but not the bet unfortunately)
Ebbsfleet only have one point from 2 games and Torquay have four, hence why the Gulls are odds on tonight, but don't discount the visitors. Their defeat on Tuesday night came at a Rushden side who are looking to get back into the league, and the opening day draw was at relegated Mansfield, so tow of the best side's in the division. Similarly Torquay's 2-1 home victory were against early strugglers Woking who have lost all three so far, and Histon who just escaped relegation last season. The prices on the game have meant that first goalscorer odds are also skewed, and Ebbsfleet's favourite to score, Michael Gash, is available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes. He scored the first goal at Mansfield last week continuing his record of 27 in 29 goals last season in the Conference South for Cambridge. With Ladbrokes offering 1/2 odds for first three scorers he seems excellent value.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Racing and Cycling
Yesterday's tennis was held over and took some time to finish so apologies for today's late post.
7.45 Catterick Fire Up The Band 2/1 (5th -1.98 - stumbled out the stalls and then failed to get close at the business end)
This 9 year old was running at Royal Ascot two years ago and at Goodwood and the Derby meeting last year. He has now dropped to sellers and claimers this year and has performed best on softer ground, with 2 second places on GS and Soft, both by just half a length. 2/1 is not overly generous, but it wont take much to see off the rest of these.
9.50am Chris Hoy to win Keirin 5/6 (WON -1.15 - too easy for the machine on a bike. Knight him!)
Chris Hoy was awesome in the team sprint today, showing the power he has used so effectively to win 24 consecutive Keirin events, including a World Championship and one on this track. British cycling is in ridiculous health and there will be three more medals tomorrow - of which Hoy will be one.
GB to get 7 or more golds on Saturday 13/8 (WON -0.15 - Hills paid out as postponements still count if replayed within a week!)
Hills have provided a special market on Golden Saturday as it will be known. As mentioned above Hoy will win, Bradley Wiggins showed why he is so odds on to win the mens pursuit. And one of the two GB girls who qualified first and second in the womens pursuit will complete the cycling trio. Ben Ainslie and the Yngling girls are all set for gold in the sailing, as is Rebecca Adlington in her favoured event in the pool looking to double her personal tally steering with her nose. The coxless four look superior to any other boat on the water and there are also a handful of other boats in finals tomorrow. Kelly Southerton may still reach top spot in the heptathlon despite a poor high jump today too. So barring a disaster, admittedly which GB tend to specialise in, there should be seven plus renditions of God Save The Queen tomorrow in Beijing.
7.45 Catterick Fire Up The Band 2/1 (5th -1.98 - stumbled out the stalls and then failed to get close at the business end)
This 9 year old was running at Royal Ascot two years ago and at Goodwood and the Derby meeting last year. He has now dropped to sellers and claimers this year and has performed best on softer ground, with 2 second places on GS and Soft, both by just half a length. 2/1 is not overly generous, but it wont take much to see off the rest of these.
9.50am Chris Hoy to win Keirin 5/6 (WON -1.15 - too easy for the machine on a bike. Knight him!)
Chris Hoy was awesome in the team sprint today, showing the power he has used so effectively to win 24 consecutive Keirin events, including a World Championship and one on this track. British cycling is in ridiculous health and there will be three more medals tomorrow - of which Hoy will be one.
GB to get 7 or more golds on Saturday 13/8 (WON -0.15 - Hills paid out as postponements still count if replayed within a week!)
Hills have provided a special market on Golden Saturday as it will be known. As mentioned above Hoy will win, Bradley Wiggins showed why he is so odds on to win the mens pursuit. And one of the two GB girls who qualified first and second in the womens pursuit will complete the cycling trio. Ben Ainslie and the Yngling girls are all set for gold in the sailing, as is Rebecca Adlington in her favoured event in the pool looking to double her personal tally steering with her nose. The coxless four look superior to any other boat on the water and there are also a handful of other boats in finals tomorrow. Kelly Southerton may still reach top spot in the heptathlon despite a poor high jump today too. So barring a disaster, admittedly which GB tend to specialise in, there should be seven plus renditions of God Save The Queen tomorrow in Beijing.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Olympic Tennis Double
A quiet summer Thursday, so not much to choose from. But gearing up for the athletics starting tomorrow in Beijing, and finally seeing the end of that gormless swimmer. Greatest Olympian? Do me a favour. Its time they got rid of all those strokes in swimming - its like Ministry of Silly Walks! Just who can swim x metres fastest gets gold. End of.
10 Gonzalez & Safina Double 2/1 (WON -0.98 - Gonzo was taken to 11-9 in the third set and Safina was taken to 3 sets but both are now in the finals)
You may by now have guessed I think Fernando Gonzalez has a chance of winning a medal. He has looked strong so far and the key to his game has been his return of serve and break point conversion as a result. Both he and Paul-Henri Mathieu, his opponent today, win 2 out of 3 points on their own serve and Gonzo has saved 66% of break points to Mathieu's 63%. But Gonzo wins 1 in 4 return games, to the Frenchman's 1 in 5, converting 44% of break points versus 35%. I expect this trend to continue today.
The value in the double comes from Dinara Safina taking on number one ranked Jelena Jankovic. But Safina triumphed in their only meeting this year, and on grass last year Jankovic won, but only by 8-6 in a 3rd set tie break. Safina has looked much more assured in this competition, so well worth your money.
10 Gonzalez & Safina Double 2/1 (WON -0.98 - Gonzo was taken to 11-9 in the third set and Safina was taken to 3 sets but both are now in the finals)
You may by now have guessed I think Fernando Gonzalez has a chance of winning a medal. He has looked strong so far and the key to his game has been his return of serve and break point conversion as a result. Both he and Paul-Henri Mathieu, his opponent today, win 2 out of 3 points on their own serve and Gonzo has saved 66% of break points to Mathieu's 63%. But Gonzo wins 1 in 4 return games, to the Frenchman's 1 in 5, converting 44% of break points versus 35%. I expect this trend to continue today.
The value in the double comes from Dinara Safina taking on number one ranked Jelena Jankovic. But Safina triumphed in their only meeting this year, and on grass last year Jankovic won, but only by 8-6 in a 3rd set tie break. Safina has looked much more assured in this competition, so well worth your money.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Cricket, Racing and Football
Getting back towards flat again. A winner today and we're back in the black...
4.40 Michael Lumb to topscore for Hampshire 4/1 (LOST -1.98 - Typical. We get on and he scores 1 run!)
Michael Lumb is fast becoming another journeyman of county cricket, but of late he has switched well to the 40 over format. Hampshire were 31 runs short of Notts 231 last month, but Lumb still scored 63 of the 200, at just shy of a run a ball; and then scored 88 off 91 balls in the 236 target his side set Gloucs in 35 overs on Sunday. Both were easily the highest scores on the Hampshire card, and he is available at 4/1 in a number of places.
8.10 Sandown Riverscape 4/1 (4th -2.98 - looked like the winner 1.5f from home but weakened on the run-in. Maybe prefers the quicker ground)
This is pretty much a rematch from 2 weeks ago over course and distance when Riverscape finished a neck clear of Rock Peak, 2l clear of Silk Mill who carries 2lbs more but Kirsty claims 3lbs, and a further 4l clear of Tyrells Wood who carries 2lbs less. So I expect it to be between Riverscape and Rock Peak again and with Riverscape improving, while Rock Peak is still dropping to find his level, I'll take the favourite.
And one of my rare long-term bets. The Premiership is down to your own opinion. For me its Chelsea as they had a lot of hurdles to overcome last year, still finished only 2 points off United, and have improved their squad again this year. But the best bet for me is in the goalscoring department. Darren Bent was an excellent striker, which is why Spurs shelled out £18m for him. However, a poor start by the team in general and a lack of goals for Bent weighed on his confidence and his spot in the side last season. But that hasn't made him a bad striker, and to prove that in pre-season he has netted 13 goals. With Berbatov set to leave he will be Ramos' first choice and with David Bentley adding to the creation of chances, Bent could soon be justifying that price tag, without it weighing on his shoulders this season. There are question marks over all the other market leaders - will Torres play enough Premier League games? Ronaldo cant do it again can he? Which Adebayor will we see - early or late season? Tevez/Ronaldo/Berbatov will rotate too much? And with 1/4 odds for the first 4, 25/1 seems a cracking bet.
4.40 Michael Lumb to topscore for Hampshire 4/1 (LOST -1.98 - Typical. We get on and he scores 1 run!)
Michael Lumb is fast becoming another journeyman of county cricket, but of late he has switched well to the 40 over format. Hampshire were 31 runs short of Notts 231 last month, but Lumb still scored 63 of the 200, at just shy of a run a ball; and then scored 88 off 91 balls in the 236 target his side set Gloucs in 35 overs on Sunday. Both were easily the highest scores on the Hampshire card, and he is available at 4/1 in a number of places.
8.10 Sandown Riverscape 4/1 (4th -2.98 - looked like the winner 1.5f from home but weakened on the run-in. Maybe prefers the quicker ground)
This is pretty much a rematch from 2 weeks ago over course and distance when Riverscape finished a neck clear of Rock Peak, 2l clear of Silk Mill who carries 2lbs more but Kirsty claims 3lbs, and a further 4l clear of Tyrells Wood who carries 2lbs less. So I expect it to be between Riverscape and Rock Peak again and with Riverscape improving, while Rock Peak is still dropping to find his level, I'll take the favourite.
And one of my rare long-term bets. The Premiership is down to your own opinion. For me its Chelsea as they had a lot of hurdles to overcome last year, still finished only 2 points off United, and have improved their squad again this year. But the best bet for me is in the goalscoring department. Darren Bent was an excellent striker, which is why Spurs shelled out £18m for him. However, a poor start by the team in general and a lack of goals for Bent weighed on his confidence and his spot in the side last season. But that hasn't made him a bad striker, and to prove that in pre-season he has netted 13 goals. With Berbatov set to leave he will be Ramos' first choice and with David Bentley adding to the creation of chances, Bent could soon be justifying that price tag, without it weighing on his shoulders this season. There are question marks over all the other market leaders - will Torres play enough Premier League games? Ronaldo cant do it again can he? Which Adebayor will we see - early or late season? Tevez/Ronaldo/Berbatov will rotate too much? And with 1/4 odds for the first 4, 25/1 seems a cracking bet.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Olympic Special - Football, Tennis and Basketball
Not the best start to the month, but a few alternative bets today to get us on the move.
10 Brazil to beat Nigeria & Germany bt Korea Double 12/13 (WON -1.08 - Brazil cruised while Germany required a late winner)
A women's football double for you here. This is the last round of games in the group stages and so far Brazil drew with Germany and both sides then beat each other's opposition, so when playing the other team today, its fair to assume two more victories for the more established women's football nations - either of whom has a good shout for winning the gold medal.
11.30 Nalbandian & Gonzalez Double 11/10 (WON +0.02 - two straightforward straight sets victories)
Another Olympic double, in the tennis this time. Despite semmingly being around for a long time now, David Nalbandian is still only 26 and ranked 8th in the world. Four years ago Nicolas Massu was ranked 9th but has been on a downward spiral since and is now a lowly 125th, although the last time they played was at the height of Massu's form and Nalbandian won both the last two ties. So he can be expecting a straightforward victory.
Marian Cilic beat Fernando Gonzalez in 4 sets at the Australian Open back in January, but since then the form has gone in different directions. Gonzo has picked up two titles and won over 70% of his matches, while the Croat has just about won more than he has lost, so it seems it is that win in Melbourne and a recent Masters Series quarter final in Canada that is helping us get 8/11 about the Spaniard. So take advantage and double it up to get an odds against return.
3.15 Australia bt Argentina 9/2 (LOST -0.98 - 3-pointers again. This time Australia's fault only making 2 of 13 attempts. A reasonable 50% strike rate would have made it very close)
Both these basketball teams lost their opening games, so will be looking to make amends today. Australia were beaten by 15 points by Croatia but finished strongly, having been hammered by the Croats 75% success rate on 3-point attempts! A more normal success rate would have seen a much closer game. The Argies werent firing on all cyclinders either going down to Lithuania by a handful of points, so it may well come down to who can bounce back the better, as thre was only 4 points between these teams in a warm-up tournament a fortnight ago. So 9/2 looks a big price for a reversal.
10 Brazil to beat Nigeria & Germany bt Korea Double 12/13 (WON -1.08 - Brazil cruised while Germany required a late winner)
A women's football double for you here. This is the last round of games in the group stages and so far Brazil drew with Germany and both sides then beat each other's opposition, so when playing the other team today, its fair to assume two more victories for the more established women's football nations - either of whom has a good shout for winning the gold medal.
11.30 Nalbandian & Gonzalez Double 11/10 (WON +0.02 - two straightforward straight sets victories)
Another Olympic double, in the tennis this time. Despite semmingly being around for a long time now, David Nalbandian is still only 26 and ranked 8th in the world. Four years ago Nicolas Massu was ranked 9th but has been on a downward spiral since and is now a lowly 125th, although the last time they played was at the height of Massu's form and Nalbandian won both the last two ties. So he can be expecting a straightforward victory.
Marian Cilic beat Fernando Gonzalez in 4 sets at the Australian Open back in January, but since then the form has gone in different directions. Gonzo has picked up two titles and won over 70% of his matches, while the Croat has just about won more than he has lost, so it seems it is that win in Melbourne and a recent Masters Series quarter final in Canada that is helping us get 8/11 about the Spaniard. So take advantage and double it up to get an odds against return.
3.15 Australia bt Argentina 9/2 (LOST -0.98 - 3-pointers again. This time Australia's fault only making 2 of 13 attempts. A reasonable 50% strike rate would have made it very close)
Both these basketball teams lost their opening games, so will be looking to make amends today. Australia were beaten by 15 points by Croatia but finished strongly, having been hammered by the Croats 75% success rate on 3-point attempts! A more normal success rate would have seen a much closer game. The Argies werent firing on all cyclinders either going down to Lithuania by a handful of points, so it may well come down to who can bounce back the better, as thre was only 4 points between these teams in a warm-up tournament a fortnight ago. So 9/2 looks a big price for a reversal.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Football and Racing
7.45 Sandaza to score first goal e/w 11/2 (LOST -1.00 - The Accies flew out the blocks and were impressive, especially coming back from 1-0 down against the run of play)
Dundee United finished fifth last season despite falling away towards the end as injuries, suspensions and rearranged matches took their toll. And Craig Levein has made some shrewd signings to enhance that squad. The one he'll be hoping can really come up trumps is the 23 year old, 6ft 2in Spanish centre forward Fran Sandaza, signed from Valencia where he scored 23 goals for their reserves. Hamilton havn't been in the top flight since 1989 and, I therefore think the bookies are offering fair odds on Dundee United, but a bet on Sandaza to net in that victory should reap better rewards. He has cored three goals in pre-season including the only goal in last week's final warm-up away at Plymouth. Corals are offering 11/2 for him to get the first goal again and offer each way terms of 1/3 odds on first five scorers.
8.20 Windsor Compton Charlie 4/1 (5th -2.00 - Went off 11/4 fav but couldn't go with the front two and ended up finishing alongside Mixing)
This gelding has been very consistent this season, with a win and two second places in his five runs, and each time looks better for the run. With the favourite now having pulled out and the topweight still carrying too much weight, Pat Cosgrave could steer this home for his second victory. Kirsty is the danger on Mixing - a reasonable each way shout at 7s.
Dundee United finished fifth last season despite falling away towards the end as injuries, suspensions and rearranged matches took their toll. And Craig Levein has made some shrewd signings to enhance that squad. The one he'll be hoping can really come up trumps is the 23 year old, 6ft 2in Spanish centre forward Fran Sandaza, signed from Valencia where he scored 23 goals for their reserves. Hamilton havn't been in the top flight since 1989 and, I therefore think the bookies are offering fair odds on Dundee United, but a bet on Sandaza to net in that victory should reap better rewards. He has cored three goals in pre-season including the only goal in last week's final warm-up away at Plymouth. Corals are offering 11/2 for him to get the first goal again and offer each way terms of 1/3 odds on first five scorers.
8.20 Windsor Compton Charlie 4/1 (5th -2.00 - Went off 11/4 fav but couldn't go with the front two and ended up finishing alongside Mixing)
This gelding has been very consistent this season, with a win and two second places in his five runs, and each time looks better for the run. With the favourite now having pulled out and the topweight still carrying too much weight, Pat Cosgrave could steer this home for his second victory. Kirsty is the danger on Mixing - a reasonable each way shout at 7s.
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