I hope you had a good weekend and cheered home the Dark Blues on Saturday evening! Fairly sparse fare today but there are a couple of gems out there that could finish us in profit for the month!
5.10 Lingfield Ledgerwood e/w 10/1 (LOST -23.64 - looked to be in the frame with a furlong to go, but the winner finished like a train and Ledgerwood didn't finish as strongly as some)
A tricky little handicap this and there may be a few open to improvement but with 9 runners there is each way value around and for my money it looks like Ledgerwood. He won over course and distance in January and last time out at Wolverhampton probably ran a better race despite finishing second. Coming back to 8f from 9f may be enough to see him home but I certainly expect him to be in the frame.
7.45 Forest Green 0-1 Burton Albion 7/1 (LOST BOTH -25.64 - well Daryl Clare got Burton's goal, but Forest Green's two before that and one after ruined the bet!)
7.45 Daryl Clare to score first goal and 1-0 to Burton 25/1
Nigel Clough may very soon get his first crack at managing in League football. His Burton Albion side have maintained their playoff position all season and have taken 14 points from their last 6 games. And Clough has very much followed his father's plan of building from the back - if you don't concede you don't lose. In those last 6 games they have only scored 7 goals, but only conceding 1 has meant they picked up the points. Forest Green meanwhile haven't had the consitency required to make the top 5 and are now 10 points off with 7 to play - probably too many. They have lost 5 of their last 9 including to the two teams sandwiching Burton, Torquay and Cambridge. They failed to score against both those teams and have lost 4 of those 5 games by just the one goal (Cambridge beat them 2-0). So I expect Burton to continue their winning run, but a low scoring game has to be expected. So 1-0 it is. And the key to Burton's attackis Daryl Clare. He has socred 33 in 74 games for the Brewers, and has 4 in the last 9 - three of which were the first goal of the game. He's 6/1 to score the first goal, but given we have a deficit to make up for the month, why not go for the scorecast!
Monday, March 31, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
An up day at last! I'd forgotten what they felt like. Now lets hope we can continue this run over two day. But its key to keep a level head - unlike Fabio Capello. The Italian has claimed David Beckham can be England's Ronaldo. My first thought was the Brazilian in his 'Elvis phase', ie useless, but Fab actually means Christiano. Can anyone tell me any similarities? Answers on a postcard...
12.40 Bjorn to beat Hanson and Hansen 3-ball 7/4 (LOST -24.64 - Bjorn never really got going and ended up with a 76)
Yesterday these guys were birdying and bogeying all over the place but ended up with Bjorn and Hanson level par and Andes Hansen one shot ahead. As a result the bookies edge favourtism to Anders today, but Thomas Bjorn will still fancy his chances of being in the mix come Sunday after his 5th in Korea a fortnight ago, and I expect him to put a foot in the right direction today. Yesterday he was just leaving himself slightly too far from the pin with his approaches. A few yards closer and he could have been a couple of shots under and won this 3-ball yesterday. Expect another close one but back the Dane to bring home the bacon.
2.50 Wolverhampton Little Richard 3/1 (WON -21.64 - stayed in touch and took it up at the right point. Mr Reliability)
Reliable performer still at the age of 9 and never runs a bad race, particularly over course and distance, with two seconds in his last two runs each time just finding one too good. Nothing else jumps out in this field, so this could be his chance to add another win.
7.30 St Helens bt Leeds 6/4 (LOST 10-14 -22.64 - closer than the prices suggested and when Saints took the lead it looked like we might have been in, but Liam Burgess' late try snatched it for Leeds)
Yes St Helens have lost three games already this season, and yes Leeds have a points difference of 190 after 8 games, but these Saints boys are big game players, and they defend their Knowsley Road home with great vigour, especially as they will be still smarting from a late defeat at Huddersfield on Monday. That result could, as could others involving St Helens this season, have been vey different if referee Ian Smith had got right what looked an obvious decision right. When Eddy and Stevo agree he got it wrong, you know he did! Tonight Mr Smith is at Wigan, so expect Saints to come out and hit the World Club Champions hard. And that 6/4 will look too big a price come full time.
8.00 Wakefield+14 to beat Wigan Evns (WON -21.64 - low scoring game meant Wigan were never safe and the handicap was never in doubt. Final score 8-4 to Wigan.)
Wakefield wouldn't have wanted to be third from bottom at this stage of the season, but this game for me is all about the handicap. Noone really expects Trinity to go to the JJB and win (although Wakey have been Wigan's bogey team in my 20 years of following the Belle Vue outfit). Wakefield have covered the handicap 5 times out of 8 so far this season, and only Leeds (36pts) and Quins (16pts) have won by more than tonight's handicap, and that includes fixtures at St Helens and against Hull KR and Bradford - all sides as good or similar in ability to Wigan. In reverse, Wigan have only beaten Quins on the opening day by more than tonight's handicap. Just to add one final point - most bookies have Wakefield +12 at 10/11, VCBet have them +14 at Evns. Get with Victor...
8.50 Kempton Lorikeet 4/1 (LOST -22.64 - looked good coming into the straight and took up the lead, but couldnt hold onto it as others swept past)
This Gary Moore trained gelding has proved very reliable over the long trips on the all weather. In 6 runs he has won twice, been second three times and third once. He has only gone up 1lb for his 3 lengths second to an improver last time, so is worth another try today as he will be there or thereabouts.
12.40 Bjorn to beat Hanson and Hansen 3-ball 7/4 (LOST -24.64 - Bjorn never really got going and ended up with a 76)
Yesterday these guys were birdying and bogeying all over the place but ended up with Bjorn and Hanson level par and Andes Hansen one shot ahead. As a result the bookies edge favourtism to Anders today, but Thomas Bjorn will still fancy his chances of being in the mix come Sunday after his 5th in Korea a fortnight ago, and I expect him to put a foot in the right direction today. Yesterday he was just leaving himself slightly too far from the pin with his approaches. A few yards closer and he could have been a couple of shots under and won this 3-ball yesterday. Expect another close one but back the Dane to bring home the bacon.
2.50 Wolverhampton Little Richard 3/1 (WON -21.64 - stayed in touch and took it up at the right point. Mr Reliability)
Reliable performer still at the age of 9 and never runs a bad race, particularly over course and distance, with two seconds in his last two runs each time just finding one too good. Nothing else jumps out in this field, so this could be his chance to add another win.
7.30 St Helens bt Leeds 6/4 (LOST 10-14 -22.64 - closer than the prices suggested and when Saints took the lead it looked like we might have been in, but Liam Burgess' late try snatched it for Leeds)
Yes St Helens have lost three games already this season, and yes Leeds have a points difference of 190 after 8 games, but these Saints boys are big game players, and they defend their Knowsley Road home with great vigour, especially as they will be still smarting from a late defeat at Huddersfield on Monday. That result could, as could others involving St Helens this season, have been vey different if referee Ian Smith had got right what looked an obvious decision right. When Eddy and Stevo agree he got it wrong, you know he did! Tonight Mr Smith is at Wigan, so expect Saints to come out and hit the World Club Champions hard. And that 6/4 will look too big a price come full time.
8.00 Wakefield+14 to beat Wigan Evns (WON -21.64 - low scoring game meant Wigan were never safe and the handicap was never in doubt. Final score 8-4 to Wigan.)
Wakefield wouldn't have wanted to be third from bottom at this stage of the season, but this game for me is all about the handicap. Noone really expects Trinity to go to the JJB and win (although Wakey have been Wigan's bogey team in my 20 years of following the Belle Vue outfit). Wakefield have covered the handicap 5 times out of 8 so far this season, and only Leeds (36pts) and Quins (16pts) have won by more than tonight's handicap, and that includes fixtures at St Helens and against Hull KR and Bradford - all sides as good or similar in ability to Wigan. In reverse, Wigan have only beaten Quins on the opening day by more than tonight's handicap. Just to add one final point - most bookies have Wakefield +12 at 10/11, VCBet have them +14 at Evns. Get with Victor...
8.50 Kempton Lorikeet 4/1 (LOST -22.64 - looked good coming into the straight and took up the lead, but couldnt hold onto it as others swept past)
This Gary Moore trained gelding has proved very reliable over the long trips on the all weather. In 6 runs he has won twice, been second three times and third once. He has only gone up 1lb for his 3 lengths second to an improver last time, so is worth another try today as he will be there or thereabouts.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Racing, Golf and Football
Here's hoping its the end of an era. Goldenballs should hang up his boots now and go and get Scientological with Tom and Katie and let the rest of us concentrate on proper football. And darts, and horse racing, and naked French president's wives. I bet Paul Jewell fancies making a video with her! Anyway I hope you found a few pennies to sponsor the marathon runners even if yesterday's tips didn't come in, and Barry Hawkins is battling away as I type this.
I am currently looking at improving this service (yes, yes, a few more winners would be the best way!), but in seeing whether I can link it up to an email offering. It would still be free, but some of you may prefer the email version. Feel free to leave me comments on your thoughts on that.
2.20 Exeter Benayoun 4/1 (LOST -24.75 - travelled nicely until 2 out, but couldn't stay with the pace and fell at the last)
No Rafa hasn't loaned out one of his expensive Premier League 5th placers to the Blue Square Premier side, but I am looking for his namesake to paint Exeter red for us. His debut over hurdles was encouraging and suggested a race of this level wouldn't be beyond his grasp. He seems well weighted here with the danger on the official ratings being Watch Out, although his stamina over this trip and going has to be questioned. As the only horse in the race that seems to be going the right way - you have to go back to November to find a placed finish for any other horse in the race - he seems the one to be on.
5.13 Harrington to beat Chopra and Cink 3-ball 7/5 (TIE -24.55 - An up and down round from Pod saw him 3 over after 4 holes, but he then had 5 birdies in the next 9 and finished -1. Chopra birdied the last to make the 3-ball a tie after Stewart Cink had gone in the water and ended up +1)
Daniel Chopra started the year on fire, winning the Mercedes-Benz Champs in Hawaii, but he has fallen back into the pack since then. Stewart Cink has two top 10s as well as finishing runner-up to Tiger in the World Matchplay. However, for me this just serves to give us some rare 3-ball value. Pod's previous trip to the US this year saw him find his feet quickly with a 14th place in the AT&T Pro-Am and then a 3rd place at the Northern Trust Open. And the third highest ranked player in the field is worth getting onside early.
7.45 Salisbury Draw No Bet to beat Stevenage 10/11 (WON -23.64 - A late late goal, but Salisbury were good for the victory overall)
Only 4 places separate these teams in the Conference table, but the 12 point difference is why Stevenage are in the hunt for the playoffs while Salisbury are playing for pride now. But its homepride that is the key to tonight's bet. Salisbury have only lost 3 games at home all season and are unbeaten in 9 - you have to go back to December 2nd to find a loss. While Stevenage have been all or nothing on the road - 9 wins, but 8 losses and only 2 draws. That record looked a lot better in January before they took just 4 points from a possible 21, losing three of those seven to teams in the bottom half of the table. So you may just get your money back tonight, but if it does go one way, you have to feel it probably falls Salisbury's way.
I am currently looking at improving this service (yes, yes, a few more winners would be the best way!), but in seeing whether I can link it up to an email offering. It would still be free, but some of you may prefer the email version. Feel free to leave me comments on your thoughts on that.
2.20 Exeter Benayoun 4/1 (LOST -24.75 - travelled nicely until 2 out, but couldn't stay with the pace and fell at the last)
No Rafa hasn't loaned out one of his expensive Premier League 5th placers to the Blue Square Premier side, but I am looking for his namesake to paint Exeter red for us. His debut over hurdles was encouraging and suggested a race of this level wouldn't be beyond his grasp. He seems well weighted here with the danger on the official ratings being Watch Out, although his stamina over this trip and going has to be questioned. As the only horse in the race that seems to be going the right way - you have to go back to November to find a placed finish for any other horse in the race - he seems the one to be on.
5.13 Harrington to beat Chopra and Cink 3-ball 7/5 (TIE -24.55 - An up and down round from Pod saw him 3 over after 4 holes, but he then had 5 birdies in the next 9 and finished -1. Chopra birdied the last to make the 3-ball a tie after Stewart Cink had gone in the water and ended up +1)
Daniel Chopra started the year on fire, winning the Mercedes-Benz Champs in Hawaii, but he has fallen back into the pack since then. Stewart Cink has two top 10s as well as finishing runner-up to Tiger in the World Matchplay. However, for me this just serves to give us some rare 3-ball value. Pod's previous trip to the US this year saw him find his feet quickly with a 14th place in the AT&T Pro-Am and then a 3rd place at the Northern Trust Open. And the third highest ranked player in the field is worth getting onside early.
7.45 Salisbury Draw No Bet to beat Stevenage 10/11 (WON -23.64 - A late late goal, but Salisbury were good for the victory overall)
Only 4 places separate these teams in the Conference table, but the 12 point difference is why Stevenage are in the hunt for the playoffs while Salisbury are playing for pride now. But its homepride that is the key to tonight's bet. Salisbury have only lost 3 games at home all season and are unbeaten in 9 - you have to go back to December 2nd to find a loss. While Stevenage have been all or nothing on the road - 9 wins, but 8 losses and only 2 draws. That record looked a lot better in January before they took just 4 points from a possible 21, losing three of those seven to teams in the bottom half of the table. So you may just get your money back tonight, but if it does go one way, you have to feel it probably falls Salisbury's way.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Snooker and Racing
Well its good to be back in Blighty and back on the old treadmill again. Snooker action from China today is the first up.
By the way, good luck to anyone running the London Marathon in a couple of weeks time. Hope all that training is banged into the legs now. Particularly good luck to my friends Toby Bailey and Harry Judd, who are both running for worthwhile charities. Please feel free to sponsor them if you have a winner today!
Toby is running for the Lords Taverners - http://www.justgiving.com/tobybailey2
Harry is running for the Teenage Cancer Trust and Kent House, a brain injury service - https://www.teenagecancertrust.org/sponsor/harryrunsthemarathon
11.30 Barry Hawkins to beat Stephen Maguire 7/4 (LOST -21.75 - A solid break in the 5th frame to get back to 3-2 looked to set up a close finish, but Maguire pulled away again)
Hawkins is having a better season than last year and is on target to register more ranking points this season than last and get into the key top 16. Maguire is having a decent season too, but not quite shoopting the lights out like last season, although he will surely have ideas about next month at The Crucible. Maguire is rightly favourite for this match, but there have been upsets already this week - Hawkins 5-1 defeat of Stephen Hendry being a case in point - and so 7/4 about a tough player who gives little away when he's in, seems worth a flutter.
2.50 Southwell Savile's Delight 5/4 (LOST -22.75 - Disappointing jockey work from Richard Kingscote never put our selection in the race. When he set about it he finished well, but alas too late)
Now then, now then, now then. What we have here is a letter from a little boy what says "Dear Jim, Could you fix it for me to have a winner at Southwell today". Ok, yes Sir Jimmy has two 'l's in his surname but this geldinig could be one 'ell of a winner here today. Despite being officially 4lbs wrong versus Fire Up the Band, the topweight went backwards last summer and a first run on the all weather for over two years doesn't suggest that run is about to change. Our slection however, is prove over C&D with 3 wins, two 2nds and a third in his 6 runs over 5f at Southwell this year. I'm going for another in the win column.
3.50 Kempton L'Oudon e/w 11/1 (LOST -23.75 - looked good for the first 2 miles and moved into the places coming to 2 out. Then faded fast from there, possibly something going wrong as he dropped away so quickly)
This ex Paul Nicholls trained gelding made an excellent return to hurdling for his new yard a fortnight ago, when handled well by today's jockey Liam Treadwell. He never quite fulfilled his early promise for Nicholls, but he handles Kempton and Gd-Sft, and with one win and three places in his last four Handicap Hurdles, 11/1 looks a decent each way proposition today.
By the way, good luck to anyone running the London Marathon in a couple of weeks time. Hope all that training is banged into the legs now. Particularly good luck to my friends Toby Bailey and Harry Judd, who are both running for worthwhile charities. Please feel free to sponsor them if you have a winner today!
Toby is running for the Lords Taverners - http://www.justgiving.com/tobybailey2
Harry is running for the Teenage Cancer Trust and Kent House, a brain injury service - https://www.teenagecancertrust.org/sponsor/harryrunsthemarathon
11.30 Barry Hawkins to beat Stephen Maguire 7/4 (LOST -21.75 - A solid break in the 5th frame to get back to 3-2 looked to set up a close finish, but Maguire pulled away again)
Hawkins is having a better season than last year and is on target to register more ranking points this season than last and get into the key top 16. Maguire is having a decent season too, but not quite shoopting the lights out like last season, although he will surely have ideas about next month at The Crucible. Maguire is rightly favourite for this match, but there have been upsets already this week - Hawkins 5-1 defeat of Stephen Hendry being a case in point - and so 7/4 about a tough player who gives little away when he's in, seems worth a flutter.
2.50 Southwell Savile's Delight 5/4 (LOST -22.75 - Disappointing jockey work from Richard Kingscote never put our selection in the race. When he set about it he finished well, but alas too late)
Now then, now then, now then. What we have here is a letter from a little boy what says "Dear Jim, Could you fix it for me to have a winner at Southwell today". Ok, yes Sir Jimmy has two 'l's in his surname but this geldinig could be one 'ell of a winner here today. Despite being officially 4lbs wrong versus Fire Up the Band, the topweight went backwards last summer and a first run on the all weather for over two years doesn't suggest that run is about to change. Our slection however, is prove over C&D with 3 wins, two 2nds and a third in his 6 runs over 5f at Southwell this year. I'm going for another in the win column.
3.50 Kempton L'Oudon e/w 11/1 (LOST -23.75 - looked good for the first 2 miles and moved into the places coming to 2 out. Then faded fast from there, possibly something going wrong as he dropped away so quickly)
This ex Paul Nicholls trained gelding made an excellent return to hurdling for his new yard a fortnight ago, when handled well by today's jockey Liam Treadwell. He never quite fulfilled his early promise for Nicholls, but he handles Kempton and Gd-Sft, and with one win and three places in his last four Handicap Hurdles, 11/1 looks a decent each way proposition today.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Football
Having nearly been blown off a mountain in 80mph winds on Friday I am now back! And its time to score more times than Paul Jewell with other people's wives. Can't be bothered with another yawnsome England friendly, just to give show ponies like Beckham his 100th cap. Lets focus on some proper football!
7.45 Lee Steele 1st Goal e/w 9/1 (LOST -20.75 - Picked the wrong one again! The Asian handicap would have paid out with the Vics earniing a 1-1 draw. Unfortunately Lee Steele didn't get the goal though)
Northwich Vics are attempting to perform a Houdini-esque turnaround in form. They are currently 4 points from safety but with 2 games in hand on Farlsey, having so far amassed 29 points in 36 games. Amazingly 14 of those points have come in the last 6 games, and much can be put down to the goalscoring feats of Lee Steele. The Scouser has netted 8 in these last 6 games as the Vics have rattled in 19 goals - 40% of the whole season's goal tally! York's assault on a playoff spot has meanwhile spluttered and looks a long shot now, and with only 3 clean sheets in 2008, the Vics will fancy their chances of picking something up tonight. I looked at the Asian Handicap, but I think Steele for first goal offers more value. Bet365 have him as low as 13/2, but BlueSquare offer 9/1 and offer 1/3 odds for first four goalscorers. Take advantage.
7.45 Lee Steele 1st Goal e/w 9/1 (LOST -20.75 - Picked the wrong one again! The Asian handicap would have paid out with the Vics earniing a 1-1 draw. Unfortunately Lee Steele didn't get the goal though)
Northwich Vics are attempting to perform a Houdini-esque turnaround in form. They are currently 4 points from safety but with 2 games in hand on Farlsey, having so far amassed 29 points in 36 games. Amazingly 14 of those points have come in the last 6 games, and much can be put down to the goalscoring feats of Lee Steele. The Scouser has netted 8 in these last 6 games as the Vics have rattled in 19 goals - 40% of the whole season's goal tally! York's assault on a playoff spot has meanwhile spluttered and looks a long shot now, and with only 3 clean sheets in 2008, the Vics will fancy their chances of picking something up tonight. I looked at the Asian Handicap, but I think Steele for first goal offers more value. Bet365 have him as low as 13/2, but BlueSquare offer 9/1 and offer 1/3 odds for first four goalscorers. Take advantage.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Monday, March 17, 2008
Racing and Football
A winner at last! I'd forgotten what it feels like! But no point in wallowing in the glory. Its time to keep chipping away at that deficit.
2.10 Warwick Cornelia e/w 10/1 (3rd -18.75 - Stayed well as expected and took the third place)
This mare has improved in both her last runs over two and a half miles and Dominic Elsworthy is getting to grips with her. She showed when placed at Towcester that she handles the mud and has provided each way returns at 20/1 and 14/1 on her last two outings, whereas the three ahead of her in the market today are unproven over this trip in this going. At this price today she can be useful to have onside again.
7.45 Brighton Draw No Bet v Huddersfield 11/10 (LOST -19.75 - We never really looked like taking the money, but money back looked a reasonable chance until the late penalty, and Brighton even hit the post in injury time)
Brighton are 9th in League One, and have won or drawn 9 out of 18 away games. Huddersfield are 15th, and have drawn or lost 10 out of 18 home games. Therefore should Brighton be odds against in the draw no bet market? So is it the form that has got the layers marking them up as such? Nope. Brighton have won 3 of their last four including a win at 5th placed Walsall and at home to 2nd placed Doncaster on Saturday. Huddersfield have lost 5 of their last six meanwhile. Need more convincing? With 9 games to go the Terriers are 10 points from a playoff spot and 10 points clear of relegation, so comfortable with neither really to worry about. Brighton however will want to continue their good form as they are just one point off the playoffs with a game in hand on Walsall and two on Tranmere (6th) and Leyton Orient (7th). Get two results on your side at a decent price...
2.10 Warwick Cornelia e/w 10/1 (3rd -18.75 - Stayed well as expected and took the third place)
This mare has improved in both her last runs over two and a half miles and Dominic Elsworthy is getting to grips with her. She showed when placed at Towcester that she handles the mud and has provided each way returns at 20/1 and 14/1 on her last two outings, whereas the three ahead of her in the market today are unproven over this trip in this going. At this price today she can be useful to have onside again.
7.45 Brighton Draw No Bet v Huddersfield 11/10 (LOST -19.75 - We never really looked like taking the money, but money back looked a reasonable chance until the late penalty, and Brighton even hit the post in injury time)
Brighton are 9th in League One, and have won or drawn 9 out of 18 away games. Huddersfield are 15th, and have drawn or lost 10 out of 18 home games. Therefore should Brighton be odds against in the draw no bet market? So is it the form that has got the layers marking them up as such? Nope. Brighton have won 3 of their last four including a win at 5th placed Walsall and at home to 2nd placed Doncaster on Saturday. Huddersfield have lost 5 of their last six meanwhile. Need more convincing? With 9 games to go the Terriers are 10 points from a playoff spot and 10 points clear of relegation, so comfortable with neither really to worry about. Brighton however will want to continue their good form as they are just one point off the playoffs with a game in hand on Walsall and two on Tranmere (6th) and Leyton Orient (7th). Get two results on your side at a decent price...
Racing
Well that was a pretty poor week wasn't it?! Some cracking racing though, and the unique 10-race Thursday, more than made up for the depleted wallet, but its time to start replenishing those funds. And lets cheer up - England won the rugby and cricket and Hamilton kicked off the F1 season in style. Not much to pick at today with a relegation dogfight at St Andrews, Lingfield going to the weather, and small fields at Taunton, so the all weather at Wolverhampton it is. And even that isn't great fayre.
3.30 Wolverhampton Hurricane Hen 7/4 (WON -19.25 - took a good ride, but once inside the final furlong always looked the stronger beast)
The Racing Post calls this horse soft, but I think that's harsh. The 4 horses that have beaten him in his last three races have subsequently recorded 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 unplaced, and he was only a cumulative distance of 6.5 lengths down on them. He has been dropped 9lbs by the handicapper since the first of those three runs, and at these weights is 3lbs better than his nearest rival, Swallow Forest, and 10lbs better than the next best.
3.30 Wolverhampton Hurricane Hen 7/4 (WON -19.25 - took a good ride, but once inside the final furlong always looked the stronger beast)
The Racing Post calls this horse soft, but I think that's harsh. The 4 horses that have beaten him in his last three races have subsequently recorded 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 unplaced, and he was only a cumulative distance of 6.5 lengths down on them. He has been dropped 9lbs by the handicapper since the first of those three runs, and at these weights is 3lbs better than his nearest rival, Swallow Forest, and 10lbs better than the next best.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Cheltenham Day Two/Three
When the going gets tough, the tough get going. And yesterday was tough. Off piste betting at Huntingdon and Southwell kept the boys in good spirits. Then the 3 card brag came out... before the sport moved to chatting up barmaids!
Ten races today makes it a day for stayers, so dont wade in and keep your powder dry for the outsiders in the darts tonight...
7.30 1-fourfold and 4 3-folds (LOST -21.00 - Mardle started us off well with a win, and Manley was a leg short of covering the handicap, but Barney and Taylor have started to show their class now. So at the halfway stage its looking like there is only really one semi-final place up for grabs, but all five have a shout)
Mardle+2.5 bt Jenkins 4/5
Manley+2.5 bt Wade 11/10
Lewis+2.5 bt Barneveld 10/11
Part+3.5 bt Taylor 5/6
Its all been very tight in the Premier League lately, with the exception of the resurgence of The Power. And so I think it will pay to get with the outsiders today on the handicaps, with all offering a 2.5 game start.
Ten races today makes it a day for stayers, so dont wade in and keep your powder dry for the outsiders in the darts tonight...
7.30 1-fourfold and 4 3-folds (LOST -21.00 - Mardle started us off well with a win, and Manley was a leg short of covering the handicap, but Barney and Taylor have started to show their class now. So at the halfway stage its looking like there is only really one semi-final place up for grabs, but all five have a shout)
Mardle+2.5 bt Jenkins 4/5
Manley+2.5 bt Wade 11/10
Lewis+2.5 bt Barneveld 10/11
Part+3.5 bt Taylor 5/6
Its all been very tight in the Premier League lately, with the exception of the resurgence of The Power. And so I think it will pay to get with the outsiders today on the handicaps, with all offering a 2.5 game start.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Cheltenham Day One
There are plenty of crazy bets and plenty of good offers going round ahead of the big start today at 2.00, so now would be a good time to open a new online account. Still my favourite is Bet365 who remove that dilemma of whether to take a price or not - with them you take the price at the time and if the SP is higher you get the SP. They also do a Channel 4 special which includes Cheltenham that if you back a winner at 4/1 or better you get a free bet to the same stake in the next Channel 4 race and you can keep going and going. If you are happy with your accounts though, make sure you check out www.oddschecker.com to make sure you're getting the best prices.
Well thats the waffle out the way, now to the big test...
2.00 There is no standout favourite in this race and for a very good reason. As far as I'll go is to say I see the winner being one of Captain Cee Bee, Rippling Ring or Muirhead. The money seems to have come for the latter, particularly across the Irish Sea.
2.35 Noland (LOST -14.00 - Travelled well, but had no answer to the awesome run by Tidal Bay and came in third)
This looks much easier to pick. Yes Noland is a short price and Paddy Power suggested on the morning line he was his lay of the day but thats a brave call, and may just be the Irishman talking his book. I dont see much troubling this Cheltenham specialist and so he's my first tip of the day.
3.15 Sizing Europe (LOST -15.00 - Looked like the winner as he came up to the leaders coming up to two from home with his jockey barely moved. But once he touched down he slowed very quickly to be as good as pulled up, and something clearly went wrong.)
A cracking race in prospect with last year's winner, last year's Supreme Novices winner, and last year's Triumph Hurdle all taking the start, but I cant see past any Irish winner here. Sizing Europe just has too much class for me, even in this company.
4.00 A very difficult one to pick this, so go make yourself some tea, crack open the biscuits and tune into Countdown for a while before the best bet of the day.
4.40 NAP of the day. Wonderkid. (LOST -16.00 - Given an awful ride, held up at the back and consequently never put in the race. Difficult to assess the form based on that)
These cross country races have been farmed by the Irish and you need any experienced horse who's been round here before. The stats are quite skewed in these races given Spotthedifference's dominance, however only 3 of 24 races have seen anything outside the front five in the betting bring home the bacon. But this year you only need to get to number one in the betting - Mr Martin's entry has won round here before and I expect to see him set us up for the lottery of the last.
5.20 Another difficult to pick handicap but it could be another Pipe v Nicholls Cheltenham battle. Can Ashkazar continue the trend of the last two years' winners of Aga Khan bred horses winning? On the form of his run at Sandown on Saturday he could do. But only 2 horses in the first 7 home in the 3 runnings of this race have been at single figure prices. One of which though was last year's winner Gaspara, who had also won at Sandown the previous Saturday... for David Pipe. Make your own mind up!!!
Well thats the waffle out the way, now to the big test...
2.00 There is no standout favourite in this race and for a very good reason. As far as I'll go is to say I see the winner being one of Captain Cee Bee, Rippling Ring or Muirhead. The money seems to have come for the latter, particularly across the Irish Sea.
2.35 Noland (LOST -14.00 - Travelled well, but had no answer to the awesome run by Tidal Bay and came in third)
This looks much easier to pick. Yes Noland is a short price and Paddy Power suggested on the morning line he was his lay of the day but thats a brave call, and may just be the Irishman talking his book. I dont see much troubling this Cheltenham specialist and so he's my first tip of the day.
3.15 Sizing Europe (LOST -15.00 - Looked like the winner as he came up to the leaders coming up to two from home with his jockey barely moved. But once he touched down he slowed very quickly to be as good as pulled up, and something clearly went wrong.)
A cracking race in prospect with last year's winner, last year's Supreme Novices winner, and last year's Triumph Hurdle all taking the start, but I cant see past any Irish winner here. Sizing Europe just has too much class for me, even in this company.
4.00 A very difficult one to pick this, so go make yourself some tea, crack open the biscuits and tune into Countdown for a while before the best bet of the day.
4.40 NAP of the day. Wonderkid. (LOST -16.00 - Given an awful ride, held up at the back and consequently never put in the race. Difficult to assess the form based on that)
These cross country races have been farmed by the Irish and you need any experienced horse who's been round here before. The stats are quite skewed in these races given Spotthedifference's dominance, however only 3 of 24 races have seen anything outside the front five in the betting bring home the bacon. But this year you only need to get to number one in the betting - Mr Martin's entry has won round here before and I expect to see him set us up for the lottery of the last.
5.20 Another difficult to pick handicap but it could be another Pipe v Nicholls Cheltenham battle. Can Ashkazar continue the trend of the last two years' winners of Aga Khan bred horses winning? On the form of his run at Sandown on Saturday he could do. But only 2 horses in the first 7 home in the 3 runnings of this race have been at single figure prices. One of which though was last year's winner Gaspara, who had also won at Sandown the previous Saturday... for David Pipe. Make your own mind up!!!
Day One Update
Two whispers from the track...
3.15 Sizing Europe (Already Backed)
Hearing very good things about this and some serious punters here to put some big bets on it.
5.20 Ashkazar 5/2
David Pipe has just told us this will win. Need we say anymore?
3.15 Sizing Europe (Already Backed)
Hearing very good things about this and some serious punters here to put some big bets on it.
5.20 Ashkazar 5/2
David Pipe has just told us this will win. Need we say anymore?
Cheltenham Day One
There are plenty of crazy bets and plenty of good offers going round ahead of the big start today at 2.00, so now would be a good time to open a new online account. Still my favourite is Bet365 who remove that dilemma of whether to take a price or not - with them you take the price at the time and if the SP is higher you get the SP. They also do a Channel 4 special which includes Cheltenham that if you back a winner at 4/1 or better you get a free bet to the same stake in the next Channel 4 race and you can keep going and going. If you are happy with your accounts though, make sure you check out www.oddschecker.com to make sure you're getting the best prices.
Well thats the waffle out the way, now to the big test...
2.00 There is no standout favourite in this race and for a very good reason. As far as I'll go is to say I see the winner being one of Captain Cee Bee, Rippling Ring or Muirhead. The money seems to have come for the latter, particularly across the Irish Sea.
2.35 Noland 9/4
This looks much easier to pick. Yes Noland is a short price and Paddy Power suggested on the morning line he was his lay of the day but thats a brave call, and may just be the Irishman talking his book. I dont see much troubling this Cheltenham specialist and so he's my first tip of the day.
3.15 Sizing Europe 5/2
A cracking race in prospect with last year's winner, last year's Supreme Novices winner, and last year's Triumph Hurdle all taking the start, but I cant see past any Irish winner here. Sizing Europe just has too much class for me, even in this company.
4.00 A very difficult one to pick this, so go make yourself some tea, crack open the biscuits and tune into Countdown for a while before the best bet of the day.
4.40 NAP Wonderkid 11/4.
These cross country races have been farmed by the Irish and you need any experienced horse who's been round here before. The stats are quite skewed in these races given Spotthedifference's dominance, however only 3 of 24 races have seen anything outside the front five in the betting bring home the bacon. But this year you only need to get to number one in the betting - Mr Martin's entry has won round here before and I expect to see him set us up for the lottery of the last.
5.20 Another difficult to pick handicap but it could be another Pipe v Nicholls Cheltenham battle. Can Ashkazar continue the trend of the last two years' winners of Aga Khan bred horses winning? On the form of his run at Sandown on Saturday he could do. But only 2 horses in the first 7 home in the 3 runnings of this race have been at single figure prices. One of which though was last year's winner Gaspara, who had also won at Sandown the previous Saturday... for David Pipe. Make your own mind up!!!
Well thats the waffle out the way, now to the big test...
2.00 There is no standout favourite in this race and for a very good reason. As far as I'll go is to say I see the winner being one of Captain Cee Bee, Rippling Ring or Muirhead. The money seems to have come for the latter, particularly across the Irish Sea.
2.35 Noland 9/4
This looks much easier to pick. Yes Noland is a short price and Paddy Power suggested on the morning line he was his lay of the day but thats a brave call, and may just be the Irishman talking his book. I dont see much troubling this Cheltenham specialist and so he's my first tip of the day.
3.15 Sizing Europe 5/2
A cracking race in prospect with last year's winner, last year's Supreme Novices winner, and last year's Triumph Hurdle all taking the start, but I cant see past any Irish winner here. Sizing Europe just has too much class for me, even in this company.
4.00 A very difficult one to pick this, so go make yourself some tea, crack open the biscuits and tune into Countdown for a while before the best bet of the day.
4.40 NAP Wonderkid 11/4.
These cross country races have been farmed by the Irish and you need any experienced horse who's been round here before. The stats are quite skewed in these races given Spotthedifference's dominance, however only 3 of 24 races have seen anything outside the front five in the betting bring home the bacon. But this year you only need to get to number one in the betting - Mr Martin's entry has won round here before and I expect to see him set us up for the lottery of the last.
5.20 Another difficult to pick handicap but it could be another Pipe v Nicholls Cheltenham battle. Can Ashkazar continue the trend of the last two years' winners of Aga Khan bred horses winning? On the form of his run at Sandown on Saturday he could do. But only 2 horses in the first 7 home in the 3 runnings of this race have been at single figure prices. One of which though was last year's winner Gaspara, who had also won at Sandown the previous Saturday... for David Pipe. Make your own mind up!!!
Monday, March 10, 2008
Cheltenham
The Punter is at Cheltenham this week, so there may be sporadic updates. Please keep checking back.
Normal service will resume on Monday 17th.
Normal service will resume on Monday 17th.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Racing and Football
Well its currently easier to pick the non inbred in a Cornwall school photo than a winner, but we shan't give up and today we're calling in the Army! My local track Sandown have their military day today and one name stands out. By the way I would like to point out that my devotion to this blog is such that I would never be seen leaving nightclubs at 12.30am four days before making a tip.
2.10 Sandown - 4 x 3-fold and 1 x 4-fold on the following : 2.10 Bonchester Bridge, 2.40 Mighty Matters, 3.15 Scots Grey, 4.25 First Love (LOST -12.00 - The first two came in, and with the last being odds on, it looked like a winner at last. But neither of the last two came through and hopes were dashed)
As mentioned above, today is the military's day at Sandown and one man stands out, Captain Jamie Snowdon. He has a 52% success rate at the Surrey course and 60% over fences. The above are his four rides today, three over fences, and he has such a good quartet that every one has a genuine chance.
Bonchester Bridge (9/4) didnt liek the going last time out over fences, but back to hurdle on good ground over the minimum trip should be the right combination of factors with our man in the saddle.
Mighty Matters (6/1) is a bit of a conundrum. Pulled up lame in January, so fitness has to be taken as given. Found 3m1f too far in GdSoft round here in December, but had won three handicap chases on the bounce before that on Good and GdFirm ground. With today's trip back at 2m4f and good going, the last two runs may be able to be discounted.
Scots Grey (11/4). Our man has won this the last three years with Paul Nicholls. Today he rides for Nicky Henderson and its this horse and Nicholls' Turthen I expect to battle it out. With the ground racing good I dont see the weight our selection is giving away to count as much as it wuld in easier going.
First Love (10/11) won this race two years ago and looks the class act again. He almost matches his rider's record round Sandown and so will probably go off a short-priced favourite
7.45 Swansea beat Millwall 1/2 (LOST -13.00 - just when you think a team has a division sewn up this season they implode! 2-1 at home to Millwall?!!?)
A chance to buy money. Swansea are running away with this division, having won 10 of their last 11 home games. Millwall are fighting against relegation and I dont expect them to get any relief tonight.
2.10 Sandown - 4 x 3-fold and 1 x 4-fold on the following : 2.10 Bonchester Bridge, 2.40 Mighty Matters, 3.15 Scots Grey, 4.25 First Love (LOST -12.00 - The first two came in, and with the last being odds on, it looked like a winner at last. But neither of the last two came through and hopes were dashed)
As mentioned above, today is the military's day at Sandown and one man stands out, Captain Jamie Snowdon. He has a 52% success rate at the Surrey course and 60% over fences. The above are his four rides today, three over fences, and he has such a good quartet that every one has a genuine chance.
Bonchester Bridge (9/4) didnt liek the going last time out over fences, but back to hurdle on good ground over the minimum trip should be the right combination of factors with our man in the saddle.
Mighty Matters (6/1) is a bit of a conundrum. Pulled up lame in January, so fitness has to be taken as given. Found 3m1f too far in GdSoft round here in December, but had won three handicap chases on the bounce before that on Good and GdFirm ground. With today's trip back at 2m4f and good going, the last two runs may be able to be discounted.
Scots Grey (11/4). Our man has won this the last three years with Paul Nicholls. Today he rides for Nicky Henderson and its this horse and Nicholls' Turthen I expect to battle it out. With the ground racing good I dont see the weight our selection is giving away to count as much as it wuld in easier going.
First Love (10/11) won this race two years ago and looks the class act again. He almost matches his rider's record round Sandown and so will probably go off a short-priced favourite
7.45 Swansea beat Millwall 1/2 (LOST -13.00 - just when you think a team has a division sewn up this season they implode! 2-1 at home to Millwall?!!?)
A chance to buy money. Swansea are running away with this division, having won 10 of their last 11 home games. Millwall are fighting against relegation and I dont expect them to get any relief tonight.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Racing, Golf and Darts
Time we had a good Thursday as the start of the weekend and to build some cash up for Cheltenham. So we're covering the sports today.
2.00 Lingfield Cyborg 13/8 (LOST -7.00 - This horse was clearly the best horse in the race and would have won but for an appalling ride. If jockey's can get banned for bad steering and overuse of the whip, this guy wants banning for pure incompetence!)
A rare thing a bumper to start the day in the mixed turf/AW at Lingfield today, but this horse shaped very nicely on his debut at Sandown, and with David Elsworth's 25% bumper record at Lingfield he has to have a very good claim.
5.30 Wincanton Bump In The Night 5/2 (LOST -8.00 - Travelled nicely for the first mile and a half but couldn't go with the pace. May require a bit more give in the ground)
This horse has more ability than his bare form suggests and with Ruby Walsh at Thurles, Sam Thomas could be the one to register another winner at Wincanton for Paul Nicholls in what looks a straigtforward race.
5.50 Ernie Els to win 3ball 11/10 (LOST -9.00 Not even second! 71 played 72 played 73 and Ernie missed the cut)
Ernie seems to be getting back to his top class form of a few years back finally, after many, including myself had written him off. His win last week in Florida will have done him the world of good and he'll still be enjoying the sunshine today as he takes on journeyman Heath Slocum and Geoff Ogilvy who is yet to really get going this season
9.00 Jenkins to beat Manley 8/11 (LOST -10.00 - at 5-2 up we finally looked like getting a winner only for Manley's wife to scowl at her husband and inspire him to move 7-6 ahead before Bully made it a point each)
Peter Manley has been King of Draws this Premier Leage with 3 from 5 so far and just the single defeat to Barney so far, and a win over the Power. But The Bull has shown how he relishes this format with comprehensive wins over Taylor, Barneveld, and Part by a total margin of 12 legs. and while Manley will push him all the way, I think Jenkins will just have enough on current form to edge this. The handicap is difficult to call hence, but outright I want Jenkins onside.
2.00 Lingfield Cyborg 13/8 (LOST -7.00 - This horse was clearly the best horse in the race and would have won but for an appalling ride. If jockey's can get banned for bad steering and overuse of the whip, this guy wants banning for pure incompetence!)
A rare thing a bumper to start the day in the mixed turf/AW at Lingfield today, but this horse shaped very nicely on his debut at Sandown, and with David Elsworth's 25% bumper record at Lingfield he has to have a very good claim.
5.30 Wincanton Bump In The Night 5/2 (LOST -8.00 - Travelled nicely for the first mile and a half but couldn't go with the pace. May require a bit more give in the ground)
This horse has more ability than his bare form suggests and with Ruby Walsh at Thurles, Sam Thomas could be the one to register another winner at Wincanton for Paul Nicholls in what looks a straigtforward race.
5.50 Ernie Els to win 3ball 11/10 (LOST -9.00 Not even second! 71 played 72 played 73 and Ernie missed the cut)
Ernie seems to be getting back to his top class form of a few years back finally, after many, including myself had written him off. His win last week in Florida will have done him the world of good and he'll still be enjoying the sunshine today as he takes on journeyman Heath Slocum and Geoff Ogilvy who is yet to really get going this season
9.00 Jenkins to beat Manley 8/11 (LOST -10.00 - at 5-2 up we finally looked like getting a winner only for Manley's wife to scowl at her husband and inspire him to move 7-6 ahead before Bully made it a point each)
Peter Manley has been King of Draws this Premier Leage with 3 from 5 so far and just the single defeat to Barney so far, and a win over the Power. But The Bull has shown how he relishes this format with comprehensive wins over Taylor, Barneveld, and Part by a total margin of 12 legs. and while Manley will push him all the way, I think Jenkins will just have enough on current form to edge this. The handicap is difficult to call hence, but outright I want Jenkins onside.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Tennis, Racing and Football
Disappointing day with no winners, but an outstanding performance from the Gooners, keeping England fighting on 4 fronts still in the Champions League.
Murray to win Dubai Tennis Champs 3/1 (-4.00 - a tame surrender in 2 sets to Davydenko was disappointing from the Scot)
For anyone who likes tennis and still believes its not fixed, have a go at Andy Murray. This season so far he's won two tournaments and gone out in the first round in the other three. He beat Federer in the first round here from a set down and has done so again against Fernando Verdasco today. He seems to have cranked his serve up and sorted out his on court emotional outbursts and seems to be really benefitting from that. Nadal and Djokovic the dangers but 3/1 now he's in the last 8 sounds a good bet.
3.40 Lingfield Tripod Molly 16/1 e/w (5th -5.00 - ran well but the front two went away with 1f to go, and our selection was 2l short of 3rd place)
Two decent showings in strong races previously suggests this fillie will be in the mix at the business end of the race and so 16/1 sounds too big to not snap up each way. Edward Crieghton on board isnt without ability either, noticed by Mick Channon recently.
7.45 Real Madrid to qualify 5/6 (LOST -6.00 - Madrid could never quite exert enough influence on the game to edge the goal they needed. When Raul got one back they tried to squeeze but the sucker punch counter attack meant they lost 2-1)
Madrid come back to the Bernabeu a goal down from the first leg, but if you recall it was a real game of two halves in the Olympic Stadium, and Madrid could have had the tie sewn up at half-time. They showed their resolve again at the weekend and I expect them to do the job again tonight. They are 4/5 to win in 90 minutes, but with our bet offering the extra time qualification too it seems the better bet.
Murray to win Dubai Tennis Champs 3/1 (-4.00 - a tame surrender in 2 sets to Davydenko was disappointing from the Scot)
For anyone who likes tennis and still believes its not fixed, have a go at Andy Murray. This season so far he's won two tournaments and gone out in the first round in the other three. He beat Federer in the first round here from a set down and has done so again against Fernando Verdasco today. He seems to have cranked his serve up and sorted out his on court emotional outbursts and seems to be really benefitting from that. Nadal and Djokovic the dangers but 3/1 now he's in the last 8 sounds a good bet.
3.40 Lingfield Tripod Molly 16/1 e/w (5th -5.00 - ran well but the front two went away with 1f to go, and our selection was 2l short of 3rd place)
Two decent showings in strong races previously suggests this fillie will be in the mix at the business end of the race and so 16/1 sounds too big to not snap up each way. Edward Crieghton on board isnt without ability either, noticed by Mick Channon recently.
7.45 Real Madrid to qualify 5/6 (LOST -6.00 - Madrid could never quite exert enough influence on the game to edge the goal they needed. When Raul got one back they tried to squeeze but the sucker punch counter attack meant they lost 2-1)
Madrid come back to the Bernabeu a goal down from the first leg, but if you recall it was a real game of two halves in the Olympic Stadium, and Madrid could have had the tie sewn up at half-time. They showed their resolve again at the weekend and I expect them to do the job again tonight. They are 4/5 to win in 90 minutes, but with our bet offering the extra time qualification too it seems the better bet.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Football
One up, one down for a neutral start to the month. And now at last we get to an interesting stage of the Champions League. After the boring league stages and cagey first legs now its make or break stage. So its football all the way tonight.
7.45 Oldham to beat Hartlepool 10/11 (LOST 1-0 -1.00)
Oldham are knocking on the door of the playoffs in League One and their recent home form is excellent. Only one loss at home since the start of November and 10 goals in the last five of those. Hartlepool should end up safe from relegation but its their away form that means they are looking down rather than up. In 17 games on the road, they have lost a colossal 12 games, only bottom club Port Vale have lost more, and on Saturday lost 3-0 at next to bottom Bournemouth. The journey to the south coast and back won't have helped things either and with Oldham only having had the short journey up the M6 after a 3-0 victory over Port Vale I'm taking John Sheridan's boys to double up.
7.45 Karim Benzema 1st goal e/w 11 (Paddy Power offer 1/3 odds 1-2-3) (LOST -2.00 - Lyon were a better side than many gave them credit for, but Benzema never really had a decent chance on goal)
Karim Benzema is the star in the Lyon side and despite very publicly not getting on with fellow striker Ben Arfa, is hot property, and is coveted by his opposing manager tonight, Sir Alex Ferguson. The boy can score goals, as he did in Lyon's league win on Saturday and in the first leg against United, so he's in form, and he has scored 4 in his last four Champions League games - the other three coming away from home. So with the added opportunity to impress his United admirers he will be a good bet to get on the scoresheet again tonight.
7.45 Barcelona -2 to beat Celtic 12/5 (LOST -3.00 - another charmed performance by Celtic. Battered agaon but somehow only lost by one goal. Helped by the fact that the early goal meant Barca knew Celtic had to score 3 to win, but still disappointing)
Celtic were lucky to get 2 at home and lucky Barca didnt score 6. And having lost to Atletico Madrid on Saturday night, the Champions League offers Barca's best chance of silverware this season now. Ronaldinho is getting back to his best, as witnessed by anyone who saw his tremendous goal in Saturday's defeat, and tonight I expect Celtic to finally get the beating they have somehow managed to escape for so long in Europe. If you're a spread better, I'd be getting long to the ying yang!!!
7.45 Oldham to beat Hartlepool 10/11 (LOST 1-0 -1.00)
Oldham are knocking on the door of the playoffs in League One and their recent home form is excellent. Only one loss at home since the start of November and 10 goals in the last five of those. Hartlepool should end up safe from relegation but its their away form that means they are looking down rather than up. In 17 games on the road, they have lost a colossal 12 games, only bottom club Port Vale have lost more, and on Saturday lost 3-0 at next to bottom Bournemouth. The journey to the south coast and back won't have helped things either and with Oldham only having had the short journey up the M6 after a 3-0 victory over Port Vale I'm taking John Sheridan's boys to double up.
7.45 Karim Benzema 1st goal e/w 11 (Paddy Power offer 1/3 odds 1-2-3) (LOST -2.00 - Lyon were a better side than many gave them credit for, but Benzema never really had a decent chance on goal)
Karim Benzema is the star in the Lyon side and despite very publicly not getting on with fellow striker Ben Arfa, is hot property, and is coveted by his opposing manager tonight, Sir Alex Ferguson. The boy can score goals, as he did in Lyon's league win on Saturday and in the first leg against United, so he's in form, and he has scored 4 in his last four Champions League games - the other three coming away from home. So with the added opportunity to impress his United admirers he will be a good bet to get on the scoresheet again tonight.
7.45 Barcelona -2 to beat Celtic 12/5 (LOST -3.00 - another charmed performance by Celtic. Battered agaon but somehow only lost by one goal. Helped by the fact that the early goal meant Barca knew Celtic had to score 3 to win, but still disappointing)
Celtic were lucky to get 2 at home and lucky Barca didnt score 6. And having lost to Atletico Madrid on Saturday night, the Champions League offers Barca's best chance of silverware this season now. Ronaldinho is getting back to his best, as witnessed by anyone who saw his tremendous goal in Saturday's defeat, and tonight I expect Celtic to finally get the beating they have somehow managed to escape for so long in Europe. If you're a spread better, I'd be getting long to the ying yang!!!
Monday, March 3, 2008
Football and Racing
So the slate's wiped clean. Welcome to March and good luck with Cheltenham ahead!
Everton to finish in Top Four 15/8
And I know I don't do long-term generally but today I see too much value in one to miss it. I mentioned it previously but now I'm tipping it. Its neck and neck with Liverpool with a game in hand and 3 pts behind. Of their last 10 Everton have Sunderland, Fulham, Derby, Birmingham, and West Ham as bankers, Arsenal and Chelsea as 'unlikelies', and the key games are the Mersyside Derby on March 30th and home to Villa on 27th April. Liverpool have to go to Arsenal and Man United, and have Man City, Blackburn and Spurs away as the potential banana skins. Its those three versus Everton's one versus Villa, that makes me think a draw on Derby day will be enough to see the blue half finish fourth and this bet come in.
However, don't rule out huge disappointment at Goodison as, for the second time, Liverpool finish fifth, win the Champions League and take Everton's spot in Europe again! I hope it doesn't my Toffee friends, but be prepared!
2.30 Stratford Gabreselassie 5/1 (LOST -1.00 - stayed on after making the pace to finish 5th, suggesting he will probably need further, but certainly worth keeping an eye on)
Not the highest quality maiden, and Jonjo O'Neill's gelding ran a decent bumper last month when coming in dsecond and that form suggests he should be in the mix here. Each way just gives insurance should he not quite be good enough. But can you not back Gebreselassie over 3000m?!?!? ;-)
4.40 Lingfield Opus Maximus Evns (WON 0.00 - ran keenly at the start again but was well up to the task and justified his short price. Maid of Ailsa is one to note for last time if they can get her out the stalls better)
Another maiden who hung on his only start so far and still only lost by a nose last Tuesday. I expect. Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning have won 4 out of their last 6 partnerships including Friday's winner Trimaran and I feel this should improve those stats again.
Everton to finish in Top Four 15/8
And I know I don't do long-term generally but today I see too much value in one to miss it. I mentioned it previously but now I'm tipping it. Its neck and neck with Liverpool with a game in hand and 3 pts behind. Of their last 10 Everton have Sunderland, Fulham, Derby, Birmingham, and West Ham as bankers, Arsenal and Chelsea as 'unlikelies', and the key games are the Mersyside Derby on March 30th and home to Villa on 27th April. Liverpool have to go to Arsenal and Man United, and have Man City, Blackburn and Spurs away as the potential banana skins. Its those three versus Everton's one versus Villa, that makes me think a draw on Derby day will be enough to see the blue half finish fourth and this bet come in.
However, don't rule out huge disappointment at Goodison as, for the second time, Liverpool finish fifth, win the Champions League and take Everton's spot in Europe again! I hope it doesn't my Toffee friends, but be prepared!
2.30 Stratford Gabreselassie 5/1 (LOST -1.00 - stayed on after making the pace to finish 5th, suggesting he will probably need further, but certainly worth keeping an eye on)
Not the highest quality maiden, and Jonjo O'Neill's gelding ran a decent bumper last month when coming in dsecond and that form suggests he should be in the mix here. Each way just gives insurance should he not quite be good enough. But can you not back Gebreselassie over 3000m?!?!? ;-)
4.40 Lingfield Opus Maximus Evns (WON 0.00 - ran keenly at the start again but was well up to the task and justified his short price. Maid of Ailsa is one to note for last time if they can get her out the stalls better)
Another maiden who hung on his only start so far and still only lost by a nose last Tuesday. I expect. Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning have won 4 out of their last 6 partnerships including Friday's winner Trimaran and I feel this should improve those stats again.
February Review
Well after a good start, the going got tough and I couldn't quite get back above the gain line, but overall, two and a half months in, we're still up so lets get back on track in March. Thank you for your continued support!
February loss : £1.07
Success rate : 32% (16/50)
Overall profit : £28.49
Overall success : 41% (48/117)
February loss : £1.07
Success rate : 32% (16/50)
Overall profit : £28.49
Overall success : 41% (48/117)
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