Well United went through, but who would have predicted just one goal in 180 minutes of football between those sides? And going into a big game, would you rather have Ronaldo or Messi on your side? But its the full English in Moscow, all remains is to see whether its USA v USA in the Directors Box, or a renewal of Cold War hostilities. And the snooker, aside from Hendry wiping the floor with Ryan Day, looks a mouthwatering proposition.
* Please note - in updating the profit for yesterday I have included the losses on Barnsley getting relegated, Sunderland getting relegated and Everton finishing fourth
10am Wen Bo +3.5 frames v O'Sullivan 5/6 (LOST +13.35 - Ronnie had a sparkling second session winning the first seven frames and while then won three out the next four, the result was a formality, 13-7)
I've been watching the young Chinese cueist since his first round appearance as you know, and I have been impressed with his clean potting and calmness. Yes he stumbled over the finish line in the 2nd round and he needs to convert a few more 50s into 100s (He's not yet into Ian Bell territory though), but he is learning with every match and being based in Sheffield is obviously helping him relax between sessions and keep focussed at The Crucible. He may falter towards the finish againi tonight, but I think he can stay on Ronnie's coat tails for this morning's session, and if the Rocket's demons get to him, who knows. At 4-4 currently, Liang needs to win 6 to Ronnie's 9 to cover the handicap and I think that's very doable.
7.45 Liverpool +0.25 Asian Handicap v Chelsea Evens (WON +13.85 - It didn't quite go to penalties and was a more entertaining game than expected, but we won the bet nonetheless)
Another tight game in store for viewers tonight, and I can't see being the exciting affair we saw from Old Trafford last night. There is a lot of recent history between these two, and recent form suggests Chelsea are stronger. However, Liverpool do just have something extra they call up in Europe, and Chelsea have been prone to giving up leads lately - something they just didn't do under the Special One. I would be surprised if Liverpool go to Stamford Bridge and win in it 90 minutes, but I can see the game going to extra time and penalties and then who knows. I still think Chelsea will creep through, but +0.25 asian handicap at Evens with Bet365 looks worth a go.
7.50 Great Leighs Zeloso e/w 8/1 (LOST +12.85 - finished 7th, travelled well, but having been held up, he never managed to get to the front four when they kicked on a couple of furlongs from home)
Our first bet at Britain's newest race course. It all seems to be going well over in Essex and tonight there is an each way fancy. Milton Harris owns and trains this 10 year old with a decent strike rate over hurdles and on the all weather. He has won or placed in exactly half of his appearances on the all weather and been placed in 4 out of his 5 runs on the flat over 2m+ , the last of those coming in his latest run over 2m1f at Wolverhampton two weeks ago, after 17 months off the track. With 15 runners, we'll get 1/4 odds first three, so dip in at 8/1.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Snooker and Racing
Again I can't get involved with the big game tonight. You have to fancy United with Barca misfiring so badly recently, but can you discount a side with the talent they have? I wull watch with interest but my money will be elsewhere - Sheffield to start with.
10.00 Carter to beat Ebdon Evns (WON 13-9 +11.77 A close affair, but an impressive 147 from Ali Carter and he could go all the way to the final)
Ali Carter edged a thriller in the first round against Barry Hawkins, but was expected to bow out in the second round to Shaun Murphy, but he dismissed Murphy, requiring just one frame in the final session so he will be fresh for what may be a long drawn out match against snookers Mr Boring, Peter Ebdon. Ebdon's game revolves around wearing players down, and it was that fact that saw him through against Jamie Cope 10-9 and eventually did for Mark King. But Carter has the temperament to not worry about the clock and cause another upset.
10.00 Hendry beat Day 6/5 (WON 13-7 +12.97 Hendry gets better with every round and his stunning first session has set up a mouth-watering clash with Ronnie)
I looked at Hendry before the tournament started and at 33/1 felt he was a big price. He was perhaps fortunate to sneak through the first round, but was close to being back to his best when dismissing the challenge of Ding Junhui 13-7. And while Ryan Day is a rising star, and he beat defending champ John Higgins 13-9, Higgins isn't the player he was last year, and the Welshman may find Hendry in his own front room, as he refers to it, a step to far for now.
8.35 Art Exhibition 11/8 (WON +14.35 - crusied round and pulled away from Okafranca who didn't get stay trip as discussed)
Jeremy Noseda has had two wins and a place from his 4 runners in the last seven days. The place was this horse, who has shaped on his last two runs like he may want further. So today he steps up to 12 furlongs and looks the obvious horse to get the trip, acts on the surface, which can't be said for certain of the second favourite, an is in form, by the two seconds in those two races. Seb Sanders will be looking to add another winner.
10.00 Carter to beat Ebdon Evns (WON 13-9 +11.77 A close affair, but an impressive 147 from Ali Carter and he could go all the way to the final)
Ali Carter edged a thriller in the first round against Barry Hawkins, but was expected to bow out in the second round to Shaun Murphy, but he dismissed Murphy, requiring just one frame in the final session so he will be fresh for what may be a long drawn out match against snookers Mr Boring, Peter Ebdon. Ebdon's game revolves around wearing players down, and it was that fact that saw him through against Jamie Cope 10-9 and eventually did for Mark King. But Carter has the temperament to not worry about the clock and cause another upset.
10.00 Hendry beat Day 6/5 (WON 13-7 +12.97 Hendry gets better with every round and his stunning first session has set up a mouth-watering clash with Ronnie)
I looked at Hendry before the tournament started and at 33/1 felt he was a big price. He was perhaps fortunate to sneak through the first round, but was close to being back to his best when dismissing the challenge of Ding Junhui 13-7. And while Ryan Day is a rising star, and he beat defending champ John Higgins 13-9, Higgins isn't the player he was last year, and the Welshman may find Hendry in his own front room, as he refers to it, a step to far for now.
8.35 Art Exhibition 11/8 (WON +14.35 - crusied round and pulled away from Okafranca who didn't get stay trip as discussed)
Jeremy Noseda has had two wins and a place from his 4 runners in the last seven days. The place was this horse, who has shaped on his last two runs like he may want further. So today he steps up to 12 furlongs and looks the obvious horse to get the trip, acts on the surface, which can't be said for certain of the second favourite, an is in form, by the two seconds in those two races. Seb Sanders will be looking to add another winner.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Football
Just a quick Saturday post today. Cant get involved in the big game at the Bridge, but there are a couple of others worth a double.
3.00 Liverpool beat Birmingham 17/10 (LOST +15.77 - the real Birmingham showed up too late and Liverpool could only get it back to 2-2)
Yes Liverpool will put a 'weakened' side out, but it isnt that weak! Birmingham had a huge embarrassing setback losing 5-1 at Villa last week and have only won 1 in the last 7, and Liverpool reserves will be keen to push for places in the Champions League side should Rafa fancy any changes. In the 5 games before knockout games in the European Cup they have won 3 and drawn 2, so they are hardly underperfoming, and so 17/10 seems too good to miss.
3.00 Montrose beat East Stirling 8/5 (LOST +14.77 - this looked good when Montrose went ahead but the Shire stormed back and won't finish bottom for the first time in 6 years! Crack open the champagne!)
And then to Scottish Div 3! The second best away record meets the worst home record, and East Stirling have only won 1 in their last 7 home games. Add in Montrose beating them 2-0 a couple of weeks ago and you see why I fancy them today.
3.00 Montrose & Liverpool Double 6/1 (LOST +13.77)
3.00 Liverpool beat Birmingham 17/10 (LOST +15.77 - the real Birmingham showed up too late and Liverpool could only get it back to 2-2)
Yes Liverpool will put a 'weakened' side out, but it isnt that weak! Birmingham had a huge embarrassing setback losing 5-1 at Villa last week and have only won 1 in the last 7, and Liverpool reserves will be keen to push for places in the Champions League side should Rafa fancy any changes. In the 5 games before knockout games in the European Cup they have won 3 and drawn 2, so they are hardly underperfoming, and so 17/10 seems too good to miss.
3.00 Montrose beat East Stirling 8/5 (LOST +14.77 - this looked good when Montrose went ahead but the Shire stormed back and won't finish bottom for the first time in 6 years! Crack open the champagne!)
And then to Scottish Div 3! The second best away record meets the worst home record, and East Stirling have only won 1 in their last 7 home games. Add in Montrose beating them 2-0 a couple of weeks ago and you see why I fancy them today.
3.00 Montrose & Liverpool Double 6/1 (LOST +13.77)
Friday, April 25, 2008
Snooker and Rugby League
These world championship snooker matches beinig over 3 sessions don't lend themselves to this format too well, but John Higgins and Ryan Day can't be happy being split over 3 days. But we are back to three sessions again today. Meanwhile the IPL gets better and better as Roy Symonds smashes the fastest 100 so far. And dirty Leeds are in action tonight trying to reduce the amount of points they dont deserve to get back. If I were the league I'd give them back one less than they need for an automatic promotion spot. Can you believe that in the programme at Leeds all season they have been printing what they call the 'real league table' without the points deduction?
2.30 Day to beat Higgins 3/1 (WON 13-9 +16.86 - A fine comeback from the Welshman saw the reigning champion bow out meekly)
John Higgins looked like getting an unassailable lead yesterday as he raced into a 4-0 lead. But Ryan Day won 3 out of 4 after the interval and got himself back into this game. On form so far this season, and first round performances, there is little between these two and with another 17 frames potentially to play there are many twists and turns to come. So 3/1 so early in the game has to be taken advantage of, even if you lay it off at a later point.
2.30 Murphy -3.5 frames v Carter Evens (LOST 13-4 +15.86 - The biggest shock of the tournament so far, but Carter looked very assured and could cause Peter Ebdon problems in the quarter-finals)
Shaun Murphy dismantled Dave Harold quickly in the first round, while Ali Carter needed all 19 frames to dispose of journeyman Barry Hawkins, and Carter just shouldn't live with Murphy. In their last two meetings Murphy has won 6-3, so I'm expecting a 13-8 type scoreline. I may have a flutter with that at 8s, but -3.5 on the handicap is a nice insurance.
8.00 Leeds -6 to beat Hull KR 10/11 (WON +16.77 - HullKR racked up 22 points but Leeds doubled the handicap)
Hull KR have been very steady this season - no big wins, now heavy defeats, while quietly amassing 12 points from 11 games and occupying 8th position. But tonight is the acid test against a Leeds side who have conceded 100 points less than anyone else, and are also the highest scoring side, with an average points difference of 19. And with several players rested for the Challenge Cup last week, they will be firing on all cylinders to increase that points difference tonight. The layers are split on whether to offer a 6 point or 8 point handicap. Both seem too skinny to me but with no difference in odds I will be taking advantage of the -6 at 10/11.
2.30 Day to beat Higgins 3/1 (WON 13-9 +16.86 - A fine comeback from the Welshman saw the reigning champion bow out meekly)
John Higgins looked like getting an unassailable lead yesterday as he raced into a 4-0 lead. But Ryan Day won 3 out of 4 after the interval and got himself back into this game. On form so far this season, and first round performances, there is little between these two and with another 17 frames potentially to play there are many twists and turns to come. So 3/1 so early in the game has to be taken advantage of, even if you lay it off at a later point.
2.30 Murphy -3.5 frames v Carter Evens (LOST 13-4 +15.86 - The biggest shock of the tournament so far, but Carter looked very assured and could cause Peter Ebdon problems in the quarter-finals)
Shaun Murphy dismantled Dave Harold quickly in the first round, while Ali Carter needed all 19 frames to dispose of journeyman Barry Hawkins, and Carter just shouldn't live with Murphy. In their last two meetings Murphy has won 6-3, so I'm expecting a 13-8 type scoreline. I may have a flutter with that at 8s, but -3.5 on the handicap is a nice insurance.
8.00 Leeds -6 to beat Hull KR 10/11 (WON +16.77 - HullKR racked up 22 points but Leeds doubled the handicap)
Hull KR have been very steady this season - no big wins, now heavy defeats, while quietly amassing 12 points from 11 games and occupying 8th position. But tonight is the acid test against a Leeds side who have conceded 100 points less than anyone else, and are also the highest scoring side, with an average points difference of 19. And with several players rested for the Challenge Cup last week, they will be firing on all cylinders to increase that points difference tonight. The layers are split on whether to offer a 6 point or 8 point handicap. Both seem too skinny to me but with no difference in odds I will be taking advantage of the -6 at 10/11.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Cricket and Darts
So now the first round is almost out the way, very little has changed in the snooker, although Ronnie is yet to be certain of getting through and the Chinese challenge gets stronger by the year. But today is eyes back on the IPL and of course everyone's favourite, the darts! It really is the business end now with 2 weeks to go, and 6 players competing for the final two remaining spots in the playoffs.
3.30 Rajasthan to beat Deccan 17/10 (WON +11.48 - what a game! Deccan's batting finally fires with Symonds hitting 117, but then hero became villain as Shane Warne hit him for back to back sixes off the last two balls of the game to knock off 214)
Deccan have started awfully, bowled out twice for a combined total of 252. Rajasthan also failed to fire in the first game but Shane Warne led by example with 3-19 and with two of his local players chipping in 3 wickets too, they kept Punjab down to 168, which Shane Watson's 76 and Indian U19 batsman Ravi Jadeja's 36 helped see off with 2 overs to spare. The locals could be the key to winning this tournament, supporting the stars, and that is why I fancy Warney's Royals to make it 2 from 3 today and leave Deccan up against it, especially at Sportingbet's 17/10 against everybody else's 6/4.
7.40 Manley +1.5 legs to bt Lewis Evns (WON +12.48 - Another draw for Manley and all he has to do now is do the double over Taylor next week!)
Ady Lewis has his place in the semi-finals in his own hands. He has his two main rivals Wayne Mardle and Peter Manley to play, and they both have Phil Taylor as their other remaining match. Two wins would do it for jackpot you would have to fancy. But he could stumble at the first hurdle tonight. Manley showed his fight to the death attitude that has kept him in contention much further than people expected him too, going down narrowly to James Wade last week, while Lewis was put in his place by Barney. Lewis missed too many doubles and One Dart won't allow him to get away with that. It was 7-7 last time and you wouldn't count that out again, so back Manley and keep the draw on your side with Ladbrokes even money for Manley with a 1.5 leg start.
8.30 Taylor -4 legs to bt Mardle 11/8 (WON +13.86 - It looked for a long time like a double whitewash was on the cards, until Mardle won the 7th leg. Normal service resumed though and it finished 8-1)
The Power just keeps taking his game to a new level. A new 3-dart average record last week, and John Part beat anybody else's 3-dart average by a good margin but still went down 8-3. Mardle played scrappy darts with Terry Jenkins and got a point though that nosed him into 4th place. However, the Power whitewashed Mardle last time out and I don't see Hawaii getting a sniff this time either. I'll be revisiting Skybet again this week and taking their Taylor -4 at 11/8 as several bookies have -4.5 at 10/11.
3.30 Rajasthan to beat Deccan 17/10 (WON +11.48 - what a game! Deccan's batting finally fires with Symonds hitting 117, but then hero became villain as Shane Warne hit him for back to back sixes off the last two balls of the game to knock off 214)
Deccan have started awfully, bowled out twice for a combined total of 252. Rajasthan also failed to fire in the first game but Shane Warne led by example with 3-19 and with two of his local players chipping in 3 wickets too, they kept Punjab down to 168, which Shane Watson's 76 and Indian U19 batsman Ravi Jadeja's 36 helped see off with 2 overs to spare. The locals could be the key to winning this tournament, supporting the stars, and that is why I fancy Warney's Royals to make it 2 from 3 today and leave Deccan up against it, especially at Sportingbet's 17/10 against everybody else's 6/4.
7.40 Manley +1.5 legs to bt Lewis Evns (WON +12.48 - Another draw for Manley and all he has to do now is do the double over Taylor next week!)
Ady Lewis has his place in the semi-finals in his own hands. He has his two main rivals Wayne Mardle and Peter Manley to play, and they both have Phil Taylor as their other remaining match. Two wins would do it for jackpot you would have to fancy. But he could stumble at the first hurdle tonight. Manley showed his fight to the death attitude that has kept him in contention much further than people expected him too, going down narrowly to James Wade last week, while Lewis was put in his place by Barney. Lewis missed too many doubles and One Dart won't allow him to get away with that. It was 7-7 last time and you wouldn't count that out again, so back Manley and keep the draw on your side with Ladbrokes even money for Manley with a 1.5 leg start.
8.30 Taylor -4 legs to bt Mardle 11/8 (WON +13.86 - It looked for a long time like a double whitewash was on the cards, until Mardle won the 7th leg. Normal service resumed though and it finished 8-1)
The Power just keeps taking his game to a new level. A new 3-dart average record last week, and John Part beat anybody else's 3-dart average by a good margin but still went down 8-3. Mardle played scrappy darts with Terry Jenkins and got a point though that nosed him into 4th place. However, the Power whitewashed Mardle last time out and I don't see Hawaii getting a sniff this time either. I'll be revisiting Skybet again this week and taking their Taylor -4 at 11/8 as several bookies have -4.5 at 10/11.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Snooker, Racing, Football
What was Riise doing? Imagine how much stick his son is going to get at school today! And then after they stopped teasing him for being ginger, they'll ask him what the f*ck his dad was doing last night! So the Champions League party moves from the Capital of Culture to the clearly much less cultured city of Barcelona. And the big guns make their debuts at the Crucible. Which Ronnie will turn up?
10am Doherty, O'Sullivan & Maguire Treble Evens (LOST+10.11 - out at first hurdle as Ken went down with barely a whimper to new Chinese sensation Liang Wenbo)
Early start today and with two relative unknowns taking on recent winners and most people's alternative to Ronnie starting his campaign this seems like a good opportunity to enhance some short odds. Ken Doherty (2/5) starts at 10am against Liang Wen Bo, Ronnie (1/10) at 2.30 against Liu Chuang, before Stephen Maguire (3/10) faces Anthony Hamilton at 7.00 while Ken will be finishing off. The latter two matches will then conclude tomorrow.
4.15 Punchestown Sher Beau 50/1 e/w (LOST +9.11 - yes one of those days! No more to say really!)
This is a difficult horse to pick. Fragile is an understatement! So much so that he now has his own stall in the field away from the other horses to protect against him catching anything! I have to confess I know the son of the owner of this horse, and yes that's always the way with Irish horses at Punchestown, but this is more a case of the fact I have followed the horse's progress. He was third in the John Durkan two years ago, and since then has struggled to be right, but his Grade 3 chase win in the Heavy at Navan last month saw him back fully fit and approaching his previosu form. Nothing more than small stakes each way but if he does run to potential he could get us some tasty palce money.
7.45 Barcelona v Man United Less than 2.5 goals 4/6 (WON +9.78 - could have been different if the buck-toothed diver had slotted his penalty, but otherwise it was a relatively comfortable result)
This might seem a strange bet for two of the more attacking sides in European football, but Barca have yet to hammer anyone at home in Europe this season. They saw off Schalke and Celtic 1-0 in the knock out rounds, and beat Rangers 2-0 in the final qualifying game. Their last two Primera Liga home games have finished 0-0 as well, as Frank Rijkaard's side are not firing on all cylinders. But surely United will take advantage I hear you cry? United won 2-0 in Lyon with a truly world class performance, but had drawn 1-1 in Lyon and Rome previously as well as a 1-0 win in Lisbon. Only the bizarre 4-2 win in Kiev has seen more than 2 goals from a United away game in Europe this season. And at home they have picked up the points but not with the ease they were a few months back - a 1-1 draw at Blackburn, lucky to get all 3 points v Arsenal and a 2-2 at Middlesbro suggest things are not quite full steam ahead at Old Traffford either. But then I'm not one to question Fergie. However, I dont see things being settled tonight and hence the total goals bet.
10am Doherty, O'Sullivan & Maguire Treble Evens (LOST+10.11 - out at first hurdle as Ken went down with barely a whimper to new Chinese sensation Liang Wenbo)
Early start today and with two relative unknowns taking on recent winners and most people's alternative to Ronnie starting his campaign this seems like a good opportunity to enhance some short odds. Ken Doherty (2/5) starts at 10am against Liang Wen Bo, Ronnie (1/10) at 2.30 against Liu Chuang, before Stephen Maguire (3/10) faces Anthony Hamilton at 7.00 while Ken will be finishing off. The latter two matches will then conclude tomorrow.
4.15 Punchestown Sher Beau 50/1 e/w (LOST +9.11 - yes one of those days! No more to say really!)
This is a difficult horse to pick. Fragile is an understatement! So much so that he now has his own stall in the field away from the other horses to protect against him catching anything! I have to confess I know the son of the owner of this horse, and yes that's always the way with Irish horses at Punchestown, but this is more a case of the fact I have followed the horse's progress. He was third in the John Durkan two years ago, and since then has struggled to be right, but his Grade 3 chase win in the Heavy at Navan last month saw him back fully fit and approaching his previosu form. Nothing more than small stakes each way but if he does run to potential he could get us some tasty palce money.
7.45 Barcelona v Man United Less than 2.5 goals 4/6 (WON +9.78 - could have been different if the buck-toothed diver had slotted his penalty, but otherwise it was a relatively comfortable result)
This might seem a strange bet for two of the more attacking sides in European football, but Barca have yet to hammer anyone at home in Europe this season. They saw off Schalke and Celtic 1-0 in the knock out rounds, and beat Rangers 2-0 in the final qualifying game. Their last two Primera Liga home games have finished 0-0 as well, as Frank Rijkaard's side are not firing on all cylinders. But surely United will take advantage I hear you cry? United won 2-0 in Lyon with a truly world class performance, but had drawn 1-1 in Lyon and Rome previously as well as a 1-0 win in Lisbon. Only the bizarre 4-2 win in Kiev has seen more than 2 goals from a United away game in Europe this season. And at home they have picked up the points but not with the ease they were a few months back - a 1-1 draw at Blackburn, lucky to get all 3 points v Arsenal and a 2-2 at Middlesbro suggest things are not quite full steam ahead at Old Traffford either. But then I'm not one to question Fergie. However, I dont see things being settled tonight and hence the total goals bet.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Racing
Quiet day today. Liverpool v Chelsea is too tough to call, and the snooker I'm happy just to collect when Mark Williams finished off this afternoon. No upsets yet at the Crucible although Stephen Hendry was made to really scrap and the Nugget gave Stuart Bingham a real scare coming back from 8-3 to 8-8 last night. Marco Fu has a potential upset in him as his form of laste has been decent and Ding has been prone to nerves previously. I can't back it, but it wouldn't surprise me.
7.45 Bath Tapas Lad e/w 9/1 (5th +11.11 - reverted to hold up tactics, but as the field fanned out he couldn't get round or through. When he finally found room up the inside he finished well but couldnt get to the leading bunch and was 2 lengths short at the line)
This colt reached a rating of 63 after winning a seller at Wolverhampton in January, and had found it tough going since. However, last time out he was back down to 55 and a change of tactics saw him stave off all bar one runner in a 10 runner handicap. On the official ratings he is the best weighted horse in the race and it shouldn't be overlooked that 5 of his 6 place efforts came when he was rated 55, one at 58 and his win at 57. His last run on turf in October was on GS and so I expect him to be in the mix again tonight.
7.45 Bath Tapas Lad e/w 9/1 (5th +11.11 - reverted to hold up tactics, but as the field fanned out he couldn't get round or through. When he finally found room up the inside he finished well but couldnt get to the leading bunch and was 2 lengths short at the line)
This colt reached a rating of 63 after winning a seller at Wolverhampton in January, and had found it tough going since. However, last time out he was back down to 55 and a change of tactics saw him stave off all bar one runner in a 10 runner handicap. On the official ratings he is the best weighted horse in the race and it shouldn't be overlooked that 5 of his 6 place efforts came when he was rated 55, one at 58 and his win at 57. His last run on turf in October was on GS and so I expect him to be in the mix again tonight.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Snooker
Well my first cricket match of the season is out of the way. A pleasant friendly against the local rivals. A respectable 18 for yours truly and one to the side of the head! Anyway lets hope it hasn't blurred my judgement today as we look to the Crucible...
2.30 Stephen Hendry to beat Mark Allen 10/3 (WON +11.20 - Allen gave Hendry the chances and despite a few poor safety shots, he largely took them. But Allen should have seen him off if he wasn't so heavy handed)
Hendry is 6-3 down after the first session, due largely to missing some relatively straightforward pots in the early stages. After taking the first frame 67-0 he then lost 4 consecutive frames, before sharing the final four. However, breaks of 110 and 93 in those final 4 frame showed he was starting to get his touch back, and if he keeps getting the ins he got yesterday he could still turn this around. A couple of early frames and that price will tumble.
7.00 Mark Williams -2 frames to beat Mark Davis 10/11 (WON +12.11 - 8-1 after the first session was quickly sewn up and Williams could provide an interesting second round opponent for Ronnie)
Mark Davis won just two knockout matches in 2006/7 and struggled through qualifying this year to make his first appearance in the knockout stages of a ranking tournament. And while Mark Williams hasn't been in his usual good form for much of this season he did look more like theold Williams we know in hislast outing at the Shanghai Masters. Somewhere near that form will see him ease through and so VCBet's offer of 10/11 giving Davis a 2 frame start seems good value to me.
2.30 Stephen Hendry to beat Mark Allen 10/3 (WON +11.20 - Allen gave Hendry the chances and despite a few poor safety shots, he largely took them. But Allen should have seen him off if he wasn't so heavy handed)
Hendry is 6-3 down after the first session, due largely to missing some relatively straightforward pots in the early stages. After taking the first frame 67-0 he then lost 4 consecutive frames, before sharing the final four. However, breaks of 110 and 93 in those final 4 frame showed he was starting to get his touch back, and if he keeps getting the ins he got yesterday he could still turn this around. A couple of early frames and that price will tumble.
7.00 Mark Williams -2 frames to beat Mark Davis 10/11 (WON +12.11 - 8-1 after the first session was quickly sewn up and Williams could provide an interesting second round opponent for Ronnie)
Mark Davis won just two knockout matches in 2006/7 and struggled through qualifying this year to make his first appearance in the knockout stages of a ranking tournament. And while Mark Williams hasn't been in his usual good form for much of this season he did look more like theold Williams we know in hislast outing at the Shanghai Masters. Somewhere near that form will see him ease through and so VCBet's offer of 10/11 giving Davis a 2 frame start seems good value to me.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Football, Cricket and Rugby League
A rare Sunday blog to coincide with the first new racecourse to open in the Uk for over 80 years. Finally Great Leighs comes into being, but as with the all-weather at Kempton, the first few races will be best watched to check on draw biases etc.
1.30 Newcastle Draw with Sunderland 5/2 (LOST +8.07 - too easy for King Kev's boys as the soft touch on the road Sunderland from earlier in the season meant Birmingham's hammering at Villa was the only glimmer of positivity)
Newcastle are one point from the magical 40 points and Sunderland will feel one more win will be enough to seal their safety, and so this isn't quite the crunch derby it might have been a couple of months ago. Newcastle are now unbeaten in 5, but Sunderland have won 3 of their last four and won at Fulham and Villa on their last two trips away from the Stadium of Light. November's match up saw bragging rights shared and I expect today's game to allow both sides to edge nearer to safety.
3.30 Mumbai to beat Bangalore 4/6 (LOST +7.07 - a tight game, but Bangalore's on 20/20 batsman, Mark Boucher hauled his side over the line with two balls to spare)
Their pasting in the opening game highlighted Bangalore have made the mistake of picking world class test cricketers, but not necessarily star 20/20 players. The Mumbai crowd will be disappointed if Sachin doesnt come through a fitness test, but they should still have enough to register their first win with Jayasuriya and Pollock looking like potential stars.
5.35 Wakefield to beat Salford 4/5 (WON +7.87 - 22-2 after 25 minutes was game over, and the final score of 38-8 was kind on Salford. The gulf in class showed)
I don't know who the rugby league odds compiler is at William Hills, but either he knows something noone else knows, or his job could be under pressure at 7.30pm tonight! He has Super League Wakefield at 4/5 to turn over National League One side Salford. The next closest price is 2/7 with Ladbrokes!!! Get on!!!
1.30 Newcastle Draw with Sunderland 5/2 (LOST +8.07 - too easy for King Kev's boys as the soft touch on the road Sunderland from earlier in the season meant Birmingham's hammering at Villa was the only glimmer of positivity)
Newcastle are one point from the magical 40 points and Sunderland will feel one more win will be enough to seal their safety, and so this isn't quite the crunch derby it might have been a couple of months ago. Newcastle are now unbeaten in 5, but Sunderland have won 3 of their last four and won at Fulham and Villa on their last two trips away from the Stadium of Light. November's match up saw bragging rights shared and I expect today's game to allow both sides to edge nearer to safety.
3.30 Mumbai to beat Bangalore 4/6 (LOST +7.07 - a tight game, but Bangalore's on 20/20 batsman, Mark Boucher hauled his side over the line with two balls to spare)
Their pasting in the opening game highlighted Bangalore have made the mistake of picking world class test cricketers, but not necessarily star 20/20 players. The Mumbai crowd will be disappointed if Sachin doesnt come through a fitness test, but they should still have enough to register their first win with Jayasuriya and Pollock looking like potential stars.
5.35 Wakefield to beat Salford 4/5 (WON +7.87 - 22-2 after 25 minutes was game over, and the final score of 38-8 was kind on Salford. The gulf in class showed)
I don't know who the rugby league odds compiler is at William Hills, but either he knows something noone else knows, or his job could be under pressure at 7.30pm tonight! He has Super League Wakefield at 4/5 to turn over National League One side Salford. The next closest price is 2/7 with Ladbrokes!!! Get on!!!
Friday, April 18, 2008
Football
Well what a night. Aside from the two tasy wins we had, the darts was just tremendous. Phil Taylor set a new record 3-dart average, but the whole event is just awesome. I hope there were snooker people watching as the contrast between these titans of the tungsten and the bores of the baize could not be more pronounced with the World Championships starting in Sheffield tomorrow. 20 years ago, people could name half a dozen snooker players without a problem, and a quick survey in the office here showed they can still real those names off now. But that is because there were characters then - Higgins, White, Thorburn, Reardon, Werbenuik, Taylor, Thorne, even Steve Davis looked interesting compared to some of today's players. Then Stephen Hendry came along, swept all before him, and since then all bar one player have copied his dour, dull, practice focussed character and snooker has lost its appeal to the general public. The irony being that the one character left, Ronnie O'Sullivan, is the most talented player by a long way, but snooker needs more characters if it is to regain its public interest. Meanwhile, the characters of Wayne Mardle, Peter Manley, Ady Lewis, and others, allied to the party atmosphere in the crowd means darts goes from strength to strength playing bigger and bigger arenas. We'll be back again next year.
I didn't blog it here, but I did have the winner of the Craven stakes yesterday. How the second placed Raven's Pass was second favourite for the Derby I don't know, as I cant see him staying much more than this trip, and hence why I opposed him yesterday, with his three previous wins coming at 7f. A rarity for racing fans tonight - evening jumps at Cheltenham.
6.45 Cheltenham Ballyfitz 3/1 (LOST +7.82 - looked like the winner until Mobaasher came from nowhere on the run-in)
Ballyfitz has been improving all season under Nigel Twiston-Davies and showed he handled Cheltenham with his win in the Pertemps Final, staying on strongly up the hill. He then wasn't disgraced stepping up to the Grade 2 Liverpool Hurdle, finishing a 12 lengths 5th behind such luminaries as Blazing Bailey, Inglis Drever and Lough Derg. Those last two runs look to be good enough to hold anything, despite a 9lb turnaround with Mobaasher who he beat by 5.5 lengths in the Pertemps.
7.45 Burton to beat Stevenage 5/4 (WON +9.07 - tough going into the wind in the first half, but finished the job in style in the second half running out 3-0 victors)
A win tonight for either of these two teams will see them go a long way to securing a playoff place at the expense of the other team. And its Burton I expect to move 4 points clear of Stevenage with 2 games to play. Only the top 2 sides have won more home games than the Brewers this season and they have won 8 of their last 10 matches at the Pirelli Stadium. Those top tow sides, Aldershot and Torquay, have both been turned over at Burton too. A month ago Stevenage looked playoff certainties but they have since lost 4 of their last 6 games, tellingly including home defeats to other playoff hopefuls Exeter and Torquay, and are yet to take any points home from trips to other top 6 sides. Tonight is their last chance to do so, but Burton's home record means I don't see that happening.
I didn't blog it here, but I did have the winner of the Craven stakes yesterday. How the second placed Raven's Pass was second favourite for the Derby I don't know, as I cant see him staying much more than this trip, and hence why I opposed him yesterday, with his three previous wins coming at 7f. A rarity for racing fans tonight - evening jumps at Cheltenham.
6.45 Cheltenham Ballyfitz 3/1 (LOST +7.82 - looked like the winner until Mobaasher came from nowhere on the run-in)
Ballyfitz has been improving all season under Nigel Twiston-Davies and showed he handled Cheltenham with his win in the Pertemps Final, staying on strongly up the hill. He then wasn't disgraced stepping up to the Grade 2 Liverpool Hurdle, finishing a 12 lengths 5th behind such luminaries as Blazing Bailey, Inglis Drever and Lough Derg. Those last two runs look to be good enough to hold anything, despite a 9lb turnaround with Mobaasher who he beat by 5.5 lengths in the Pertemps.
7.45 Burton to beat Stevenage 5/4 (WON +9.07 - tough going into the wind in the first half, but finished the job in style in the second half running out 3-0 victors)
A win tonight for either of these two teams will see them go a long way to securing a playoff place at the expense of the other team. And its Burton I expect to move 4 points clear of Stevenage with 2 games to play. Only the top 2 sides have won more home games than the Brewers this season and they have won 8 of their last 10 matches at the Pirelli Stadium. Those top tow sides, Aldershot and Torquay, have both been turned over at Burton too. A month ago Stevenage looked playoff certainties but they have since lost 4 of their last 6 games, tellingly including home defeats to other playoff hopefuls Exeter and Torquay, and are yet to take any points home from trips to other top 6 sides. Tonight is their last chance to do so, but Burton's home record means I don't see that happening.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Darts
Tonight's football could have been interesting, but with both teams 5 points off their holy grail with 4 games to go, its all a bit after the Lord Mayor's show. The golf is to be avoided this week too as its best to assess what effect Augusta has had on certain players and take a week off. But it wouldn't be Thursday without darts and I am fortunate enough to be able to be at Wembley Arena in person tonight, and all 8 players still have a chance of making the top 4 so there's plenty to play for. I was given a tip last week by a former sponsor of James Wade who had backstage access before matches, that if you meet the players beforehand, you get a much better idea of potential winners as some like the occasional pint or two. There is not quite enough money in darts betting for bookmakers to use that information to make much money, but its probably worth watching the prices on Betfair and follow the money if there's a run on any particular player.
8.30 Wade to beat Manley 8-6 13/2 (WON +7.07 - A classic late smash and grab from Wadey taking the last two legs to steal the points and secure his place in the playoffs)
James Wade needs to make sure he wins his last three matches to finish top of the table and perhaps set up a Taylor v Barney semi. And after losing to Taylor a month ago he has stormed back with an 8-4, and 8-1 and an 8-5 over Wayne Mardle last week having been 4-0 down. Manley is currently fourth but has a horrible run-in with Wade, the resurgent Ady Lewis and Taylor left, so he will see tonight as points he has to fight tooth and nail for. But Wadey beat him 8-5 last time out, and with One Dart throwing first he may get one leg closer, but that will be it. The handicappers have it right for me at +2.5 legs, so I'll go for the exact score of 8-6. Most bookies are offering 4/1, but Bet365 are a standout 13/2.
9.50 Taylor -4 legs to beat Part 7/4 (WON +8.82 - What a high quality match! When Part won the first two legs it looked like an upset may be on the cards, but it only spurred Phil on - he ended up posting a record 3-dart average of 111.74. Part lost 8-3 having posted a 3-dart average 7 points more than anyone else on the night, but was still 8 behind the Power!)
Since those 3 losses in the first four weeks, the old Phil Taylor has been back. He has lost only 22 legs in his 7 legs since then, while John Part is struggling to keep pace and fins himself bottom of the table after an 8-2 pasting by Ady Lewis last week. I don't expect the Power to ease up at all, and expect another 8-2 or 8-3. The 3.5 leg handicap at odds on is not worth playing when, for giving up just one leg, you can have 7/4 from Skybet.
8.30 Wade to beat Manley 8-6 13/2 (WON +7.07 - A classic late smash and grab from Wadey taking the last two legs to steal the points and secure his place in the playoffs)
James Wade needs to make sure he wins his last three matches to finish top of the table and perhaps set up a Taylor v Barney semi. And after losing to Taylor a month ago he has stormed back with an 8-4, and 8-1 and an 8-5 over Wayne Mardle last week having been 4-0 down. Manley is currently fourth but has a horrible run-in with Wade, the resurgent Ady Lewis and Taylor left, so he will see tonight as points he has to fight tooth and nail for. But Wadey beat him 8-5 last time out, and with One Dart throwing first he may get one leg closer, but that will be it. The handicappers have it right for me at +2.5 legs, so I'll go for the exact score of 8-6. Most bookies are offering 4/1, but Bet365 are a standout 13/2.
9.50 Taylor -4 legs to beat Part 7/4 (WON +8.82 - What a high quality match! When Part won the first two legs it looked like an upset may be on the cards, but it only spurred Phil on - he ended up posting a record 3-dart average of 111.74. Part lost 8-3 having posted a 3-dart average 7 points more than anyone else on the night, but was still 8 behind the Power!)
Since those 3 losses in the first four weeks, the old Phil Taylor has been back. He has lost only 22 legs in his 7 legs since then, while John Part is struggling to keep pace and fins himself bottom of the table after an 8-2 pasting by Ady Lewis last week. I don't expect the Power to ease up at all, and expect another 8-2 or 8-3. The 3.5 leg handicap at odds on is not worth playing when, for giving up just one leg, you can have 7/4 from Skybet.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Racing and Football
Strange week for football this week with Chelsea palying Monday and Thursday night, and tonight we have a midweek Old Firm game. Rangers can't quite win the league tonight in their rival's back yard, but anything but defeat will mean its as good as over in Scotland and they can focus on the UEFA Cup. Finally there's some racing worth looking at again today. Some competitive stuff as Cheltenham rounds up the jump season, but I'll be looking East at Newmarket.
2.35 Newmarket Art Connoisseur 6/4 (WON +1.57 - another impressive performance and will surely be lined up for a crack at one of the Royal Ascot sprints after this)
Looked a cut above in his maiden at Leicester, despite running green, winning by 3 1/4 lengths and beating the only other previous runner by a further head. That horse's previous fourth is proving to be good form, so this win should prove even better. The dangerous outsider is Rayvin Mad, with Peter Chapple-Hyam's horses flying at the moment
7.45 Rangers to win to nil 5/1 (LOST +0.57 - I should probably add Celtic to Tim Henman and Colin Montgomerie to my list of not to bet on. Or just give in to the fact that they are the luckiest side in the history of the world ever!)
Even if Celtic were to beat Rangers tonight and in 10 days time, if Rangers win their games in hand to Motherwell and St Mirren, they will still be four points clear with four to play, so you see the task Celtic have. But Walter Smith has been there, seen it and done it many times before. Wee Gordon Strachan (or Chesney when he moonlights on Corrie) had a decent record in Old Firm games until Walter came along and not only have Rangers won four in a row now, Celtic haven't even scored. And it is that fact that Smith has built this latest Rangers side on. No longer can they pay to attract the creative talents of Gascoigne, Kanchelskis, Laudrup etc, but they can make themselves hard to beat and that has been eveident recently. They have kept clean sheets in four of their last four matches including two versus Sporting Lisbon and one at home to Celtic. The away game at Dundee United saw some players rested between the two UEFA Cup ties. They also beat Werder Bremen, second only to Bayern in Germany, 2-1 on aggregate in the previous round. So combine Walter's Old Firm record, this steely defence, and the fact Celtic have failed to score in four of their last six games - two of which were at home to Motherwell and Dundee United - and you can see how the Teddy Bears will be confident of another clean sheet and taking the points back from the bandit country of East Glasgow.
2.35 Newmarket Art Connoisseur 6/4 (WON +1.57 - another impressive performance and will surely be lined up for a crack at one of the Royal Ascot sprints after this)
Looked a cut above in his maiden at Leicester, despite running green, winning by 3 1/4 lengths and beating the only other previous runner by a further head. That horse's previous fourth is proving to be good form, so this win should prove even better. The dangerous outsider is Rayvin Mad, with Peter Chapple-Hyam's horses flying at the moment
7.45 Rangers to win to nil 5/1 (LOST +0.57 - I should probably add Celtic to Tim Henman and Colin Montgomerie to my list of not to bet on. Or just give in to the fact that they are the luckiest side in the history of the world ever!)
Even if Celtic were to beat Rangers tonight and in 10 days time, if Rangers win their games in hand to Motherwell and St Mirren, they will still be four points clear with four to play, so you see the task Celtic have. But Walter Smith has been there, seen it and done it many times before. Wee Gordon Strachan (or Chesney when he moonlights on Corrie) had a decent record in Old Firm games until Walter came along and not only have Rangers won four in a row now, Celtic haven't even scored. And it is that fact that Smith has built this latest Rangers side on. No longer can they pay to attract the creative talents of Gascoigne, Kanchelskis, Laudrup etc, but they can make themselves hard to beat and that has been eveident recently. They have kept clean sheets in four of their last four matches including two versus Sporting Lisbon and one at home to Celtic. The away game at Dundee United saw some players rested between the two UEFA Cup ties. They also beat Werder Bremen, second only to Bayern in Germany, 2-1 on aggregate in the previous round. So combine Walter's Old Firm record, this steely defence, and the fact Celtic have failed to score in four of their last six games - two of which were at home to Motherwell and Dundee United - and you can see how the Teddy Bears will be confident of another clean sheet and taking the points back from the bandit country of East Glasgow.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Football
Welcome back after the long weekend. Had a great day at Ascot on Friday courtesy of those splendid chaps at Spreadex (http://www.spreadex.com/). The head horse racing trader is a good guy, and I think he was rather impressed when we extracted the 33/1 winner of the big handicap, with Tom Scudamore giving Mamlook a terrific ride to present him at exactly the right moment. Added to my friend picking the unraced winner of the novice hurdle and I may now have a mark or two against my account!
Quiet day today - can't see too much to take my fancy, so will be doing some work ahead of one of my favourite betting events of the year, the World Championship Snooker, which starts on Saturday.
7.45 Torquay to beat Northwich 8/11 (WON +0.07 - a 25-yard curler from Chris Zebroski was enough to settle this one in our favour)
With four games to go, its very tight at the bottom of the Conference with Northwich, Weymouth and Halifax on 38 points, Farsley on 39 and Altrincham 40, although the latter have played two games more. Two of those four will go down, and two months ago the other four would have written off Northwich. But then they showed table-topping form, taking 16 points from 8 games, before their unbeaten run ended at Exeter on Saturday. However, you need to look at that run more closely. They played noone in the top 6, drew with the 7th and 8th placed sides, and none of the other 6 were in the top half. And after Saturday's 10 hour round trip, the same journey again today won't be one the Vics will relish. Torquay are 2nd - too far behind champions elect Aldershot, but a win tonight will as good as secure second spot, taking them 8 points clear of Cambridge in 3rd, and home advantage for the second leg of the playoffs. The bookmakers are spread across prices, with Betfred at 8/15, but the value is actually on the High Street today with Corals and Hills at 8/11.
Quiet day today - can't see too much to take my fancy, so will be doing some work ahead of one of my favourite betting events of the year, the World Championship Snooker, which starts on Saturday.
7.45 Torquay to beat Northwich 8/11 (WON +0.07 - a 25-yard curler from Chris Zebroski was enough to settle this one in our favour)
With four games to go, its very tight at the bottom of the Conference with Northwich, Weymouth and Halifax on 38 points, Farsley on 39 and Altrincham 40, although the latter have played two games more. Two of those four will go down, and two months ago the other four would have written off Northwich. But then they showed table-topping form, taking 16 points from 8 games, before their unbeaten run ended at Exeter on Saturday. However, you need to look at that run more closely. They played noone in the top 6, drew with the 7th and 8th placed sides, and none of the other 6 were in the top half. And after Saturday's 10 hour round trip, the same journey again today won't be one the Vics will relish. Torquay are 2nd - too far behind champions elect Aldershot, but a win tonight will as good as secure second spot, taking them 8 points clear of Cambridge in 3rd, and home advantage for the second leg of the playoffs. The bookmakers are spread across prices, with Betfred at 8/15, but the value is actually on the High Street today with Corals and Hills at 8/11.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Racing, Darts and the Masters
It seems a few of you got a bit hot under the collar about my comments about Wenger. I'm not saying he's any better or worse than Ferguson, Mourinho et al, but he is far too predictable. Oh, and he's French, of course - surely at some point soon he'll be going on strike?
And I hope you've all collected on your Derby relegation bets as they may still have a chance of staying up if the arrests of the porn barons at Birmingham leads to them getting demoted for financial irregularities. Derby would then only have to win the last five games and hope Bolton dont get another point!
5.15 Fontwell Midnight Ocean e/w 15/2 (NON RUNNER)
Quite an open handicap this and with 18 runners we get the full 1/4 odds for the first four, and so the one that leaps out is Midnight Ocean. Since going handicapping she has placed both times, with the form of the 2.5 lengths second to Lily tiger being franked by the winner going up 5lbs and winning by 6 lengths next time out. The handicapper has not moved this mare up at all for either that second or the subsequent third, and so I expect her to be in the frame again.
7.35 Wade & Taylor Double 7/5 (WON +3.34 - This looked like falling at the first hurdle as Wadye went 4-0 down, but lifted his average to over 101 and won 8-5. Taylor was never in doubt though after a 12-darter in the first leg. He is on fire!)
A table-toppers double, and last week I wouldn't have included James Wade but with Wayne Mardle's revival halted by John Part last week and Wadey in good form destroying an, admittedly ill, Ady Lewis, I expect Wadey to go better than the draw that started Mardle's recent run and secure his place in the semi-finals.
And doesn't it seem a long time ago that we were doubting the Power after three losses in his first four matches, only for him to whitewash Wayne Mardle and then follow up with an 8-3 victory over Barney. Well its the rematch tonight and since those first 4 matches Taylor has only lost 20 legs in 7 matches. And Raymond has not been fluent this season yet either, evidenced by losses to Mardle and Manley in recent weeks. So he may get closer to Phil than last time, but not close enough.
8.15 Part to beat Lewis 7/5 (LOST +2.34 - This was the Lewis that could beat the best if he turned it in every week, but thats his problem)
Darth Maple has found his World Champion form in the last couple of weeks, beating Mardle and Manley, and going down narrowly to Barney, while Lewis clearly wasn't well when he returned from illness last week. That will certainly have restricted his practice time this week again, even if physically he has fully recovered, and Part will certainly be looking to take advantage and keep himself in the hunt for a semi-final spot, ahead of a tough run-in.
9.00 Manley Draw with Jenkins 9/2 (LOST +1.34 - at 4-4 this was looking good, but as ever Manley never let up and an average of 102.96 was the second best of the whole night)
Peter Manley has been the draw specialist this season with 4 from 10, while Jenkins has shared the points twice too - one of which was with Manley. Both have 8 points currently with Jenkins ahead by 1 leg on leg difference, so there really isn't much between these guys, so take advantage of a decent priced darts bet.
THE MASTERS
Well it really is difficult to look beyond Tiger to win this, and even if you do noone jumps out at you. I liked the chances of Rory Sabbatini and then he went and won the Par 3 competition yesterday, thus ruling him out of my considerations. So we need to look at alternative markets.
Luke Donald Top European e/w 8/1 (1/5 1-2-3-4) (LOST +0.34 - Luke missed the cut by one stroke)
Barring a surprise performance from one of the old timers, but they rarely last four days round Augusta these days, or Ian Poulter finally walking the walk rather than talking the talk, the winner of this only comes from 6 players for me - Harrington, Rose, Donald, Stenson, Garcia, and Casey. And with Sergio's putting its probably only 5. Donald's US education has paid off on the US Tour and with a 3rd on debut and a 10th last year he will be feeling good about Augusta when he stands on the first tee. So far his genuine challenge for a major has been blocked by one poor round. If he can keep that out of his locker, and Tiger has an off week, he can fulfil the promise, but all we need here is to beat the other Europeans. And he has had a second and a third from 5 starts on Tour this year. Pod is the obvious challenger with two top tens and two further top twenty finishes in eight visits to Augusta, but I cant see why he should be half the price of Donald. Justin Rose will take a few people's fancy after just falling short last year and making the cut on all three visits, but he is yet to make a top 10 this year. Stenson is reliable and may get a place in this market, while Sergio has missed the cut twice in the last three years. Paul Casey missed the cut in 2005 but finished 6th and 10th either side of that, so if he starts well he will be a good one to be on, but wait and see. So for me it has to be Donald.
JB Holmes top Debutant e/w 10/1 (1/5 1-2-3-4) (LOST -0.66 - Three solid rounds were let down by a 76 on Day four, when another 72 would have seen us take the place money)
You could be forgiven for never having heard of JB Holmes as he finished last season ranked 208 in the world. However, this season he is already up to 55 having won the FBR Open and ranking 27th in average scoring on the US Tour - helped by an average drive of 307.7 yards, 2nd to Bubba Watson. He then uses this to his advantage and ranks 7th in birdies from greens hit in regulation, and 3rd in going for the green to leave an eagle putt. All very useful qualitities round Augusta, and one I hope stands us in good stead. The alternative for me is Daniel Chopra, who won the Mercedes-Benz Champs, but I'm not sure his driving will hold up, so its JB for me.
And I hope you've all collected on your Derby relegation bets as they may still have a chance of staying up if the arrests of the porn barons at Birmingham leads to them getting demoted for financial irregularities. Derby would then only have to win the last five games and hope Bolton dont get another point!
5.15 Fontwell Midnight Ocean e/w 15/2 (NON RUNNER)
Quite an open handicap this and with 18 runners we get the full 1/4 odds for the first four, and so the one that leaps out is Midnight Ocean. Since going handicapping she has placed both times, with the form of the 2.5 lengths second to Lily tiger being franked by the winner going up 5lbs and winning by 6 lengths next time out. The handicapper has not moved this mare up at all for either that second or the subsequent third, and so I expect her to be in the frame again.
7.35 Wade & Taylor Double 7/5 (WON +3.34 - This looked like falling at the first hurdle as Wadye went 4-0 down, but lifted his average to over 101 and won 8-5. Taylor was never in doubt though after a 12-darter in the first leg. He is on fire!)
A table-toppers double, and last week I wouldn't have included James Wade but with Wayne Mardle's revival halted by John Part last week and Wadey in good form destroying an, admittedly ill, Ady Lewis, I expect Wadey to go better than the draw that started Mardle's recent run and secure his place in the semi-finals.
And doesn't it seem a long time ago that we were doubting the Power after three losses in his first four matches, only for him to whitewash Wayne Mardle and then follow up with an 8-3 victory over Barney. Well its the rematch tonight and since those first 4 matches Taylor has only lost 20 legs in 7 matches. And Raymond has not been fluent this season yet either, evidenced by losses to Mardle and Manley in recent weeks. So he may get closer to Phil than last time, but not close enough.
8.15 Part to beat Lewis 7/5 (LOST +2.34 - This was the Lewis that could beat the best if he turned it in every week, but thats his problem)
Darth Maple has found his World Champion form in the last couple of weeks, beating Mardle and Manley, and going down narrowly to Barney, while Lewis clearly wasn't well when he returned from illness last week. That will certainly have restricted his practice time this week again, even if physically he has fully recovered, and Part will certainly be looking to take advantage and keep himself in the hunt for a semi-final spot, ahead of a tough run-in.
9.00 Manley Draw with Jenkins 9/2 (LOST +1.34 - at 4-4 this was looking good, but as ever Manley never let up and an average of 102.96 was the second best of the whole night)
Peter Manley has been the draw specialist this season with 4 from 10, while Jenkins has shared the points twice too - one of which was with Manley. Both have 8 points currently with Jenkins ahead by 1 leg on leg difference, so there really isn't much between these guys, so take advantage of a decent priced darts bet.
THE MASTERS
Well it really is difficult to look beyond Tiger to win this, and even if you do noone jumps out at you. I liked the chances of Rory Sabbatini and then he went and won the Par 3 competition yesterday, thus ruling him out of my considerations. So we need to look at alternative markets.
Luke Donald Top European e/w 8/1 (1/5 1-2-3-4) (LOST +0.34 - Luke missed the cut by one stroke)
Barring a surprise performance from one of the old timers, but they rarely last four days round Augusta these days, or Ian Poulter finally walking the walk rather than talking the talk, the winner of this only comes from 6 players for me - Harrington, Rose, Donald, Stenson, Garcia, and Casey. And with Sergio's putting its probably only 5. Donald's US education has paid off on the US Tour and with a 3rd on debut and a 10th last year he will be feeling good about Augusta when he stands on the first tee. So far his genuine challenge for a major has been blocked by one poor round. If he can keep that out of his locker, and Tiger has an off week, he can fulfil the promise, but all we need here is to beat the other Europeans. And he has had a second and a third from 5 starts on Tour this year. Pod is the obvious challenger with two top tens and two further top twenty finishes in eight visits to Augusta, but I cant see why he should be half the price of Donald. Justin Rose will take a few people's fancy after just falling short last year and making the cut on all three visits, but he is yet to make a top 10 this year. Stenson is reliable and may get a place in this market, while Sergio has missed the cut twice in the last three years. Paul Casey missed the cut in 2005 but finished 6th and 10th either side of that, so if he starts well he will be a good one to be on, but wait and see. So for me it has to be Donald.
JB Holmes top Debutant e/w 10/1 (1/5 1-2-3-4) (LOST -0.66 - Three solid rounds were let down by a 76 on Day four, when another 72 would have seen us take the place money)
You could be forgiven for never having heard of JB Holmes as he finished last season ranked 208 in the world. However, this season he is already up to 55 having won the FBR Open and ranking 27th in average scoring on the US Tour - helped by an average drive of 307.7 yards, 2nd to Bubba Watson. He then uses this to his advantage and ranks 7th in birdies from greens hit in regulation, and 3rd in going for the green to leave an eagle putt. All very useful qualitities round Augusta, and one I hope stands us in good stead. The alternative for me is Daniel Chopra, who won the Mercedes-Benz Champs, but I'm not sure his driving will hold up, so its JB for me.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Racing and Football
I don't generally write too many views in this first bit, but is anyone else had quite enough of Arsene Wenger blaming everyone bar his own team's shortcomings for their failure to win a trophy yet again? Last week he was fuming because he claimed, and rightfully so, Arsenal should have had a penalty for the foul by Kuyt. So then when the same occurs this week, he claims it is a gift. At least be consistent Arsene! Did he expect the referee to think "Well they didnt get that one last week, so I'll make a wrong decision here just to equal things up"? Mr Wenger you knew what your side had to do at the start of last night and again at half-time. Maybe you should speak to Mr Adebayor and ask him why he failed to even hit the target when presented with a goden chance instead of trying to blame a ref who I thought had a very good game last night - and thats praise indeed from me!
3.40 Bath Ryan's Future 10/3 (WON +0.53 - Won by a length and a half and quite comfortably in the end at 11/4. Hope you took the early price!)
This 8 year old has shown he still has it over 10f through the winter on the all weather and ran a good race when going down by a head at Nottingham last week, and looks the one of the market leaders who is most effective at this trip. Merrymadcap is yet to be seen over more than 1m1f and it is not obvious he steps up, while Mandalay Prince looks more effective over 1m4f+. So go with the in form horse proven over the trip.
7.45 Man Utd & Barcelona Double 38/27 (WON +1.94 - Two one-nils were enough, but I was slightly worried with no Ronaldo or Rooney in the squad and when Roma got that penalty!)
The headline stories for tonight's tie at Old Trafford have been around Ferdinand and Vidic not being fit, but it now seems like Rio might make it. But its not like the replacemen options of Pique or Neville are wet behind the ears, or that it will affect the performances of Rooney and Ronaldo, who must have been causing Roman defenders nightmares since last Tuesday. And we all know United's strength is in playing attacking football and scoring goals. However it is also worth noting Roma (still without Totti of course) have not exactly been pillaging results away from home as Julius Caesar once did. In their last 7 Serie A games they have won only one, drawn three and lost three - two to teams in the bottom half of the division. At 2-0 down they know they have to score three so will come out guns blazing but risk allowing the United counter attack machine to raid, which I expect them to do and win both legs at 4/6.
Barca put in a good performance at Schalke in the first leg to essentially finish this tie - Barca's home record is 13-1-2 in La Liga and Schalke are not Real or Vilarreal. On the road lately they have thrown points away, and Rijkaard would hence have been happy with the clean sheet in Germany, but like United, they can score almost at will. They have averaged two goals a game for their last 13 games in all competitions, and 12 in 5 at the Nou Camp. Schalke meanwhile lost in Porto in the second leg of the last round, going through on penalties eventually, and have not won an away game against a side in the top half of the Bundesliga all season. Expect Barca to also win both legs at 4/9 and set up the 'neutral's final' with United.
3.40 Bath Ryan's Future 10/3 (WON +0.53 - Won by a length and a half and quite comfortably in the end at 11/4. Hope you took the early price!)
This 8 year old has shown he still has it over 10f through the winter on the all weather and ran a good race when going down by a head at Nottingham last week, and looks the one of the market leaders who is most effective at this trip. Merrymadcap is yet to be seen over more than 1m1f and it is not obvious he steps up, while Mandalay Prince looks more effective over 1m4f+. So go with the in form horse proven over the trip.
7.45 Man Utd & Barcelona Double 38/27 (WON +1.94 - Two one-nils were enough, but I was slightly worried with no Ronaldo or Rooney in the squad and when Roma got that penalty!)
The headline stories for tonight's tie at Old Trafford have been around Ferdinand and Vidic not being fit, but it now seems like Rio might make it. But its not like the replacemen options of Pique or Neville are wet behind the ears, or that it will affect the performances of Rooney and Ronaldo, who must have been causing Roman defenders nightmares since last Tuesday. And we all know United's strength is in playing attacking football and scoring goals. However it is also worth noting Roma (still without Totti of course) have not exactly been pillaging results away from home as Julius Caesar once did. In their last 7 Serie A games they have won only one, drawn three and lost three - two to teams in the bottom half of the division. At 2-0 down they know they have to score three so will come out guns blazing but risk allowing the United counter attack machine to raid, which I expect them to do and win both legs at 4/6.
Barca put in a good performance at Schalke in the first leg to essentially finish this tie - Barca's home record is 13-1-2 in La Liga and Schalke are not Real or Vilarreal. On the road lately they have thrown points away, and Rijkaard would hence have been happy with the clean sheet in Germany, but like United, they can score almost at will. They have averaged two goals a game for their last 13 games in all competitions, and 12 in 5 at the Nou Camp. Schalke meanwhile lost in Porto in the second leg of the last round, going through on penalties eventually, and have not won an away game against a side in the top half of the Bundesliga all season. Expect Barca to also win both legs at 4/9 and set up the 'neutral's final' with United.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Football
Steady first week this month but we need to get back in the black. A bit more football around tonight of course, so we'll see what we can pick up, but one winning bet a day is better than a handful of losers. Don't forget your Masters homework tonight!
7.45 Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal 11/2 (LOST 4-2 -2.80 - What a game! Whatever you may think about the 'Big 4' and the Champions League, when they meet in that competition you get the best games. I'm just surprised you can't yet buy Arsene Wenger endorsed toys for your children to throw out the pram!)
Its amazing how often when you get this type of run of three games between two teams, there ends up with a symmetry about the results. Often by way of one win for each team and a draw. But with two 1-1 draws so far, in games of largely differing players, quality and pace, who would bet against another tonight? Particularly when the other league game this season was 1-1 too. Arsenal on paper are probably slightly the better side, but haven't been 100% since that night in Milan. But Liverpool have a thing about the Champions League and are at home. Gun to head, I think Liverpool will get through, but extra time and or penalties may just add to the drama. I wouldn't put anyone off taking Bet365's 22/1 about the Reds winning on penalties, but I'll be prudent and stick with the 1-1 draw.
7.45 Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal 11/2 (LOST 4-2 -2.80 - What a game! Whatever you may think about the 'Big 4' and the Champions League, when they meet in that competition you get the best games. I'm just surprised you can't yet buy Arsene Wenger endorsed toys for your children to throw out the pram!)
Its amazing how often when you get this type of run of three games between two teams, there ends up with a symmetry about the results. Often by way of one win for each team and a draw. But with two 1-1 draws so far, in games of largely differing players, quality and pace, who would bet against another tonight? Particularly when the other league game this season was 1-1 too. Arsenal on paper are probably slightly the better side, but haven't been 100% since that night in Milan. But Liverpool have a thing about the Champions League and are at home. Gun to head, I think Liverpool will get through, but extra time and or penalties may just add to the drama. I wouldn't put anyone off taking Bet365's 22/1 about the Reds winning on penalties, but I'll be prudent and stick with the 1-1 draw.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Football
Hope you had something in the National. It is becoming easier to read now, witnessed by the positions in the market of the first six, but picking the actual winner still eludes me! Everton kept themselves in the hunt for fourth spot and our bet stays alive, and the Barnsley relegation bet improved despite the Tykes not playing in League action. However, if their centre forward continues to finish like he did yesterday they will be lucky to score again all season!
7.45 Aberdeen to beat Falkirk 10/11 (WON 2-1 -1.80 - Aberdeen made the top 6 split with a solid victory, but how that last goal went in from that angle I've no idea!)
This is a straight playoff to get into the Top 6 before the Scottish League splits. Currently Falkirk hold that spot and a draw will keep them there but Aberdeen are a better side than their league position currently tells and recent form is a better judge for me. Their only defeat in their last seven games was away at Rangers and includes a win at Celtic after holding the Tims to a 1-1 draw at home. And that 1-1 draw is part of a 5 game unbeaten home run in all competitions, including a 2-2 first leg draw with Bayern Munich in the UEFA Cup. Pittodrie is never a nice place to go, even less so in this weather, so going there when having failed to score in 6 of your last 8 league games is even less of a proposition. I don't expect a game for the purists but expect the locals to go home warmed by three points.
7.45 Aberdeen to beat Falkirk 10/11 (WON 2-1 -1.80 - Aberdeen made the top 6 split with a solid victory, but how that last goal went in from that angle I've no idea!)
This is a straight playoff to get into the Top 6 before the Scottish League splits. Currently Falkirk hold that spot and a draw will keep them there but Aberdeen are a better side than their league position currently tells and recent form is a better judge for me. Their only defeat in their last seven games was away at Rangers and includes a win at Celtic after holding the Tims to a 1-1 draw at home. And that 1-1 draw is part of a 5 game unbeaten home run in all competitions, including a 2-2 first leg draw with Bayern Munich in the UEFA Cup. Pittodrie is never a nice place to go, even less so in this weather, so going there when having failed to score in 6 of your last 8 league games is even less of a proposition. I don't expect a game for the purists but expect the locals to go home warmed by three points.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Racing
Back in the red - if only I'd included laying Kauto in the tips! Back to the coal face today though...
4.40 Lingfield Note Perfect 9/4 (LOST -3.65 - Didnt really stay the trip and Dale Gibson picked the wrong horse it seemed!!)
Three runs at Southwell previously have yielded 3rd, 1st and 3rd. Today he carries only 1lb more than his win and Dale Gibson has chosen this over Mick Easterby's other runner. Bonny's Babe is the only other winner over this trip, but is yet to show any form on the all-weather.
8.00 Bradford -4pts to beat Hull 10/11 (WON 24-8 -2.71 - Close first half but the class told in the second half)
Bradford have two trips to Hull in consecutive weekends and if you take the raw stats of their road trips this season, you'd be forgiven for thinking they might struggle to play anywhere outside of Bradford - they have lost three of their four away games and won by just 2 points to Les Catalans. But that's a clue here. Catalans have been much improved this season, particularly at home, and the Bulls have also lost at Leeds and Wigan - hardly bad results. But the tougher away games are out the way now and Hull are a different proposition. They haven't won for 3 matches now, and their average points difference at home is -8. Bradford are a better than average Super League side so a 4 point handicap seems generous to the visitors.
4.40 Lingfield Note Perfect 9/4 (LOST -3.65 - Didnt really stay the trip and Dale Gibson picked the wrong horse it seemed!!)
Three runs at Southwell previously have yielded 3rd, 1st and 3rd. Today he carries only 1lb more than his win and Dale Gibson has chosen this over Mick Easterby's other runner. Bonny's Babe is the only other winner over this trip, but is yet to show any form on the all-weather.
8.00 Bradford -4pts to beat Hull 10/11 (WON 24-8 -2.71 - Close first half but the class told in the second half)
Bradford have two trips to Hull in consecutive weekends and if you take the raw stats of their road trips this season, you'd be forgiven for thinking they might struggle to play anywhere outside of Bradford - they have lost three of their four away games and won by just 2 points to Les Catalans. But that's a clue here. Catalans have been much improved this season, particularly at home, and the Bulls have also lost at Leeds and Wigan - hardly bad results. But the tougher away games are out the way now and Hull are a different proposition. They haven't won for 3 matches now, and their average points difference at home is -8. Bradford are a better than average Super League side so a 4 point handicap seems generous to the visitors.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Racing, Darts and Football
Back in the black! (Although the draw looking very unlikely in India currently). Plenty of good racing at Aintree today although good racing means difficult to pick winners, although I will be taking on Kauto Star again today with Exotic Dancer. Those who had a tough Gold Cup rarely give a good showing at Aintree, and I expect Exotic to reverse the King George form, and at 11/2 will be a good each way. But that isn't a tip!
7.20 Kempton Milanollo 3/1 (4th -0.65 - stayed on well but looks like she probably needs further again!)
Milanollo ran on well when second under Hayley Turner here in February, and looked like she would enjoy a bit further. Jamie Spencer rode her on her debut, Miss Turner took over for two rides, but now Jamie is back and that speaks volumes for their expectations and tips mine too.
7.40 Ady Lewis +3.5legs to beat Phil Taylor 10/11 (LOST 8-4 -1.65 - I thought when Ady went 2-0 up it was in the bag, but he clearly hasn't fully recovered and all that happened then was he signalled he was never going to beat James Wade later on)
This is purely a value play, but Ady Lewis if he plays his game is capable of getting closer than 3.5 legs to Phil. He beat Jenkins 8-3 two weeks ago before his illness last week and Jenks went on to lose 8-4 to Jamie Wade and then draw with the Power, who'd beaten Wadey 8-4 the previosu week. Work out that form!!! In the first set of matches Phil won 8-4, and only Barney has beaten Jackpot by more than that, and he had chances to make it a lot closer. I still have my doubts about Ady's temperament in the big game, but his ability is undoubted, and hence why the balance of probabilities is with him to get to 8-5 or better tonight against his old mate.
8.30 Barneveld 2/5 & Wade 4/6 double 4/3 (LOST -2.65 - fell at the first hurdle. Barney 4-2 up then lost 6 of the next 8 and lost 8-6. Wadey duly romped in 8-1!)
Since only losing one of his first six games, Peter Manley has lost his last two matches and now looks favourite again to finish bottom of the legaue with Wayne Mardle finding a purple patch. That one loss in the first six came against Barney, 8-4, and I expect Barney to have no problems again tonight.
Wadey has lsot to Taylor Barney and an aberration against John Part. But he should have enough in his locker to beat Lewis who may struggle with two games in one night after his illness especially as the first is against Taylor. While he may push Taylor close, that will take enough out of him that Jamie should make it none from two tonight for Ady.
LONG TERM BET
Barnsley to be relegated 10/3
Its very tight for the final relegation spot in League One and some big names are in the mix. If Colchester don't win this weekend they will be relegated. Scunthorpe are also as good as gone, being 8 points off safety with 5 games to play. But there are then 10 clubs within 7 points of each other. Four of those have reached the '50 point barrier' already but the 6 remaining have some 'big' names amongst them - Norwich, Coventry, Leicester, Sheff Wed and Southampton are staring at following Leeds and Forest into League One, but its the relative minnow of Barnsley that I feel are the more likely. Wednesday, Barnsley and Southampton all have 46 points currently. Barnsley and Wednesday have a game in hand, and Sheff Wed's goal difference is as good as worth a point. After Sunday's semi-final on the energy sapping Wembley pitch, they then have to come back down south to promotion chasing Watford on Wednesday night, before a trip to Preston who will look to that game to confirm their safety. The big game is then home to Leicester before Charlton visit, who may still be chasing a play-of spot and finishing at Cardiff who may be similarly so. Barnsley have so far only won once awy from home, makinig that Leicester game even mroe important.
Southampton have a home game against table topping Bristol City on Saturday but depsite their position, City have a -8 goal difference away from home so the Saints will hope to get something, and they won 3-2 in Bristol in the reverse fixture. Then three games against playoff sides might yield little, but home to a nothing to play for Sheff United on the final day may be enough.
Wednesday have Scunthorpe away, the Steel City derby, and tricky trips to Blackpool and Leicester, but the Scunny game and home to Norwich on the final day should see them safe.
Leicester really hold the key with both Wednesday and Barnsley to play, but should get three points at home to Colchester before them to give them some comfort.
Coventry are now unbeaten in four and lost 1 in 7 so should edge out enough points, and Norwich's three point cushion plus three games against teams already comfortably mid table should mean Delia doesnt worry too much.
So its Barnsley or Southampton for me, with Wednesday possibly. Saints are 15/8, but Barnsley are 10/3 and that has to be taken with their busy schedule in the next week.
7.20 Kempton Milanollo 3/1 (4th -0.65 - stayed on well but looks like she probably needs further again!)
Milanollo ran on well when second under Hayley Turner here in February, and looked like she would enjoy a bit further. Jamie Spencer rode her on her debut, Miss Turner took over for two rides, but now Jamie is back and that speaks volumes for their expectations and tips mine too.
7.40 Ady Lewis +3.5legs to beat Phil Taylor 10/11 (LOST 8-4 -1.65 - I thought when Ady went 2-0 up it was in the bag, but he clearly hasn't fully recovered and all that happened then was he signalled he was never going to beat James Wade later on)
This is purely a value play, but Ady Lewis if he plays his game is capable of getting closer than 3.5 legs to Phil. He beat Jenkins 8-3 two weeks ago before his illness last week and Jenks went on to lose 8-4 to Jamie Wade and then draw with the Power, who'd beaten Wadey 8-4 the previosu week. Work out that form!!! In the first set of matches Phil won 8-4, and only Barney has beaten Jackpot by more than that, and he had chances to make it a lot closer. I still have my doubts about Ady's temperament in the big game, but his ability is undoubted, and hence why the balance of probabilities is with him to get to 8-5 or better tonight against his old mate.
8.30 Barneveld 2/5 & Wade 4/6 double 4/3 (LOST -2.65 - fell at the first hurdle. Barney 4-2 up then lost 6 of the next 8 and lost 8-6. Wadey duly romped in 8-1!)
Since only losing one of his first six games, Peter Manley has lost his last two matches and now looks favourite again to finish bottom of the legaue with Wayne Mardle finding a purple patch. That one loss in the first six came against Barney, 8-4, and I expect Barney to have no problems again tonight.
Wadey has lsot to Taylor Barney and an aberration against John Part. But he should have enough in his locker to beat Lewis who may struggle with two games in one night after his illness especially as the first is against Taylor. While he may push Taylor close, that will take enough out of him that Jamie should make it none from two tonight for Ady.
LONG TERM BET
Barnsley to be relegated 10/3
Its very tight for the final relegation spot in League One and some big names are in the mix. If Colchester don't win this weekend they will be relegated. Scunthorpe are also as good as gone, being 8 points off safety with 5 games to play. But there are then 10 clubs within 7 points of each other. Four of those have reached the '50 point barrier' already but the 6 remaining have some 'big' names amongst them - Norwich, Coventry, Leicester, Sheff Wed and Southampton are staring at following Leeds and Forest into League One, but its the relative minnow of Barnsley that I feel are the more likely. Wednesday, Barnsley and Southampton all have 46 points currently. Barnsley and Wednesday have a game in hand, and Sheff Wed's goal difference is as good as worth a point. After Sunday's semi-final on the energy sapping Wembley pitch, they then have to come back down south to promotion chasing Watford on Wednesday night, before a trip to Preston who will look to that game to confirm their safety. The big game is then home to Leicester before Charlton visit, who may still be chasing a play-of spot and finishing at Cardiff who may be similarly so. Barnsley have so far only won once awy from home, makinig that Leicester game even mroe important.
Southampton have a home game against table topping Bristol City on Saturday but depsite their position, City have a -8 goal difference away from home so the Saints will hope to get something, and they won 3-2 in Bristol in the reverse fixture. Then three games against playoff sides might yield little, but home to a nothing to play for Sheff United on the final day may be enough.
Wednesday have Scunthorpe away, the Steel City derby, and tricky trips to Blackpool and Leicester, but the Scunny game and home to Norwich on the final day should see them safe.
Leicester really hold the key with both Wednesday and Barnsley to play, but should get three points at home to Colchester before them to give them some comfort.
Coventry are now unbeaten in four and lost 1 in 7 so should edge out enough points, and Norwich's three point cushion plus three games against teams already comfortably mid table should mean Delia doesnt worry too much.
So its Barnsley or Southampton for me, with Wednesday possibly. Saints are 15/8, but Barnsley are 10/3 and that has to be taken with their busy schedule in the next week.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Football
2.20 Catterick Ghafeer 9/4 (WON -0.75 - the market gave us no confidence as he drifted out to 9/2. But Tom rode a perfect race and won by half a length but a further 5 clear of third)
On the official ratings only Whitcobe Flyer gets near Ghafeer at todays weights, and the former has only had one run on turf before - on Good to Firm. Tom Eaves hasn't ridden a winner for a while but I expect him to notch one here and 9/4 seems a better than fair price.
3.50 Catterick Grand Opera 7/2 (6th -1.75 - finished four lengths back of the winner. Robert Winston had to stop and start on him a coupel of times as the gaps didnt open up he had prayed for)
Ran an excellent race last week at Redcar only to lose by a head. The yard haven't normally run him so soon after a run which suggests there is a win to be had this time. Howard Johnson's horses have had a spot of seconditis as we found yesterday but lets go with this one to overcome that.
7.45 Arsenal v Liverpool Draw 21/10 (WON +0.35 - It looked ominous when Arsenal took the lead, but all credit to Liverpool and they, like I do, will feel thye can now go through)
Bound to be a cagey affair this one. Will be interesting to see if its played like a Premiership game or a European game, but neither side will want to give anything away. Liverpool will be keen to try to nick a goal, as will Arsenal - an away goal could be valuable. But for me there is little between these sides at the moment and with two more matches to come in the next seven days, honours even in the first one for me.
4am India v South Africa 2nd Test Draw 11/10
The first test was dominated by the batsmen with thousands of runs and few wickets, even on day five. This wicket apparently has a fair amount of grass on it, and with three out the last four tests played here ending in a draw, I expect this one to go the same way.
On the official ratings only Whitcobe Flyer gets near Ghafeer at todays weights, and the former has only had one run on turf before - on Good to Firm. Tom Eaves hasn't ridden a winner for a while but I expect him to notch one here and 9/4 seems a better than fair price.
3.50 Catterick Grand Opera 7/2 (6th -1.75 - finished four lengths back of the winner. Robert Winston had to stop and start on him a coupel of times as the gaps didnt open up he had prayed for)
Ran an excellent race last week at Redcar only to lose by a head. The yard haven't normally run him so soon after a run which suggests there is a win to be had this time. Howard Johnson's horses have had a spot of seconditis as we found yesterday but lets go with this one to overcome that.
7.45 Arsenal v Liverpool Draw 21/10 (WON +0.35 - It looked ominous when Arsenal took the lead, but all credit to Liverpool and they, like I do, will feel thye can now go through)
Bound to be a cagey affair this one. Will be interesting to see if its played like a Premiership game or a European game, but neither side will want to give anything away. Liverpool will be keen to try to nick a goal, as will Arsenal - an away goal could be valuable. But for me there is little between these sides at the moment and with two more matches to come in the next seven days, honours even in the first one for me.
4am India v South Africa 2nd Test Draw 11/10
The first test was dominated by the batsmen with thousands of runs and few wickets, even on day five. This wicket apparently has a fair amount of grass on it, and with three out the last four tests played here ending in a draw, I expect this one to go the same way.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Racing and Football
No fooling around here, its time to get the month of to a good start, so Wetherby, Rome and Carlisle here we come!
2.40 Wetherby Compriznotension 11/8 (2nd -1.00 - Got taken on 3 out when he bolted towards the stables, but came back, but couldnt go witht he winner)
Howard Johnson's charge has taken well to hurdling so far and has come close on all bar his first attempt. But the key to today could be the ground. His three wins on the flat came on GS, Soft and Heavy, and today is the first time in his hurdlinig career he will encounter soft ground. With nothing else in the race that looks to stand out, that extra cut will hopefully get us off to a good start in April.
7.45 Roma +0.25 Asian Handicap to beat United 16/19 (LOST 2-0 -2.00 - didnt show the Roma we expected and United march on. How good was Ronaldo's header though???)
For the all conquering side that United portray to be they have only won 4 of their last 18 away games in Europe and Roma have proved they are no pushovers in this competition. They won both legs against Real Madrid 2-1 and drew 1-1 with United in the group stage. While United may repeat their victory at Old Trafford in the second leg, Sir Alex will be happy to go home with a draw, particularly with an away goal, and that would pay out on half our Asian bet. The other half will pay if Roma can sneak a victory and that is by no means beyond them given their home record - in all competitions they have played 21 games, won 17, drawn three and lost just one - to table toppers Inter back in September.
7.45 Carlisle to beat Forest 11/10 (LOST 2-0 -3.00 - This was in the balance til Forest grabbed two late goals and upset the formbook)
This is an unbelievable odds against bet. Carlisle currently sit in second spot in League One, and a win tonight would move them 6 points clear of third placed Doncaster with 6 to play, and 4 points behind table toppers Swansea. And the bedrock of that position has been their home form - played 18, won 16, drawn 1, lost 1 - the loss and the draw coming in their first four home games. Forest meanwhile have gone from likely promotion candidates to being in danger of missing even a playoff spot. Failure to pick up a point tonight would mean they only have a 3 point cushion over 7th place Brighton. And their current form will bne their main worry. They haven't won in 7 games and only scored 2 goals in that time. Rumours swirl off the Trent that Ian Dowie is set to replace Colin Calderwood at any moment - a move that would be popular with the fans who ran out of patience with the Scot a long time ago. Tonight could see another nail in his coffin.
2.40 Wetherby Compriznotension 11/8 (2nd -1.00 - Got taken on 3 out when he bolted towards the stables, but came back, but couldnt go witht he winner)
Howard Johnson's charge has taken well to hurdling so far and has come close on all bar his first attempt. But the key to today could be the ground. His three wins on the flat came on GS, Soft and Heavy, and today is the first time in his hurdlinig career he will encounter soft ground. With nothing else in the race that looks to stand out, that extra cut will hopefully get us off to a good start in April.
7.45 Roma +0.25 Asian Handicap to beat United 16/19 (LOST 2-0 -2.00 - didnt show the Roma we expected and United march on. How good was Ronaldo's header though???)
For the all conquering side that United portray to be they have only won 4 of their last 18 away games in Europe and Roma have proved they are no pushovers in this competition. They won both legs against Real Madrid 2-1 and drew 1-1 with United in the group stage. While United may repeat their victory at Old Trafford in the second leg, Sir Alex will be happy to go home with a draw, particularly with an away goal, and that would pay out on half our Asian bet. The other half will pay if Roma can sneak a victory and that is by no means beyond them given their home record - in all competitions they have played 21 games, won 17, drawn three and lost just one - to table toppers Inter back in September.
7.45 Carlisle to beat Forest 11/10 (LOST 2-0 -3.00 - This was in the balance til Forest grabbed two late goals and upset the formbook)
This is an unbelievable odds against bet. Carlisle currently sit in second spot in League One, and a win tonight would move them 6 points clear of third placed Doncaster with 6 to play, and 4 points behind table toppers Swansea. And the bedrock of that position has been their home form - played 18, won 16, drawn 1, lost 1 - the loss and the draw coming in their first four home games. Forest meanwhile have gone from likely promotion candidates to being in danger of missing even a playoff spot. Failure to pick up a point tonight would mean they only have a 3 point cushion over 7th place Brighton. And their current form will bne their main worry. They haven't won in 7 games and only scored 2 goals in that time. Rumours swirl off the Trent that Ian Dowie is set to replace Colin Calderwood at any moment - a move that would be popular with the fans who ran out of patience with the Scot a long time ago. Tonight could see another nail in his coffin.
March Summary
It doesn't need many words other than 'Truly Awful' ! The only silver lining is that we are still in profit overall since December, so keep reading and lets get back to having winning months!
March loss : £25.64
Success rate : 16% (7/44)
Overall profit : £2.85
Overall success : 34% (55/161)
March loss : £25.64
Success rate : 16% (7/44)
Overall profit : £2.85
Overall success : 34% (55/161)
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