Racing, Darts and Football

Back in the black! (Although the draw looking very unlikely in India currently). Plenty of good racing at Aintree today although good racing means difficult to pick winners, although I will be taking on Kauto Star again today with Exotic Dancer. Those who had a tough Gold Cup rarely give a good showing at Aintree, and I expect Exotic to reverse the King George form, and at 11/2 will be a good each way. But that isn't a tip!

7.20 Kempton Milanollo 3/1 (4th -0.65 - stayed on well but looks like she probably needs further again!)
Milanollo ran on well when second under Hayley Turner here in February, and looked like she would enjoy a bit further. Jamie Spencer rode her on her debut, Miss Turner took over for two rides, but now Jamie is back and that speaks volumes for their expectations and tips mine too.

7.40 Ady Lewis +3.5legs to beat Phil Taylor 10/11 (LOST 8-4 -1.65 - I thought when Ady went 2-0 up it was in the bag, but he clearly hasn't fully recovered and all that happened then was he signalled he was never going to beat James Wade later on)
This is purely a value play, but Ady Lewis if he plays his game is capable of getting closer than 3.5 legs to Phil. He beat Jenkins 8-3 two weeks ago before his illness last week and Jenks went on to lose 8-4 to Jamie Wade and then draw with the Power, who'd beaten Wadey 8-4 the previosu week. Work out that form!!! In the first set of matches Phil won 8-4, and only Barney has beaten Jackpot by more than that, and he had chances to make it a lot closer. I still have my doubts about Ady's temperament in the big game, but his ability is undoubted, and hence why the balance of probabilities is with him to get to 8-5 or better tonight against his old mate.

8.30 Barneveld 2/5 & Wade 4/6 double 4/3 (LOST -2.65 - fell at the first hurdle. Barney 4-2 up then lost 6 of the next 8 and lost 8-6. Wadey duly romped in 8-1!)
Since only losing one of his first six games, Peter Manley has lost his last two matches and now looks favourite again to finish bottom of the legaue with Wayne Mardle finding a purple patch. That one loss in the first six came against Barney, 8-4, and I expect Barney to have no problems again tonight.
Wadey has lsot to Taylor Barney and an aberration against John Part. But he should have enough in his locker to beat Lewis who may struggle with two games in one night after his illness especially as the first is against Taylor. While he may push Taylor close, that will take enough out of him that Jamie should make it none from two tonight for Ady.

LONG TERM BET
Barnsley to be relegated 10/3
Its very tight for the final relegation spot in League One and some big names are in the mix. If Colchester don't win this weekend they will be relegated. Scunthorpe are also as good as gone, being 8 points off safety with 5 games to play. But there are then 10 clubs within 7 points of each other. Four of those have reached the '50 point barrier' already but the 6 remaining have some 'big' names amongst them - Norwich, Coventry, Leicester, Sheff Wed and Southampton are staring at following Leeds and Forest into League One, but its the relative minnow of Barnsley that I feel are the more likely. Wednesday, Barnsley and Southampton all have 46 points currently. Barnsley and Wednesday have a game in hand, and Sheff Wed's goal difference is as good as worth a point. After Sunday's semi-final on the energy sapping Wembley pitch, they then have to come back down south to promotion chasing Watford on Wednesday night, before a trip to Preston who will look to that game to confirm their safety. The big game is then home to Leicester before Charlton visit, who may still be chasing a play-of spot and finishing at Cardiff who may be similarly so. Barnsley have so far only won once awy from home, makinig that Leicester game even mroe important.
Southampton have a home game against table topping Bristol City on Saturday but depsite their position, City have a -8 goal difference away from home so the Saints will hope to get something, and they won 3-2 in Bristol in the reverse fixture. Then three games against playoff sides might yield little, but home to a nothing to play for Sheff United on the final day may be enough.
Wednesday have Scunthorpe away, the Steel City derby, and tricky trips to Blackpool and Leicester, but the Scunny game and home to Norwich on the final day should see them safe.
Leicester really hold the key with both Wednesday and Barnsley to play, but should get three points at home to Colchester before them to give them some comfort.
Coventry are now unbeaten in four and lost 1 in 7 so should edge out enough points, and Norwich's three point cushion plus three games against teams already comfortably mid table should mean Delia doesnt worry too much.
So its Barnsley or Southampton for me, with Wednesday possibly. Saints are 15/8, but Barnsley are 10/3 and that has to be taken with their busy schedule in the next week.