Football thoughts

Nothing worth betting on today, so we'll just nurse our winnings from last week and take a look at how things are shaping up now we have some meaningful form.

I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.

Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.

Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?

Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.

And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.

With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.

Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w