A new month, time to get some swag in the bag.
5.20 Newcastle Feisty Royale 3/1 (NON-RUNNER)
This fillies two wins came last season over 6f on Gd and GS ground, and a good second place last week over the same trip on soft ground, suggests she should be fine with the 7f today on heavy going. She is up a pound for that race, but her wins last season came in handicaps off this rating and 5lbs higher, and she is 10lbs lower than the start of this year. Casino Night is the only other horse with proven firm on softer ground, but 7f may be on the sharp side for her.
7.45 Anorthosis Famagusta to beat Panathinaikos 23/10 (WON 3-1 +2.30 - the Cypriots are now joint top with Inter)
You may remember back in August we backed Omonia Nicosia to beat AEK Athens in the UEFA Cup at a tasty price and and were only beaten by a late equaliser from the Greeks. Then I enthused how Cypriot football is developing as a force to be taken seriously these days. Well tonight another Cypriot team take on another Greek team. Anorthosis Famagusta are managed by Temuri Ketsbaia and have the mercurial Georgi Kinkladze among their ranks. They are also the only unbeaten team in the Cypriot League, alongside Nicosia. Panathinaikos meanwhile finished 3rd in the Greek League last year, 2 points behind AEK, and a further 2 points behind champions Olympiakos. And why aren't Olympiakos in the Champions League now you may ask? Because Famagusta beat them 3-0 in the home leg of their qualifying tie. So if Famagusta were Italian or Spanish they would be favourites tonight, but because they are Cypriot we are getting a decent price. Take advantage while it lasts.
7.45 Atletico to bt Marseille and Inter to bt Bremen double 13/7 (LOST +1.30 - a comfortable win for Atletico but Milan couldnt maintain their lead against Bremen)
Despite losing 1-0 at home to Seville on Sunday, Atletico have scored 18 goals in their last 7 league and European cup games, and had won the previous three home games 4-0 including against Schalke in the final qualifying round, having been 1-0 down from the first leg! Sergio Aguero has been key to this with 5 goals, 3 in Europe and is the spearhead of the side. Marseille are unbeaten in the French League this season but have drawn four of their seven games, and I dont see them having the guile or power to get past this Atletico side.
Jose Mourinho made his intent known in the first game with a trademark cleansheet in Greece, and a 2-0 victory, while Bremen were held at home by Famagusta. Jose has been brought in to win this tournament and so I dont expect any slip up at home.
7.45 Bath +7 to beat Wasps 10/11 (WON +2.21 - I hope some of you may have backed Bath outright but the handicap was never in doubt)
The news is all about Danny Cipriani's comeback tonight, and that added to Wasps home advantage have got the bookies to way overprice this match-up. Bath have beaten basement sides Bristol and Worcester either side of a 4 point loss to Gloucester, but the eye-catching performance and result was a 20-16 win at London Irish. Wasps meanwhile lost their first three games to Northampton, Worcester and London Irish, but had a good win at Leicester at the weekend which seems to have swayed the bookies. I nearly put Bath up to win this at 2/1 and I wouldnt dissuade anyone from that, but a seven-point start on the handicap seems a steal.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
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