Racing, Football and Rugby

So a new month and we've got a nice profit on day one. So we'll stick with the same sports as yesterday.

2.55 Ayr Scenic Pass 13/8 (2ND +1.21 - Doric Echo finished the better of the two)
This fillie had gone up 15lbs when she was second by half a length last time out, and beat today's main opponent Doric Echo by 3/4 of a length. That day Scenic Pass carried 3lbs more than Doric Echo, is due to go up 5lbs, but today the rematch is off level weights on heavier going, so I don't see that form reversing, especially as he seemed anything but reliable and looked like further would suit him.

4.30 Goodwood Timocracy 15/8 (3rd +0.21 - Will probably need to revert to softer ground)
After stepping up beyond a mile, Timocracy has run 3 good races in September, winning by 5 lengths, and second by 1/4 of a length and a head while still moving up in the weights. He is due to go up another 2lbs after today, so I expect him to make the most of having the jockey who rode him to his previous victory, Royston Ffrench, back on board against what otherwise looks a moderate field. Sinbad the Sailor and Mon Plaisir are each way value, but Timocracy looks the the one to take the spoils.

6.40 Standard Liege draw no bet to beat Everton 8/11 (WON +0.94 - Moyes is sounding like a desparate man, I'm sorry to say for my Bluenose friends)
You have to go back 13 games and nearly 6 months for Everton's last clean sheet, and in their 8 games this season they have conceded 2 or more goals on all bar one occasion. In the first 6 game they had scored 11 in reply, but its now 192 minutes without a goal, and their lack of investment in the summer is pointing towards a difficult season for the Toffees. I'm not saying they will be fighting relegation but it could be mid-table mediocrity and hope for a cup run. Their opponents tonight meanwhile have conceded just 7 in their 10 games, including two league games against Anderlecht and just one goal over 2 legs against the same Liverpool side who swatted away Everton's flyweight challenge on Saturday - that 1-0 defeat at Anfield being Liege's only defeat of the season. David Moyes will be be doing everything to get his side up again after that defeat but there were few positives to be taken, and confidence can't be high. Liege will be confident after the 2-2 draw at Goodison, and last weekend's win over Anderlecht, and so I don't see them winning. As the game goes on Everton may start to hang on for penalties so I'd like to keep the draw onside, but Liege should win this.

8.00 Harlequins to beat Worcester 6/5 (WON 30-23 +2.14 - Quins always in control - hope we get more anomalies in pricing in next few games)
Another rugby union price I don't understand. According to the odds, Quins are 4 times more likely to finish in the top 3 of the Guinness Premiership and Worcester are 5 times more likely to finish bottom. Quins have lost narrowly to London Irish (by 1pt) and Gloucester (by 4pts) and beaten Saracens and Bristol - with a little extra they could have 4 wins from 4. Worcester have fought pluckily but lost to Northampton, Leicester, edged Wasps (who are not the side they were - see yesterday's tips), before an 18pt defeat at Bath on Saturday. And yet after all that Worcester are favourites tonight. Does home advantage really count for that much? Granted Quins two losses have been on the road, but Worcester have lost their one home game so far. I see Quins having too much too much in the back row and at fly-half for Worcester to triumph here.