The last day of the month and an erratic month for tipping, so firstly apologies. Secondly, we will now attempt to get back into the black for the month today. And thirdly it has to be good for football that the Spanish won last night. Good work Nando!
1.00 Hewitt to beat Federer 14/1 (LOST -2.71 - Had his chance in the first set, but once the tie break had gone it was one way traffic)
I just have a sense that this year everyone is expecting a Federer v Nadal showdown, but it could end up with neither in the final. And one man who is capable of turning over the slightly camp Swiss master is the former world number one Hewitt. He hasn't beaten Federer since 2004, but few players have, but he has won 7 of their 20 meetings overall, which must be one of the best percentages around against Federer, other than Nadal. Earlier this year he fell to his lowest ranking for 10 years, but Tony Roche, who knows a thing or two about playing and coaching at Wimbledon has started to turn things around, and after a testing 5 setter in the first round, he has cruised through his last two matches looking like the old Hewitt. Federer, has of course, also looked perfectly at home on grass as usual, but with his form so far this year not at his usual standards, if Hewitt can get into him early he may have a chance, and 14/1 may seem a big price. Hewitt is a long shot, but not 14/1.
1.00 Hewitt +8 games v Federer 5/6 (WON -1.88 - Snook in by one game!)
As discussed above, I expect Hewitt to push him closer than the bookies do, so the handicap bet should be nice insurance.
4.00 Gasquet beat Murray 13/10 (LOST -2.88 - Does anything need saying, other than questioning whether an Asian betting syndicate might have been involved? The nation's press dare not mention it, but would it surprise you with such as turnaround?)
Both these players have only dropped one set so far, and both are seen as their nation's future tennis star, with Gasquet just one ranking ahead of Murray. They have played each other twice, both on hard courts, Murray only taking one of the five sets. Murray has a 3rd round and a fourth round appearance whereas Gasquet has a 4th round appearance and reached the semi-final last year. So who should be favourite? Well believe it or not, Murray is 8/11 and Gasquet 13/10! Classic case as patriotic betting allowing an opportunity for the level-headed punter.
7.10 Windsor Green Lagonda 2/1 (3rd -3.88 - Couldnt go with the winner, but plugged on. Maybe 7f is his trip?)
Ran well over 7f at Redcar the weekend before last, but looked like confirming 6f is his distance now. Back down to a mark he has won off previously and the booking of Richard Hughes fresh from his Group 1 win at Saint Cloud yesterday speaks volumes. He won't be a big price, but better a short priced winner than a long priced loser.
8.55 Musselburgh Low Flyer 14/5 (LAST -4.88 - an awful ride by Silvestre. Held the horse up at the rear of the field and then never put it in the race
A speculative punt this one - the horse is the best in the field IF he finds his form and it is that inconsistency that has been his problem. But with an 8 runner field and the fantastically named Sivestre de Souza in good form onboard, I'm going to give Low Flyer one last chance.
9.10 Windsor Stand In Flames 16/5 (4th -5.88 - Came to the fore with a furlong to go but didnt quite get home)
Has proved his versatility on the going in his two runs this year, and been unlucky to have come up against good unexposed sorts both times. There doesn't seem to be one of those lurking in this field, so time for him to get off the mark in 2008.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Monday, June 23, 2008
Tennis and Racing
Its that time of year again when middle aged women from the home counties wet their knickers for the plucky Henman replacement that is Andy Murray, who will inevitably crash out while ranting at a linesman and will rapidly switch from being a British hero to a Scottish loser. Skinny prices generally but a few for you to combine:
12.00 Lopez, Karanusic & Vaidisova Treble 10/11 (WON +0.29 - all three eased
These three competent players are all playing three players who have never got past the third round, having been dumped unceremoniously out in at least the last three years. Easy fodder.
2.30 Bollelli, Karlovic & Andreev Double 12/11 (LOST -0.71 - Bogdanovic made it 6 from 6 first round defeats, but the big Croatian let me down)
Croatia and Russia combine with two of the biggest serves in tennis to wipe Vanek and Stadler out of the tournament faster than even some Brits! But no slower than 5 times first round loser Alex Bogdanovic. One year he won't even make it past Earls Court tube!
9.20 Chepstow Garland 6/1 ew (LOST -1.71 - had a chance with a furlong to go, but struggled from then)
Has improved in her two handicaps to date, and definitely so for the tongue tie last time. This looks a low quality affair, which could be enough for Richard Hannon to take the last race of the day.
12.00 Lopez, Karanusic & Vaidisova Treble 10/11 (WON +0.29 - all three eased
These three competent players are all playing three players who have never got past the third round, having been dumped unceremoniously out in at least the last three years. Easy fodder.
2.30 Bollelli, Karlovic & Andreev Double 12/11 (LOST -0.71 - Bogdanovic made it 6 from 6 first round defeats, but the big Croatian let me down)
Croatia and Russia combine with two of the biggest serves in tennis to wipe Vanek and Stadler out of the tournament faster than even some Brits! But no slower than 5 times first round loser Alex Bogdanovic. One year he won't even make it past Earls Court tube!
9.20 Chepstow Garland 6/1 ew (LOST -1.71 - had a chance with a furlong to go, but struggled from then)
Has improved in her two handicaps to date, and definitely so for the tongue tie last time. This looks a low quality affair, which could be enough for Richard Hannon to take the last race of the day.
Friday, June 20, 2008
City Punter's Ascot Day Four Preview
A good day yesterday with South Central winning the first, and a nice 7/1 winner in the last to round the day off. Here's today's thoughts...
2.30 Albany Stakes (WON +3.38 - worried odds on backers at the halfway stage but stayed on strongly to justify the price)
Another race to keep your stakes low on with little form to go on, but I'd want to be on a horse that has at least proved it can win a race before coming here, and of those wins, the most impressive one so far has to be Cuis Ghaire's Group 3 win at Naas over today's trip on the same going. She made all that day, as on her previous start, won by 3.5 lengths and was still going strongly at the end. Mick Channon's Please Sing and the French horse Jet D'Eau ridden by Frankie Dettori may fight it out for the minor honours, and Cuis Ghaire will be a short price, but for good reason in my view.
3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (LOST +2.38 - Bronze Cannon had no usual sprint up the straight and the winner broke the betting trend. However, I'm not sure Ryan Moore will count this as his best ride as Conduit was probably the best horse in the race)
Well nothing outside the first three in the market has won this race for 15 years, so we immediately strip the field down to Conduit, Bronze Cannon and Hebridean. And with the three trainers all having won this race in the last 4 years, there is little to choose between the three. But I'm going to plump for John Gosden's Bronze Cannon. Unbeaten this season, having not run on turf in his juvenile year, he won a handicap at Newmarket in April despite Jimmy Fortune dropping his reins in the final furlong, beating Doctor Fremantle who went on to win the Chester Vase and finish 4th in the Derby. He then won his prep race easily, before connections decided to duck the Derby to presumably keep him fresh for today's race. Bear in mind Derby runners have a very poor record in this race and we have another reason why 4/1 might be a nice price for this horse.
3.45 Coronation Stakes (4th +1.38 - Infallible turned the Newmarket form around and both were beaten by an Irish raider. Infallible didnt seem his usual self)
5 favourites have won this race in the last nine years, and only Indian Ink last year at 8/1 won at a price bigger than 6/1. With Spacious and Infallible vying for favouritism at 3/1 and 7/2 respectively, and 7/1 bar this pair, I'm not considering anything else. And for me I would make the differential between these two greater on the evidence of the 1000 Guineas. Spacious was making her seasonal debut that day, and finished 3/4 of a length ahead of Infallible, who had the benefit of a previous run under her belt. I would expect that margin to be wider this afternoon and 3/1 may not be available nearer the start time.
4.20 Wolferton Handicap (NON RUNNER - but another double digit priced winner of this race)
Four year olds have won the last five runnings of this race and 7 of the last 8. And the favourite hasn't won since 1999, with only a second and a third to show, and the last three winners have won at 25/1, 16/1 and 25/1! So I'm hoping my fancy drifts slightly to second favourite! I will also caveat this horse, by saying keep your stakes low, as he has gone up 13lbs in the handicap for his last win, and it is never easy to tell how a horse will react to such a leap. However, he did win easily last time with the official distance 4.5 lengths, but was obviously eased down towards the line. He's proven over the trip, still going strongly over 10f in his maiden victory, which was on good ground, so I don't see today's slightly quicker ground worrying him. I'm hoping all 16 horses stay in so we can get each way for 4 places, and I will then happily have Bushman on my side.
4.55 Queen's Vase (9th +0.38 - neither of Mark Johnston's horses ran well, but another short-priced favourite wins this race)
Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race four times in the last seven years, and with only two horses longer than 7/1 (and only 9/1 and 11/1 at that) winning in the last 10 years, his favoured runner Captain Webb at 13/2 looks one to follow. The one guess for this race is the staying ability of the horses, but Captain Webb stayed on strongly from 2f out in his win in a Listed race over 11f at Hamilton a month ago, so for me I'm as confident as I can be that this horse will get the trip. You've probably guessed its not one to lump on, but an each way interest is worthwhile.
5.30 Buckingham Palace Stakes (LOST -0.62 - the result proved it was best to avoid but congratulations if you did pick the 25/1 winner, 551/1 forecast, or 9965/1 tricast!)
This really is a race to steer clear of. A 30 runner handicap which has only been run 6 times, and won by horses aged 4 to 8, carrying 8st5 to 9st12, by six different trainers and at prices from 8/1 to 33/1. So who knows what it takes to win this race! If you do feel like a bet though I'll give you a horse for an each way run. Our Faye recently won a handicap at Goodwood and won a Class 2 handicap here at Ascot last August. Admittedly both were off 8lbs lower than today's mark, but at 25/1 this mare should give you an interest.
2.30 Albany Stakes (WON +3.38 - worried odds on backers at the halfway stage but stayed on strongly to justify the price)
Another race to keep your stakes low on with little form to go on, but I'd want to be on a horse that has at least proved it can win a race before coming here, and of those wins, the most impressive one so far has to be Cuis Ghaire's Group 3 win at Naas over today's trip on the same going. She made all that day, as on her previous start, won by 3.5 lengths and was still going strongly at the end. Mick Channon's Please Sing and the French horse Jet D'Eau ridden by Frankie Dettori may fight it out for the minor honours, and Cuis Ghaire will be a short price, but for good reason in my view.
3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (LOST +2.38 - Bronze Cannon had no usual sprint up the straight and the winner broke the betting trend. However, I'm not sure Ryan Moore will count this as his best ride as Conduit was probably the best horse in the race)
Well nothing outside the first three in the market has won this race for 15 years, so we immediately strip the field down to Conduit, Bronze Cannon and Hebridean. And with the three trainers all having won this race in the last 4 years, there is little to choose between the three. But I'm going to plump for John Gosden's Bronze Cannon. Unbeaten this season, having not run on turf in his juvenile year, he won a handicap at Newmarket in April despite Jimmy Fortune dropping his reins in the final furlong, beating Doctor Fremantle who went on to win the Chester Vase and finish 4th in the Derby. He then won his prep race easily, before connections decided to duck the Derby to presumably keep him fresh for today's race. Bear in mind Derby runners have a very poor record in this race and we have another reason why 4/1 might be a nice price for this horse.
3.45 Coronation Stakes (4th +1.38 - Infallible turned the Newmarket form around and both were beaten by an Irish raider. Infallible didnt seem his usual self)
5 favourites have won this race in the last nine years, and only Indian Ink last year at 8/1 won at a price bigger than 6/1. With Spacious and Infallible vying for favouritism at 3/1 and 7/2 respectively, and 7/1 bar this pair, I'm not considering anything else. And for me I would make the differential between these two greater on the evidence of the 1000 Guineas. Spacious was making her seasonal debut that day, and finished 3/4 of a length ahead of Infallible, who had the benefit of a previous run under her belt. I would expect that margin to be wider this afternoon and 3/1 may not be available nearer the start time.
4.20 Wolferton Handicap (NON RUNNER - but another double digit priced winner of this race)
Four year olds have won the last five runnings of this race and 7 of the last 8. And the favourite hasn't won since 1999, with only a second and a third to show, and the last three winners have won at 25/1, 16/1 and 25/1! So I'm hoping my fancy drifts slightly to second favourite! I will also caveat this horse, by saying keep your stakes low, as he has gone up 13lbs in the handicap for his last win, and it is never easy to tell how a horse will react to such a leap. However, he did win easily last time with the official distance 4.5 lengths, but was obviously eased down towards the line. He's proven over the trip, still going strongly over 10f in his maiden victory, which was on good ground, so I don't see today's slightly quicker ground worrying him. I'm hoping all 16 horses stay in so we can get each way for 4 places, and I will then happily have Bushman on my side.
4.55 Queen's Vase (9th +0.38 - neither of Mark Johnston's horses ran well, but another short-priced favourite wins this race)
Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race four times in the last seven years, and with only two horses longer than 7/1 (and only 9/1 and 11/1 at that) winning in the last 10 years, his favoured runner Captain Webb at 13/2 looks one to follow. The one guess for this race is the staying ability of the horses, but Captain Webb stayed on strongly from 2f out in his win in a Listed race over 11f at Hamilton a month ago, so for me I'm as confident as I can be that this horse will get the trip. You've probably guessed its not one to lump on, but an each way interest is worthwhile.
5.30 Buckingham Palace Stakes (LOST -0.62 - the result proved it was best to avoid but congratulations if you did pick the 25/1 winner, 551/1 forecast, or 9965/1 tricast!)
This really is a race to steer clear of. A 30 runner handicap which has only been run 6 times, and won by horses aged 4 to 8, carrying 8st5 to 9st12, by six different trainers and at prices from 8/1 to 33/1. So who knows what it takes to win this race! If you do feel like a bet though I'll give you a horse for an each way run. Our Faye recently won a handicap at Goodwood and won a Class 2 handicap here at Ascot last August. Admittedly both were off 8lbs lower than today's mark, but at 25/1 this mare should give you an interest.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Ascot Day Three
A flat to slightly up day yesterday with the 4/1 victory for Sabana Perdida, and the place for Shabiba in the last. Here's today's thoughts...
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (South Central WON, Baycat LAST -0.34 - South Central made it 8 out of 10 favourites to win this race, while Baycat clearly showed a preference for slower groun d)
A difficult race to really get stuck into with those at the head of the market only having run once or twice. However, seven of the last nine runnings of this race have gone the way of the favourite or second favourite, and one of those that didn't went to the third favourite so don't go looking for a big priced winner here. South Central is almost certain to go off favourite and Cerito and Prolific will be battling for second favourite, so I would hold off on your bets until close to post time. With the very shrewd Mrs Findlay owning Cerito, if the money comes for this horse from her friends and relations it will be a big sign to join in the punt. But at the moment I would side with South Central at 7/2, as no winner in the last ten years has had longer than a month's rest between their maiden and this race. The other one that goes against this trend but has impressed me in his two runs so far, and will like the overnight shower just to freshen the ground, is an each way shout for Baycat at 14/1.
3.05 Ribblesdale Stakes (4th -1.34 - got barged as she tried to make her move but stayed on well)
This race has thrown up a few surprises in its time - we have to go back to 1998 for a winning favourite and have seen 5 double figure priced winners, with 2005 and 2006 seeing 22/1 and 25/1 shots landing the spoils. Again the winners tend to be lightly raced, so I will just have small stakes on an unexposed in-form horse that looks to get the trip. And for me I will have another each way go on Icon Project. On a straight form line, she should finish behind Dar Re Mi who beat her by 7 lengths at Sandown and Cape Amber who subsequently beat Dar Re Mi, but Icon Project had definitely come on in her second run and has potential to come on again for that when stepping up to a mile and a half. Keep your stakes small again but 20/1 each way looks the one for me.
3.45 Gold Cup (3rd -2.34 - so the fairy story was completed and impressively so by Yeats. I fortunately took all three mentioned in the tricast but that doesn't count here!)
So the fairy story is Yeats completing a hat-trick of Gold Cups, and he will likely go off favourite to do so. But he will become the first horse over six years old to win the Gold Cup in 68 years! And with last year's runner up, Geordieland, also now seven, it just reinforces my belief that Andre Fabre's unbeaten Coastal Path is something special. Six runs, six wins, and a comfortable 5 lengths victory in a Group 2 at Longchamps last month, suggest this horse has greatness in him, and at 4, he could repeat Yeats double. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Avail yourself of the 2/1 - time to put some proper money down!
4.20 Britannia Stakes (LOST -3.34 - The analysis of the race was right, with a sub 9lb low drawn horse wining it, but we got the wrong one!)
I'm not going to make the mistake of ignoring the weight stats like I did with Bankable yesterday. Like yesterday's big handicap, just three of the last 19 winners have carried over 9st. The other big point to take from yesterday's Hunt Cup, was that a low draw is clearly preferable in these events, and so I am going with the horse in stall number 1, Hurricane Hymnbook. He was second to Ibn Khaldun at Ascot last September, before that horse went on to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, and his one run this season was a neck second to Staying On who won the big Betfred Bowl handicap at Haydock. The experience of Mick Kinane will help, and I think 10/1 represents excellent value and you should get a good run for your money - each way at that price in a 30 runner field of course!
4.55 Hampton Court Stakes (LOST-4.34 - Kensington Oval missed the break and never got into the race after that. But another second favourite won the race)
The analysis of this race is fairly straightforward. The favourite has won tow of the last three runnings of this race, and Sir Michael Stoute has the first two horses in the market. The favourite, Dr Faustus, won under stable jockey Ryan Moore in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket last month. The second favourite, Kensington Oval, is largely unknown with only a win in a maiden at Sandown for us to go on, when Ryan Moore saw him home going away from the field a fortnight ago. And so which does Ryan plump for today? The latter. For me, if anyone can choose between them the jockey who's won recently on them both should, so that's a good enough recommendation for me. Kensington Oval at 6/1 to be walked into the winners enclosure by his owner, Her Majesty's Representative at Ascot and chairman of Ascot Racecourse, the Duke of Devonshire.
5.30 King George V Handicap (WON +2.64 - the handicap trends continued and Colony ran an excellent race to finish the day off)
Another handicap with the 9st ceiling applying. The last 6 winners have all carried less than 9st and Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have won nine of the last 15 runnings of this race. So its down to Colony or Missioner for me. And Colony has shown form in better races, and looks the more likely to make the step up from 10f to 12f, on the evidence of his runs this season. So another winner for the Stoute/Moore combination to wrap up the day at 7/1.
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (South Central WON, Baycat LAST -0.34 - South Central made it 8 out of 10 favourites to win this race, while Baycat clearly showed a preference for slower groun d)
A difficult race to really get stuck into with those at the head of the market only having run once or twice. However, seven of the last nine runnings of this race have gone the way of the favourite or second favourite, and one of those that didn't went to the third favourite so don't go looking for a big priced winner here. South Central is almost certain to go off favourite and Cerito and Prolific will be battling for second favourite, so I would hold off on your bets until close to post time. With the very shrewd Mrs Findlay owning Cerito, if the money comes for this horse from her friends and relations it will be a big sign to join in the punt. But at the moment I would side with South Central at 7/2, as no winner in the last ten years has had longer than a month's rest between their maiden and this race. The other one that goes against this trend but has impressed me in his two runs so far, and will like the overnight shower just to freshen the ground, is an each way shout for Baycat at 14/1.
3.05 Ribblesdale Stakes (4th -1.34 - got barged as she tried to make her move but stayed on well)
This race has thrown up a few surprises in its time - we have to go back to 1998 for a winning favourite and have seen 5 double figure priced winners, with 2005 and 2006 seeing 22/1 and 25/1 shots landing the spoils. Again the winners tend to be lightly raced, so I will just have small stakes on an unexposed in-form horse that looks to get the trip. And for me I will have another each way go on Icon Project. On a straight form line, she should finish behind Dar Re Mi who beat her by 7 lengths at Sandown and Cape Amber who subsequently beat Dar Re Mi, but Icon Project had definitely come on in her second run and has potential to come on again for that when stepping up to a mile and a half. Keep your stakes small again but 20/1 each way looks the one for me.
3.45 Gold Cup (3rd -2.34 - so the fairy story was completed and impressively so by Yeats. I fortunately took all three mentioned in the tricast but that doesn't count here!)
So the fairy story is Yeats completing a hat-trick of Gold Cups, and he will likely go off favourite to do so. But he will become the first horse over six years old to win the Gold Cup in 68 years! And with last year's runner up, Geordieland, also now seven, it just reinforces my belief that Andre Fabre's unbeaten Coastal Path is something special. Six runs, six wins, and a comfortable 5 lengths victory in a Group 2 at Longchamps last month, suggest this horse has greatness in him, and at 4, he could repeat Yeats double. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Avail yourself of the 2/1 - time to put some proper money down!
4.20 Britannia Stakes (LOST -3.34 - The analysis of the race was right, with a sub 9lb low drawn horse wining it, but we got the wrong one!)
I'm not going to make the mistake of ignoring the weight stats like I did with Bankable yesterday. Like yesterday's big handicap, just three of the last 19 winners have carried over 9st. The other big point to take from yesterday's Hunt Cup, was that a low draw is clearly preferable in these events, and so I am going with the horse in stall number 1, Hurricane Hymnbook. He was second to Ibn Khaldun at Ascot last September, before that horse went on to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, and his one run this season was a neck second to Staying On who won the big Betfred Bowl handicap at Haydock. The experience of Mick Kinane will help, and I think 10/1 represents excellent value and you should get a good run for your money - each way at that price in a 30 runner field of course!
4.55 Hampton Court Stakes (LOST-4.34 - Kensington Oval missed the break and never got into the race after that. But another second favourite won the race)
The analysis of this race is fairly straightforward. The favourite has won tow of the last three runnings of this race, and Sir Michael Stoute has the first two horses in the market. The favourite, Dr Faustus, won under stable jockey Ryan Moore in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket last month. The second favourite, Kensington Oval, is largely unknown with only a win in a maiden at Sandown for us to go on, when Ryan Moore saw him home going away from the field a fortnight ago. And so which does Ryan plump for today? The latter. For me, if anyone can choose between them the jockey who's won recently on them both should, so that's a good enough recommendation for me. Kensington Oval at 6/1 to be walked into the winners enclosure by his owner, Her Majesty's Representative at Ascot and chairman of Ascot Racecourse, the Duke of Devonshire.
5.30 King George V Handicap (WON +2.64 - the handicap trends continued and Colony ran an excellent race to finish the day off)
Another handicap with the 9st ceiling applying. The last 6 winners have all carried less than 9st and Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have won nine of the last 15 runnings of this race. So its down to Colony or Missioner for me. And Colony has shown form in better races, and looks the more likely to make the step up from 10f to 12f, on the evidence of his runs this season. So another winner for the Stoute/Moore combination to wrap up the day at 7/1.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Ascot Day 2
2.30 Jersey Stakes (LOST -3.09 - didn't really get home and may need slower ground)
You have to go back a long way to find a winner of this carrying a penalty, and 9 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the lower half of the draw. So that has cut the field to half a dozen already, which includes my fancy for this first race, Calming Influence. He beat Stimulation by a head last time out in a Listed race, and despite Stimulation meeting him 4lbs better off today, I expect Saeed Bin Suroor's runner to have come on more than the experienced horse, and Stimulation is drawn high. Red Alert was a further neck back, but again doesn't have the room for improvement. So Calming Influence it is at 9/2.
3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes (WON +0.91 - an excellent ride by Christophe Lemaire to get his mare up at the right time and win by 3/4 of a length)
Only four years of history for this race, but Sir Michael Stoute won the first two runnings, and his runner here, Heaven Sent commands respect. However, it is the French raider Sabana Perdida who takes my fancy here. She was third in this race last year, went on to win a Group 3 at Longchamp in September, and definitely seems to have come on again with a Group 3 win at Lingfield last month. With Darjina going very close yesterday, Alain De Royer-Dupre's horses look in fine form, and I expect him to break his Ascot duck in this race.
3.45 Prince of Wales's Stakes (5th -0.09 - got squeezed out with 2f to go, but probably wouldn't have got to Duke of Marmalade, but may have made the frame)
The biggest prize of the day and it pays to watch the market. Only one winner has been priced higher than 8/1 in the last 10 years and we have seen favourites win 2 of the last 3 renewals. So a lot of focus will fall on Aidan O'Brien's Duke of Marmalade. However, before thos two recent victories for favourites, its a long way back for another favourite, and I'm tempted to go for some each way value with a shout of winning in Ask. He had a light campaign last year after an infection, but won by 2lengths over 1m4f here at Ascot in September, carrying a 3lb penalty, and then won at Sandown over today's trip at Sandown in April. Ryan Moore seemed to have something in hand that day, and 8/1 seems much better value than 6/4 about Duke of Marmalade.
4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (5th -1.09 - missed the break badly and then the low draws came to the fore, so in actual fact did well to snatch 5th but never troubled the front 4)
A 30 runner handicap at first glance looks like a minefield, but this race contains my nap of the day. Its rare you get such a hoodwinking of the handicapper at big meetings, but Luca Cumani's Bankable is a full stone ahead of the handicapper, and with only 5 runs so far, carefully managed, he could have room for further improvement. Two of those runs were piloted by Frankie at Ascot, one last September, one in April, with wins on GF,GS and Soft, and has won races both from being held up and from in touch with the leaders, its difficult to see how he can get beat. 2/1 sounds skinny for a 30 strong field, but with these credentials the colt may even go off at a smaller price.
4.55 Queen Mary Stakes (4th -2.09 - a neck short of the each way money, she ran an excellent race)
From a huge handicap to a 2 year old fillies race. This race, like the other sprints at Ascot has a heavy bias to those with a high draw. Mick Channon has won this race three times in 10 years, and with his runner, Lucky leigh being drawn 15 of the 17 runners, I will be having another each way bet. Difficult to tell how good her maiden win was, but she moved well and clearly liked the ground. I wouldn't be risking big stakes on this, but 16/1 is chunky enough to have a little after tea flutter on the BBC's last race of the day.
5.30 Sandringham Handicap (3rd -1.59 - ran on well after nearly running into the back of Makaaseb down the back straight)
I'm finding this the most difficult to pick of the day and with the BBC's coverage having finished I may just not bother, but if you do want to have a bet, bear in mind, only two winners of this have carried over 9st in the last 10 years - and those two were the top weights in avergae races. I don't think Eva's Request is in that situation this year so I'm looking at the lower horses on the card. And its Shabiba I'm focussing on. This fillie was disappointing in the Nell Gwynn at Newmarket in April, but showed her true forn to take a handicap at Newbury last month, and showed that stepping up to a mile from 7f may suit. I repeat my caveats, and at 8/1 it will be an each way bet, but if you do need a bet, then this would be my tip.
You have to go back a long way to find a winner of this carrying a penalty, and 9 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the lower half of the draw. So that has cut the field to half a dozen already, which includes my fancy for this first race, Calming Influence. He beat Stimulation by a head last time out in a Listed race, and despite Stimulation meeting him 4lbs better off today, I expect Saeed Bin Suroor's runner to have come on more than the experienced horse, and Stimulation is drawn high. Red Alert was a further neck back, but again doesn't have the room for improvement. So Calming Influence it is at 9/2.
3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes (WON +0.91 - an excellent ride by Christophe Lemaire to get his mare up at the right time and win by 3/4 of a length)
Only four years of history for this race, but Sir Michael Stoute won the first two runnings, and his runner here, Heaven Sent commands respect. However, it is the French raider Sabana Perdida who takes my fancy here. She was third in this race last year, went on to win a Group 3 at Longchamp in September, and definitely seems to have come on again with a Group 3 win at Lingfield last month. With Darjina going very close yesterday, Alain De Royer-Dupre's horses look in fine form, and I expect him to break his Ascot duck in this race.
3.45 Prince of Wales's Stakes (5th -0.09 - got squeezed out with 2f to go, but probably wouldn't have got to Duke of Marmalade, but may have made the frame)
The biggest prize of the day and it pays to watch the market. Only one winner has been priced higher than 8/1 in the last 10 years and we have seen favourites win 2 of the last 3 renewals. So a lot of focus will fall on Aidan O'Brien's Duke of Marmalade. However, before thos two recent victories for favourites, its a long way back for another favourite, and I'm tempted to go for some each way value with a shout of winning in Ask. He had a light campaign last year after an infection, but won by 2lengths over 1m4f here at Ascot in September, carrying a 3lb penalty, and then won at Sandown over today's trip at Sandown in April. Ryan Moore seemed to have something in hand that day, and 8/1 seems much better value than 6/4 about Duke of Marmalade.
4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (5th -1.09 - missed the break badly and then the low draws came to the fore, so in actual fact did well to snatch 5th but never troubled the front 4)
A 30 runner handicap at first glance looks like a minefield, but this race contains my nap of the day. Its rare you get such a hoodwinking of the handicapper at big meetings, but Luca Cumani's Bankable is a full stone ahead of the handicapper, and with only 5 runs so far, carefully managed, he could have room for further improvement. Two of those runs were piloted by Frankie at Ascot, one last September, one in April, with wins on GF,GS and Soft, and has won races both from being held up and from in touch with the leaders, its difficult to see how he can get beat. 2/1 sounds skinny for a 30 strong field, but with these credentials the colt may even go off at a smaller price.
4.55 Queen Mary Stakes (4th -2.09 - a neck short of the each way money, she ran an excellent race)
From a huge handicap to a 2 year old fillies race. This race, like the other sprints at Ascot has a heavy bias to those with a high draw. Mick Channon has won this race three times in 10 years, and with his runner, Lucky leigh being drawn 15 of the 17 runners, I will be having another each way bet. Difficult to tell how good her maiden win was, but she moved well and clearly liked the ground. I wouldn't be risking big stakes on this, but 16/1 is chunky enough to have a little after tea flutter on the BBC's last race of the day.
5.30 Sandringham Handicap (3rd -1.59 - ran on well after nearly running into the back of Makaaseb down the back straight)
I'm finding this the most difficult to pick of the day and with the BBC's coverage having finished I may just not bother, but if you do want to have a bet, bear in mind, only two winners of this have carried over 9st in the last 10 years - and those two were the top weights in avergae races. I don't think Eva's Request is in that situation this year so I'm looking at the lower horses on the card. And its Shabiba I'm focussing on. This fillie was disappointing in the Nell Gwynn at Newmarket in April, but showed her true forn to take a handicap at Newbury last month, and showed that stepping up to a mile from 7f may suit. I repeat my caveats, and at 8/1 it will be an each way bet, but if you do need a bet, then this would be my tip.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Hope you spread betters took my advice yesterday. I dont see the market makers adjusting their view as they will get slammed by the arb players out there so chance to make hay. Yes there may be the odd one you get burned on but over the tournament you will be up. And while we're talking off piste bets, I've taken a friendly fiver with the leading captain of the Middlesex County Cricket League. I've offered him 6/1 Windies to win the third test. Any more takers out there?
3.20 Beverley River Kent 5/4 (2nd -2.92 - maybe a classic case of seconditis here. Looked like he'd set the race up nicely to win, but didn't press home in final furlong and lost by a length)
The standout on form in the field, and with his last run being over course and distance and missing out by a nose he has to be the one to beat today, despite a 3lb rise.
5.00 Portugal to beat Czech Republic 5/6 (WON -2.09 - not the most convincing from Portugal, but they're through, and a final game against already eliminated Switzerland should now be routine)
The Czech performance wasn't as bad as some people would have you believe. They were comfortable without ever really being tested by the Swiss. However, Portugal were as impressive as suggested, and you just felt they could go up a gear if needed. The Czechs are big and physical but aging, and the pace and play of Deco, Ronaldo, Simao etc should expose that weakness and put Portugal as good as through.
3.20 Beverley River Kent 5/4 (2nd -2.92 - maybe a classic case of seconditis here. Looked like he'd set the race up nicely to win, but didn't press home in final furlong and lost by a length)
The standout on form in the field, and with his last run being over course and distance and missing out by a nose he has to be the one to beat today, despite a 3lb rise.
5.00 Portugal to beat Czech Republic 5/6 (WON -2.09 - not the most convincing from Portugal, but they're through, and a final game against already eliminated Switzerland should now be routine)
The Czech performance wasn't as bad as some people would have you believe. They were comfortable without ever really being tested by the Swiss. However, Portugal were as impressive as suggested, and you just felt they could go up a gear if needed. The Czechs are big and physical but aging, and the pace and play of Deco, Ronaldo, Simao etc should expose that weakness and put Portugal as good as through.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
An interesting day in Switzerland after four fairly predictable results over the weekend. For spread betters out there, I reckon the market makers are over-estimating bookings. The refs all seem pretty sensible so far, and there don't seem to be any crazy directives. Not one match has had any more than 4 bookings so far, but the spread firms still have the markets in the high 40s.
3.00 Redcar Comghaire 5/2 (LOST -1.17 - led at halfway but faded and didn't get home)
This fillie showed a lot of promise when third in a claimer last time out, and hence was claimed. His trainer had a winner in a claimer yesterday, and I've mentioned before I like Tom Eaves as a jockey. Inca Slew is the pick of Pat Haslam's trio and is the danger for me, but the whole package of Comghaire gives me confidence to plump for this one.
5.00 Torres 1st Goal 9/2 e/w (LOST -2.17 - what price Spain to score 4 and Torres not score at least one?!? If they keep playing like that though his goals will come)
I don't need to tell you how good Fernando Torres is. The question really is Will the real Spain turn up at last? There's a growing belief they will, and if so, Torres is a good bet for golden boot at 7/1. He's a poacher, a finisher, and a self-creater, and could be the key to Spain going all the way. Bet365 offer 1/3 odds for all goals scored as e/w terms, so 6/4 Torres to score at any time seems good value to me.
5.30 Redcar South Wales 6/1 e/w (2nd -1.92 - from halfway it looked like he might win this, but was just a nek short in the end. Good performance though)
Stuart Williams' charge didn't show anything on the all-weather around the mile distance, but my ex-trainer is shrewd and moved the gelding up to 10 furlongs on turf and he took to it really well. Nicky Mackay rides again, and while there are several in the field with chances, SC could be picking up another winner. If the price starts coming in, I'll be doubly sure!
3.00 Redcar Comghaire 5/2 (LOST -1.17 - led at halfway but faded and didn't get home)
This fillie showed a lot of promise when third in a claimer last time out, and hence was claimed. His trainer had a winner in a claimer yesterday, and I've mentioned before I like Tom Eaves as a jockey. Inca Slew is the pick of Pat Haslam's trio and is the danger for me, but the whole package of Comghaire gives me confidence to plump for this one.
5.00 Torres 1st Goal 9/2 e/w (LOST -2.17 - what price Spain to score 4 and Torres not score at least one?!? If they keep playing like that though his goals will come)
I don't need to tell you how good Fernando Torres is. The question really is Will the real Spain turn up at last? There's a growing belief they will, and if so, Torres is a good bet for golden boot at 7/1. He's a poacher, a finisher, and a self-creater, and could be the key to Spain going all the way. Bet365 offer 1/3 odds for all goals scored as e/w terms, so 6/4 Torres to score at any time seems good value to me.
5.30 Redcar South Wales 6/1 e/w (2nd -1.92 - from halfway it looked like he might win this, but was just a nek short in the end. Good performance though)
Stuart Williams' charge didn't show anything on the all-weather around the mile distance, but my ex-trainer is shrewd and moved the gelding up to 10 furlongs on turf and he took to it really well. Nicky Mackay rides again, and while there are several in the field with chances, SC could be picking up another winner. If the price starts coming in, I'll be doubly sure!
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Tennis and Racing
A profitable day to start the month, and I hope some of you got the SP on our bumper winner. Remember Bet365 will give you the better odds of the price at the time or the SP, so your 3/1 early price would have paid the 11/2 SP on that one. Big sporting weekend ahead, so lets try and build up some kitty...
2.00 Fernando Gonzalez +7games v Roger Federer 5/6 (WON +1.83 - Gonzalez took the first set so the final margin was 5 games)
On clay, Federer's average supremacy over Gonzalez is 7.5 games, but Fernando is playing some of his best tennis in a long time, and while I don't seeing him upsetting the formbook, I can see him making it less than easy for the Fed and maybe nicking a set. Bet365 offer Gonzo+6.5games, but Sportingbet go with +7 and if its 7 games the bet is void. So Fed needs to win by 8 games for us to lose.
5.30 Fontwell Massini Moon 5/2 (LOST +0.83 - the leaders went away from our horse with a furlong to go although he did stay on well for 3rd)
Yes, ok another bumper! But Gary Moore's horse ran very well last week, and with the inexperience of the rest of the field, looks a good bet to go one better here today.
6.40 Kempton Spoof Master e/w 5/1 (LOST -0.17 - led into the final furlong but was edged out of it in the run-in, finishing 5th 1.5 lengths back)
6 places in his last 7 runs, all over 5 furlongs, and two at Kempton. Still not moved up in the weights and so has real chances of a win tonight, but will surely be in the mix of this 12-runner handicap. Remember its 1/4 odds 1-2-3 if there are no non-runners.
2.00 Fernando Gonzalez +7games v Roger Federer 5/6 (WON +1.83 - Gonzalez took the first set so the final margin was 5 games)
On clay, Federer's average supremacy over Gonzalez is 7.5 games, but Fernando is playing some of his best tennis in a long time, and while I don't seeing him upsetting the formbook, I can see him making it less than easy for the Fed and maybe nicking a set. Bet365 offer Gonzo+6.5games, but Sportingbet go with +7 and if its 7 games the bet is void. So Fed needs to win by 8 games for us to lose.
5.30 Fontwell Massini Moon 5/2 (LOST +0.83 - the leaders went away from our horse with a furlong to go although he did stay on well for 3rd)
Yes, ok another bumper! But Gary Moore's horse ran very well last week, and with the inexperience of the rest of the field, looks a good bet to go one better here today.
6.40 Kempton Spoof Master e/w 5/1 (LOST -0.17 - led into the final furlong but was edged out of it in the run-in, finishing 5th 1.5 lengths back)
6 places in his last 7 runs, all over 5 furlongs, and two at Kempton. Still not moved up in the weights and so has real chances of a win tonight, but will surely be in the mix of this 12-runner handicap. Remember its 1/4 odds 1-2-3 if there are no non-runners.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Tennis, Cricket and Racing
Well I'm back from Canada now and some good punting on the ice hockey while I was there. More of that tomorrow when it goes to game 6. For today its the red clay of Paris, the white wickets of Trinidad and the green grass of Folkestone and Sedgefield in a bumper batch of tips!
1.00 Ivanovic 2-0 and Nadal 3-0 7/6 (WON +1.00 - easier than I anticipated even! Ivanovic won 6-3, 6-2, and Rafa 6-1, 6-1, 6-1)
Both of these two are on fire. Ivanovic has lsot just 15 games in her 4 matches so far, which was 15 in 3 before she won 6-0, 6-0 on Sunday to reinforce her form. Patty Schnyder is a reasonable player, but doesn't trouble the top players these days, as witnessed by the fact she beat Ivanovic on their first four meetings, but Ana has won the last three - two in straight sets, and 6-0, 6-2 last time out.
Rafael Nadal has been almost more impressive than Ivanovic on his favourite surface. He has lost 22 games in 4 matches (remember the men are best of 5 sets), and he has beaten his fellow countryman Nicolas Almagro in straight sets on both their previous meetings - both of which were on clay. Almagro has squeezed through some tight sets - 7 of his 11 sets have require more than the standard 6 games to win the set - but those are the type of sets Nadal thrives on, especially at Roland Garros.
2.30 Australia to beat West Indies 13/10 (LOST +0.00 - 3 wickets in the first session was a great start but as mentioned possible, Chanderpaul dug in with excellent help from Sarwan and saw it through)
An unbelievable 3 over burst of 5 wickets for 5 runs from Brett Lee breathed life back into this test. With a 371 lead now, Australia are expected to declare overnight, leaving a day for them to roll the Windies again. With the way they crumbled yesterday and in the second innings of the last test, and the Aussies lost 6 wickets in 60 overs too, there has to be a good chance of a result, especially if Lee et al can get Chanderpaul cheaply. At better than evens, its worth a shout.
7.05 Sedgefield Dyneburg e/w 11/2 (LOST -1.00 - was in the hunt til weakened from 3 out, may not have liked the ground with the extra rain)
A consistent performer over hurdles and the best horse in the race on BHB ratings, I expect this horse to be on the premises at the business end of the race and with no obvious underexposed type, could go very close.
8.20 Folkestone Dawn Mystery e/w 11/2 (LOST -2.00 - looked to be making a challenge 2f out, but weakened with a furlong to go)
Looked to be going nowhere fast until put in a much improved run in first-time blinkers at Yarmouth last week with today's jockey on board. A repeat of that will go close again as he stayed on well over the 1f shorter trip and his breeding backs that up.
9.05 Sedgefield Wheyaye 3/1 (WON +1.00 - the market got this all wrong as our horse drifted to 6/1 at one point before going off at 11/2. Looked like he might be beat when headed in the final furlong but battled on gamely to take the lead back)
I'm not a big bumper backer usually, but this thing looked impressive when only missing out by 1/2 length at 66/1 on his debut to a horse who had good point-to-point form. Anything like a repeat of that form and 3/1 will be very tasty, and add another victory to the Hamilton/Aspell partnership whish is 21% in last 5 seasons and returned £57.80 to a £1 stake!
1.00 Ivanovic 2-0 and Nadal 3-0 7/6 (WON +1.00 - easier than I anticipated even! Ivanovic won 6-3, 6-2, and Rafa 6-1, 6-1, 6-1)
Both of these two are on fire. Ivanovic has lsot just 15 games in her 4 matches so far, which was 15 in 3 before she won 6-0, 6-0 on Sunday to reinforce her form. Patty Schnyder is a reasonable player, but doesn't trouble the top players these days, as witnessed by the fact she beat Ivanovic on their first four meetings, but Ana has won the last three - two in straight sets, and 6-0, 6-2 last time out.
Rafael Nadal has been almost more impressive than Ivanovic on his favourite surface. He has lost 22 games in 4 matches (remember the men are best of 5 sets), and he has beaten his fellow countryman Nicolas Almagro in straight sets on both their previous meetings - both of which were on clay. Almagro has squeezed through some tight sets - 7 of his 11 sets have require more than the standard 6 games to win the set - but those are the type of sets Nadal thrives on, especially at Roland Garros.
2.30 Australia to beat West Indies 13/10 (LOST +0.00 - 3 wickets in the first session was a great start but as mentioned possible, Chanderpaul dug in with excellent help from Sarwan and saw it through)
An unbelievable 3 over burst of 5 wickets for 5 runs from Brett Lee breathed life back into this test. With a 371 lead now, Australia are expected to declare overnight, leaving a day for them to roll the Windies again. With the way they crumbled yesterday and in the second innings of the last test, and the Aussies lost 6 wickets in 60 overs too, there has to be a good chance of a result, especially if Lee et al can get Chanderpaul cheaply. At better than evens, its worth a shout.
7.05 Sedgefield Dyneburg e/w 11/2 (LOST -1.00 - was in the hunt til weakened from 3 out, may not have liked the ground with the extra rain)
A consistent performer over hurdles and the best horse in the race on BHB ratings, I expect this horse to be on the premises at the business end of the race and with no obvious underexposed type, could go very close.
8.20 Folkestone Dawn Mystery e/w 11/2 (LOST -2.00 - looked to be making a challenge 2f out, but weakened with a furlong to go)
Looked to be going nowhere fast until put in a much improved run in first-time blinkers at Yarmouth last week with today's jockey on board. A repeat of that will go close again as he stayed on well over the 1f shorter trip and his breeding backs that up.
9.05 Sedgefield Wheyaye 3/1 (WON +1.00 - the market got this all wrong as our horse drifted to 6/1 at one point before going off at 11/2. Looked like he might be beat when headed in the final furlong but battled on gamely to take the lead back)
I'm not a big bumper backer usually, but this thing looked impressive when only missing out by 1/2 length at 66/1 on his debut to a horse who had good point-to-point form. Anything like a repeat of that form and 3/1 will be very tasty, and add another victory to the Hamilton/Aspell partnership whish is 21% in last 5 seasons and returned £57.80 to a £1 stake!
May Summary
A pretty quiet month, but a profitable one nonethelss. A few more short-priced winners, but better a short-priced winner than a long-priced loser!
Get ready for a Euro 08 onslaught...
May profit : £4.47
Success rate : 57% (13/23)
Overall profit : £20.17
Overall success : 40% (94/236)
Get ready for a Euro 08 onslaught...
May profit : £4.47
Success rate : 57% (13/23)
Overall profit : £20.17
Overall success : 40% (94/236)
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