Racing

The last day of the month and an erratic month for tipping, so firstly apologies. Secondly, we will now attempt to get back into the black for the month today. And thirdly it has to be good for football that the Spanish won last night. Good work Nando!

1.00 Hewitt to beat Federer 14/1 (LOST -2.71 - Had his chance in the first set, but once the tie break had gone it was one way traffic)
I just have a sense that this year everyone is expecting a Federer v Nadal showdown, but it could end up with neither in the final. And one man who is capable of turning over the slightly camp Swiss master is the former world number one Hewitt. He hasn't beaten Federer since 2004, but few players have, but he has won 7 of their 20 meetings overall, which must be one of the best percentages around against Federer, other than Nadal. Earlier this year he fell to his lowest ranking for 10 years, but Tony Roche, who knows a thing or two about playing and coaching at Wimbledon has started to turn things around, and after a testing 5 setter in the first round, he has cruised through his last two matches looking like the old Hewitt. Federer, has of course, also looked perfectly at home on grass as usual, but with his form so far this year not at his usual standards, if Hewitt can get into him early he may have a chance, and 14/1 may seem a big price. Hewitt is a long shot, but not 14/1.

1.00 Hewitt +8 games v Federer 5/6 (WON -1.88 - Snook in by one game!)
As discussed above, I expect Hewitt to push him closer than the bookies do, so the handicap bet should be nice insurance.

4.00 Gasquet beat Murray 13/10 (LOST -2.88 - Does anything need saying, other than questioning whether an Asian betting syndicate might have been involved? The nation's press dare not mention it, but would it surprise you with such as turnaround?)
Both these players have only dropped one set so far, and both are seen as their nation's future tennis star, with Gasquet just one ranking ahead of Murray. They have played each other twice, both on hard courts, Murray only taking one of the five sets. Murray has a 3rd round and a fourth round appearance whereas Gasquet has a 4th round appearance and reached the semi-final last year. So who should be favourite? Well believe it or not, Murray is 8/11 and Gasquet 13/10! Classic case as patriotic betting allowing an opportunity for the level-headed punter.

7.10 Windsor Green Lagonda 2/1 (3rd -3.88 - Couldnt go with the winner, but plugged on. Maybe 7f is his trip?)
Ran well over 7f at Redcar the weekend before last, but looked like confirming 6f is his distance now. Back down to a mark he has won off previously and the booking of Richard Hughes fresh from his Group 1 win at Saint Cloud yesterday speaks volumes. He won't be a big price, but better a short priced winner than a long priced loser.

8.55 Musselburgh Low Flyer 14/5 (LAST -4.88 - an awful ride by Silvestre. Held the horse up at the rear of the field and then never put it in the race
A speculative punt this one - the horse is the best in the field IF he finds his form and it is that inconsistency that has been his problem. But with an 8 runner field and the fantastically named Sivestre de Souza in good form onboard, I'm going to give Low Flyer one last chance.

9.10 Windsor Stand In Flames 16/5 (4th -5.88 - Came to the fore with a furlong to go but didnt quite get home)
Has proved his versatility on the going in his two runs this year, and been unlucky to have come up against good unexposed sorts both times. There doesn't seem to be one of those lurking in this field, so time for him to get off the mark in 2008.