City Punter's Ascot Day Four Preview

A good day yesterday with South Central winning the first, and a nice 7/1 winner in the last to round the day off. Here's today's thoughts...

2.30 Albany Stakes (WON +3.38 - worried odds on backers at the halfway stage but stayed on strongly to justify the price)

Another race to keep your stakes low on with little form to go on, but I'd want to be on a horse that has at least proved it can win a race before coming here, and of those wins, the most impressive one so far has to be Cuis Ghaire's Group 3 win at Naas over today's trip on the same going. She made all that day, as on her previous start, won by 3.5 lengths and was still going strongly at the end. Mick Channon's Please Sing and the French horse Jet D'Eau ridden by Frankie Dettori may fight it out for the minor honours, and Cuis Ghaire will be a short price, but for good reason in my view.

3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (LOST +2.38 - Bronze Cannon had no usual sprint up the straight and the winner broke the betting trend. However, I'm not sure Ryan Moore will count this as his best ride as Conduit was probably the best horse in the race)

Well nothing outside the first three in the market has won this race for 15 years, so we immediately strip the field down to Conduit, Bronze Cannon and Hebridean. And with the three trainers all having won this race in the last 4 years, there is little to choose between the three. But I'm going to plump for John Gosden's Bronze Cannon. Unbeaten this season, having not run on turf in his juvenile year, he won a handicap at Newmarket in April despite Jimmy Fortune dropping his reins in the final furlong, beating Doctor Fremantle who went on to win the Chester Vase and finish 4th in the Derby. He then won his prep race easily, before connections decided to duck the Derby to presumably keep him fresh for today's race. Bear in mind Derby runners have a very poor record in this race and we have another reason why 4/1 might be a nice price for this horse.

3.45 Coronation Stakes (4th +1.38 - Infallible turned the Newmarket form around and both were beaten by an Irish raider. Infallible didnt seem his usual self)

5 favourites have won this race in the last nine years, and only Indian Ink last year at 8/1 won at a price bigger than 6/1. With Spacious and Infallible vying for favouritism at 3/1 and 7/2 respectively, and 7/1 bar this pair, I'm not considering anything else. And for me I would make the differential between these two greater on the evidence of the 1000 Guineas. Spacious was making her seasonal debut that day, and finished 3/4 of a length ahead of Infallible, who had the benefit of a previous run under her belt. I would expect that margin to be wider this afternoon and 3/1 may not be available nearer the start time.

4.20 Wolferton Handicap (NON RUNNER - but another double digit priced winner of this race)

Four year olds have won the last five runnings of this race and 7 of the last 8. And the favourite hasn't won since 1999, with only a second and a third to show, and the last three winners have won at 25/1, 16/1 and 25/1! So I'm hoping my fancy drifts slightly to second favourite! I will also caveat this horse, by saying keep your stakes low, as he has gone up 13lbs in the handicap for his last win, and it is never easy to tell how a horse will react to such a leap. However, he did win easily last time with the official distance 4.5 lengths, but was obviously eased down towards the line. He's proven over the trip, still going strongly over 10f in his maiden victory, which was on good ground, so I don't see today's slightly quicker ground worrying him. I'm hoping all 16 horses stay in so we can get each way for 4 places, and I will then happily have Bushman on my side.

4.55 Queen's Vase (9th +0.38 - neither of Mark Johnston's horses ran well, but another short-priced favourite wins this race)

Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race four times in the last seven years, and with only two horses longer than 7/1 (and only 9/1 and 11/1 at that) winning in the last 10 years, his favoured runner Captain Webb at 13/2 looks one to follow. The one guess for this race is the staying ability of the horses, but Captain Webb stayed on strongly from 2f out in his win in a Listed race over 11f at Hamilton a month ago, so for me I'm as confident as I can be that this horse will get the trip. You've probably guessed its not one to lump on, but an each way interest is worthwhile.

5.30 Buckingham Palace Stakes (LOST -0.62 - the result proved it was best to avoid but congratulations if you did pick the 25/1 winner, 551/1 forecast, or 9965/1 tricast!)

This really is a race to steer clear of. A 30 runner handicap which has only been run 6 times, and won by horses aged 4 to 8, carrying 8st5 to 9st12, by six different trainers and at prices from 8/1 to 33/1. So who knows what it takes to win this race! If you do feel like a bet though I'll give you a horse for an each way run. Our Faye recently won a handicap at Goodwood and won a Class 2 handicap here at Ascot last August. Admittedly both were off 8lbs lower than today's mark, but at 25/1 this mare should give you an interest.