Ascot Day 2

2.30 Jersey Stakes (LOST -3.09 - didn't really get home and may need slower ground)

You have to go back a long way to find a winner of this carrying a penalty, and 9 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the lower half of the draw. So that has cut the field to half a dozen already, which includes my fancy for this first race, Calming Influence. He beat Stimulation by a head last time out in a Listed race, and despite Stimulation meeting him 4lbs better off today, I expect Saeed Bin Suroor's runner to have come on more than the experienced horse, and Stimulation is drawn high. Red Alert was a further neck back, but again doesn't have the room for improvement. So Calming Influence it is at 9/2.

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes (WON +0.91 - an excellent ride by Christophe Lemaire to get his mare up at the right time and win by 3/4 of a length)

Only four years of history for this race, but Sir Michael Stoute won the first two runnings, and his runner here, Heaven Sent commands respect. However, it is the French raider Sabana Perdida who takes my fancy here. She was third in this race last year, went on to win a Group 3 at Longchamp in September, and definitely seems to have come on again with a Group 3 win at Lingfield last month. With Darjina going very close yesterday, Alain De Royer-Dupre's horses look in fine form, and I expect him to break his Ascot duck in this race.

3.45 Prince of Wales's Stakes (5th -0.09 - got squeezed out with 2f to go, but probably wouldn't have got to Duke of Marmalade, but may have made the frame)

The biggest prize of the day and it pays to watch the market. Only one winner has been priced higher than 8/1 in the last 10 years and we have seen favourites win 2 of the last 3 renewals. So a lot of focus will fall on Aidan O'Brien's Duke of Marmalade. However, before thos two recent victories for favourites, its a long way back for another favourite, and I'm tempted to go for some each way value with a shout of winning in Ask. He had a light campaign last year after an infection, but won by 2lengths over 1m4f here at Ascot in September, carrying a 3lb penalty, and then won at Sandown over today's trip at Sandown in April. Ryan Moore seemed to have something in hand that day, and 8/1 seems much better value than 6/4 about Duke of Marmalade.

4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (5th -1.09 - missed the break badly and then the low draws came to the fore, so in actual fact did well to snatch 5th but never troubled the front 4)

A 30 runner handicap at first glance looks like a minefield, but this race contains my nap of the day. Its rare you get such a hoodwinking of the handicapper at big meetings, but Luca Cumani's Bankable is a full stone ahead of the handicapper, and with only 5 runs so far, carefully managed, he could have room for further improvement. Two of those runs were piloted by Frankie at Ascot, one last September, one in April, with wins on GF,GS and Soft, and has won races both from being held up and from in touch with the leaders, its difficult to see how he can get beat. 2/1 sounds skinny for a 30 strong field, but with these credentials the colt may even go off at a smaller price.

4.55 Queen Mary Stakes (4th -2.09 - a neck short of the each way money, she ran an excellent race)

From a huge handicap to a 2 year old fillies race. This race, like the other sprints at Ascot has a heavy bias to those with a high draw. Mick Channon has won this race three times in 10 years, and with his runner, Lucky leigh being drawn 15 of the 17 runners, I will be having another each way bet. Difficult to tell how good her maiden win was, but she moved well and clearly liked the ground. I wouldn't be risking big stakes on this, but 16/1 is chunky enough to have a little after tea flutter on the BBC's last race of the day.

5.30 Sandringham Handicap (3rd -1.59 - ran on well after nearly running into the back of Makaaseb down the back straight)

I'm finding this the most difficult to pick of the day and with the BBC's coverage having finished I may just not bother, but if you do want to have a bet, bear in mind, only two winners of this have carried over 9st in the last 10 years - and those two were the top weights in avergae races. I don't think Eva's Request is in that situation this year so I'm looking at the lower horses on the card. And its Shabiba I'm focussing on. This fillie was disappointing in the Nell Gwynn at Newmarket in April, but showed her true forn to take a handicap at Newbury last month, and showed that stepping up to a mile from 7f may suit. I repeat my caveats, and at 8/1 it will be an each way bet, but if you do need a bet, then this would be my tip.