Ascot Day Three

A flat to slightly up day yesterday with the 4/1 victory for Sabana Perdida, and the place for Shabiba in the last. Here's today's thoughts...


2.30 Norfolk Stakes (South Central WON, Baycat LAST -0.34 - South Central made it 8 out of 10 favourites to win this race, while Baycat clearly showed a preference for slower groun d)

A difficult race to really get stuck into with those at the head of the market only having run once or twice. However, seven of the last nine runnings of this race have gone the way of the favourite or second favourite, and one of those that didn't went to the third favourite so don't go looking for a big priced winner here. South Central is almost certain to go off favourite and Cerito and Prolific will be battling for second favourite, so I would hold off on your bets until close to post time. With the very shrewd Mrs Findlay owning Cerito, if the money comes for this horse from her friends and relations it will be a big sign to join in the punt. But at the moment I would side with South Central at 7/2, as no winner in the last ten years has had longer than a month's rest between their maiden and this race. The other one that goes against this trend but has impressed me in his two runs so far, and will like the overnight shower just to freshen the ground, is an each way shout for Baycat at 14/1.

3.05 Ribblesdale Stakes (4th -1.34 - got barged as she tried to make her move but stayed on well)

This race has thrown up a few surprises in its time - we have to go back to 1998 for a winning favourite and have seen 5 double figure priced winners, with 2005 and 2006 seeing 22/1 and 25/1 shots landing the spoils. Again the winners tend to be lightly raced, so I will just have small stakes on an unexposed in-form horse that looks to get the trip. And for me I will have another each way go on Icon Project. On a straight form line, she should finish behind Dar Re Mi who beat her by 7 lengths at Sandown and Cape Amber who subsequently beat Dar Re Mi, but Icon Project had definitely come on in her second run and has potential to come on again for that when stepping up to a mile and a half. Keep your stakes small again but 20/1 each way looks the one for me.

3.45 Gold Cup (3rd -2.34 - so the fairy story was completed and impressively so by Yeats. I fortunately took all three mentioned in the tricast but that doesn't count here!)

So the fairy story is Yeats completing a hat-trick of Gold Cups, and he will likely go off favourite to do so. But he will become the first horse over six years old to win the Gold Cup in 68 years! And with last year's runner up, Geordieland, also now seven, it just reinforces my belief that Andre Fabre's unbeaten Coastal Path is something special. Six runs, six wins, and a comfortable 5 lengths victory in a Group 2 at Longchamps last month, suggest this horse has greatness in him, and at 4, he could repeat Yeats double. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Avail yourself of the 2/1 - time to put some proper money down!

4.20 Britannia Stakes (LOST -3.34 - The analysis of the race was right, with a sub 9lb low drawn horse wining it, but we got the wrong one!)

I'm not going to make the mistake of ignoring the weight stats like I did with Bankable yesterday. Like yesterday's big handicap, just three of the last 19 winners have carried over 9st. The other big point to take from yesterday's Hunt Cup, was that a low draw is clearly preferable in these events, and so I am going with the horse in stall number 1, Hurricane Hymnbook. He was second to Ibn Khaldun at Ascot last September, before that horse went on to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, and his one run this season was a neck second to Staying On who won the big Betfred Bowl handicap at Haydock. The experience of Mick Kinane will help, and I think 10/1 represents excellent value and you should get a good run for your money - each way at that price in a 30 runner field of course!

4.55 Hampton Court Stakes (LOST-4.34 - Kensington Oval missed the break and never got into the race after that. But another second favourite won the race)

The analysis of this race is fairly straightforward. The favourite has won tow of the last three runnings of this race, and Sir Michael Stoute has the first two horses in the market. The favourite, Dr Faustus, won under stable jockey Ryan Moore in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket last month. The second favourite, Kensington Oval, is largely unknown with only a win in a maiden at Sandown for us to go on, when Ryan Moore saw him home going away from the field a fortnight ago. And so which does Ryan plump for today? The latter. For me, if anyone can choose between them the jockey who's won recently on them both should, so that's a good enough recommendation for me. Kensington Oval at 6/1 to be walked into the winners enclosure by his owner, Her Majesty's Representative at Ascot and chairman of Ascot Racecourse, the Duke of Devonshire.

5.30 King George V Handicap (WON +2.64 - the handicap trends continued and Colony ran an excellent race to finish the day off)

Another handicap with the 9st ceiling applying. The last 6 winners have all carried less than 9st and Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have won nine of the last 15 runnings of this race. So its down to Colony or Missioner for me. And Colony has shown form in better races, and looks the more likely to make the step up from 10f to 12f, on the evidence of his runs this season. So another winner for the Stoute/Moore combination to wrap up the day at 7/1.