Another delve into the football world after last week's near miss.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Football
As I mentioned in my October Update work has held me back from punting lately, but tonight there is a treble I really like the look of.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
October Update
Work haspicked up again so been a bit quiet on the punting front. Apologies!
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Football
Been a difficult few days to find good bets, but tonight there are a trio of football bets in three different formats. Surely there can't be as many goals tonight as last night, can there???
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Cricket
Another winner last night and Ronnie has seen off Marco Fu 5-1 this afternoon. That 2/1 was already 7/4 by this morning, and could well be in to nearly evens now. Am considering a golf bet for tomorrow, but for now its back to India.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Football and Snooker
Apologies for the lack of posts but the first couple of days of the international week have been slow and bare in terms of good bets, but there are a couple today.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Football
European rugby tonight, but I don't like the first round of cross-border competitions as there are too many unknowns. So I'm just sticking to tonight's league two clash. The cricket is developing nicely with India doing well to dismiss the Aussies for 430 after their start, and Sehwag looking in the mood.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Football and Darts
Gradually the sporting action is ramping back up towards the weekend. And Thursday night is darts night. The Premier League is not back yet, but every night this week we have the Sky Poker Grand Prix from Dublin, and all the big guns are out for the prize. And there's more non-league football to enjoy on Setanta. In amongst the highlights of the first day's play from Bangalore!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Cricket
Another quiet sporting day and no point in chasing bets when we're sat very nicely a week into the month. But a titanic clash starts tomorrow.
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Football
There's not much out there this week, although the darts might be a little more interesting as the week goes on, but tonight its the Johnstone Paints Trophy, giving Leeds an opportunity to relive those glory years of lifting silverware, and some Blue Square Premier games, which is where today's one bet comes from.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Football thoughts
Nothing worth betting on today, so we'll just nurse our winnings from last week and take a look at how things are shaping up now we have some meaningful form.
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Football and Rugby League
Still can't quite get a winner on the racetrack, but nice football and rugby wins again yesterday. So we'll drop the horses today and switch rugby codes to the Grand Final at Old Trafford. Always a cracking day out, and should be a tense tight affair.
3.00 West Brom to beat Fulham 11/8 (WON 1-0 +6.43 - West Brom in the top half and Fulham facing another long relegation battle)
After losing their first two games, West Brom will be happy to have 7 points from their last four games, getting a good point at Bolton, beating West Ham at home and then last week winning at The Riverside. Fulham however, after beating Arsenal and then Bolton, have lost three in a row if you include the League Cup loss at Burnley, and again including that they have lost all three away games, scoring just once. And on their comparative form you have to fancy the Baggies to make it to 10 points today.
3.00 Wigan bt Middlesbrough Evens (LOST 1-0 +5.43 - Boro finally win away in a game not for the purists!)
This match is very similar to the one above. Wigan lost their first two games - admittedly tough assignmenats at West Ham and home to Chelsea, but are unbeaten since then, hammering five past Hull, four past Ipswich in the League Cup and then last week beating the moneybags from Man City. Morale will be high at the JJB and a win today will confirm their top half spot. Boro have lost their last four games in all competitions, with their only wins this seaosn coming against Spurs and Stoke, and havent socred in the Premier League for 246 minutes. Wigan will relish this chance.
5.30 Rooney to score 1st goal 5/1 e/w (Scored 2nd goal +5.76 - 3 in 3 for Rooney)
The one criticism labelled against Wayne Rooney is that he doesnt score enough goals, but with Berbatov alongside him he shouldn't have to come so short to get involved in the play and his two goals in his last two may be the start of the final piece of the jigsaw coming together at United for this world class talent. 5/1 is available with the high street boys and you can get 1/3 odds for the first 5 scorers.
6.00 Leeds beat St Helens 5/2 (WON 24-16 +8.26 - a slow start but the resolute defence held up against an off-form Saints side, and some magic near the tryline saw Leeds defend their title)
The bookies clearly fancy Daniel Anderson's Saints to send him off in style, but it isn't always the season's best side who win the Old Trafford showpiece. In the last three years, St Helens finished top of the league but have only won the trophy once - in 2005 they didnt even make the final, and of course last year Leeds beat them. And over the season there is little between these sides. There was one point separating them at the top of the table, and the difference in points difference was less than 2 points per game. Yet the handicaps are 8 points, and Leeds are 5/2 against. In the regular season Leeds won 14-10 at Knowsley Road and Saints won 26-12 at Headingley. Yes Saints won the eliminator 38-10, but the safety not of the playoff would have seen Leeds ease off slightly when the game was gone. And yes Saints have had extra time to prepare, but as we have seen that theory doesnt hold in recent years. So yes Saints may send Daniel Anderson off in style but 5/2 seems too good to miss about Leeds.
3.00 West Brom to beat Fulham 11/8 (WON 1-0 +6.43 - West Brom in the top half and Fulham facing another long relegation battle)
After losing their first two games, West Brom will be happy to have 7 points from their last four games, getting a good point at Bolton, beating West Ham at home and then last week winning at The Riverside. Fulham however, after beating Arsenal and then Bolton, have lost three in a row if you include the League Cup loss at Burnley, and again including that they have lost all three away games, scoring just once. And on their comparative form you have to fancy the Baggies to make it to 10 points today.
3.00 Wigan bt Middlesbrough Evens (LOST 1-0 +5.43 - Boro finally win away in a game not for the purists!)
This match is very similar to the one above. Wigan lost their first two games - admittedly tough assignmenats at West Ham and home to Chelsea, but are unbeaten since then, hammering five past Hull, four past Ipswich in the League Cup and then last week beating the moneybags from Man City. Morale will be high at the JJB and a win today will confirm their top half spot. Boro have lost their last four games in all competitions, with their only wins this seaosn coming against Spurs and Stoke, and havent socred in the Premier League for 246 minutes. Wigan will relish this chance.
5.30 Rooney to score 1st goal 5/1 e/w (Scored 2nd goal +5.76 - 3 in 3 for Rooney)
The one criticism labelled against Wayne Rooney is that he doesnt score enough goals, but with Berbatov alongside him he shouldn't have to come so short to get involved in the play and his two goals in his last two may be the start of the final piece of the jigsaw coming together at United for this world class talent. 5/1 is available with the high street boys and you can get 1/3 odds for the first 5 scorers.
6.00 Leeds beat St Helens 5/2 (WON 24-16 +8.26 - a slow start but the resolute defence held up against an off-form Saints side, and some magic near the tryline saw Leeds defend their title)
The bookies clearly fancy Daniel Anderson's Saints to send him off in style, but it isn't always the season's best side who win the Old Trafford showpiece. In the last three years, St Helens finished top of the league but have only won the trophy once - in 2005 they didnt even make the final, and of course last year Leeds beat them. And over the season there is little between these sides. There was one point separating them at the top of the table, and the difference in points difference was less than 2 points per game. Yet the handicaps are 8 points, and Leeds are 5/2 against. In the regular season Leeds won 14-10 at Knowsley Road and Saints won 26-12 at Headingley. Yes Saints won the eliminator 38-10, but the safety not of the playoff would have seen Leeds ease off slightly when the game was gone. And yes Saints have had extra time to prepare, but as we have seen that theory doesnt hold in recent years. So yes Saints may send Daniel Anderson off in style but 5/2 seems too good to miss about Leeds.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
We gave back a touch of Wednesday's gains yesterday as I can't quite get a winner at the racetrack, but the rugby is going very well. Same combination of bets today though, but less horses!
4.45 Lingfield Trinkila 11/1 e/w (4th +1.14 - Unfortunately due to non-runners the place money fell from first four to first three, so we missed out by nearly 2 lengths)
This is a pretty average horse, but this is a very average race! She won her maiden (her only win so far) on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and a handful of those who trailed in behind her that day have done decently on the surface and held their ratings in the 70s. Trinkila was rated 75 after that race, but has now dropped to 59 after some poor runs earlier this year. She was however 5l 3rd over 10f last month, then 5th - just a length from winning, despite being crossed and having to renew efforts with a furlong to go. Without that interference she may well have won the race and would be more than 1lb up in the weights. Nothing in the race has any better all-weather form, so if she produces that last performance 11/1 could be a nice e/w return.
7.30 Edinburgh+6 to beat Ulster 10/11 (WON +2.05 - predictably tight low-scoring game which Ulster won by just 4 points)
Ulster are rock bottom of the Magners League as the only side yet to win a game, while Edinburgh perch above them with one win under their belts. But Ulster will be in pieces after a 43-0 thrashing at the hands of Ospreys last week, while Edinburgh fought out an 11-9 defeat at the Dragons, off the back of an impressive 32-12 victory over the Scarlets the week before, while Ulster went down at home to the Dragons. On that Dragons formline there isn't much between these sides - which is probably a fair reflection, but the morale should be higher in Scotland, and Ulster have made several changes which may take some time to work. Its another one where I can see Edinburgh winning outright at 15/8 but I'll take the safe handicap option with Totesport.
7.45 League One >2.5gls Double 3/1 (WON +5.05 - 10 goals in total as Hartlepool drew 3-3 and Stockport won 3-1)
Just the two matches tonight and both look like they could provide plenty of goals. Hartlepool have scored 3 or more goals in three of their four home games this season, as well as 3 against West Brom in the League Cup. They have also conceded 13 in their 8 league games. Swindon have only failed to score once and haven't kept a clean sheet all season so more than 2.5 goals in this match looks better than the evens on offer. Stockport have also scored in all bar one league game, and are shipping an average goal a game through their own net. While their opponents tonight, high-flying Oldham have treated their travelling fans to 8 goals on the road, while conceding 5 in those four games. You can also get evens on more than 2.5 goals in this game, so doubling up gives us a tasty 3/1.
4.45 Lingfield Trinkila 11/1 e/w (4th +1.14 - Unfortunately due to non-runners the place money fell from first four to first three, so we missed out by nearly 2 lengths)
This is a pretty average horse, but this is a very average race! She won her maiden (her only win so far) on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and a handful of those who trailed in behind her that day have done decently on the surface and held their ratings in the 70s. Trinkila was rated 75 after that race, but has now dropped to 59 after some poor runs earlier this year. She was however 5l 3rd over 10f last month, then 5th - just a length from winning, despite being crossed and having to renew efforts with a furlong to go. Without that interference she may well have won the race and would be more than 1lb up in the weights. Nothing in the race has any better all-weather form, so if she produces that last performance 11/1 could be a nice e/w return.
7.30 Edinburgh+6 to beat Ulster 10/11 (WON +2.05 - predictably tight low-scoring game which Ulster won by just 4 points)
Ulster are rock bottom of the Magners League as the only side yet to win a game, while Edinburgh perch above them with one win under their belts. But Ulster will be in pieces after a 43-0 thrashing at the hands of Ospreys last week, while Edinburgh fought out an 11-9 defeat at the Dragons, off the back of an impressive 32-12 victory over the Scarlets the week before, while Ulster went down at home to the Dragons. On that Dragons formline there isn't much between these sides - which is probably a fair reflection, but the morale should be higher in Scotland, and Ulster have made several changes which may take some time to work. Its another one where I can see Edinburgh winning outright at 15/8 but I'll take the safe handicap option with Totesport.
7.45 League One >2.5gls Double 3/1 (WON +5.05 - 10 goals in total as Hartlepool drew 3-3 and Stockport won 3-1)
Just the two matches tonight and both look like they could provide plenty of goals. Hartlepool have scored 3 or more goals in three of their four home games this season, as well as 3 against West Brom in the League Cup. They have also conceded 13 in their 8 league games. Swindon have only failed to score once and haven't kept a clean sheet all season so more than 2.5 goals in this match looks better than the evens on offer. Stockport have also scored in all bar one league game, and are shipping an average goal a game through their own net. While their opponents tonight, high-flying Oldham have treated their travelling fans to 8 goals on the road, while conceding 5 in those four games. You can also get evens on more than 2.5 goals in this game, so doubling up gives us a tasty 3/1.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
So a new month and we've got a nice profit on day one. So we'll stick with the same sports as yesterday.
2.55 Ayr Scenic Pass 13/8 (2ND +1.21 - Doric Echo finished the better of the two)
This fillie had gone up 15lbs when she was second by half a length last time out, and beat today's main opponent Doric Echo by 3/4 of a length. That day Scenic Pass carried 3lbs more than Doric Echo, is due to go up 5lbs, but today the rematch is off level weights on heavier going, so I don't see that form reversing, especially as he seemed anything but reliable and looked like further would suit him.
4.30 Goodwood Timocracy 15/8 (3rd +0.21 - Will probably need to revert to softer ground)
After stepping up beyond a mile, Timocracy has run 3 good races in September, winning by 5 lengths, and second by 1/4 of a length and a head while still moving up in the weights. He is due to go up another 2lbs after today, so I expect him to make the most of having the jockey who rode him to his previous victory, Royston Ffrench, back on board against what otherwise looks a moderate field. Sinbad the Sailor and Mon Plaisir are each way value, but Timocracy looks the the one to take the spoils.
6.40 Standard Liege draw no bet to beat Everton 8/11 (WON +0.94 - Moyes is sounding like a desparate man, I'm sorry to say for my Bluenose friends)
You have to go back 13 games and nearly 6 months for Everton's last clean sheet, and in their 8 games this season they have conceded 2 or more goals on all bar one occasion. In the first 6 game they had scored 11 in reply, but its now 192 minutes without a goal, and their lack of investment in the summer is pointing towards a difficult season for the Toffees. I'm not saying they will be fighting relegation but it could be mid-table mediocrity and hope for a cup run. Their opponents tonight meanwhile have conceded just 7 in their 10 games, including two league games against Anderlecht and just one goal over 2 legs against the same Liverpool side who swatted away Everton's flyweight challenge on Saturday - that 1-0 defeat at Anfield being Liege's only defeat of the season. David Moyes will be be doing everything to get his side up again after that defeat but there were few positives to be taken, and confidence can't be high. Liege will be confident after the 2-2 draw at Goodison, and last weekend's win over Anderlecht, and so I don't see them winning. As the game goes on Everton may start to hang on for penalties so I'd like to keep the draw onside, but Liege should win this.
8.00 Harlequins to beat Worcester 6/5 (WON 30-23 +2.14 - Quins always in control - hope we get more anomalies in pricing in next few games)
Another rugby union price I don't understand. According to the odds, Quins are 4 times more likely to finish in the top 3 of the Guinness Premiership and Worcester are 5 times more likely to finish bottom. Quins have lost narrowly to London Irish (by 1pt) and Gloucester (by 4pts) and beaten Saracens and Bristol - with a little extra they could have 4 wins from 4. Worcester have fought pluckily but lost to Northampton, Leicester, edged Wasps (who are not the side they were - see yesterday's tips), before an 18pt defeat at Bath on Saturday. And yet after all that Worcester are favourites tonight. Does home advantage really count for that much? Granted Quins two losses have been on the road, but Worcester have lost their one home game so far. I see Quins having too much too much in the back row and at fly-half for Worcester to triumph here.
2.55 Ayr Scenic Pass 13/8 (2ND +1.21 - Doric Echo finished the better of the two)
This fillie had gone up 15lbs when she was second by half a length last time out, and beat today's main opponent Doric Echo by 3/4 of a length. That day Scenic Pass carried 3lbs more than Doric Echo, is due to go up 5lbs, but today the rematch is off level weights on heavier going, so I don't see that form reversing, especially as he seemed anything but reliable and looked like further would suit him.
4.30 Goodwood Timocracy 15/8 (3rd +0.21 - Will probably need to revert to softer ground)
After stepping up beyond a mile, Timocracy has run 3 good races in September, winning by 5 lengths, and second by 1/4 of a length and a head while still moving up in the weights. He is due to go up another 2lbs after today, so I expect him to make the most of having the jockey who rode him to his previous victory, Royston Ffrench, back on board against what otherwise looks a moderate field. Sinbad the Sailor and Mon Plaisir are each way value, but Timocracy looks the the one to take the spoils.
6.40 Standard Liege draw no bet to beat Everton 8/11 (WON +0.94 - Moyes is sounding like a desparate man, I'm sorry to say for my Bluenose friends)
You have to go back 13 games and nearly 6 months for Everton's last clean sheet, and in their 8 games this season they have conceded 2 or more goals on all bar one occasion. In the first 6 game they had scored 11 in reply, but its now 192 minutes without a goal, and their lack of investment in the summer is pointing towards a difficult season for the Toffees. I'm not saying they will be fighting relegation but it could be mid-table mediocrity and hope for a cup run. Their opponents tonight meanwhile have conceded just 7 in their 10 games, including two league games against Anderlecht and just one goal over 2 legs against the same Liverpool side who swatted away Everton's flyweight challenge on Saturday - that 1-0 defeat at Anfield being Liege's only defeat of the season. David Moyes will be be doing everything to get his side up again after that defeat but there were few positives to be taken, and confidence can't be high. Liege will be confident after the 2-2 draw at Goodison, and last weekend's win over Anderlecht, and so I don't see them winning. As the game goes on Everton may start to hang on for penalties so I'd like to keep the draw onside, but Liege should win this.
8.00 Harlequins to beat Worcester 6/5 (WON 30-23 +2.14 - Quins always in control - hope we get more anomalies in pricing in next few games)
Another rugby union price I don't understand. According to the odds, Quins are 4 times more likely to finish in the top 3 of the Guinness Premiership and Worcester are 5 times more likely to finish bottom. Quins have lost narrowly to London Irish (by 1pt) and Gloucester (by 4pts) and beaten Saracens and Bristol - with a little extra they could have 4 wins from 4. Worcester have fought pluckily but lost to Northampton, Leicester, edged Wasps (who are not the side they were - see yesterday's tips), before an 18pt defeat at Bath on Saturday. And yet after all that Worcester are favourites tonight. Does home advantage really count for that much? Granted Quins two losses have been on the road, but Worcester have lost their one home game so far. I see Quins having too much too much in the back row and at fly-half for Worcester to triumph here.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
A new month, time to get some swag in the bag.
5.20 Newcastle Feisty Royale 3/1 (NON-RUNNER)
This fillies two wins came last season over 6f on Gd and GS ground, and a good second place last week over the same trip on soft ground, suggests she should be fine with the 7f today on heavy going. She is up a pound for that race, but her wins last season came in handicaps off this rating and 5lbs higher, and she is 10lbs lower than the start of this year. Casino Night is the only other horse with proven firm on softer ground, but 7f may be on the sharp side for her.
7.45 Anorthosis Famagusta to beat Panathinaikos 23/10 (WON 3-1 +2.30 - the Cypriots are now joint top with Inter)
You may remember back in August we backed Omonia Nicosia to beat AEK Athens in the UEFA Cup at a tasty price and and were only beaten by a late equaliser from the Greeks. Then I enthused how Cypriot football is developing as a force to be taken seriously these days. Well tonight another Cypriot team take on another Greek team. Anorthosis Famagusta are managed by Temuri Ketsbaia and have the mercurial Georgi Kinkladze among their ranks. They are also the only unbeaten team in the Cypriot League, alongside Nicosia. Panathinaikos meanwhile finished 3rd in the Greek League last year, 2 points behind AEK, and a further 2 points behind champions Olympiakos. And why aren't Olympiakos in the Champions League now you may ask? Because Famagusta beat them 3-0 in the home leg of their qualifying tie. So if Famagusta were Italian or Spanish they would be favourites tonight, but because they are Cypriot we are getting a decent price. Take advantage while it lasts.
7.45 Atletico to bt Marseille and Inter to bt Bremen double 13/7 (LOST +1.30 - a comfortable win for Atletico but Milan couldnt maintain their lead against Bremen)
Despite losing 1-0 at home to Seville on Sunday, Atletico have scored 18 goals in their last 7 league and European cup games, and had won the previous three home games 4-0 including against Schalke in the final qualifying round, having been 1-0 down from the first leg! Sergio Aguero has been key to this with 5 goals, 3 in Europe and is the spearhead of the side. Marseille are unbeaten in the French League this season but have drawn four of their seven games, and I dont see them having the guile or power to get past this Atletico side.
Jose Mourinho made his intent known in the first game with a trademark cleansheet in Greece, and a 2-0 victory, while Bremen were held at home by Famagusta. Jose has been brought in to win this tournament and so I dont expect any slip up at home.
7.45 Bath +7 to beat Wasps 10/11 (WON +2.21 - I hope some of you may have backed Bath outright but the handicap was never in doubt)
The news is all about Danny Cipriani's comeback tonight, and that added to Wasps home advantage have got the bookies to way overprice this match-up. Bath have beaten basement sides Bristol and Worcester either side of a 4 point loss to Gloucester, but the eye-catching performance and result was a 20-16 win at London Irish. Wasps meanwhile lost their first three games to Northampton, Worcester and London Irish, but had a good win at Leicester at the weekend which seems to have swayed the bookies. I nearly put Bath up to win this at 2/1 and I wouldnt dissuade anyone from that, but a seven-point start on the handicap seems a steal.
5.20 Newcastle Feisty Royale 3/1 (NON-RUNNER)
This fillies two wins came last season over 6f on Gd and GS ground, and a good second place last week over the same trip on soft ground, suggests she should be fine with the 7f today on heavy going. She is up a pound for that race, but her wins last season came in handicaps off this rating and 5lbs higher, and she is 10lbs lower than the start of this year. Casino Night is the only other horse with proven firm on softer ground, but 7f may be on the sharp side for her.
7.45 Anorthosis Famagusta to beat Panathinaikos 23/10 (WON 3-1 +2.30 - the Cypriots are now joint top with Inter)
You may remember back in August we backed Omonia Nicosia to beat AEK Athens in the UEFA Cup at a tasty price and and were only beaten by a late equaliser from the Greeks. Then I enthused how Cypriot football is developing as a force to be taken seriously these days. Well tonight another Cypriot team take on another Greek team. Anorthosis Famagusta are managed by Temuri Ketsbaia and have the mercurial Georgi Kinkladze among their ranks. They are also the only unbeaten team in the Cypriot League, alongside Nicosia. Panathinaikos meanwhile finished 3rd in the Greek League last year, 2 points behind AEK, and a further 2 points behind champions Olympiakos. And why aren't Olympiakos in the Champions League now you may ask? Because Famagusta beat them 3-0 in the home leg of their qualifying tie. So if Famagusta were Italian or Spanish they would be favourites tonight, but because they are Cypriot we are getting a decent price. Take advantage while it lasts.
7.45 Atletico to bt Marseille and Inter to bt Bremen double 13/7 (LOST +1.30 - a comfortable win for Atletico but Milan couldnt maintain their lead against Bremen)
Despite losing 1-0 at home to Seville on Sunday, Atletico have scored 18 goals in their last 7 league and European cup games, and had won the previous three home games 4-0 including against Schalke in the final qualifying round, having been 1-0 down from the first leg! Sergio Aguero has been key to this with 5 goals, 3 in Europe and is the spearhead of the side. Marseille are unbeaten in the French League this season but have drawn four of their seven games, and I dont see them having the guile or power to get past this Atletico side.
Jose Mourinho made his intent known in the first game with a trademark cleansheet in Greece, and a 2-0 victory, while Bremen were held at home by Famagusta. Jose has been brought in to win this tournament and so I dont expect any slip up at home.
7.45 Bath +7 to beat Wasps 10/11 (WON +2.21 - I hope some of you may have backed Bath outright but the handicap was never in doubt)
The news is all about Danny Cipriani's comeback tonight, and that added to Wasps home advantage have got the bookies to way overprice this match-up. Bath have beaten basement sides Bristol and Worcester either side of a 4 point loss to Gloucester, but the eye-catching performance and result was a 20-16 win at London Irish. Wasps meanwhile lost their first three games to Northampton, Worcester and London Irish, but had a good win at Leicester at the weekend which seems to have swayed the bookies. I nearly put Bath up to win this at 2/1 and I wouldnt dissuade anyone from that, but a seven-point start on the handicap seems a steal.
September Update
Two down months in a row. Time to address the decline - well its more than is happening on the stock market! At least I had fun at the Ryder Cup (it is very strange being in a country as developed as the US with no bookies though!), and overall we are still in profit!
September loss : £8.34
Success rate : 19% (4/21)
Overall profit : £14.55
Overall success : 36% (124/344)
September loss : £8.34
Success rate : 19% (4/21)
Overall profit : £14.55
Overall success : 36% (124/344)
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Football and Rugby Union
Yes I'm back finally! After a golfing tour of Kentucky and Kerry there's one last blast to end the month, and its largely back to the big round ball.
7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.
7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.
7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.
7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.
7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.
7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.
7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.
7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Ryder Cup Day One Preview
So its finally here. The pairings are out, the course is cut (to Zinger's prescription) and we're all set.
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
Thursday, September 18, 2008
The Greatest
Currently half time here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium and its 14-7 to Louisville over Kentucky State. And feck me its a classic snapshot of America - a massive amount of stuff, fluff and rubbish around what should be the main event. A band of about 200 - who presumably are the ones who aren't good enough to play sport, the ones who never g picked? About 4 different teams of cheerleaders and 50 year old men saying "Aint they cute!". A crowd that gets massively over-excited about a bloke throwing a ball 10 yards and his mate catching it - isn't that his job?
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
Ryder Cupdate (Practice Day Two)
We're just over 24 hours from the Opening Ceremony, but tonight sees the first official function as Louisville welcomes the teams at the Muhammed Ali Center. I've been down there myself and its an impressive combination of museum, gallery and education centre about the career, life, influences and influenced of The Greatest, Louisville's most famous son. And with what I'm hearing Kenny Perry and Paul Azinger say, Louisville's second most famous son is expected to be in the first foursome to tee off on Friday morning.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
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