Am rolling November and December into one given the low level of tips last month. And will start today with a mixed bag of tips. Read, consider and feel free to comment.
George Takei 11/1 to win and 6/4 to win without Joe Swash
I hadnt watch any of I'm a Celebrity until about 20 minutes on Wednesday night and then the last 5 minutes last night, but early on a few people were banding around George as a possible dark horse to win this. Well he's still there, and dont underestimate the Trekkie vote. Jo Swash is way too short as we've seen contests like this make a mockery of short odds before, and while Martina Navratilova will have her fans, George at 11/1 is worth a small nibble. A cover at 6/4 on him to beat the Queen of Wimbledon.
Kauto Star 5/1 e/w Cheltenham Gold Cup
So Kauto got hosed by Denman last year, and fell last time out. Would you still want to bet against him finishing in the top 3 at Cheltenham? If so, please take my bet! He travelled perfectly well and it wasn't his jumping that actually caused his fall. I don't always agree with what Paul Nicholls says, but this time I do agree that he would have won that race, and if he had he wouldn't be 5/1 now. Each way is 1/4 odds for first three, so back him now each way, before he wins the King George again and that moves shorter.
Darren Bent top Spurs scorer 10/11
Paddy Power are still offering odds on Spurs top scorer in the Premier League this season. So far Darren Bent has 7, Roman Pavlyuchenko has 3, Jenas 2, and noone else more than 1. So Bent should be short odds on? Well Paddy has him at 10/11. Even if the Russian finds his Spartak Moscow form again of a goal every other game for the rest of the season he will only get to 13, leaving Bent to need 7 in 21 games - in a 'bad' season last year he scored 6 from 11 starts and 16 sub appearances, and his Spurs career has seen him net 13 from 22 starts and 20 sub appearances. Harry likes him, and will keep starting with him. Barring injury this is the safest place to put your money now savings rates are getting slashed again.
Stoke to finish bottom 10/3
This battle, as the bookies know, is a fight between West Brom and Stoke. Yes there is seven points and five teams between the sides currently, but Stoke are so one-dimensional that managers will quickly be realising the best plan to handle that and Stoke's main attack will be blunted - many managers will watch the video of this week's League Cup game and note how Derby handled Delap's long throws. In the next two weeks, Stoke have to go to a Newcastle side who are unbeaten at home since September and then at home to Fulham who have taken 8 points from their last 4 games, and lost just one of their last 4 away games. West Brom however have Pompey tomorrow who've won just one of their last 8 eight away games then a trip to fellow relegation contenders, managerless Sunderland. So that seven point gap could easily be halved by Christmas and 3 points over half a season isn't a lot to overcome. 10/3 will look too big.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Football
Another delve into the football world after last week's near miss.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
8.00 Everton to win to nil v Wigan 7/2 (LOST 1-0 -1.08 - Poor game, Everton need a new striker asap!)
Everton are slight favourites in this game today, but I think we can enhance that value by backing them to win without conceding. Firstly they have won four of their six away games this season, the loss coming at the Emirates and the draw in the middle of Hull's initial purple patch, and have picked up 12 points from their last 5 games since that loss against Arsenal. Wigan, conversely have taken just 5 points from their last seven games, and the JJB faithful have seen their team take only 5 points all season from 6 home games, and are currently 326 minutes into a goal drought. Add that to Everton finally sorting out their defence and conceding just two goals in their last four games, including wins at Bolton and West Ham, who are both looking stronger sides than the Latics. So 7/4 Everton is decent value, but 7/2 to do so without conceding sounds even more appealing.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Football
As I mentioned in my October Update work has held me back from punting lately, but tonight there is a treble I really like the look of.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
5pm Cyprus, Germany and Argentina 29/4 treble, 5/4, 6/5, 4/6 singles (2 single wins -0.08 - Germany let us down! At 1-1 I thought we were in, but alas only Cyprus and Argentina saw us through)
By now you should all be aware of my views on Cypriot football as a developing nation. Famagusta are on the verge of making it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League having drawn with Jose's Inter, Werder Bremen and beating Panathinaikos. Five who were involved in that 3-3 draw with Inter will feature for their national side tonight, and also played when Italy stole a 2-1 win with a last minute winner here in September. The Cypriots home record has been impressive in recent seasons though. Last season they lost just once - no shame in losing 2-0 to the Czech Republic, but also registered three wins and a draw, scoring 10 goals in the process. And in 2006 they drew 1-1 with Germany and famously beat the Republic of Ireland 5-2. Belarus are no mugs but their only away wins in recent seasons have been in Andorra, Malta, Albania and Luxembourg, so with Cyprus' firepower I believe they be seen off.
Germany were 11/8 in the betting shops yesterday, but 6/5 is the best price available this morning - check the coupons in the shps though in case they haven't been changed. The reason for the change is another injury for England. At least three of England's spine are out tonight with no Rooney, Gerrard, or Ferdinand and also Lampard and Walcott. I don't see Bent, Defoe or Agbhonglahor worrying the Germans. They have won their last 4 home games against Wales, Russia, Belgium and Serbia, and it is only just over 12 months since they came to Wembley and beat England 2-1 - a side which included James, Richards, Ferdinand, Terry, Carrick, Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips, although also Alan Smith! Germany have also won the last 4 friendlies between the nations on German soil. 11/8 was nice but 6/5 is still too big.
And finally Scotland. The George Burley era is yet to get off the ground. A poor 0-0 with Northern Ireland was followed by defeat in Macedonia, spirits lifted with a 2-1 win in Iceland but a dull 0-0 at home with Norway have given the Scots a tough route to qualify for the World Cup already. It is now over 12 months since Hampden saw a victory for the Tartan Army to cheer, with Italy and Croatia spoiling the parties last season too. Argentina have had a dip in form recently though, losing to Chile last month, and precipitating the appointment of the cheating dwarf as manager. But the game being played in Europe, where all the Argentinians are now based (noone from Falklands it seems), may see an improvement as will that man's presence on the bench. Sergio Aguero won't feature as his partner, Maradona's daughter, has had pregnancy complications, but that still leaves plenty of flair for the the South Americans. Maradona's selections suggest a more attacking approach and Atletico's Maxi Rodriguez and Porto's Luis Gonzalez, should combine well with Liso Lopez and Carlos Tevez to terrorise the Scottish defence. And with their best player on current form, Darren Fletcher, first choice keeper Craig Gordon, Rangers striker Kenny Miller pulling out, and Kris Boyd refusing to play for Burley, aside from the returning Barry Ferguson who still isn't fully fit, it is a fairly inexperienced team, let alone inferior in quality.
October Update
Work haspicked up again so been a bit quiet on the punting front. Apologies!
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
October profit : £5.64
Success rate : 52% (12/23)
Overall profit : £20.19
Overall success : 37% (136/367)
Outstanding bets:
Bent top scorer 25/1 e/w
Stoke Relegated 8/15
Anelka top scorer 16/1 e/w
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Football
Been a difficult few days to find good bets, but tonight there are a trio of football bets in three different formats. Surely there can't be as many goals tonight as last night, can there???
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Pizarro 1st Goal 13/2 e/w (1/3 1-2-3-4-5) (LOST +5.64 - two more goals for Werder, but neither from our tip unfortunately)
Chelsea snapped Claudio Pizarro up after the Peruvian had scored 99 Bundesliga goals from 176 starts, but made only 4 appearances in the starting XI for the Blues last season. And with Nicholas Anelka coming in during the campaign, Pizarro has headed out on loan to his first club Werder Bremen. Bremen are currently mid-table but are top scorers in German with 22 goals in 8 games, 14 of which have come in their last four games with Pizarro notching 4 of them. Panathanaikos have lost their last five Champions League games, split by a 2 year break where they only qualified for the UEFA Cup, and look out of their depth again this year. Hit Paddy Power for some 13/2.
Anorthosis +2 Asian Evns (WON +6.64 - A good performance by the Cypriots, who made Inter scrap all the way. Lets just hope the bookies still haven't cottoned on)
With the amount of support I've shown for Cypriot football this season, I'm not planning on going anywhere near Turkey anytime soon, but they are still under-rated, so I will keep on backing them! Anorthosis currently sit top of Group B on goals scored, but of course have group favourites Inter to play tonight. Inter should win the game for all manner of reasons, but this is a Jose Mourinho side, and they rarely have runaway results in Europe, even if Anothosis allowed them to, and these Cypriots work very hard for the full 90 minutes. They got a very credible 0-0 at Werder Bremen before beating Panathanaikos last time out - the same Bremen side who drew 1-1 in the San Siro. Victor Chandler's Asian handicap allows us a win if Anorthosis get anything out the game and even if Inter only win by the odd goal, which is the most likely result, and we still get our money back if its a 2-goal deficit. We only lose if the Italians win by 3 or more goals. Of Inter's 10 games in all competitions this season, only one has been victory by 4 goals, two by 2 (interestingly all those three were away from home), and the other seven would have given us a win from this bet. So does evens sound good enough for you?
Chesterfield v Aldershot Draw 12/5 (LOST +5.64 - badly, badly wrong! Where did 5-1 come from???)
From the San Siro to Saltergate. Chesterfield have drawn 2 of their last 3 games against similar mid-table mediocrities, and have a below-par home record with one win and one draw from five games. Aldershot are unbeaten at home still with 12 points from a possible 18 but one win and four losses on the road,and they too have drawn 2 of their last three against high-flyers Brentford and Bury, but lost on the road to Macclesfield. So will someone get a boost to their form figures tonight? I suspect not and would look to the draw to provide some profit from a chilly Ches Vegas.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Cricket
Another winner last night and Ronnie has seen off Marco Fu 5-1 this afternoon. That 2/1 was already 7/4 by this morning, and could well be in to nearly evens now. Am considering a golf bet for tomorrow, but for now its back to India.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
India v Australia 2nd Test draw 13/10 (LOST +6.64 - Australia's batting showed a rarely seen frailty in both innings. This side's pillars have crumbled, leaving a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Ponting, Hussey and Lee. England a good bet for the Ashes)
Having kept the draw on our side last week, but sided with India, the lack of potent wicket takers in either side has led me to lean to backing the draw outright in this test in Mohali, and previous results at the venue don't suggest this is a 'result wicket. Since it became a test ground in 1994, four of the seven tests have ended in draws. And the Indian victories of 2001 and 2006 came due to the spinners taking 14 of 20 English second innings wickets. Kumble's shoulder injury reduces India's spinning strength, as seen in Bangalore when he was out of the attack, and I have said all I need to about Australia's spinning option, or lack thereof, in my preview of the first test. The runs per over was down below 3 in the first test and I dont see that changing, so a dull draw is the sensible call, and then see what happens in the deciding test.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Football and Snooker
Apologies for the lack of posts but the first couple of days of the international week have been slow and bare in terms of good bets, but there are a couple today.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
6pm Holland to beat Norway Evens (WON +8.64 - Holland edged a tight game 1-0)
Holland sit atop a group they would expect to dominate, having won in Macedonia and at home to Iceland on Saturday. Norway meanwhile have drawn both their games, at home to Iceland and away to Scotland on Saturday. They have failed to win at home in the European Champs Qualifying last season, losing to Turkey and drawing with Greece. Holland are up there with the best again these days, and so evens seems worth taking advantage of.
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the Royal London Watches Grand Prix 2/1 (LOST +7.64 - Went out to Judd Trump 5-4 in Quarters)
Ronnie is a strange beast - depressive, genius, nutter, call him what you will, its undeniable he is one of the greatest ever cuemasters and may be the best. Yesterday he went 2-0 down to Liang Wenbo, before rattling off 5 frames in a row to set up a rematch with Marco Fu, who he lost to in the final of this competition last year. And in the post-match interviews yesterday Ronnie said he didn't feel he was playing well and didn't expect to win matches, but was happy when he did because he wasn't expecting to. Well I wish I could play any sport that badly! So far this season he has won 14 out of 15 matches in ranking tournaments - the one loss being a final! And the run goes back longer than that given he won 5 on his way to the World Championships at the end of last season. And with noone looking like they have the sort of form or talent to match O'Sullivan, 2/1 looks generous. Maybe with a hedge if he gets to the final but lets just back the man first.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Football
European rugby tonight, but I don't like the first round of cross-border competitions as there are too many unknowns. So I'm just sticking to tonight's league two clash. The cricket is developing nicely with India doing well to dismiss the Aussies for 430 after their start, and Sehwag looking in the mood.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
7.45 Chris Dagnall 1st goal v Rochdale (NON-RUNNER +7.64 - our man came off the bench after the first goal was scored)
Chris Dagnall was first loaned to Rochdal from Tranmere in 2006 and that summer made his move permanent. In the next two seasons, from 35 starts and 16 appearances from the bench he scored 24 goals, very nearly a goal every other game. This term however he has found the net only once in 9 appearances, and Rochdale have scored only 11 goals. However, including the Johnston's Paints Trophy win over Carlisle the other night, they have scored 9 in their last 5 games, and Dagnall found the onion bag for the first time in that win over Carlisle. So the confidence should be back to some extent, and Lincoln's defence is not overly generous, but it has only kept two clean sheets in the league this season, and just one home win on their record. BlueSq and 888 only offer 1/3 odds for the first four scorers but their prices of 15/2 are too generous to miss compared to Ladbrokes 6/1.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Football and Darts
Gradually the sporting action is ramping back up towards the weekend. And Thursday night is darts night. The Premier League is not back yet, but every night this week we have the Sky Poker Grand Prix from Dublin, and all the big guns are out for the prize. And there's more non-league football to enjoy on Setanta. In amongst the highlights of the first day's play from Bangalore!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
7.00 Walsh & Taylor Double 4/3 (LOST +8.64 - Walsh never turned up but Taylor was imperious. Averaging over 100 when you have to double in is just immense)
There is no point in betting against Phil Taylor in this tournament now. He's won 18 tournaments in the last seven months, and after getting over the tricky three set first round he's already cruising in style again, averaging 96.72 - 7 points more than tonight's opponent Colin Osborne and firing more 140 and 180s despite playing a leg less. He has lost in the first round of this tournament 3 times, but on the seven previous occasions he has made it through he has won the tournament! 1-6 isn't a massive price for the Power to beat Colin Osbourne, but its safer than an Icelandic bank! Mark Walsh has reached three semi-finals this season including the Windy City Open where he beat tonight's opponent Terry Jenkins 3-2. And their first round performances here also give Walsh the edge. Jenkins averaged just 80.44 in his 2-0 win over Mick Magowan, while Walsh took 3 legs to beat Steve Beaton, but averaged 85.84. Those looking for omens, will note that Walsh beat Beaton in the previous round when they met in Chicago, before losing 3-2 in the semi's to Wayne Mardle. I would have Walsh as slight favourite but the bookies go the other way, so take advantage.
7.45 Tim Sills to score first goal 5/1 e/w (LOST +7.64 - a 1-1 draw and our man didn't net. Annoyingly the 22/1 Oxford goalscorer was the other one I mulled over then dismissed given they were away!)
After a slow start to the season taking just five points from seven games, Torquay have won five and drawn one of their last six games, scoring 7 times in their last three home games. It is probably no coincidence that this turnaround goes hand in hand with Tim Sills finding his scoring boots. He had scored 19 in 41 games for Torquay before the season started, but, after scoring on the opening day, went 6 games without netting again. He is now 4 from 13 games, with two in his last two, so current form, and his career stats suggest 5/1 the first goal is generous. On his goals to game ratio, this price for the first goal works on Torquay scoring 2.1 goals - the spread companies quotes are 1.6-1.8. Go get it!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Cricket
Another quiet sporting day and no point in chasing bets when we're sat very nicely a week into the month. But a titanic clash starts tomorrow.
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
5am India to beat Australia Draw No Bet 4/5 (DRAW +9.64 - Australia had the better of the test, but the lack of spinner on the last day proved crucial)
There are sporadic thunderstorms forecast for the next five days in Bangalore so we'll take the draw out of the equation for starters. Aside from that though should this be an equal affair? In the two warm-up games, Michael Hussey scored 126 not out, Simon Katich 73, Ricky Ponting 58 not out and the next highest score is 44. But the Australian batting is not the worry - they are a proven unit. Stuart Clarke has taken 7 wickets at an average of 17.57 and a strike rate of 34, but the other seamers - Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee and Peter Siddle are averaging over 30 and strike rates between 64-70. And then you get to their spinners - Jason Krejza's off breaks have taken just three wickets in 42 overs at 78 a piece, an economy rate of over 5.5; while Michael Clarke is yet to take a wicket with 0-84 in 17 overs. And while overall averages for spinners aren't great at Bangalore its because it tends to be a batsman's pitch in the first innings, but then turns on day 5. The average first innings score is 431, 392 in second, then down to 279 in the fourth innings. The first innings of both sides in the last 10 years have yielded 8 400+ totals from 10 innings, with two of those reaching 500 and one 600. But I think Australia will struggle to bowl India out in the second innings, so will struggle to win the match. Go back over the last 25 years and 46 of 68 4th innings wickets have been taken by spinners. If you wanted to win the match would you rather go with debutant Krejza and Clarke with 14 test wickets on your side or Kumble and Harbhajan with 907 test wickets between them?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Football
There's not much out there this week, although the darts might be a little more interesting as the week goes on, but tonight its the Johnstone Paints Trophy, giving Leeds an opportunity to relive those glory years of lifting silverware, and some Blue Square Premier games, which is where today's one bet comes from.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
7.45 Ketttering to beat Eastbourne 11/8 (WON 2-1 +9.64 - 2-0 up, Eastbourne getting one back made it a nervy finish, but the Poppies held on)
Kettering have made an excellent start to their Blue Square campaign after promotion last season, while Eastbourne have fared more as expected, lingering just above the bottom three. Kettering's away form has been impressive too, their only defeat being a 1-0 defeat at table topping Crawley. They have scored 9 in 6 games on the road conceding 6. Eastbourne meanwhile have won just 2 of their 6 home games, against fellow bottom 8 sides Altrincham and Forest Green, scoring just 5 and conceding 8. In fact that 1-0 win over Forest Green was their last win in the league, 7 games ago, conceding 13 in those 6 interim games. The wonderfully named Exodus Geoghaghan is back in defence for the Poppies, and will see them to another three points.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Football thoughts
Nothing worth betting on today, so we'll just nurse our winnings from last week and take a look at how things are shaping up now we have some meaningful form.
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
I've no interest in changing my pre-season view that Chelsea will win the league. Only Man City have score more goals, and noone has conceded less. Yes they have a striker injury crisis at present, but Anelka is still high class and its not like they don't have goals from midfield or set pieces. And with a defence like theirs, one is often enough.
Liverpool have showed more resolve so far than in recent seasons and it looks like they might make it a 3-way race now United have found their stride, but the way Ronaldo, Berbatov and Rooney have gelled they are going to be even better to watch than usual. And after they beat Fulham in their game in hand they will only be 3 points behind the top 2.
Arsenal are faltering with points dropped against sides who should be cast iron 3 points, and they could leave the door open for Villa to slide in, although they are conceding too many goals for my liking. If, and its still a big if, Arsenal don't make the top 4, will Arsene stay, will they be able to keep paying the interest on the bond repayments, will they become the new Leeds?!?
Hull and West Brom have both started well and while it can't continue, there is a lot to be said for getting your points on the board early. Hull probably only need 24 points from 31 games now and with 6 in the bag from North London they will carry that momentum and belief for a few weeks. All their hard work is very Bolton-esque, but in Geovanni they have something a bit special. I was surprised when City let him go.
And so to who will go down. Stoke at 8/15 is the safest place to put your saving outside of Irish banks. Where else will you get a 50% return in 7 months or probably less as bookies pay out early. Spurs will pick up points - probably starting by beating Stoke in two weeks time, Newcastle will pick up points as they do at least score goals, as do Everton (although 20/1 about them getting relegated seems very generous). Which leaves Fulham and Bolton to fill the 18th and 19th positions, but with long sweaty seasons for the Toon Army and the Toffees.
With Didier Drogba out, Nick Anelka will get a decent run in the Chelsea side and he is still a good finisher. 16/1 seems generous about him to be top scorer, especially with 1/4 odds for the first four with Sportingbet, so that's today's tip.
Anelka Top Scorer 16/1 e/w
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Football and Rugby League
Still can't quite get a winner on the racetrack, but nice football and rugby wins again yesterday. So we'll drop the horses today and switch rugby codes to the Grand Final at Old Trafford. Always a cracking day out, and should be a tense tight affair.
3.00 West Brom to beat Fulham 11/8 (WON 1-0 +6.43 - West Brom in the top half and Fulham facing another long relegation battle)
After losing their first two games, West Brom will be happy to have 7 points from their last four games, getting a good point at Bolton, beating West Ham at home and then last week winning at The Riverside. Fulham however, after beating Arsenal and then Bolton, have lost three in a row if you include the League Cup loss at Burnley, and again including that they have lost all three away games, scoring just once. And on their comparative form you have to fancy the Baggies to make it to 10 points today.
3.00 Wigan bt Middlesbrough Evens (LOST 1-0 +5.43 - Boro finally win away in a game not for the purists!)
This match is very similar to the one above. Wigan lost their first two games - admittedly tough assignmenats at West Ham and home to Chelsea, but are unbeaten since then, hammering five past Hull, four past Ipswich in the League Cup and then last week beating the moneybags from Man City. Morale will be high at the JJB and a win today will confirm their top half spot. Boro have lost their last four games in all competitions, with their only wins this seaosn coming against Spurs and Stoke, and havent socred in the Premier League for 246 minutes. Wigan will relish this chance.
5.30 Rooney to score 1st goal 5/1 e/w (Scored 2nd goal +5.76 - 3 in 3 for Rooney)
The one criticism labelled against Wayne Rooney is that he doesnt score enough goals, but with Berbatov alongside him he shouldn't have to come so short to get involved in the play and his two goals in his last two may be the start of the final piece of the jigsaw coming together at United for this world class talent. 5/1 is available with the high street boys and you can get 1/3 odds for the first 5 scorers.
6.00 Leeds beat St Helens 5/2 (WON 24-16 +8.26 - a slow start but the resolute defence held up against an off-form Saints side, and some magic near the tryline saw Leeds defend their title)
The bookies clearly fancy Daniel Anderson's Saints to send him off in style, but it isn't always the season's best side who win the Old Trafford showpiece. In the last three years, St Helens finished top of the league but have only won the trophy once - in 2005 they didnt even make the final, and of course last year Leeds beat them. And over the season there is little between these sides. There was one point separating them at the top of the table, and the difference in points difference was less than 2 points per game. Yet the handicaps are 8 points, and Leeds are 5/2 against. In the regular season Leeds won 14-10 at Knowsley Road and Saints won 26-12 at Headingley. Yes Saints won the eliminator 38-10, but the safety not of the playoff would have seen Leeds ease off slightly when the game was gone. And yes Saints have had extra time to prepare, but as we have seen that theory doesnt hold in recent years. So yes Saints may send Daniel Anderson off in style but 5/2 seems too good to miss about Leeds.
3.00 West Brom to beat Fulham 11/8 (WON 1-0 +6.43 - West Brom in the top half and Fulham facing another long relegation battle)
After losing their first two games, West Brom will be happy to have 7 points from their last four games, getting a good point at Bolton, beating West Ham at home and then last week winning at The Riverside. Fulham however, after beating Arsenal and then Bolton, have lost three in a row if you include the League Cup loss at Burnley, and again including that they have lost all three away games, scoring just once. And on their comparative form you have to fancy the Baggies to make it to 10 points today.
3.00 Wigan bt Middlesbrough Evens (LOST 1-0 +5.43 - Boro finally win away in a game not for the purists!)
This match is very similar to the one above. Wigan lost their first two games - admittedly tough assignmenats at West Ham and home to Chelsea, but are unbeaten since then, hammering five past Hull, four past Ipswich in the League Cup and then last week beating the moneybags from Man City. Morale will be high at the JJB and a win today will confirm their top half spot. Boro have lost their last four games in all competitions, with their only wins this seaosn coming against Spurs and Stoke, and havent socred in the Premier League for 246 minutes. Wigan will relish this chance.
5.30 Rooney to score 1st goal 5/1 e/w (Scored 2nd goal +5.76 - 3 in 3 for Rooney)
The one criticism labelled against Wayne Rooney is that he doesnt score enough goals, but with Berbatov alongside him he shouldn't have to come so short to get involved in the play and his two goals in his last two may be the start of the final piece of the jigsaw coming together at United for this world class talent. 5/1 is available with the high street boys and you can get 1/3 odds for the first 5 scorers.
6.00 Leeds beat St Helens 5/2 (WON 24-16 +8.26 - a slow start but the resolute defence held up against an off-form Saints side, and some magic near the tryline saw Leeds defend their title)
The bookies clearly fancy Daniel Anderson's Saints to send him off in style, but it isn't always the season's best side who win the Old Trafford showpiece. In the last three years, St Helens finished top of the league but have only won the trophy once - in 2005 they didnt even make the final, and of course last year Leeds beat them. And over the season there is little between these sides. There was one point separating them at the top of the table, and the difference in points difference was less than 2 points per game. Yet the handicaps are 8 points, and Leeds are 5/2 against. In the regular season Leeds won 14-10 at Knowsley Road and Saints won 26-12 at Headingley. Yes Saints won the eliminator 38-10, but the safety not of the playoff would have seen Leeds ease off slightly when the game was gone. And yes Saints have had extra time to prepare, but as we have seen that theory doesnt hold in recent years. So yes Saints may send Daniel Anderson off in style but 5/2 seems too good to miss about Leeds.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
We gave back a touch of Wednesday's gains yesterday as I can't quite get a winner at the racetrack, but the rugby is going very well. Same combination of bets today though, but less horses!
4.45 Lingfield Trinkila 11/1 e/w (4th +1.14 - Unfortunately due to non-runners the place money fell from first four to first three, so we missed out by nearly 2 lengths)
This is a pretty average horse, but this is a very average race! She won her maiden (her only win so far) on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and a handful of those who trailed in behind her that day have done decently on the surface and held their ratings in the 70s. Trinkila was rated 75 after that race, but has now dropped to 59 after some poor runs earlier this year. She was however 5l 3rd over 10f last month, then 5th - just a length from winning, despite being crossed and having to renew efforts with a furlong to go. Without that interference she may well have won the race and would be more than 1lb up in the weights. Nothing in the race has any better all-weather form, so if she produces that last performance 11/1 could be a nice e/w return.
7.30 Edinburgh+6 to beat Ulster 10/11 (WON +2.05 - predictably tight low-scoring game which Ulster won by just 4 points)
Ulster are rock bottom of the Magners League as the only side yet to win a game, while Edinburgh perch above them with one win under their belts. But Ulster will be in pieces after a 43-0 thrashing at the hands of Ospreys last week, while Edinburgh fought out an 11-9 defeat at the Dragons, off the back of an impressive 32-12 victory over the Scarlets the week before, while Ulster went down at home to the Dragons. On that Dragons formline there isn't much between these sides - which is probably a fair reflection, but the morale should be higher in Scotland, and Ulster have made several changes which may take some time to work. Its another one where I can see Edinburgh winning outright at 15/8 but I'll take the safe handicap option with Totesport.
7.45 League One >2.5gls Double 3/1 (WON +5.05 - 10 goals in total as Hartlepool drew 3-3 and Stockport won 3-1)
Just the two matches tonight and both look like they could provide plenty of goals. Hartlepool have scored 3 or more goals in three of their four home games this season, as well as 3 against West Brom in the League Cup. They have also conceded 13 in their 8 league games. Swindon have only failed to score once and haven't kept a clean sheet all season so more than 2.5 goals in this match looks better than the evens on offer. Stockport have also scored in all bar one league game, and are shipping an average goal a game through their own net. While their opponents tonight, high-flying Oldham have treated their travelling fans to 8 goals on the road, while conceding 5 in those four games. You can also get evens on more than 2.5 goals in this game, so doubling up gives us a tasty 3/1.
4.45 Lingfield Trinkila 11/1 e/w (4th +1.14 - Unfortunately due to non-runners the place money fell from first four to first three, so we missed out by nearly 2 lengths)
This is a pretty average horse, but this is a very average race! She won her maiden (her only win so far) on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and a handful of those who trailed in behind her that day have done decently on the surface and held their ratings in the 70s. Trinkila was rated 75 after that race, but has now dropped to 59 after some poor runs earlier this year. She was however 5l 3rd over 10f last month, then 5th - just a length from winning, despite being crossed and having to renew efforts with a furlong to go. Without that interference she may well have won the race and would be more than 1lb up in the weights. Nothing in the race has any better all-weather form, so if she produces that last performance 11/1 could be a nice e/w return.
7.30 Edinburgh+6 to beat Ulster 10/11 (WON +2.05 - predictably tight low-scoring game which Ulster won by just 4 points)
Ulster are rock bottom of the Magners League as the only side yet to win a game, while Edinburgh perch above them with one win under their belts. But Ulster will be in pieces after a 43-0 thrashing at the hands of Ospreys last week, while Edinburgh fought out an 11-9 defeat at the Dragons, off the back of an impressive 32-12 victory over the Scarlets the week before, while Ulster went down at home to the Dragons. On that Dragons formline there isn't much between these sides - which is probably a fair reflection, but the morale should be higher in Scotland, and Ulster have made several changes which may take some time to work. Its another one where I can see Edinburgh winning outright at 15/8 but I'll take the safe handicap option with Totesport.
7.45 League One >2.5gls Double 3/1 (WON +5.05 - 10 goals in total as Hartlepool drew 3-3 and Stockport won 3-1)
Just the two matches tonight and both look like they could provide plenty of goals. Hartlepool have scored 3 or more goals in three of their four home games this season, as well as 3 against West Brom in the League Cup. They have also conceded 13 in their 8 league games. Swindon have only failed to score once and haven't kept a clean sheet all season so more than 2.5 goals in this match looks better than the evens on offer. Stockport have also scored in all bar one league game, and are shipping an average goal a game through their own net. While their opponents tonight, high-flying Oldham have treated their travelling fans to 8 goals on the road, while conceding 5 in those four games. You can also get evens on more than 2.5 goals in this game, so doubling up gives us a tasty 3/1.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
So a new month and we've got a nice profit on day one. So we'll stick with the same sports as yesterday.
2.55 Ayr Scenic Pass 13/8 (2ND +1.21 - Doric Echo finished the better of the two)
This fillie had gone up 15lbs when she was second by half a length last time out, and beat today's main opponent Doric Echo by 3/4 of a length. That day Scenic Pass carried 3lbs more than Doric Echo, is due to go up 5lbs, but today the rematch is off level weights on heavier going, so I don't see that form reversing, especially as he seemed anything but reliable and looked like further would suit him.
4.30 Goodwood Timocracy 15/8 (3rd +0.21 - Will probably need to revert to softer ground)
After stepping up beyond a mile, Timocracy has run 3 good races in September, winning by 5 lengths, and second by 1/4 of a length and a head while still moving up in the weights. He is due to go up another 2lbs after today, so I expect him to make the most of having the jockey who rode him to his previous victory, Royston Ffrench, back on board against what otherwise looks a moderate field. Sinbad the Sailor and Mon Plaisir are each way value, but Timocracy looks the the one to take the spoils.
6.40 Standard Liege draw no bet to beat Everton 8/11 (WON +0.94 - Moyes is sounding like a desparate man, I'm sorry to say for my Bluenose friends)
You have to go back 13 games and nearly 6 months for Everton's last clean sheet, and in their 8 games this season they have conceded 2 or more goals on all bar one occasion. In the first 6 game they had scored 11 in reply, but its now 192 minutes without a goal, and their lack of investment in the summer is pointing towards a difficult season for the Toffees. I'm not saying they will be fighting relegation but it could be mid-table mediocrity and hope for a cup run. Their opponents tonight meanwhile have conceded just 7 in their 10 games, including two league games against Anderlecht and just one goal over 2 legs against the same Liverpool side who swatted away Everton's flyweight challenge on Saturday - that 1-0 defeat at Anfield being Liege's only defeat of the season. David Moyes will be be doing everything to get his side up again after that defeat but there were few positives to be taken, and confidence can't be high. Liege will be confident after the 2-2 draw at Goodison, and last weekend's win over Anderlecht, and so I don't see them winning. As the game goes on Everton may start to hang on for penalties so I'd like to keep the draw onside, but Liege should win this.
8.00 Harlequins to beat Worcester 6/5 (WON 30-23 +2.14 - Quins always in control - hope we get more anomalies in pricing in next few games)
Another rugby union price I don't understand. According to the odds, Quins are 4 times more likely to finish in the top 3 of the Guinness Premiership and Worcester are 5 times more likely to finish bottom. Quins have lost narrowly to London Irish (by 1pt) and Gloucester (by 4pts) and beaten Saracens and Bristol - with a little extra they could have 4 wins from 4. Worcester have fought pluckily but lost to Northampton, Leicester, edged Wasps (who are not the side they were - see yesterday's tips), before an 18pt defeat at Bath on Saturday. And yet after all that Worcester are favourites tonight. Does home advantage really count for that much? Granted Quins two losses have been on the road, but Worcester have lost their one home game so far. I see Quins having too much too much in the back row and at fly-half for Worcester to triumph here.
2.55 Ayr Scenic Pass 13/8 (2ND +1.21 - Doric Echo finished the better of the two)
This fillie had gone up 15lbs when she was second by half a length last time out, and beat today's main opponent Doric Echo by 3/4 of a length. That day Scenic Pass carried 3lbs more than Doric Echo, is due to go up 5lbs, but today the rematch is off level weights on heavier going, so I don't see that form reversing, especially as he seemed anything but reliable and looked like further would suit him.
4.30 Goodwood Timocracy 15/8 (3rd +0.21 - Will probably need to revert to softer ground)
After stepping up beyond a mile, Timocracy has run 3 good races in September, winning by 5 lengths, and second by 1/4 of a length and a head while still moving up in the weights. He is due to go up another 2lbs after today, so I expect him to make the most of having the jockey who rode him to his previous victory, Royston Ffrench, back on board against what otherwise looks a moderate field. Sinbad the Sailor and Mon Plaisir are each way value, but Timocracy looks the the one to take the spoils.
6.40 Standard Liege draw no bet to beat Everton 8/11 (WON +0.94 - Moyes is sounding like a desparate man, I'm sorry to say for my Bluenose friends)
You have to go back 13 games and nearly 6 months for Everton's last clean sheet, and in their 8 games this season they have conceded 2 or more goals on all bar one occasion. In the first 6 game they had scored 11 in reply, but its now 192 minutes without a goal, and their lack of investment in the summer is pointing towards a difficult season for the Toffees. I'm not saying they will be fighting relegation but it could be mid-table mediocrity and hope for a cup run. Their opponents tonight meanwhile have conceded just 7 in their 10 games, including two league games against Anderlecht and just one goal over 2 legs against the same Liverpool side who swatted away Everton's flyweight challenge on Saturday - that 1-0 defeat at Anfield being Liege's only defeat of the season. David Moyes will be be doing everything to get his side up again after that defeat but there were few positives to be taken, and confidence can't be high. Liege will be confident after the 2-2 draw at Goodison, and last weekend's win over Anderlecht, and so I don't see them winning. As the game goes on Everton may start to hang on for penalties so I'd like to keep the draw onside, but Liege should win this.
8.00 Harlequins to beat Worcester 6/5 (WON 30-23 +2.14 - Quins always in control - hope we get more anomalies in pricing in next few games)
Another rugby union price I don't understand. According to the odds, Quins are 4 times more likely to finish in the top 3 of the Guinness Premiership and Worcester are 5 times more likely to finish bottom. Quins have lost narrowly to London Irish (by 1pt) and Gloucester (by 4pts) and beaten Saracens and Bristol - with a little extra they could have 4 wins from 4. Worcester have fought pluckily but lost to Northampton, Leicester, edged Wasps (who are not the side they were - see yesterday's tips), before an 18pt defeat at Bath on Saturday. And yet after all that Worcester are favourites tonight. Does home advantage really count for that much? Granted Quins two losses have been on the road, but Worcester have lost their one home game so far. I see Quins having too much too much in the back row and at fly-half for Worcester to triumph here.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Racing, Football and Rugby
A new month, time to get some swag in the bag.
5.20 Newcastle Feisty Royale 3/1 (NON-RUNNER)
This fillies two wins came last season over 6f on Gd and GS ground, and a good second place last week over the same trip on soft ground, suggests she should be fine with the 7f today on heavy going. She is up a pound for that race, but her wins last season came in handicaps off this rating and 5lbs higher, and she is 10lbs lower than the start of this year. Casino Night is the only other horse with proven firm on softer ground, but 7f may be on the sharp side for her.
7.45 Anorthosis Famagusta to beat Panathinaikos 23/10 (WON 3-1 +2.30 - the Cypriots are now joint top with Inter)
You may remember back in August we backed Omonia Nicosia to beat AEK Athens in the UEFA Cup at a tasty price and and were only beaten by a late equaliser from the Greeks. Then I enthused how Cypriot football is developing as a force to be taken seriously these days. Well tonight another Cypriot team take on another Greek team. Anorthosis Famagusta are managed by Temuri Ketsbaia and have the mercurial Georgi Kinkladze among their ranks. They are also the only unbeaten team in the Cypriot League, alongside Nicosia. Panathinaikos meanwhile finished 3rd in the Greek League last year, 2 points behind AEK, and a further 2 points behind champions Olympiakos. And why aren't Olympiakos in the Champions League now you may ask? Because Famagusta beat them 3-0 in the home leg of their qualifying tie. So if Famagusta were Italian or Spanish they would be favourites tonight, but because they are Cypriot we are getting a decent price. Take advantage while it lasts.
7.45 Atletico to bt Marseille and Inter to bt Bremen double 13/7 (LOST +1.30 - a comfortable win for Atletico but Milan couldnt maintain their lead against Bremen)
Despite losing 1-0 at home to Seville on Sunday, Atletico have scored 18 goals in their last 7 league and European cup games, and had won the previous three home games 4-0 including against Schalke in the final qualifying round, having been 1-0 down from the first leg! Sergio Aguero has been key to this with 5 goals, 3 in Europe and is the spearhead of the side. Marseille are unbeaten in the French League this season but have drawn four of their seven games, and I dont see them having the guile or power to get past this Atletico side.
Jose Mourinho made his intent known in the first game with a trademark cleansheet in Greece, and a 2-0 victory, while Bremen were held at home by Famagusta. Jose has been brought in to win this tournament and so I dont expect any slip up at home.
7.45 Bath +7 to beat Wasps 10/11 (WON +2.21 - I hope some of you may have backed Bath outright but the handicap was never in doubt)
The news is all about Danny Cipriani's comeback tonight, and that added to Wasps home advantage have got the bookies to way overprice this match-up. Bath have beaten basement sides Bristol and Worcester either side of a 4 point loss to Gloucester, but the eye-catching performance and result was a 20-16 win at London Irish. Wasps meanwhile lost their first three games to Northampton, Worcester and London Irish, but had a good win at Leicester at the weekend which seems to have swayed the bookies. I nearly put Bath up to win this at 2/1 and I wouldnt dissuade anyone from that, but a seven-point start on the handicap seems a steal.
5.20 Newcastle Feisty Royale 3/1 (NON-RUNNER)
This fillies two wins came last season over 6f on Gd and GS ground, and a good second place last week over the same trip on soft ground, suggests she should be fine with the 7f today on heavy going. She is up a pound for that race, but her wins last season came in handicaps off this rating and 5lbs higher, and she is 10lbs lower than the start of this year. Casino Night is the only other horse with proven firm on softer ground, but 7f may be on the sharp side for her.
7.45 Anorthosis Famagusta to beat Panathinaikos 23/10 (WON 3-1 +2.30 - the Cypriots are now joint top with Inter)
You may remember back in August we backed Omonia Nicosia to beat AEK Athens in the UEFA Cup at a tasty price and and were only beaten by a late equaliser from the Greeks. Then I enthused how Cypriot football is developing as a force to be taken seriously these days. Well tonight another Cypriot team take on another Greek team. Anorthosis Famagusta are managed by Temuri Ketsbaia and have the mercurial Georgi Kinkladze among their ranks. They are also the only unbeaten team in the Cypriot League, alongside Nicosia. Panathinaikos meanwhile finished 3rd in the Greek League last year, 2 points behind AEK, and a further 2 points behind champions Olympiakos. And why aren't Olympiakos in the Champions League now you may ask? Because Famagusta beat them 3-0 in the home leg of their qualifying tie. So if Famagusta were Italian or Spanish they would be favourites tonight, but because they are Cypriot we are getting a decent price. Take advantage while it lasts.
7.45 Atletico to bt Marseille and Inter to bt Bremen double 13/7 (LOST +1.30 - a comfortable win for Atletico but Milan couldnt maintain their lead against Bremen)
Despite losing 1-0 at home to Seville on Sunday, Atletico have scored 18 goals in their last 7 league and European cup games, and had won the previous three home games 4-0 including against Schalke in the final qualifying round, having been 1-0 down from the first leg! Sergio Aguero has been key to this with 5 goals, 3 in Europe and is the spearhead of the side. Marseille are unbeaten in the French League this season but have drawn four of their seven games, and I dont see them having the guile or power to get past this Atletico side.
Jose Mourinho made his intent known in the first game with a trademark cleansheet in Greece, and a 2-0 victory, while Bremen were held at home by Famagusta. Jose has been brought in to win this tournament and so I dont expect any slip up at home.
7.45 Bath +7 to beat Wasps 10/11 (WON +2.21 - I hope some of you may have backed Bath outright but the handicap was never in doubt)
The news is all about Danny Cipriani's comeback tonight, and that added to Wasps home advantage have got the bookies to way overprice this match-up. Bath have beaten basement sides Bristol and Worcester either side of a 4 point loss to Gloucester, but the eye-catching performance and result was a 20-16 win at London Irish. Wasps meanwhile lost their first three games to Northampton, Worcester and London Irish, but had a good win at Leicester at the weekend which seems to have swayed the bookies. I nearly put Bath up to win this at 2/1 and I wouldnt dissuade anyone from that, but a seven-point start on the handicap seems a steal.
September Update
Two down months in a row. Time to address the decline - well its more than is happening on the stock market! At least I had fun at the Ryder Cup (it is very strange being in a country as developed as the US with no bookies though!), and overall we are still in profit!
September loss : £8.34
Success rate : 19% (4/21)
Overall profit : £14.55
Overall success : 36% (124/344)
September loss : £8.34
Success rate : 19% (4/21)
Overall profit : £14.55
Overall success : 36% (124/344)
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Football and Rugby Union
Yes I'm back finally! After a golfing tour of Kentucky and Kerry there's one last blast to end the month, and its largely back to the big round ball.
7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.
7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.
7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.
7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.
7.45 Kevin Doyle to score first goal for Reading e/w 7/1 (LOST -7.25 - Well Reading kept scoring goals, 3 in total, but our man wasnt amongst the scorers unfortunately)
Reading have made a good start to their challenge to get back up to the Premiership, scoring 12 goals in their last three games and Kevin Doyle has spearheaded it with 8 goals in 8 league games, including two on Saturday. Their opponents tonight are Wolves who sit atop the table, but they are conceding goals at a rate of just under one a game. It won't take Doyle too many chances to take one on current form, but Wolves form gives us a decent price to take advantage of. Good old Bet365 are best priced 7/1 so take him e/w with 1/3 odds for any goal scored.
7.45 Porto +0.75 Asian Handicap v Arsenal 14/11 (LOST -8.25 - Porto very nearly scored on the break early on but after that it was one way traffic)
So Arsenal aren't unbeatable at the Emirates and Porto's coaching staff will have pored over every aspect of the video of Saturday evening's game, and Porto are a better side than Hull! Wenger seemed very unsettled after that game and maybe he isn't happy with aspects of his side at the moment, so Porto will aim to exploit all they can. They are no mugs, and with 3 points at home from Fenerbahce in the bag, a point at Arsenal will set them up nicely. The +0.75 Asian handicap even gives us half our stake back if Arsenal win by only one goal, so 14/11 seems a nice price to me.
7.45 Bangoura to score first for Kiev e/w 9/1 (LOST -9.25 - Kiev again showed their resilience but a 0-0 draw didnt help us)
Turkish sides always base their European campaigns on home records and hence why, despite a 3-1 loss to Porto in the first group match they are odd on tonight. However, Kiev are no pushovers and sides from the former Soviet Union are starting to become better travellers - they have socred 10 and conceded only 3 to be unbeaten in 4 away games in the Ukrainian league. They showed against Arsenal they are well organised and in Ismael Bangoura up front they have a guy who can score goals - in fact they have scored 25 and conceded only 3 in their last 6 league games and 3 Champions League ties. I was tempted to back them to win, but will stick with Bangoura making it 4 in 6 in European football this season.
7.45 Newcastle +17 to beat Gloucester 10/11 (WON -8.34 - A 16 point victory for Gloucester means we won by the slightest of margins!)
Both of these teams have won two, lost two so far this season, with Newcastle's losses having come in a close game against Sale and a 30 point hammering by Saracens, while Gloucester scraped past Bath and Harlequins and suffered double digit defeats at the hands of Sale and Leicester. Their winning margin was 4 points in both those victories, and with rain and 20-25mph winds due in the southwest tonight I don't see them running away with this one either. Newcastle could make it uncomfortable for the home side, but I cant see them winning it although 17 points seems too big a margin.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Ryder Cup Day One Preview
So its finally here. The pairings are out, the course is cut (to Zinger's prescription) and we're all set.
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
A few observations from today's practice rounds. We saw Nick play his foursome pairings out there today - and they all played 18 holes again. The US played the same fourballs again and Zinger's foursomes sort of played together. I say sort of because Boo Weekley played on his own, leaving Furyk, Perry and Holmes to play in a threeball, which Furyk left after only 5 holes. Strange preparation for Perry and Furyk who haven't played the closing hoes together in foursomes format.
The Americans only played 9 today and I think that will make a difference on the competitive days. The Europeans have been out there playing 18 holes a day and conditioning themselves. The Americans have played 18, 9 and 9 largely, although Kim has only played 9 each day, and under the heat of this Kentucky sun, that could tell towards the end of 18 or 36 holes. I discussed this with one of Faldo's aides and Padraig Harrington's former caddie this morning and he said that he expects only Westwood and Garcia to play all five rounds. He also said, although he expects Padraig to lift his game for the main event, Padraig is looking jaded after his exploits this summer. And on the whole, the Europeans look like athletes - fitter and leaner and able to perform to maximum potential for longer, while the US are carrying a few spare tyres and that will zap enery in this heat.
But onto the foursomes and I'm going for a bold prediction - I don't see a single US win tomorrow morning. I guess it isn't that bold as three of them are favourites and I'm going for a draw in the one where they have the US slight favourites.
And that is the first match. As discussed Anthony Kim has only played 9 holes a day - and has only played the front 9 once, which could be another early factor. Lefty is 2-2-2 in foursomes, while Padraig has lost one more match. Karlsson didn't play foursomes last time out, but halved both fourballs he played in, and so I can see another stalemate on the cards, leaving Karlsson and Kim both still looking for their first Ryder Cup win. Tie 11/2 (WON -3.25 - Europe were never down in this match, but Mickelson and Kim came together well to ensure the spoils were shared)
Paul Casey has only lost 1 of his 6 Ryder Cup matches, which was in the singles on his debut, and Henrik Stenson halved his one foursomes appearance at the K Club. Justin Leonard is yet to win a foursomes match after three attempts, losing the majority, and Hunter will ably support him, but I don't see them having the firepower to match Casey on the longer holes. Europe 10/11 (LOST -4.25 - Casey was poor, summed up by his tee shot into the creek on 15 to go dormie 3 down)
Now of the Americans I do like Stewart Cink's uncomplicated approach, but he has a horrible foursomes record of just 1.5 points from 5 matches, and Chad Campbell has 2 halves from his 2 games. So I don't see them getting a full point at all. And they are up against a pairing that has been obvious since Tuesday. They are good mates, they've both soaked up the atmosphere, charmed the crowds, and Poulter will be so keen to get that win on the board that will silence anyone who still thinks Darren Clarke should be here. Justin Rose is the reliable partner anyone would love to play foursomes with and I can see these guys registering the first blue points and enjoying the ride back for lunch from the furthest point of the course - the 15th green. Europe 10/11 (LOST -5.25 - the Europeans should have wrapped this up at 3up after 7, but poor chips on 11 and 13 meant it went down to the wire where Rose's poor approach ultimately cost Europe the match)
While many pundits are saying the top game is the one that will set the tone, this is the one that will have the biggest gallery. And this just had Europe victory writte all over it. Azinger will be hoping the hometown boy can come goodand the crowd will fire up the biggest underdogs of the morning. But the crowd wanted to see Kenny and JB, and while they may still see that in the afternoon, this match up hasn't looked obvious as Jim has got on and done his own thing despite playing with Perry all week - right down to only playing 5 holes this morning. Sergio is the guy the US crowds love and he is 8 wins from 8 in foursomes which is just an awesome record. Westwood's isn't half bad either with 7 points from 10 in the format. While Furyk has won 1 from 5 attempts and Kenny failed to register anything in any format on his previous Ryder Cup appearance. These guys won't be far behind Poulter and Rose in for lunch and ready to go out again. Europe 8/11. (LOST -6.25 - Westwood and Garcia didnt play well but still came away with a half. A spark from either of them and we could have been in. But Perry putted excellently and Furyk played with a passion not seen from him before in the Ryder Cup)
Unfortunately the ban on mobiles and blackberries on course is likely to make it difficult for me to post on the afternoon session, but depending on pairings obviously, I will be looking to back Garcia, Westwood and Jiminez, while potentially opposing Harrington and Stenson, especially if they come up against Stewart Cink who is unbeaten in 5 fourball matches, although Jim Furyk's half point from 6 fourball matches means he's a big lay for me.
I'll be on course from 7.30 and I'm sure back in the UK there could be a few late lunches, so enjoy the feast that follows. If you don't pick up your emails at weekends - my posts on the final two days will be available at citypunter.blogspot.com
Thursday, September 18, 2008
The Greatest
Currently half time here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium and its 14-7 to Louisville over Kentucky State. And feck me its a classic snapshot of America - a massive amount of stuff, fluff and rubbish around what should be the main event. A band of about 200 - who presumably are the ones who aren't good enough to play sport, the ones who never g picked? About 4 different teams of cheerleaders and 50 year old men saying "Aint they cute!". A crowd that gets massively over-excited about a bloke throwing a ball 10 yards and his mate catching it - isn't that his job?
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
But the people are all friendly and want to talk golf and London. And the weather's good enough to sit in short sleeves. Very impressed by the Cardinal mascot parachuting in unaided!
But all that pales into insignificance. After about 5 game minutes (20 minutes of real time), we had been introduced to some school counsellors and the US Ryder Cup caddies.
Then the moment of the week so far. The Greatest himself was driven in a golf cart across the endzone. The hairs on my neck stood on end. He's clearly not a well man but he still has that sparkle in his eye we've all seen on those TV clips, and that I saw at his museum today.
I've seen the Louisville Lip in Louisville. Whatever happens at Valhalla this week - that moment will take some beating.
Ryder Cupdate (Practice Day Two)
We're just over 24 hours from the Opening Ceremony, but tonight sees the first official function as Louisville welcomes the teams at the Muhammed Ali Center. I've been down there myself and its an impressive combination of museum, gallery and education centre about the career, life, influences and influenced of The Greatest, Louisville's most famous son. And with what I'm hearing Kenny Perry and Paul Azinger say, Louisville's second most famous son is expected to be in the first foursome to tee off on Friday morning.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a clearer picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwood has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs. We may get further pointers on this tomorrow when the Europeans will play in foursomes format for the front nine.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enough to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way.
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Ryder Cupdate (Practice Day 2)
e're just over 24 hours from the Opening Ceremony, but tonight sees the first official function as Louisville welcomes the teams at the Muhammed Ali Center. I've been down there myself and its an impressive combination of museum, gallery and education centre about the career, life, influences and influenced of The Greatest, Louisville's most famous son. And with what I'm hearing Kenny Perry and Paul Azinger say, Louisville's second most famous son is expected to be in the first foursome to tee off on Friday morning.
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a cleare picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwoos has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enought to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way. (LOST -7.75 - Casey didn't play well and only played three times, registering just one point, although this left him joint 6th)
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US. (LOST -8.75 - Azinger threw us all a dummy then sent out his hotshots Kim and Mickelson and it was Lefty who hit first)
The US played in the same fourballs as yesterday this morning, suggesting JB Holmes and Perry may well get their wish, but it did little to change my mind on a European victory. The Americans practised with more focus today - almost as if someone had seen what the Europeans did yesterday, however they all stayed in the clubhouse after 9 holes and lunch, with the exception of Justin Leonard who went out alone to complete his round. Quite bizarre he couldn't find a single partner from his 11 teammates willing to play a few more practice holes. The no show by the US left a lot of spectators confused and frustrated that they hadn't seen their heroes - another few grains of sand shifted in the Europeans favour.
The Europeans meanwhile played in fourballs today, and they added some competition to it today, giving a cleare picture on Faldo's thoughts. Westwood and Casey played Wilson and Hansen, Spain took on Ireland, and England took on Scandinavia in the last. So with the course 'set up for bombers' as Azinger was quoted as saying, I'm expecting to see the Europeans three biggest hitters tee it up in Thursday's morning foursomes. Lee Westwoos has been out first both days, and so I'll be looking for him and Casey to take on the Kentucky boys first up, followed by an engine room of Garcia and Jiminez and the Irish connection of Harrington and McDowell. The last pair is a tough call, but I'm going for the slight surprise of Karlsson and Stenson, keeping Rose and Poulter fresh for the fourballs.
And 'squad rotation' could be a key factor this week. Its hot out there on the course and is forecast not to ease up. That maybe why the US guys didn't come out, but I prefer the European approach of getting out there and getting used to it. Azinger has already said he's going to play all 12 players on day one, which is more strength to yesterday's European win prediction, but one that may be necessary. It could be the case that few players play in all five rounds, and those who do may run out of gas on Sunday after 72 holes in two days, unless some big victories can be recorded.
So out of today, I have two more tips. Paul Casey has only lost 1 match of the 6 he has played in his previous 2 Ryder Cups - and that was his singles match as a rookie. He evened that up with a win and a hole-in-one at the K Club. So he has taken 4 points from a possible 6, and this time, with his experience, I can see him playing three of the four paired matched before the singles - his long driving being a useful tool in the foursomes, starting with a fiercely strong teaming up with Lee Westwood. I can see him getting 2 or 2.5 points from those three and at least a half in the singles, so 3-3.5 points in total, which should be good enought to get him into the top three Europeans and at 10/1 with 1/4 odds for the first three, he can be backed each way. (LOST -7.75 - Casey didn't play well and only played three times, registering just one point, although this left him joint 6th)
The second bet is for JB Holmes to hit the first shot for the US. He's only 8/13, but there have been a lot of hints and comments by Azinger about JB and Perry, and Azinger is keen to try to get any edge or perception of edge he can. And this will fire up the crowds from shot one. JB is more likely to hit first and play the odd holes as that means he will tee it up on the 600 yd 7th and the 350yd 13th where he drove the green yesterday. That will leave Perry with the other two par 5s, but the run down to the 1st green shortens that from its 594 yards on the card, and the tee shot from the top of the hill to the fairway below will allow JB to go for the green with his second on 18. So 8/13 JB to tee it up first for the US. (LOST -8.75 - Azinger threw us all a dummy then sent out his hotshots Kim and Mickelson and it was Lefty who hit first)
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Ryder Cupdate - Practice Day One
Europe to win Ryder Cup 21/20 (LOST/WON -6.75 - I really thought we could get 5 out of the last 6 points on offer, but hats off to the US - they played better golf. The Lost/Won is the loss of this bet but the winning 5/4 tip of US back in January)
Having seen both teams on the front nine today, I'm taking Paddy Power's 21/20 odds against. Firstly the Europeans are behaving more as a team - all 12 plus Faldo and Olazabal met on the first tee at eight for a little pep talk. Then off for the photo call and lots of joking around from Poulter, Sergio and Westwood. Then finally some golf.
The Yanks seemed to want to keep hitting the big dogs, whereas the Europeans were striking it well off the tee but seemed to spend more time on approaches, bunker shots, chips from the rough and putts to all areas of the greens. Their practice seemed more focussed, and looked to be executed much better.
The Europeans played in 3s - and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw 2 from each 3. That would be Garcia and Westwood, Poulter and Casey, Harrington and McDowell/Karlsson, Rose and Jiminez. Hanson and Karlsson were hitting long balls and both hit the green in one at 4th, and Westwood played the shot of the day into 7th green to leave himself an eagle putt on a very long par 5.
From the US fours, I think we may see Kentucky boys JB Holmes and Kenny Perry together, but Furyk walked on ahead of them and Boo Weekley and on several tees hit his drive while they were still signing autographs. Campbell, Cink, Stricker and Curtis was the middle four - Cink and Campbell seemed happy enough, but Stricker didn't seem too happy with his game. In the last match we might see Lefty (the only player to not sign a single autograph today) and Justin Leonard. Hunter Mahan seemed to be enjoying himself despite his comments a few weeks back, but Anthony Kim didn't come out for the afternoon 9 - preferring to spend time on the putting green.
So yes its a change of opinion, but all the signs are good for another sea of blue on the scoreboard, and with an odds against price available for the first time in months, I'm going for Paddy Power's 21/20 on Europe.
Having seen both teams on the front nine today, I'm taking Paddy Power's 21/20 odds against. Firstly the Europeans are behaving more as a team - all 12 plus Faldo and Olazabal met on the first tee at eight for a little pep talk. Then off for the photo call and lots of joking around from Poulter, Sergio and Westwood. Then finally some golf.
The Yanks seemed to want to keep hitting the big dogs, whereas the Europeans were striking it well off the tee but seemed to spend more time on approaches, bunker shots, chips from the rough and putts to all areas of the greens. Their practice seemed more focussed, and looked to be executed much better.
The Europeans played in 3s - and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw 2 from each 3. That would be Garcia and Westwood, Poulter and Casey, Harrington and McDowell/Karlsson, Rose and Jiminez. Hanson and Karlsson were hitting long balls and both hit the green in one at 4th, and Westwood played the shot of the day into 7th green to leave himself an eagle putt on a very long par 5.
From the US fours, I think we may see Kentucky boys JB Holmes and Kenny Perry together, but Furyk walked on ahead of them and Boo Weekley and on several tees hit his drive while they were still signing autographs. Campbell, Cink, Stricker and Curtis was the middle four - Cink and Campbell seemed happy enough, but Stricker didn't seem too happy with his game. In the last match we might see Lefty (the only player to not sign a single autograph today) and Justin Leonard. Hunter Mahan seemed to be enjoying himself despite his comments a few weeks back, but Anthony Kim didn't come out for the afternoon 9 - preferring to spend time on the putting green.
So yes its a change of opinion, but all the signs are good for another sea of blue on the scoreboard, and with an odds against price available for the first time in months, I'm going for Paddy Power's 21/20 on Europe.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Football
Greetings from the US Immigration queue at Dallas, Texas. I saw Captain Faldo and his team check in this morning and at 8am tomorrow I'm hoping to be there to see them hit their first practice drives at Valhalla. Ryder Cup tips to follow, but just football today.
7.45 Bristol C v Birmingham <2.5gls 6/5 (LOST -6.00 - Lee Trundle's late consolation for City made it 2-1)
Bristol City were the least interesting team in the Championship last season - topping the division for some time and missing out in the playoffs, but scoring less goals than relegated Leicester! Birmingham have been efficient rather than outstanding so far, so expect a quiet affair on the goals front at Ashton Gate.
7.45 Burnley draw with Blackpool 5/2 (LOST -7.00 - 2-0 to Burnley with 2 goals in last half hour)
Blackpool were the away draw specialists last season and have continued in the same vein this season. There is little to choose between the two sides anyway, so I expect the draw run to continue.
7.45 Bristol C v Birmingham <2.5gls 6/5 (LOST -6.00 - Lee Trundle's late consolation for City made it 2-1)
Bristol City were the least interesting team in the Championship last season - topping the division for some time and missing out in the playoffs, but scoring less goals than relegated Leicester! Birmingham have been efficient rather than outstanding so far, so expect a quiet affair on the goals front at Ashton Gate.
7.45 Burnley draw with Blackpool 5/2 (LOST -7.00 - 2-0 to Burnley with 2 goals in last half hour)
Blackpool were the away draw specialists last season and have continued in the same vein this season. There is little to choose between the two sides anyway, so I expect the draw run to continue.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Rugby, Football and Racing
Just back from a quick tour of Scandinavia where they are less bullish on their international teams than we are here. The Danes are just happy they got more medals at the Olympics than the Swedes! Not too much other than football in the papers today but there are a couple of ideas out there...
7.05 Lanelli HT-FT bt Dragons 3/4 (LOST -2.00 - Llanelli won the game but had to come from behind at half-time unfortunately)
I fancy the Welsh challenge to be strong in the Magners League this year and the two forerunners for me will be Cardiff and Llanelli. Llanelli signalled their intent at the weekend with a 16-9 victory at Ulster, while the Dragons lost 12-6 at home to Glasgow. Neither game was one for the purists, but I see both teams faring the same tonight, especially with the Scarlets at home, and they will want to stamp their authority early. So ignore the 4/9 to win the game and pick up a bit more wiht the 3/4 on them to win both at half-time and full-time.
7.15 Sweden v Hungary No Goalscorer 7/1 (LOST -3.00 - final score 2-1 to Sweden. A dull game until Sweden took the lead in the second half)
7.45 Albania, Portugal and Spain Treble 5/4 (LOST -4.00 - easy wins for Albania 3-0 and Spain 4-0, and Portugal were 1-0 up after 80 mins and 2-1 up after 85, but somehow conspired to lose 3-2!)
My Swedish friends tell me they were very impressed with Albania on Saturday when they had the better of a 0-0 with the Swedes, while Malta were taken apart 4-0 by Portugal. My other Scandinavian friends in Copenhagen say their national side is really struggling these days and saw no reason for optimism in a dull 0-0 with Hungary on Saturday. Given Sweden and Denmark drew 0-0 in European Championship qualifying this time last year and the Swedes have only scored 6 goals in their last 10 games, I can see a Hungary side who have scored 1 goal away from home in their last 5 games, getting another point in a no-scoring affair in Stockholm and 7/1 no goalscorer seems good value.
In the same group Albania's performance should be enough to overcome the group's whipping boys Malta, and Portugal should have plenty to beat Denmark in Lisbon, even without Christiano Ronaldo. Just to make a 5/4 price I've thrown in European Champions Spain to beat Armenia.
9.20 Kempton Dancing Dik e/w 11/2 (4th -5.00 - A blanket finish and our selection was only a length behind the leader but unfortunately 4th and just out the places)
Amanda Perrett's gelding came second here on his only previous run on the all-weather, and is running off a rating 4lbs lower today. Last time out on turf he was beaten 2lengths, being headed in the final furlong so the drop back to 11f from 12f may be the difference tonight, but he should be on the premises whatever happens.
7.05 Lanelli HT-FT bt Dragons 3/4 (LOST -2.00 - Llanelli won the game but had to come from behind at half-time unfortunately)
I fancy the Welsh challenge to be strong in the Magners League this year and the two forerunners for me will be Cardiff and Llanelli. Llanelli signalled their intent at the weekend with a 16-9 victory at Ulster, while the Dragons lost 12-6 at home to Glasgow. Neither game was one for the purists, but I see both teams faring the same tonight, especially with the Scarlets at home, and they will want to stamp their authority early. So ignore the 4/9 to win the game and pick up a bit more wiht the 3/4 on them to win both at half-time and full-time.
7.15 Sweden v Hungary No Goalscorer 7/1 (LOST -3.00 - final score 2-1 to Sweden. A dull game until Sweden took the lead in the second half)
7.45 Albania, Portugal and Spain Treble 5/4 (LOST -4.00 - easy wins for Albania 3-0 and Spain 4-0, and Portugal were 1-0 up after 80 mins and 2-1 up after 85, but somehow conspired to lose 3-2!)
My Swedish friends tell me they were very impressed with Albania on Saturday when they had the better of a 0-0 with the Swedes, while Malta were taken apart 4-0 by Portugal. My other Scandinavian friends in Copenhagen say their national side is really struggling these days and saw no reason for optimism in a dull 0-0 with Hungary on Saturday. Given Sweden and Denmark drew 0-0 in European Championship qualifying this time last year and the Swedes have only scored 6 goals in their last 10 games, I can see a Hungary side who have scored 1 goal away from home in their last 5 games, getting another point in a no-scoring affair in Stockholm and 7/1 no goalscorer seems good value.
In the same group Albania's performance should be enough to overcome the group's whipping boys Malta, and Portugal should have plenty to beat Denmark in Lisbon, even without Christiano Ronaldo. Just to make a 5/4 price I've thrown in European Champions Spain to beat Armenia.
9.20 Kempton Dancing Dik e/w 11/2 (4th -5.00 - A blanket finish and our selection was only a length behind the leader but unfortunately 4th and just out the places)
Amanda Perrett's gelding came second here on his only previous run on the all-weather, and is running off a rating 4lbs lower today. Last time out on turf he was beaten 2lengths, being headed in the final furlong so the drop back to 11f from 12f may be the difference tonight, but he should be on the premises whatever happens.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Racing, Tennis, Rugby League, Cricket
Firstly apologies for the lack of tips last month and so far this month. This month could be a bit sketchy with some business trips and the golf, but I'll do my best for you. And to start to make up for it there's a veritable feast today.
2.30 Catterick Placepot - MEETING ABANDONED
I'm never normally one for the multiples etc, but I fancy 3 at least so why not have some fun. And remember the law - the race after you get knocked out you will definitely have had the winner!
In the first Majuba has been progressing solidly and with all bar Mark Wallace's second string having shown their hand its one of the easier maidens to pick from.
Orchestrion is one of my fancied horses. She didnt like the drop back to 6f and the all-weather surface last time out, but back to 7f on turf should be in the picture again.
The 3.30 is the tough one, and I liked White Moss until it was withdrawn, so I'm going for Sporting Gesture. At 11, this will be his 110th race, but is still going strong with a good 2nd last time out and has won 4 of his 13 career wins in September.
Northern Bolt is the fourth leg in what looks a match bet between the two Nicholls horses. It will be close but I think Bolt's second place last time was very similar to Ice Planet's third, but the pound difference in weights could see him edge it this time.
Bertie Vista has progressed in all three of his runs at 7f and in a very poor maiden he should be the one to lose that tag.
And the final one I'm going for is Let It Be, looking for her fifth win in a row. She also has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs at course and distance. She will go up 1lb next week but still looked to have a bit in hand last week, so with last time's claimer taking 7lbs off again, she should be on the premises.
6.30 Jankovic to beat Dementieva 6/4 (WON +1.00 - straight sets victory)
Dementieva was the in-form player coming into this US Open, and hasn't dropped a set yet, but I think she is over-priced in this semi-final - her first real test so far. Previous meetings are definitely in Jelena's favour and she's still ranked 2 in the world, so hardly a spent force! Elena won on clay in Berlin, but Jankovic has won the previous two hard court meetings (2008 and 2006) in straight sets, and won 7 of the last 9 sets on all surfaces, which makes 6/4 very appealing)
8.00 Saints -14 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST +0.00 - a very strong start by Wigan saw Saints just claw back from a draw in tricky conditions)
There are claims being made that this could be the best Saints side of all time and I wouldnt argue against that. Their average winning margin this season is over 18 points and they look stronger every game they add to their unbeaten record. And if 18 is their average margin, Wigan are an average side. Won 13, lost 11, points difference of -50, and that negative margin is because they havent handled the top sides, as witnessed by their 52-16 mauling by Leeds last time out. Yes they'll be keen to put that right against their big rivals, but so far this season they have been beaten 57-16, 46-12, and the last meeting of last season was 46-10. If anything Saints have got better and Wigan worse, so that 14 point handicap should easily get covered.
Djokovic to win US Open 7/2 (LOST -1.00 - at 1-1 I thought he would storm back but Federer found his old form and stormed through)
The men's semi-finals arent til tomorrow, but I think Novak Djokovic's value will be gone after that. He is just odds against to beat Federer tomorrow but the Swiss master was less than convincing in his 3-0 victory over Giles Muller last night. A better player than 130th ranked Muller would have clinched the first and third set tie-breaks when the opportunities were given and Djokovic's pace and deep hitting ability will undo Federer if he continues to move sluggishly for him and fail to hit his first serve with his usual Swiss clock like regularity. That will then set up a final with Nadal (I cant see Murray beating him), against whom his record stands up. Rafa beat him in Beijing, but I'm not convinced it was 100% from either player that day, but even including that, Novak has won 4 of their last 6 meetings on hard courts, which have all been in the last two seasons, and all been done in straight sets! Djoko and Rafa to split the Slams two each.
2.30 Catterick Placepot - MEETING ABANDONED
I'm never normally one for the multiples etc, but I fancy 3 at least so why not have some fun. And remember the law - the race after you get knocked out you will definitely have had the winner!
In the first Majuba has been progressing solidly and with all bar Mark Wallace's second string having shown their hand its one of the easier maidens to pick from.
Orchestrion is one of my fancied horses. She didnt like the drop back to 6f and the all-weather surface last time out, but back to 7f on turf should be in the picture again.
The 3.30 is the tough one, and I liked White Moss until it was withdrawn, so I'm going for Sporting Gesture. At 11, this will be his 110th race, but is still going strong with a good 2nd last time out and has won 4 of his 13 career wins in September.
Northern Bolt is the fourth leg in what looks a match bet between the two Nicholls horses. It will be close but I think Bolt's second place last time was very similar to Ice Planet's third, but the pound difference in weights could see him edge it this time.
Bertie Vista has progressed in all three of his runs at 7f and in a very poor maiden he should be the one to lose that tag.
And the final one I'm going for is Let It Be, looking for her fifth win in a row. She also has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs at course and distance. She will go up 1lb next week but still looked to have a bit in hand last week, so with last time's claimer taking 7lbs off again, she should be on the premises.
6.30 Jankovic to beat Dementieva 6/4 (WON +1.00 - straight sets victory)
Dementieva was the in-form player coming into this US Open, and hasn't dropped a set yet, but I think she is over-priced in this semi-final - her first real test so far. Previous meetings are definitely in Jelena's favour and she's still ranked 2 in the world, so hardly a spent force! Elena won on clay in Berlin, but Jankovic has won the previous two hard court meetings (2008 and 2006) in straight sets, and won 7 of the last 9 sets on all surfaces, which makes 6/4 very appealing)
8.00 Saints -14 to beat Wigan 10/11 (LOST +0.00 - a very strong start by Wigan saw Saints just claw back from a draw in tricky conditions)
There are claims being made that this could be the best Saints side of all time and I wouldnt argue against that. Their average winning margin this season is over 18 points and they look stronger every game they add to their unbeaten record. And if 18 is their average margin, Wigan are an average side. Won 13, lost 11, points difference of -50, and that negative margin is because they havent handled the top sides, as witnessed by their 52-16 mauling by Leeds last time out. Yes they'll be keen to put that right against their big rivals, but so far this season they have been beaten 57-16, 46-12, and the last meeting of last season was 46-10. If anything Saints have got better and Wigan worse, so that 14 point handicap should easily get covered.
Djokovic to win US Open 7/2 (LOST -1.00 - at 1-1 I thought he would storm back but Federer found his old form and stormed through)
The men's semi-finals arent til tomorrow, but I think Novak Djokovic's value will be gone after that. He is just odds against to beat Federer tomorrow but the Swiss master was less than convincing in his 3-0 victory over Giles Muller last night. A better player than 130th ranked Muller would have clinched the first and third set tie-breaks when the opportunities were given and Djokovic's pace and deep hitting ability will undo Federer if he continues to move sluggishly for him and fail to hit his first serve with his usual Swiss clock like regularity. That will then set up a final with Nadal (I cant see Murray beating him), against whom his record stands up. Rafa beat him in Beijing, but I'm not convinced it was 100% from either player that day, but even including that, Novak has won 4 of their last 6 meetings on hard courts, which have all been in the last two seasons, and all been done in straight sets! Djoko and Rafa to split the Slams two each.
August Update
A lack of tips, and a down month. September's tips will be sporadic, but keep tuning in as there will be a daily update from Valhalla in Ryder Cup week. Still in profit since the start...
July loss : £7.98
Success rate : 32% (7/22)
Overall profit : £22.89
Overall success : 37% (120/323)
July loss : £7.98
Success rate : 32% (7/22)
Overall profit : £22.89
Overall success : 37% (120/323)
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Snooker, Racing and Football
After a refreshing break in Devon for a few days I'm back to get us in the black for August!
1.00 Mark Williams to beat Mark Allen 10/11 (LOST 5-3 -5.98 - At 4-0 down it didnt look good, but at 4-3 Lazarus was in the house! Alas a missed black and the door was closed)
Mark Williams played more like Frank Williams at various points last season and relinquished his spot in the top 16, meaning he has to play the first round of many of the tournaments this season. But that extra match seems to have sharpened him up this week. To the point that he dispatched world number three Shaun Murphy 5-2 in the second round. Meanwhile his opponent today struggled past Dominic Dale 5-4. Williams' form last season is why the bookies have it as an even game, but he looks to be showing some of his old form and genuine talent, and that should be good enough to win today.
2.20 Lingfield Gracechurch 3/1 (2nd -6.98 - Unfortunately our man was caught a little naive and too far off the pace and couldnt get the horse up to catch the winner soon enough)
I wouldn't normally get involved in an Apprentice Handicap for £2000, but there is one apprentice out there who is currently ahead of the rest. Louis-Philippe Beuzelin has ridden 3 winners from his 26 runs so far, as well as another 9 horses he has steered home for place money. And of those that havent made the winners enclosure, he has often registered a finishing position better than the horse ranked in the betting ring - an important statistic when looking at apprentice jockeys, given they dont always get the best rides. Better judges than myself have seen fit to rate him - he has already ridden for Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor amongst others - and it was Stoute who brought him over after seeinghim ride winners in the Caribbean. Look for another cool ride to make it 4 from 27.
6 Omonia Nicosia bt AEK Athens 11/4 (2-2 -7.98 - We were pretty unlucky there with taking the lead twice and AEK equalising late on just after Nicosia had hit the post!)
On first glance you wouldnt hesitate to say AEK Athens will win this match. The Greeks have a long history of European football and successfully negotiated the group stages of last year's UEFA Cup. But Greek club football isn't as strong as it is. You may also at first glance dismiss Cypriot football, but they have come on leaps and bounds in the last few years - particularly at home. In the European Championships qualifying the national side beat Ireland, Wales, Armenia and San Marino at home, and Germany to a 1-1 draw, and many of the Nicosia players make up the Cypriot national side. Nicosia won both legs of their previous round tie, not conceding at home, and then went and surprised a lot of people with a 1-0 victory in Athens. Bookies are still not prepared to dismiss the Greek's hostoric supremacy over Cyprus in footballing terms, so we should take advantage at 11/4 for the home side.
1.00 Mark Williams to beat Mark Allen 10/11 (LOST 5-3 -5.98 - At 4-0 down it didnt look good, but at 4-3 Lazarus was in the house! Alas a missed black and the door was closed)
Mark Williams played more like Frank Williams at various points last season and relinquished his spot in the top 16, meaning he has to play the first round of many of the tournaments this season. But that extra match seems to have sharpened him up this week. To the point that he dispatched world number three Shaun Murphy 5-2 in the second round. Meanwhile his opponent today struggled past Dominic Dale 5-4. Williams' form last season is why the bookies have it as an even game, but he looks to be showing some of his old form and genuine talent, and that should be good enough to win today.
2.20 Lingfield Gracechurch 3/1 (2nd -6.98 - Unfortunately our man was caught a little naive and too far off the pace and couldnt get the horse up to catch the winner soon enough)
I wouldn't normally get involved in an Apprentice Handicap for £2000, but there is one apprentice out there who is currently ahead of the rest. Louis-Philippe Beuzelin has ridden 3 winners from his 26 runs so far, as well as another 9 horses he has steered home for place money. And of those that havent made the winners enclosure, he has often registered a finishing position better than the horse ranked in the betting ring - an important statistic when looking at apprentice jockeys, given they dont always get the best rides. Better judges than myself have seen fit to rate him - he has already ridden for Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor amongst others - and it was Stoute who brought him over after seeinghim ride winners in the Caribbean. Look for another cool ride to make it 4 from 27.
6 Omonia Nicosia bt AEK Athens 11/4 (2-2 -7.98 - We were pretty unlucky there with taking the lead twice and AEK equalising late on just after Nicosia had hit the post!)
On first glance you wouldnt hesitate to say AEK Athens will win this match. The Greeks have a long history of European football and successfully negotiated the group stages of last year's UEFA Cup. But Greek club football isn't as strong as it is. You may also at first glance dismiss Cypriot football, but they have come on leaps and bounds in the last few years - particularly at home. In the European Championships qualifying the national side beat Ireland, Wales, Armenia and San Marino at home, and Germany to a 1-1 draw, and many of the Nicosia players make up the Cypriot national side. Nicosia won both legs of their previous round tie, not conceding at home, and then went and surprised a lot of people with a 1-0 victory in Athens. Bookies are still not prepared to dismiss the Greek's hostoric supremacy over Cyprus in footballing terms, so we should take advantage at 11/4 for the home side.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Football
What an appalling abject performance last night! Different manager, same lack of effort, creativity, and the same useless lumps like Heskey, Beckham and Lampard keep getting picked. Change the f*cking record!
7.45 Oxford bt Wrexham 12/5 (LOST 2-0 -4.98) -
Two promotion hopefuls whose form has gone different ways in the first 3 games. Wrexham fans must have thought this non-league lark would be easy when they thrashed Stevenage 5-0 on the opening day, but subsequent 1-0 defeat and 1-1 draw at Rushden have added a dose of reality. Oxford fans meanwhile would have been worried after not scoring in their first two games, but 6 goals by 5 different players against Eastbourne will have them hoping it was just early season peculiarities. And last season they didn't do draws away from home - 10 wins and 10 defeats. So you're almost betting 'draw no bet'! While Wrexham at home should be favourites, Oxford do have some momentum now and 12/5 looks a touch generous.
7.45 Oxford bt Wrexham 12/5 (LOST 2-0 -4.98) -
Two promotion hopefuls whose form has gone different ways in the first 3 games. Wrexham fans must have thought this non-league lark would be easy when they thrashed Stevenage 5-0 on the opening day, but subsequent 1-0 defeat and 1-1 draw at Rushden have added a dose of reality. Oxford fans meanwhile would have been worried after not scoring in their first two games, but 6 goals by 5 different players against Eastbourne will have them hoping it was just early season peculiarities. And last season they didn't do draws away from home - 10 wins and 10 defeats. So you're almost betting 'draw no bet'! While Wrexham at home should be favourites, Oxford do have some momentum now and 12/5 looks a touch generous.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Football
Apologies for no tips yesterday, especially I would have advised you to join me in tipping Christine Ohourougu, and as we were tripped up by Lolo Jones' stumble. But with Usain easing his way to 200m victory and the crazy situation of no racing in Britain this afternoon - it is the middle of bloody August!!!!! - that only leaves me with the football tonight.
8.00 England win to nil 6/4 (LOST -3.98 - What an appalling performance. No better than under MacLaren)
Fabio Capello's England havent exactly been thrilling to watch, but they have stopped leaking goals. The last three games have been 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and while I dont expect that series to continue, I do expect captaincy rivals Terry and Ferdinand to keep the door firmly closed to Milan Baros. Expect England to win, as they do against most middling nations at Wembley, and so 1-0 or 2-0 have to be the scores to watch. You could back them each, but just in case the Czechs give up in the second half I'll go with a win to nil with Skybet, Paddy, or Ladbrokes.
8.00 England win to nil 6/4 (LOST -3.98 - What an appalling performance. No better than under MacLaren)
Fabio Capello's England havent exactly been thrilling to watch, but they have stopped leaking goals. The last three games have been 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and while I dont expect that series to continue, I do expect captaincy rivals Terry and Ferdinand to keep the door firmly closed to Milan Baros. Expect England to win, as they do against most middling nations at Wembley, and so 1-0 or 2-0 have to be the scores to watch. You could back them each, but just in case the Czechs give up in the second half I'll go with a win to nil with Skybet, Paddy, or Ladbrokes.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Athletics, Cricket and Football
What a weekend! Makes you proud to be British. Now just to keep those convicts at bay for 3rd place in the medals table. But today is all about athletics, with a cricket bet which is likely to be rained off.
12.40 Jones to win 100m Hurdles 9/4 (7th -1.15 - all looked good til a late stumble cost her)
Lolo Jones ran the fastest time of the year just last month in qualifying for the Olympics. Bridgitte Foster-Hylton has matched that but not this year. Lolo has the semi at lunchtime today before the final tomorrow afternoon, but get on now for the value.
1.10 Saladino to win Long Jump 8/11 (WON -0.42 - too easy for Irving. Anytime anyone got close, he went further)
Irving Saladino this year jumped further than anyone has for 14 years, which in athletics is a long time! There are whispers Mike Powell's 8.95m 17 year old world record could be in danger in this final, but the result is barely in doubt as the Panamanian has jumped a whole foot further than anyone else this year. In qualifying he has two fouls so just made a safe 8.01m, but expect another couple of feet on that in the final.
1.45 Kent bt Derbyshire 4/9 (WON +0.02 - Derbyshire 60
Kent are unbeaten in their three Pro40 games this season, and were on top last Monday when the farce with the wind and the floodlights abandoned the game with Leicestershire. Derbyshire however, have only won one game. Some may doubt Kent having lost on Saturday but Rob Key's attitude will makes sure his charges are back fighting today, and I expect he and Joe Denly to make Derbyshire's bowlers toil - they went through a 4 day game last week versus Kent's easy build up to the final.
2.10 Kemboi to win 3000m Steeplechase 7/2 (LOST -1.02 - took the lead going into last lap but couldnt stay the pace)
Ezekiel Kemboi was 4th in his heat to qualify for the final in the fastest heat - his time was the 4th fastest of all three heats. But he has plenty in reserve - the three who just edged ahead of him all ran personal or season best times. He is second favourite to Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong but Kemboi is defending champion and has a PB 3 seconds quicker than the favourite. Expect him to ris to the occasion again today.
3 Clement win 400m Hurdles 5/4 (2nd -1.98 - Another who looked good coming into the straight but Angelo found another reserve)
Kerron Clement is the fastest man over this event since Kevin Young set his world record in Barcelona 16 years ago. This year he hasnt quite reached that tims, but he is one of only two men in the final go under 48 seconds. He won the world championships last year and ahs won all four Golden League, Super Grand Prix and Grand Prix races he has run this year. Expect this to cap things off.
7.45 Gash 1st goalscorer 9/1 (1/2 1-2-3) (LOST -2.98 - we got the result right, but not the bet unfortunately)
Ebbsfleet only have one point from 2 games and Torquay have four, hence why the Gulls are odds on tonight, but don't discount the visitors. Their defeat on Tuesday night came at a Rushden side who are looking to get back into the league, and the opening day draw was at relegated Mansfield, so tow of the best side's in the division. Similarly Torquay's 2-1 home victory were against early strugglers Woking who have lost all three so far, and Histon who just escaped relegation last season. The prices on the game have meant that first goalscorer odds are also skewed, and Ebbsfleet's favourite to score, Michael Gash, is available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes. He scored the first goal at Mansfield last week continuing his record of 27 in 29 goals last season in the Conference South for Cambridge. With Ladbrokes offering 1/2 odds for first three scorers he seems excellent value.
12.40 Jones to win 100m Hurdles 9/4 (7th -1.15 - all looked good til a late stumble cost her)
Lolo Jones ran the fastest time of the year just last month in qualifying for the Olympics. Bridgitte Foster-Hylton has matched that but not this year. Lolo has the semi at lunchtime today before the final tomorrow afternoon, but get on now for the value.
1.10 Saladino to win Long Jump 8/11 (WON -0.42 - too easy for Irving. Anytime anyone got close, he went further)
Irving Saladino this year jumped further than anyone has for 14 years, which in athletics is a long time! There are whispers Mike Powell's 8.95m 17 year old world record could be in danger in this final, but the result is barely in doubt as the Panamanian has jumped a whole foot further than anyone else this year. In qualifying he has two fouls so just made a safe 8.01m, but expect another couple of feet on that in the final.
1.45 Kent bt Derbyshire 4/9 (WON +0.02 - Derbyshire 60
Kent are unbeaten in their three Pro40 games this season, and were on top last Monday when the farce with the wind and the floodlights abandoned the game with Leicestershire. Derbyshire however, have only won one game. Some may doubt Kent having lost on Saturday but Rob Key's attitude will makes sure his charges are back fighting today, and I expect he and Joe Denly to make Derbyshire's bowlers toil - they went through a 4 day game last week versus Kent's easy build up to the final.
2.10 Kemboi to win 3000m Steeplechase 7/2 (LOST -1.02 - took the lead going into last lap but couldnt stay the pace)
Ezekiel Kemboi was 4th in his heat to qualify for the final in the fastest heat - his time was the 4th fastest of all three heats. But he has plenty in reserve - the three who just edged ahead of him all ran personal or season best times. He is second favourite to Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong but Kemboi is defending champion and has a PB 3 seconds quicker than the favourite. Expect him to ris to the occasion again today.
3 Clement win 400m Hurdles 5/4 (2nd -1.98 - Another who looked good coming into the straight but Angelo found another reserve)
Kerron Clement is the fastest man over this event since Kevin Young set his world record in Barcelona 16 years ago. This year he hasnt quite reached that tims, but he is one of only two men in the final go under 48 seconds. He won the world championships last year and ahs won all four Golden League, Super Grand Prix and Grand Prix races he has run this year. Expect this to cap things off.
7.45 Gash 1st goalscorer 9/1 (1/2 1-2-3) (LOST -2.98 - we got the result right, but not the bet unfortunately)
Ebbsfleet only have one point from 2 games and Torquay have four, hence why the Gulls are odds on tonight, but don't discount the visitors. Their defeat on Tuesday night came at a Rushden side who are looking to get back into the league, and the opening day draw was at relegated Mansfield, so tow of the best side's in the division. Similarly Torquay's 2-1 home victory were against early strugglers Woking who have lost all three so far, and Histon who just escaped relegation last season. The prices on the game have meant that first goalscorer odds are also skewed, and Ebbsfleet's favourite to score, Michael Gash, is available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes. He scored the first goal at Mansfield last week continuing his record of 27 in 29 goals last season in the Conference South for Cambridge. With Ladbrokes offering 1/2 odds for first three scorers he seems excellent value.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Racing and Cycling
Yesterday's tennis was held over and took some time to finish so apologies for today's late post.
7.45 Catterick Fire Up The Band 2/1 (5th -1.98 - stumbled out the stalls and then failed to get close at the business end)
This 9 year old was running at Royal Ascot two years ago and at Goodwood and the Derby meeting last year. He has now dropped to sellers and claimers this year and has performed best on softer ground, with 2 second places on GS and Soft, both by just half a length. 2/1 is not overly generous, but it wont take much to see off the rest of these.
9.50am Chris Hoy to win Keirin 5/6 (WON -1.15 - too easy for the machine on a bike. Knight him!)
Chris Hoy was awesome in the team sprint today, showing the power he has used so effectively to win 24 consecutive Keirin events, including a World Championship and one on this track. British cycling is in ridiculous health and there will be three more medals tomorrow - of which Hoy will be one.
GB to get 7 or more golds on Saturday 13/8 (WON -0.15 - Hills paid out as postponements still count if replayed within a week!)
Hills have provided a special market on Golden Saturday as it will be known. As mentioned above Hoy will win, Bradley Wiggins showed why he is so odds on to win the mens pursuit. And one of the two GB girls who qualified first and second in the womens pursuit will complete the cycling trio. Ben Ainslie and the Yngling girls are all set for gold in the sailing, as is Rebecca Adlington in her favoured event in the pool looking to double her personal tally steering with her nose. The coxless four look superior to any other boat on the water and there are also a handful of other boats in finals tomorrow. Kelly Southerton may still reach top spot in the heptathlon despite a poor high jump today too. So barring a disaster, admittedly which GB tend to specialise in, there should be seven plus renditions of God Save The Queen tomorrow in Beijing.
7.45 Catterick Fire Up The Band 2/1 (5th -1.98 - stumbled out the stalls and then failed to get close at the business end)
This 9 year old was running at Royal Ascot two years ago and at Goodwood and the Derby meeting last year. He has now dropped to sellers and claimers this year and has performed best on softer ground, with 2 second places on GS and Soft, both by just half a length. 2/1 is not overly generous, but it wont take much to see off the rest of these.
9.50am Chris Hoy to win Keirin 5/6 (WON -1.15 - too easy for the machine on a bike. Knight him!)
Chris Hoy was awesome in the team sprint today, showing the power he has used so effectively to win 24 consecutive Keirin events, including a World Championship and one on this track. British cycling is in ridiculous health and there will be three more medals tomorrow - of which Hoy will be one.
GB to get 7 or more golds on Saturday 13/8 (WON -0.15 - Hills paid out as postponements still count if replayed within a week!)
Hills have provided a special market on Golden Saturday as it will be known. As mentioned above Hoy will win, Bradley Wiggins showed why he is so odds on to win the mens pursuit. And one of the two GB girls who qualified first and second in the womens pursuit will complete the cycling trio. Ben Ainslie and the Yngling girls are all set for gold in the sailing, as is Rebecca Adlington in her favoured event in the pool looking to double her personal tally steering with her nose. The coxless four look superior to any other boat on the water and there are also a handful of other boats in finals tomorrow. Kelly Southerton may still reach top spot in the heptathlon despite a poor high jump today too. So barring a disaster, admittedly which GB tend to specialise in, there should be seven plus renditions of God Save The Queen tomorrow in Beijing.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Olympic Tennis Double
A quiet summer Thursday, so not much to choose from. But gearing up for the athletics starting tomorrow in Beijing, and finally seeing the end of that gormless swimmer. Greatest Olympian? Do me a favour. Its time they got rid of all those strokes in swimming - its like Ministry of Silly Walks! Just who can swim x metres fastest gets gold. End of.
10 Gonzalez & Safina Double 2/1 (WON -0.98 - Gonzo was taken to 11-9 in the third set and Safina was taken to 3 sets but both are now in the finals)
You may by now have guessed I think Fernando Gonzalez has a chance of winning a medal. He has looked strong so far and the key to his game has been his return of serve and break point conversion as a result. Both he and Paul-Henri Mathieu, his opponent today, win 2 out of 3 points on their own serve and Gonzo has saved 66% of break points to Mathieu's 63%. But Gonzo wins 1 in 4 return games, to the Frenchman's 1 in 5, converting 44% of break points versus 35%. I expect this trend to continue today.
The value in the double comes from Dinara Safina taking on number one ranked Jelena Jankovic. But Safina triumphed in their only meeting this year, and on grass last year Jankovic won, but only by 8-6 in a 3rd set tie break. Safina has looked much more assured in this competition, so well worth your money.
10 Gonzalez & Safina Double 2/1 (WON -0.98 - Gonzo was taken to 11-9 in the third set and Safina was taken to 3 sets but both are now in the finals)
You may by now have guessed I think Fernando Gonzalez has a chance of winning a medal. He has looked strong so far and the key to his game has been his return of serve and break point conversion as a result. Both he and Paul-Henri Mathieu, his opponent today, win 2 out of 3 points on their own serve and Gonzo has saved 66% of break points to Mathieu's 63%. But Gonzo wins 1 in 4 return games, to the Frenchman's 1 in 5, converting 44% of break points versus 35%. I expect this trend to continue today.
The value in the double comes from Dinara Safina taking on number one ranked Jelena Jankovic. But Safina triumphed in their only meeting this year, and on grass last year Jankovic won, but only by 8-6 in a 3rd set tie break. Safina has looked much more assured in this competition, so well worth your money.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Cricket, Racing and Football
Getting back towards flat again. A winner today and we're back in the black...
4.40 Michael Lumb to topscore for Hampshire 4/1 (LOST -1.98 - Typical. We get on and he scores 1 run!)
Michael Lumb is fast becoming another journeyman of county cricket, but of late he has switched well to the 40 over format. Hampshire were 31 runs short of Notts 231 last month, but Lumb still scored 63 of the 200, at just shy of a run a ball; and then scored 88 off 91 balls in the 236 target his side set Gloucs in 35 overs on Sunday. Both were easily the highest scores on the Hampshire card, and he is available at 4/1 in a number of places.
8.10 Sandown Riverscape 4/1 (4th -2.98 - looked like the winner 1.5f from home but weakened on the run-in. Maybe prefers the quicker ground)
This is pretty much a rematch from 2 weeks ago over course and distance when Riverscape finished a neck clear of Rock Peak, 2l clear of Silk Mill who carries 2lbs more but Kirsty claims 3lbs, and a further 4l clear of Tyrells Wood who carries 2lbs less. So I expect it to be between Riverscape and Rock Peak again and with Riverscape improving, while Rock Peak is still dropping to find his level, I'll take the favourite.
And one of my rare long-term bets. The Premiership is down to your own opinion. For me its Chelsea as they had a lot of hurdles to overcome last year, still finished only 2 points off United, and have improved their squad again this year. But the best bet for me is in the goalscoring department. Darren Bent was an excellent striker, which is why Spurs shelled out £18m for him. However, a poor start by the team in general and a lack of goals for Bent weighed on his confidence and his spot in the side last season. But that hasn't made him a bad striker, and to prove that in pre-season he has netted 13 goals. With Berbatov set to leave he will be Ramos' first choice and with David Bentley adding to the creation of chances, Bent could soon be justifying that price tag, without it weighing on his shoulders this season. There are question marks over all the other market leaders - will Torres play enough Premier League games? Ronaldo cant do it again can he? Which Adebayor will we see - early or late season? Tevez/Ronaldo/Berbatov will rotate too much? And with 1/4 odds for the first 4, 25/1 seems a cracking bet.
4.40 Michael Lumb to topscore for Hampshire 4/1 (LOST -1.98 - Typical. We get on and he scores 1 run!)
Michael Lumb is fast becoming another journeyman of county cricket, but of late he has switched well to the 40 over format. Hampshire were 31 runs short of Notts 231 last month, but Lumb still scored 63 of the 200, at just shy of a run a ball; and then scored 88 off 91 balls in the 236 target his side set Gloucs in 35 overs on Sunday. Both were easily the highest scores on the Hampshire card, and he is available at 4/1 in a number of places.
8.10 Sandown Riverscape 4/1 (4th -2.98 - looked like the winner 1.5f from home but weakened on the run-in. Maybe prefers the quicker ground)
This is pretty much a rematch from 2 weeks ago over course and distance when Riverscape finished a neck clear of Rock Peak, 2l clear of Silk Mill who carries 2lbs more but Kirsty claims 3lbs, and a further 4l clear of Tyrells Wood who carries 2lbs less. So I expect it to be between Riverscape and Rock Peak again and with Riverscape improving, while Rock Peak is still dropping to find his level, I'll take the favourite.
And one of my rare long-term bets. The Premiership is down to your own opinion. For me its Chelsea as they had a lot of hurdles to overcome last year, still finished only 2 points off United, and have improved their squad again this year. But the best bet for me is in the goalscoring department. Darren Bent was an excellent striker, which is why Spurs shelled out £18m for him. However, a poor start by the team in general and a lack of goals for Bent weighed on his confidence and his spot in the side last season. But that hasn't made him a bad striker, and to prove that in pre-season he has netted 13 goals. With Berbatov set to leave he will be Ramos' first choice and with David Bentley adding to the creation of chances, Bent could soon be justifying that price tag, without it weighing on his shoulders this season. There are question marks over all the other market leaders - will Torres play enough Premier League games? Ronaldo cant do it again can he? Which Adebayor will we see - early or late season? Tevez/Ronaldo/Berbatov will rotate too much? And with 1/4 odds for the first 4, 25/1 seems a cracking bet.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Olympic Special - Football, Tennis and Basketball
Not the best start to the month, but a few alternative bets today to get us on the move.
10 Brazil to beat Nigeria & Germany bt Korea Double 12/13 (WON -1.08 - Brazil cruised while Germany required a late winner)
A women's football double for you here. This is the last round of games in the group stages and so far Brazil drew with Germany and both sides then beat each other's opposition, so when playing the other team today, its fair to assume two more victories for the more established women's football nations - either of whom has a good shout for winning the gold medal.
11.30 Nalbandian & Gonzalez Double 11/10 (WON +0.02 - two straightforward straight sets victories)
Another Olympic double, in the tennis this time. Despite semmingly being around for a long time now, David Nalbandian is still only 26 and ranked 8th in the world. Four years ago Nicolas Massu was ranked 9th but has been on a downward spiral since and is now a lowly 125th, although the last time they played was at the height of Massu's form and Nalbandian won both the last two ties. So he can be expecting a straightforward victory.
Marian Cilic beat Fernando Gonzalez in 4 sets at the Australian Open back in January, but since then the form has gone in different directions. Gonzo has picked up two titles and won over 70% of his matches, while the Croat has just about won more than he has lost, so it seems it is that win in Melbourne and a recent Masters Series quarter final in Canada that is helping us get 8/11 about the Spaniard. So take advantage and double it up to get an odds against return.
3.15 Australia bt Argentina 9/2 (LOST -0.98 - 3-pointers again. This time Australia's fault only making 2 of 13 attempts. A reasonable 50% strike rate would have made it very close)
Both these basketball teams lost their opening games, so will be looking to make amends today. Australia were beaten by 15 points by Croatia but finished strongly, having been hammered by the Croats 75% success rate on 3-point attempts! A more normal success rate would have seen a much closer game. The Argies werent firing on all cyclinders either going down to Lithuania by a handful of points, so it may well come down to who can bounce back the better, as thre was only 4 points between these teams in a warm-up tournament a fortnight ago. So 9/2 looks a big price for a reversal.
10 Brazil to beat Nigeria & Germany bt Korea Double 12/13 (WON -1.08 - Brazil cruised while Germany required a late winner)
A women's football double for you here. This is the last round of games in the group stages and so far Brazil drew with Germany and both sides then beat each other's opposition, so when playing the other team today, its fair to assume two more victories for the more established women's football nations - either of whom has a good shout for winning the gold medal.
11.30 Nalbandian & Gonzalez Double 11/10 (WON +0.02 - two straightforward straight sets victories)
Another Olympic double, in the tennis this time. Despite semmingly being around for a long time now, David Nalbandian is still only 26 and ranked 8th in the world. Four years ago Nicolas Massu was ranked 9th but has been on a downward spiral since and is now a lowly 125th, although the last time they played was at the height of Massu's form and Nalbandian won both the last two ties. So he can be expecting a straightforward victory.
Marian Cilic beat Fernando Gonzalez in 4 sets at the Australian Open back in January, but since then the form has gone in different directions. Gonzo has picked up two titles and won over 70% of his matches, while the Croat has just about won more than he has lost, so it seems it is that win in Melbourne and a recent Masters Series quarter final in Canada that is helping us get 8/11 about the Spaniard. So take advantage and double it up to get an odds against return.
3.15 Australia bt Argentina 9/2 (LOST -0.98 - 3-pointers again. This time Australia's fault only making 2 of 13 attempts. A reasonable 50% strike rate would have made it very close)
Both these basketball teams lost their opening games, so will be looking to make amends today. Australia were beaten by 15 points by Croatia but finished strongly, having been hammered by the Croats 75% success rate on 3-point attempts! A more normal success rate would have seen a much closer game. The Argies werent firing on all cyclinders either going down to Lithuania by a handful of points, so it may well come down to who can bounce back the better, as thre was only 4 points between these teams in a warm-up tournament a fortnight ago. So 9/2 looks a big price for a reversal.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Football and Racing
7.45 Sandaza to score first goal e/w 11/2 (LOST -1.00 - The Accies flew out the blocks and were impressive, especially coming back from 1-0 down against the run of play)
Dundee United finished fifth last season despite falling away towards the end as injuries, suspensions and rearranged matches took their toll. And Craig Levein has made some shrewd signings to enhance that squad. The one he'll be hoping can really come up trumps is the 23 year old, 6ft 2in Spanish centre forward Fran Sandaza, signed from Valencia where he scored 23 goals for their reserves. Hamilton havn't been in the top flight since 1989 and, I therefore think the bookies are offering fair odds on Dundee United, but a bet on Sandaza to net in that victory should reap better rewards. He has cored three goals in pre-season including the only goal in last week's final warm-up away at Plymouth. Corals are offering 11/2 for him to get the first goal again and offer each way terms of 1/3 odds on first five scorers.
8.20 Windsor Compton Charlie 4/1 (5th -2.00 - Went off 11/4 fav but couldn't go with the front two and ended up finishing alongside Mixing)
This gelding has been very consistent this season, with a win and two second places in his five runs, and each time looks better for the run. With the favourite now having pulled out and the topweight still carrying too much weight, Pat Cosgrave could steer this home for his second victory. Kirsty is the danger on Mixing - a reasonable each way shout at 7s.
Dundee United finished fifth last season despite falling away towards the end as injuries, suspensions and rearranged matches took their toll. And Craig Levein has made some shrewd signings to enhance that squad. The one he'll be hoping can really come up trumps is the 23 year old, 6ft 2in Spanish centre forward Fran Sandaza, signed from Valencia where he scored 23 goals for their reserves. Hamilton havn't been in the top flight since 1989 and, I therefore think the bookies are offering fair odds on Dundee United, but a bet on Sandaza to net in that victory should reap better rewards. He has cored three goals in pre-season including the only goal in last week's final warm-up away at Plymouth. Corals are offering 11/2 for him to get the first goal again and offer each way terms of 1/3 odds on first five scorers.
8.20 Windsor Compton Charlie 4/1 (5th -2.00 - Went off 11/4 fav but couldn't go with the front two and ended up finishing alongside Mixing)
This gelding has been very consistent this season, with a win and two second places in his five runs, and each time looks better for the run. With the favourite now having pulled out and the topweight still carrying too much weight, Pat Cosgrave could steer this home for his second victory. Kirsty is the danger on Mixing - a reasonable each way shout at 7s.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Cricket
The same combination as yesterday but hopefully a different result!
11 Monty to be top England bowler 4/1 (LOST +16.58 - one LBW decision from running through Sth Africa but it didnt come)
England's attack came under scrutiny after Headingley, but Broad and Les are gone and in comes reliable Sidey and Colly's occasional swingers - which will mean more bowling for Monty. He's the leading wicket taker so far in the series on tracks which weren't necessarily spinner friendly tracks, and bear in mind, that most of the bowling has been in the first innings. While the groundsman at Edgbaston says the pitch will suit the swing bowlers, he also expects it to crack and crumble towards the end, making Monty even more likely to take wickets. So him being 4th favourite and 4/1 seems too good to miss!
11 Monty to be top England bowler 4/1 (LOST +16.58 - one LBW decision from running through Sth Africa but it didnt come)
England's attack came under scrutiny after Headingley, but Broad and Les are gone and in comes reliable Sidey and Colly's occasional swingers - which will mean more bowling for Monty. He's the leading wicket taker so far in the series on tracks which weren't necessarily spinner friendly tracks, and bear in mind, that most of the bowling has been in the first innings. While the groundsman at Edgbaston says the pitch will suit the swing bowlers, he also expects it to crack and crumble towards the end, making Monty even more likely to take wickets. So him being 4th favourite and 4/1 seems too good to miss!
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Racing and Cricket
Something you should all be aware of. You should all know by now my leaning to Bet365 given their excellent range of markets, easy to use website and mobile betting services, and most importantly their best odds guaranteed on all horse racing. Well Paddy Power have stepped up and are now offering the same on all horse and greyhound racing. And with their random special offers on various markets, this makes them another 'must have account'. http://www.paddypower.com/
3.45 Beverley Motafarred 3/1 (LOST +19.58 - was held up near the rear and missed the kick of the first two, and despite finishing well was never going to get to them)
Two solid trends for this race - you have to go back more than 10 years to find a 3-y-o winner and, with the exception of 2004 when Splodger Mac at 66/1 touched off the 3/1 fav by a neck, every winner since 1999 has no longer than 5/1. Mesbaah has been inconsistent, although the firmer ground suits him, and so I'm going for Micky Hammond's Motafarred who ran well to win at Pontefract on good to firm in May, his second win on that ground (his other was on firm), and has been progressing nicely since.
We havent been over jumps for a while, but I've spotted a nice each way opportunity north of the border tonight. Peter Niven and Brian Hughes had a nice second last night at Uttoxeter and they team up again tonight. This horse was back over hurdles for the first time in 21 months four weeks ago also at this track, and he was straight back into it. His one hurdles win came at this track too, so with the genuine possibility of him coming on for his first run at a racetrack in 6 months, a place can definitely be expected.
3.45 Beverley Motafarred 3/1 (LOST +19.58 - was held up near the rear and missed the kick of the first two, and despite finishing well was never going to get to them)
Two solid trends for this race - you have to go back more than 10 years to find a 3-y-o winner and, with the exception of 2004 when Splodger Mac at 66/1 touched off the 3/1 fav by a neck, every winner since 1999 has no longer than 5/1. Mesbaah has been inconsistent, although the firmer ground suits him, and so I'm going for Micky Hammond's Motafarred who ran well to win at Pontefract on good to firm in May, his second win on that ground (his other was on firm), and has been progressing nicely since.
4.40 Leicestershire beat Warwickshire 13/10 (LOST +18.58 - another high scoring game with 277 the target, and again a good start but quick wickets saw the chase fall away)
As we saw last night, Essex are a very handy one day side these days, despite being in Division Two of the Pro 40 league. They have now won 2 and tied one of their 3 games in this format, are in the final of the Friends Provident and reached the semis of the 20/20. So Leicestershires 255 runs per side tie against them last week can be franked as a good performance. And with 5 wins from 7 completed games in the FP, that result wasnt just a one off. Both FP games between these sides were affected by rain. The first was reduced to 23 overs a side and Leicestershire won. The second was interrupted and eventually abandoned 19 overs into Leicestershire's innings after a steady start and they can count themselves unlucky to lose under D/L. Warwickshire are a decent outfit, that is not to be denied, and they will be desparate not to lose their second game in this tournament after Kent took the spoils last week. But those stats for Leicestershire and a 13/10 price are too tempting.
8.45 Perth Mystic Glen e/w 7/1 (LOST +17.58 - they finished very strung out and our selection was way back)We havent been over jumps for a while, but I've spotted a nice each way opportunity north of the border tonight. Peter Niven and Brian Hughes had a nice second last night at Uttoxeter and they team up again tonight. This horse was back over hurdles for the first time in 21 months four weeks ago also at this track, and he was straight back into it. His one hurdles win came at this track too, so with the genuine possibility of him coming on for his first run at a racetrack in 6 months, a place can definitely be expected.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Cricket
A marvellously hot weekend. Bet365 finally let me down yesterday with no prices on the polo! For the record I would have backed Australia to beat England, but the good news was that the convicts were dispatched 10-9. It must be tough to ride a horse with a ball and chain on your leg though! Just the one bet today on a quiet Monday...
4.10 Derbyshire to beat Essex 6/4 (LOST +20.58 - Derbyshire continued to bat well, only really falling away late on when chasing 304. But Bopara's 112* and 4-52 were the match winners)
Derbyshire have been scoring runs for fun in July. In the tour match against Bangladesh A last week 298-6 in 75 overs in first innings; knocking off 222 for 4 in 35 overs against a useful Northants attack including Hall, van der Wath, Klusener and Boje; 485-7 in just 113 overs, and 278 for 5 in 60 overs against the same attack in a championship game. In the Friends Provident Trophy they missed out on qualifying when they were the only side in the North Division to get rained off against Scotland and 3 of their 8 matches were rained off, none of which were against Durham who topped the group. Essex also amassed 9 points in the FP Trophy, but finished second so qualified and went on to beat Yorkshire in the semis, and beat the same side in their opening Pro40 match. However they are now without a win on the road since 17th June, 6 matches ago, after their 20/20 defeat to Kent on Saturday. Derbyshire are trialling a new screen to block the sun from stopping play tonight, and the weather in Derby is currently glorious so we can be confident of a full game. And in which case, Bet365's 6/4 looks tasty, with Corals as tight as 6/5.
4.10 Derbyshire to beat Essex 6/4 (LOST +20.58 - Derbyshire continued to bat well, only really falling away late on when chasing 304. But Bopara's 112* and 4-52 were the match winners)
Derbyshire have been scoring runs for fun in July. In the tour match against Bangladesh A last week 298-6 in 75 overs in first innings; knocking off 222 for 4 in 35 overs against a useful Northants attack including Hall, van der Wath, Klusener and Boje; 485-7 in just 113 overs, and 278 for 5 in 60 overs against the same attack in a championship game. In the Friends Provident Trophy they missed out on qualifying when they were the only side in the North Division to get rained off against Scotland and 3 of their 8 matches were rained off, none of which were against Durham who topped the group. Essex also amassed 9 points in the FP Trophy, but finished second so qualified and went on to beat Yorkshire in the semis, and beat the same side in their opening Pro40 match. However they are now without a win on the road since 17th June, 6 matches ago, after their 20/20 defeat to Kent on Saturday. Derbyshire are trialling a new screen to block the sun from stopping play tonight, and the weather in Derby is currently glorious so we can be confident of a full game. And in which case, Bet365's 6/4 looks tasty, with Corals as tight as 6/5.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Darts and Baseball
Quiet sporting day but some cracking darts action tonight with the semi's of the World Matchplay.
7.00 Priestley+7.5 vs Taylor 11/10 (LOST +20.81 - 17-8 was the final score. At 15-8 it looked like we'd sneak in but the Power drove home his 105.6 average and won 17-8)
The semi-finals are best of 33, so for this to come in Dennis needs to get 10 legs, and Dennis has won every match by just the minimum necessary 2 legs, while The Power has been blasting opponents away. However, Priestley's winning margins show the tenacity of the Yorkshireman and he wont give up against his old rival tonight until the last double is hit. And The Power wasnt quite up to his own high standards last night - his 3-dart average dipping below 100 for the first time this week, down to a human-like 95. Dennis will take advantage of any slip-ups by the World Number 1, and I fancy he could push Phil closer than the bookies think.
12.05 LA Angels bt Baltimore 10/13 (WON 6-5 +21.58 - 3 runs in the 7th innings almost brought the Orioles back into the game at 5-4 but the Angels saw it home)
This should be a gimme. LA top the West Division of the American League with a 61.4% win ratio and 80% of their last 10. Baltimore made it 3 losses in a row with a 7-1 defeat at home to a Blue Jays side who were less than 50% before last night. The Orioles are 3 from 10 in recent form. So while 10/13 might not be your favourite price, it looks one to take advantage of.
7.00 Priestley+7.5 vs Taylor 11/10 (LOST +20.81 - 17-8 was the final score. At 15-8 it looked like we'd sneak in but the Power drove home his 105.6 average and won 17-8)
The semi-finals are best of 33, so for this to come in Dennis needs to get 10 legs, and Dennis has won every match by just the minimum necessary 2 legs, while The Power has been blasting opponents away. However, Priestley's winning margins show the tenacity of the Yorkshireman and he wont give up against his old rival tonight until the last double is hit. And The Power wasnt quite up to his own high standards last night - his 3-dart average dipping below 100 for the first time this week, down to a human-like 95. Dennis will take advantage of any slip-ups by the World Number 1, and I fancy he could push Phil closer than the bookies think.
12.05 LA Angels bt Baltimore 10/13 (WON 6-5 +21.58 - 3 runs in the 7th innings almost brought the Orioles back into the game at 5-4 but the Angels saw it home)
This should be a gimme. LA top the West Division of the American League with a 61.4% win ratio and 80% of their last 10. Baltimore made it 3 losses in a row with a 7-1 defeat at home to a Blue Jays side who were less than 50% before last night. The Orioles are 3 from 10 in recent form. So while 10/13 might not be your favourite price, it looks one to take advantage of.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Darts
A overall flat day yesterday with neither double coming in. So I'm stepping up for a treble today!
7.10 Taylor, Wade & McDine treble 11/9 (WON +21.81 - Wade easily dispatched an unwell Jones, the Power averaged a ridiculous 109.7 in beating Colin Osborne, and McDine put in another fine performance to win 13-9. Unfortunately for him he plays Taylor in the next round)
I was going to put Kevin McDine up on his own at 4/5, but with these two bankers we can enhance that to odds against. The Power was excellent last night with a 3-dart average of 103.5, and while Steve Beaton pushed him to get to 10-6, The Adonis did post a 3-dart average better than any of the other 14 players yesterday. The Power didnt lose a leg against the throw and despite losing to Osbourne in Bristol, I dont foresee any problems tonight.
James Wade is still waiting for his first match in defence of his title, but won't allow the second round games going on around him to sway him from his task in hand and he should go through 10-5 or 10-6.
Kevin McDine played excellently last night, averaging 96 in defeating Ady Lewis 10-8, having been 4-1 down. He has the big match, TV tournament mentality and while Mark Walsh blew Raymond Scholten away on Sunday, the Tripod didnt score like he is capable of, and has been struggling of late. It should be a cracker and Sid Waddell will be backing his fellow Geordie, and I expect him to sneak through to the last 8.
7.10 Taylor, Wade & McDine treble 11/9 (WON +21.81 - Wade easily dispatched an unwell Jones, the Power averaged a ridiculous 109.7 in beating Colin Osborne, and McDine put in another fine performance to win 13-9. Unfortunately for him he plays Taylor in the next round)
I was going to put Kevin McDine up on his own at 4/5, but with these two bankers we can enhance that to odds against. The Power was excellent last night with a 3-dart average of 103.5, and while Steve Beaton pushed him to get to 10-6, The Adonis did post a 3-dart average better than any of the other 14 players yesterday. The Power didnt lose a leg against the throw and despite losing to Osbourne in Bristol, I dont foresee any problems tonight.
James Wade is still waiting for his first match in defence of his title, but won't allow the second round games going on around him to sway him from his task in hand and he should go through 10-5 or 10-6.
Kevin McDine played excellently last night, averaging 96 in defeating Ady Lewis 10-8, having been 4-1 down. He has the big match, TV tournament mentality and while Mark Walsh blew Raymond Scholten away on Sunday, the Tripod didnt score like he is capable of, and has been struggling of late. It should be a cracker and Sid Waddell will be backing his fellow Geordie, and I expect him to sneak through to the last 8.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Darts, Racing and Baseball
Welcome back. Sorry, been a bit busy of late, but its time to get some more blogs posted and start playing with the McDowell profit. You didn't miss much though - I largely steered clear of The Open with an e/w on Cink and a final afternoon e/w on Poulter. Anyway, we've got darts on again this week, so we'll be getting stuck into the lords of the tungsten.
1.10 Priestley & Painter Double 5/4 (LOST +18.59 - Dennis won 10-8, and Painter recovered from 8-4 down to 8-8, but then fluffed some doubles and lost 10-8)
Dennis Priestley is a fighter, both on the oche and off it as his recent battler with cancer has proved. But now he's over that he's thrown some good darts in recent tournaments, beating James Wade in a recent non-TV event and losing in the semi's of the US Open to The Power. Adrian Gray is no mug, but Priestley should see him off to set up an interesting 2nd round tie with the still out of form Terry Jenkins.
Kevin 'The Artist' Painter showed how good he can be when he made the World Champs semi's last year and averaged 103.68 in Vegas a fortnight ago - which only The Power could beat. He will relish taking on Barney in the 2nd round, so while 1/2 is that enticing, the 5/4 double is worth a decent go.
3.45 Yarmouth Quaroma 3/1 (WON +21.59 - an excellent ride by Frankie McDonald on a good horse who could yet have more improvement in her)
4 runs on turf and has finished 3rd, 1st, 5th and 2nd, so should feature today in what looks to be a match between the favourite Punchin, and our selection. The 2nd by a length last time out was her first step up to 6f from the minimum trip, and she looked to come on for it. Punching has recorded 2 wins from 10 runs and today carries 5lbs higher than his winning mark, so I'm willing to take him on.
5.00 Ayr Casino Night 15/4 (LOST +20.59 - looked like a good day when leading with 2f to go, but then faded badly)
Another 2 horse race on paper, and another one to take on the favourite with. Our salecetion won nicely when made all and staying on over 7f at Beverley in May, for which she went up 6lbs. Since then she has shown little, until tried in cheekpieces last time out and was a 2l second, but a further 7l clear of the rest. She now races off 2lbs lighter than that Beverley win. Bourse also won in May off the same mark of 60 coincidentally, his couple of 3rds from 4 runs has meant he still carries 4lbs more than that win, so hence I'm siding with Casino Night.
12.05am Toronto & Detroit Double 3/1 (LOST +19.59 - Toronto lost 8-3 with the 5th innings being decisive as with 2 outs, the Orioles picked up 2 further runs to lead 5-3 rather than remain tied. Detroit however look to me like World Series potentials now, and battered KC 19-4 with 10 runs in the 8th taking the score to 19-0!)
The battle of the basement in the East Division of the American Laegue tonight with Toronto heading north to Baltimore after a 9-4 victory at division leaders Tampa Bay last night, giving the Blue Jays a 60% win ratio in their last 10 games. Alex Rios found the middle of his bat at last and that could be the key to beating basement side Baltimore who have lost 7 of their last 10 and went down 5-1 at home to Detroit last night. That win for Detroit was laregly down to Justin Verlander only allowing six baserunners and at one point retiring 16 consecutive batters. Their opponents tonight, Kansas City, won a tight encounter last night 8-7 against the White Sox, largely due to a poor first innings from John Danks, who conceded 4 runs. The Tigers wont allow such a start, so I fancy Detroit to make it an away double tonight.
1.10 Priestley & Painter Double 5/4 (LOST +18.59 - Dennis won 10-8, and Painter recovered from 8-4 down to 8-8, but then fluffed some doubles and lost 10-8)
Dennis Priestley is a fighter, both on the oche and off it as his recent battler with cancer has proved. But now he's over that he's thrown some good darts in recent tournaments, beating James Wade in a recent non-TV event and losing in the semi's of the US Open to The Power. Adrian Gray is no mug, but Priestley should see him off to set up an interesting 2nd round tie with the still out of form Terry Jenkins.
Kevin 'The Artist' Painter showed how good he can be when he made the World Champs semi's last year and averaged 103.68 in Vegas a fortnight ago - which only The Power could beat. He will relish taking on Barney in the 2nd round, so while 1/2 is that enticing, the 5/4 double is worth a decent go.
3.45 Yarmouth Quaroma 3/1 (WON +21.59 - an excellent ride by Frankie McDonald on a good horse who could yet have more improvement in her)
4 runs on turf and has finished 3rd, 1st, 5th and 2nd, so should feature today in what looks to be a match between the favourite Punchin, and our selection. The 2nd by a length last time out was her first step up to 6f from the minimum trip, and she looked to come on for it. Punching has recorded 2 wins from 10 runs and today carries 5lbs higher than his winning mark, so I'm willing to take him on.
5.00 Ayr Casino Night 15/4 (LOST +20.59 - looked like a good day when leading with 2f to go, but then faded badly)
Another 2 horse race on paper, and another one to take on the favourite with. Our salecetion won nicely when made all and staying on over 7f at Beverley in May, for which she went up 6lbs. Since then she has shown little, until tried in cheekpieces last time out and was a 2l second, but a further 7l clear of the rest. She now races off 2lbs lighter than that Beverley win. Bourse also won in May off the same mark of 60 coincidentally, his couple of 3rds from 4 runs has meant he still carries 4lbs more than that win, so hence I'm siding with Casino Night.
12.05am Toronto & Detroit Double 3/1 (LOST +19.59 - Toronto lost 8-3 with the 5th innings being decisive as with 2 outs, the Orioles picked up 2 further runs to lead 5-3 rather than remain tied. Detroit however look to me like World Series potentials now, and battered KC 19-4 with 10 runs in the 8th taking the score to 19-0!)
The battle of the basement in the East Division of the American Laegue tonight with Toronto heading north to Baltimore after a 9-4 victory at division leaders Tampa Bay last night, giving the Blue Jays a 60% win ratio in their last 10 games. Alex Rios found the middle of his bat at last and that could be the key to beating basement side Baltimore who have lost 7 of their last 10 and went down 5-1 at home to Detroit last night. That win for Detroit was laregly down to Justin Verlander only allowing six baserunners and at one point retiring 16 consecutive batters. Their opponents tonight, Kansas City, won a tight encounter last night 8-7 against the White Sox, largely due to a poor first innings from John Danks, who conceded 4 runs. The Tigers wont allow such a start, so I fancy Detroit to make it an away double tonight.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Golf, Cricket, Cycling and Racing
Back to proper cricket today and looks like we'll get some decent weather at Lords at last!
9.00 McDowell to win Scottish Open 40/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) (WON +22.59 - A well balanced four rounds with an excellent 3rd round in difficult conditions pushing hiim to the top of the leaderboard. I wouldnt touch the 33/1 for The Open though now)
Picking tournament winners outside of the majors is tough to do on the European Tour these days we so many players capabale and few stand out players - even Ernie isnt up there regularly now. If Phil Mickelson turns up to win he should go close, as he did last year, but his appearance fee may be enough to keep him happy and not push himself too much ahead of The Open. So I'd look for someone with a reason to push hard before the big one next week, but without the pressure of needing to qualify still. The main inspiration therefore has to be those on the cusp of Ryder Cup qualification who are currently in form, particularly if they have course form. Step forward Graeme McDowell. He was 11th here last year, 3rd last week at The London Club and 13th the week before in France, so his game is coming to the boil nicely. He currently occupies th 10th and final automatic spot in Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup side, so a decent performance here could help book his ticket for Louisville.
11.00 South Africa to beat England 13/8 (LOST +21.59 - Graeme Smith's decision to bowl is up there with Nasser in Brisbane and Ponting at Edgbaston. But there second innings has shown how they can still be a big threat in this series)
So this is the big test before the Ashes next summer, and will tell us how much further England have to go to try to repeat 2005. And with the sun shining over London this morning it could be that we get more play than feared earlier in the week. So the draw backpedals for me. Which means that there is only one winner, given how well visiting sides tend to play at Lords. South Africans have all played in English conditions so wont be as naive as the Kiwis, so we can measure the sides man for man. Yes the England bowlers are a decent attack, and will, on average, concede 300-350 in a test match first innings, but its England's inconsistent batting that will make the difference compared to South Africa's strong middle order and decent tail. You can see England all out for 250 much easier than the Bokke, and vice versa for 400+. I can see England having their days in this series and 3/1 the drawn series is interesting, but for game one, I'm siding with Graeme Smith's boys
11.20 Sylvain Chavanel to win Stage 6 of Tour de France e/w 28/1 (LOST +20.59 - when our man went off in a group of 3, it looked good, but the peloton were not letting him go and eventually reeled him in and spat him out the back)
There have been barely any climbs in the Tour so far, but today there are two Category 2 climbs in the last 50kms, which should prevent a sprint finish and see the polka dot jersey contenders to the fore. Having made an attack on day 2, he will be rested and ready for today's assault and will aim to get the climber's jersey back after giving it up last year when his Cofidis team withdrew after one of their riders tested positive.
4.55 Newmarket Northern Dare 9/4 (LOST +19.59 - got blocked when trying to move up a couple of times. I'm putting it down to jockey error - the difference between top and average jock's is not getting boxed in at key moments)
Another handicap good thing, due to go up 5lbs. But these are not always the shoe-ins they are touted as pre-race. However, Northern Dare has been steadily improving all season and his trainer has a cracking record in this race. I was first drawn to his 3 wins in a row from 2001 to 2003, but its better than just that. 14 runners in 8 years have yielded 3 winners, 4 seconds, a thrid, and three fourths - which included the second and third in 2006 and the 1-2 in 2002. So I'm confident this good thing will have every chance.
9.00 McDowell to win Scottish Open 40/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) (WON +22.59 - A well balanced four rounds with an excellent 3rd round in difficult conditions pushing hiim to the top of the leaderboard. I wouldnt touch the 33/1 for The Open though now)
Picking tournament winners outside of the majors is tough to do on the European Tour these days we so many players capabale and few stand out players - even Ernie isnt up there regularly now. If Phil Mickelson turns up to win he should go close, as he did last year, but his appearance fee may be enough to keep him happy and not push himself too much ahead of The Open. So I'd look for someone with a reason to push hard before the big one next week, but without the pressure of needing to qualify still. The main inspiration therefore has to be those on the cusp of Ryder Cup qualification who are currently in form, particularly if they have course form. Step forward Graeme McDowell. He was 11th here last year, 3rd last week at The London Club and 13th the week before in France, so his game is coming to the boil nicely. He currently occupies th 10th and final automatic spot in Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup side, so a decent performance here could help book his ticket for Louisville.
11.00 South Africa to beat England 13/8 (LOST +21.59 - Graeme Smith's decision to bowl is up there with Nasser in Brisbane and Ponting at Edgbaston. But there second innings has shown how they can still be a big threat in this series)
So this is the big test before the Ashes next summer, and will tell us how much further England have to go to try to repeat 2005. And with the sun shining over London this morning it could be that we get more play than feared earlier in the week. So the draw backpedals for me. Which means that there is only one winner, given how well visiting sides tend to play at Lords. South Africans have all played in English conditions so wont be as naive as the Kiwis, so we can measure the sides man for man. Yes the England bowlers are a decent attack, and will, on average, concede 300-350 in a test match first innings, but its England's inconsistent batting that will make the difference compared to South Africa's strong middle order and decent tail. You can see England all out for 250 much easier than the Bokke, and vice versa for 400+. I can see England having their days in this series and 3/1 the drawn series is interesting, but for game one, I'm siding with Graeme Smith's boys
11.20 Sylvain Chavanel to win Stage 6 of Tour de France e/w 28/1 (LOST +20.59 - when our man went off in a group of 3, it looked good, but the peloton were not letting him go and eventually reeled him in and spat him out the back)
There have been barely any climbs in the Tour so far, but today there are two Category 2 climbs in the last 50kms, which should prevent a sprint finish and see the polka dot jersey contenders to the fore. Having made an attack on day 2, he will be rested and ready for today's assault and will aim to get the climber's jersey back after giving it up last year when his Cofidis team withdrew after one of their riders tested positive.
4.55 Newmarket Northern Dare 9/4 (LOST +19.59 - got blocked when trying to move up a couple of times. I'm putting it down to jockey error - the difference between top and average jock's is not getting boxed in at key moments)
Another handicap good thing, due to go up 5lbs. But these are not always the shoe-ins they are touted as pre-race. However, Northern Dare has been steadily improving all season and his trainer has a cracking record in this race. I was first drawn to his 3 wins in a row from 2001 to 2003, but its better than just that. 14 runners in 8 years have yielded 3 winners, 4 seconds, a thrid, and three fourths - which included the second and third in 2006 and the 1-2 in 2002. So I'm confident this good thing will have every chance.
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